I know we don't usually talk about state by-elections, but this one is particularly interesting on a number of levels so I thought I might try a thread. The by-election has been triggered by the resignation of Nationals MP Michael Johnsen, who has been accused of raping a sex worker.
For those unfamiliar with it, Upper Hunter covers the more northern and western parts of the federal seat of Hunter. This makes the seat even more heavily influenced by mining regions than Joel Fitzgibbon's, with a very big percentage of electors residing in or around the mining towns of Singleton and Muswellbrook.
Upper Hunter has traditionally been a very safe Nationals seat - it has been held by the party for the last 90 years, and for much of the last 3 decades by the very popular George Souris. Souris won 73.3% of the 2PP vote when the O'Farrell government swept to power in 2011, but he retired in 2015 and Johnsen has had trouble replicating his success. In 2019, the Nationals won the seat from Labor with 52.56% of the 2PP - but both major parties faced a strong primary vote challenge from the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers.
Both Berejiklian and Barilaro have come out and said they expect to lose the seat, and that seems fairly likely given the slim margin and the circumstances surrounding Johnsen. The candidate selected by the local preselectors (construction engineer David Layzell) was not the first choice of the state party. He is up against Jeff Drayton from the ALP, a mining union official. Much of the interest surrounds the SFF, who with 22.04% of the vote in 2019 are definitely in the mix to challenge the ALP (28.65% in the same election). They have a strong candidate in Sue Gilroy, head of the Singleton Chamber of Commerce.
The wild card is One Nation, who did not run last time but performed very strongly at the federal election a few months later - picking up 21% of the primary vote in Hunter and almost knocking off Joel Fitzgibbon. Initially it seemed like they would put up their candidate from that election (Stuart Bonds) but internal politics seems to have put paid to that. At this stage it is unclear who ON will run - Mark Latham is being bandied about (as he lives in the area) but it seems unlikely. Stuart Bonds is also threatening to run as an independent, which will put another wrinkle in things.
Very hard to project what is going to happen. The Nationals are going hard for the mining vote - although the ALP candidate is a miner, ALP policy is for a moratorium on new mine openings in the Hunter. ON and SFF have not run against each other previously in this electorate, and you would have to think that there is a fair overlap in their base. Even if they come to some kind of arrangement to lock out the Nats and ALP, minor parties usually suffer badly from preference leakage.
Gun to my head I would say that the minor parties will fragment the anti-Nationals primary vote too much, leaving room for the ALP will sneak over the line. But the preference deals will be very interesting to watch.
For those unfamiliar with it, Upper Hunter covers the more northern and western parts of the federal seat of Hunter. This makes the seat even more heavily influenced by mining regions than Joel Fitzgibbon's, with a very big percentage of electors residing in or around the mining towns of Singleton and Muswellbrook.
Upper Hunter has traditionally been a very safe Nationals seat - it has been held by the party for the last 90 years, and for much of the last 3 decades by the very popular George Souris. Souris won 73.3% of the 2PP vote when the O'Farrell government swept to power in 2011, but he retired in 2015 and Johnsen has had trouble replicating his success. In 2019, the Nationals won the seat from Labor with 52.56% of the 2PP - but both major parties faced a strong primary vote challenge from the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers.
Both Berejiklian and Barilaro have come out and said they expect to lose the seat, and that seems fairly likely given the slim margin and the circumstances surrounding Johnsen. The candidate selected by the local preselectors (construction engineer David Layzell) was not the first choice of the state party. He is up against Jeff Drayton from the ALP, a mining union official. Much of the interest surrounds the SFF, who with 22.04% of the vote in 2019 are definitely in the mix to challenge the ALP (28.65% in the same election). They have a strong candidate in Sue Gilroy, head of the Singleton Chamber of Commerce.
The wild card is One Nation, who did not run last time but performed very strongly at the federal election a few months later - picking up 21% of the primary vote in Hunter and almost knocking off Joel Fitzgibbon. Initially it seemed like they would put up their candidate from that election (Stuart Bonds) but internal politics seems to have put paid to that. At this stage it is unclear who ON will run - Mark Latham is being bandied about (as he lives in the area) but it seems unlikely. Stuart Bonds is also threatening to run as an independent, which will put another wrinkle in things.
Very hard to project what is going to happen. The Nationals are going hard for the mining vote - although the ALP candidate is a miner, ALP policy is for a moratorium on new mine openings in the Hunter. ON and SFF have not run against each other previously in this electorate, and you would have to think that there is a fair overlap in their base. Even if they come to some kind of arrangement to lock out the Nats and ALP, minor parties usually suffer badly from preference leakage.
Gun to my head I would say that the minor parties will fragment the anti-Nationals primary vote too much, leaving room for the ALP will sneak over the line. But the preference deals will be very interesting to watch.
