Obama says "sanctions". Putin hears "no real action".
Sure there will be some sanctions. But US companies are making money out of the fossil fuel industry in Russia. Any sanctions well be screamed loudly by the US as doing something. Then removed silently when Big Oil speaks to their pet pollies.
The real problem in Russia at present is the aggression is matched by lies, to themselves. It was just made illegal to tell "lies" about WW2. i.e. "Lies" about how the communist party members in Leningrad ate well while others starved. The controlled media in Russia at present is raving about fascists and nazies in Ukraine. Lying is one thing, but lying to oneself is called delusion. Dulusion combined with armies and nukes is not a good thing.
I have little doubt that some of the so called "pro Russian milita" are really spetsnaz from the 2th, 16th brigades and 431 Naval. Ukraine has allowed their military to deteriorate, it appears the pollies preferred to spend taxes on welfare etc and relied on US and Russian guarantees of their borders. Having a strong military does guarantee peace, but having a weak one means you are weak and must accept what the strong demand of you.
They have the basis of a large defence force, but a lot of the equipment they got from the fall of the Soviet Union has been mothballed for years. They were moving from a large conscript force to a professional force. As is typical of pollies they took the savings of removing conscription, but did not reinvest in really funding a professional force. I understand that recruitment for a reinstated national guard has begun but it will take time and money for the cadre to train them up and to unmothball the equipment.
They are capable of storming some buildings vrs "milita" but in the short term Ukraine would have problems stopping a limited Russian offensive designed to take over the eastern provinces.
Russia has a time issue of its own. I understand the end of May is when conscripts that have served their time are released and a new bunch taken in. Of course they could hold them back, but it would be a very clear signal they are moving to a war footing. So will Putin throw the dice and move to "stop the bloodshed, restore peace and protect Russian speakers"?
Sure there will be some sanctions. But US companies are making money out of the fossil fuel industry in Russia. Any sanctions well be screamed loudly by the US as doing something. Then removed silently when Big Oil speaks to their pet pollies.
The real problem in Russia at present is the aggression is matched by lies, to themselves. It was just made illegal to tell "lies" about WW2. i.e. "Lies" about how the communist party members in Leningrad ate well while others starved. The controlled media in Russia at present is raving about fascists and nazies in Ukraine. Lying is one thing, but lying to oneself is called delusion. Dulusion combined with armies and nukes is not a good thing.
I have little doubt that some of the so called "pro Russian milita" are really spetsnaz from the 2th, 16th brigades and 431 Naval. Ukraine has allowed their military to deteriorate, it appears the pollies preferred to spend taxes on welfare etc and relied on US and Russian guarantees of their borders. Having a strong military does guarantee peace, but having a weak one means you are weak and must accept what the strong demand of you.
They have the basis of a large defence force, but a lot of the equipment they got from the fall of the Soviet Union has been mothballed for years. They were moving from a large conscript force to a professional force. As is typical of pollies they took the savings of removing conscription, but did not reinvest in really funding a professional force. I understand that recruitment for a reinstated national guard has begun but it will take time and money for the cadre to train them up and to unmothball the equipment.
They are capable of storming some buildings vrs "milita" but in the short term Ukraine would have problems stopping a limited Russian offensive designed to take over the eastern provinces.
Russia has a time issue of its own. I understand the end of May is when conscripts that have served their time are released and a new bunch taken in. Of course they could hold them back, but it would be a very clear signal they are moving to a war footing. So will Putin throw the dice and move to "stop the bloodshed, restore peace and protect Russian speakers"?
