Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
This can be the unofficial preview if Arcassius wants to do the official one.
2017's second derby is a Fremantle home game. West Coast won the first derby in round 6 after a dominant first half which meant the game was pretty much over at half time. To their discredit, Freo kept kicking the ball to McGovern. This is partly understandable given that The Gov is a diehard Freo fan from birth. This makes him incredibly likable and someone that anyone would love to play kick-to-kick with. Problem was that he was wearing a blue and yellow jumper, which should have set off warning bells but which were for some reason ignored. Freo won the third term by a point and final quarter by 3 but never looked like mounting a challenge.
So what's the form line for both teams in 2017? Both have had fairly similar seasons and only 1 win separates them on the ladder (plus a shitload of percentage). Main difference has been that Freo has played as well away as at home whereas West Coast has dropped their bundle when getting anywhere near Victoria. In terms of recent form, you'd give Freo the nod. They won their last game away against the Kangas and only narrowly lost in the two weeks prior to St Kilda at home (lost in the last minute of the game despite leading all day) and Geelong away (by kicking a point on the siren despite leading for most of the game). West Coast's recent form has been much like a coin flip (L W L W L) having lost at home last week against Port (run off their legs in the final quarter). They just got over the Bulldogs in Melbourne the week prior after having narrowly lost previously to Melbourne at Subiaco.
So where are both teams at? Fremantle are on the public record as implementing a 5 year rebuild. Having won only 4 games last year, members and fans would be quite happy with what they've seen so far in 2017. Freo has blooded 7 debutantes and is consistently fielding one of the youngest and inexperienced side in the AFL every week. Of their younger players, one bloke in particular - Connor Blakely (21) - has already shown the signs of becoming an A grader. Blakely is becoming a valuable addition to Fremantle's existing A graders that are under 30 years old in Fyfe (25), Neale (24), Walters (26), S Hill (27) and B Hill (24). Most promising for Freo is what their kids have shown this year in the AFL and at Peel. They have a large number of new draftees/rookies who are showing real skill and long term potential including Hamling (24), Weller (21), Langdon (21), Hughes (22), Tucker (20), Balic (20), Logue (19), Ryan (21), Nyhuis (20), Cox (18), Grey (21), Deluca (21) and Collins (23). And let's not forget the future 300 game ruckman in Darcy (18) who in only 3 games of AFL has already shown immense talent beyond his years.
Despite a couple of almighty thrashings this year, most games have seen the young Fremantle team compete well despite the occasional mistakes and intensity drops that is the territory for a team chock full of inexperienced players. Freo have already won 7 games for the year, and importantly have won 4 out of 6 games that were decided by under 10 points. They could easily be on 9 wins for the year. While Freo is still a mathematical possibility for finals (and 9 wins would have seen them firmly cemented in the top 8), the reality is that they appear not to be focused on finals this year and for good reason having only just started the rebuild process. To their credit, the Board and coaching staff have their eyes firmly set on becoming a genuine and sustained contender rather than a "bottom of the 8" team. This position has given Lyon the liberty and confidence to do what is necessary to ensure a solid foundation for achieving sustained success in the next 3 years.
Things for West Coast have not been as clear and they seem stuck between the "devil and the deep blue sea". On one hand, they believe they can contend for a flag but their last 2 years has shaken this credibility of this belief. Significant holes in their midfield continues to be a major problem as well as a number of their better players nearing the end of their playing careers (Kennedy, Priddis, Hurn, Mitchell, Le Cras, McKenzie). The devil for West Coast is that they are probably a bottom half of the 8 side but their Board, coach and members are clinging to the hope that their premiership window is open despite the fact that their capacity to deliver appears increasingly unlikely. Not even the return of NicNat is likely to change their trajectory as WC has too many older players who are average and unlikely to improve further, as well as too few younger players that have shown potential to fill the holes in their best 22.
On the other side for West Coast is the deep blue sea - the need for a rebuild. Blind Freddy can see that West Coast needs to head down this path very shortly if they are to have any chance of becoming a genuine and sustained contender. And therein lies their biggest problem - the fact that accepting and acting on this realisation is a hard pill to swallow for the Boards and management of football teams. Too often the head coach loses his job in this process and it would seem that Simpson's job might be on the line should WC not end this year or the next as a genuine contender. Even if West Coast's Board does comes to the realisation that they need a rebuild and backs in their coach to do the job, there are still concerns about the quality of their younger players. Very few of them are breaking down the door to get into the firsts, which unfortunately has meant that their older players usually get to play in the firsts week in and week out. This hasn't been helped by the younger WC players at East Perth looking pretty average all year. Whenever a young player does finally break into the firsts, he seems to lose his spot quickly as the older brigade returns to the seniors after injury or a week or two in the seconds. This revolving door mentality is likely to undermine their development, but will also prevent their draftees/rookies getting sufficient opportunity to show what they can do in the AFL environment. How do you plan for the future, and make informed list management decisions, if you don't know the true potential of your younger players?
So what about derby 46? Who will win and why?
For Fremantle, it seems that they are not chasing finals this year. The key output from derby 46 then would be further refining their game plan, building consistency and getting more games into their young talent. However, for West Coast winning this game is critical to their finals campaign.
On the field, both teams have different strengths. Fremantle's inside and outside midfielders clearly edges West Coast with the likes of Fyfe, Neale, Mundy, Blakely, B Hill, Walters and S Hill being a stronger group than Priddis, Mitchell, Gaff, Shuey, Hutchings, Sheed and Jetta. The ruck battle will be fascinating with young Sean Darcy coming up on his own against Vardy and Lycett (reckon Sean will hold his own again in that battle). Forward and back lines are (again) a different story, with West Coast having significantly better KPPs (Kennedy, Darling, McGovern, Yeo) than Freo (Hamling, Johnson, Kersten and Cox).
Who will win? Probably West Coast given their superior back and forward lines and the fact that this game is a "must win" for them to play finals. But I would't be surprised if the youthful enthusiasm, outside run and spread of Fremantle get them over the line in a close match with Sean Darcy kicking the winning goal.
Prediction: West Coast by 24.
2017's second derby is a Fremantle home game. West Coast won the first derby in round 6 after a dominant first half which meant the game was pretty much over at half time. To their discredit, Freo kept kicking the ball to McGovern. This is partly understandable given that The Gov is a diehard Freo fan from birth. This makes him incredibly likable and someone that anyone would love to play kick-to-kick with. Problem was that he was wearing a blue and yellow jumper, which should have set off warning bells but which were for some reason ignored. Freo won the third term by a point and final quarter by 3 but never looked like mounting a challenge.
So what's the form line for both teams in 2017? Both have had fairly similar seasons and only 1 win separates them on the ladder (plus a shitload of percentage). Main difference has been that Freo has played as well away as at home whereas West Coast has dropped their bundle when getting anywhere near Victoria. In terms of recent form, you'd give Freo the nod. They won their last game away against the Kangas and only narrowly lost in the two weeks prior to St Kilda at home (lost in the last minute of the game despite leading all day) and Geelong away (by kicking a point on the siren despite leading for most of the game). West Coast's recent form has been much like a coin flip (L W L W L) having lost at home last week against Port (run off their legs in the final quarter). They just got over the Bulldogs in Melbourne the week prior after having narrowly lost previously to Melbourne at Subiaco.
So where are both teams at? Fremantle are on the public record as implementing a 5 year rebuild. Having won only 4 games last year, members and fans would be quite happy with what they've seen so far in 2017. Freo has blooded 7 debutantes and is consistently fielding one of the youngest and inexperienced side in the AFL every week. Of their younger players, one bloke in particular - Connor Blakely (21) - has already shown the signs of becoming an A grader. Blakely is becoming a valuable addition to Fremantle's existing A graders that are under 30 years old in Fyfe (25), Neale (24), Walters (26), S Hill (27) and B Hill (24). Most promising for Freo is what their kids have shown this year in the AFL and at Peel. They have a large number of new draftees/rookies who are showing real skill and long term potential including Hamling (24), Weller (21), Langdon (21), Hughes (22), Tucker (20), Balic (20), Logue (19), Ryan (21), Nyhuis (20), Cox (18), Grey (21), Deluca (21) and Collins (23). And let's not forget the future 300 game ruckman in Darcy (18) who in only 3 games of AFL has already shown immense talent beyond his years.
Despite a couple of almighty thrashings this year, most games have seen the young Fremantle team compete well despite the occasional mistakes and intensity drops that is the territory for a team chock full of inexperienced players. Freo have already won 7 games for the year, and importantly have won 4 out of 6 games that were decided by under 10 points. They could easily be on 9 wins for the year. While Freo is still a mathematical possibility for finals (and 9 wins would have seen them firmly cemented in the top 8), the reality is that they appear not to be focused on finals this year and for good reason having only just started the rebuild process. To their credit, the Board and coaching staff have their eyes firmly set on becoming a genuine and sustained contender rather than a "bottom of the 8" team. This position has given Lyon the liberty and confidence to do what is necessary to ensure a solid foundation for achieving sustained success in the next 3 years.
Things for West Coast have not been as clear and they seem stuck between the "devil and the deep blue sea". On one hand, they believe they can contend for a flag but their last 2 years has shaken this credibility of this belief. Significant holes in their midfield continues to be a major problem as well as a number of their better players nearing the end of their playing careers (Kennedy, Priddis, Hurn, Mitchell, Le Cras, McKenzie). The devil for West Coast is that they are probably a bottom half of the 8 side but their Board, coach and members are clinging to the hope that their premiership window is open despite the fact that their capacity to deliver appears increasingly unlikely. Not even the return of NicNat is likely to change their trajectory as WC has too many older players who are average and unlikely to improve further, as well as too few younger players that have shown potential to fill the holes in their best 22.
On the other side for West Coast is the deep blue sea - the need for a rebuild. Blind Freddy can see that West Coast needs to head down this path very shortly if they are to have any chance of becoming a genuine and sustained contender. And therein lies their biggest problem - the fact that accepting and acting on this realisation is a hard pill to swallow for the Boards and management of football teams. Too often the head coach loses his job in this process and it would seem that Simpson's job might be on the line should WC not end this year or the next as a genuine contender. Even if West Coast's Board does comes to the realisation that they need a rebuild and backs in their coach to do the job, there are still concerns about the quality of their younger players. Very few of them are breaking down the door to get into the firsts, which unfortunately has meant that their older players usually get to play in the firsts week in and week out. This hasn't been helped by the younger WC players at East Perth looking pretty average all year. Whenever a young player does finally break into the firsts, he seems to lose his spot quickly as the older brigade returns to the seniors after injury or a week or two in the seconds. This revolving door mentality is likely to undermine their development, but will also prevent their draftees/rookies getting sufficient opportunity to show what they can do in the AFL environment. How do you plan for the future, and make informed list management decisions, if you don't know the true potential of your younger players?
So what about derby 46? Who will win and why?
For Fremantle, it seems that they are not chasing finals this year. The key output from derby 46 then would be further refining their game plan, building consistency and getting more games into their young talent. However, for West Coast winning this game is critical to their finals campaign.
On the field, both teams have different strengths. Fremantle's inside and outside midfielders clearly edges West Coast with the likes of Fyfe, Neale, Mundy, Blakely, B Hill, Walters and S Hill being a stronger group than Priddis, Mitchell, Gaff, Shuey, Hutchings, Sheed and Jetta. The ruck battle will be fascinating with young Sean Darcy coming up on his own against Vardy and Lycett (reckon Sean will hold his own again in that battle). Forward and back lines are (again) a different story, with West Coast having significantly better KPPs (Kennedy, Darling, McGovern, Yeo) than Freo (Hamling, Johnson, Kersten and Cox).
Who will win? Probably West Coast given their superior back and forward lines and the fact that this game is a "must win" for them to play finals. But I would't be surprised if the youthful enthusiasm, outside run and spread of Fremantle get them over the line in a close match with Sean Darcy kicking the winning goal.
Prediction: West Coast by 24.
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