NSW Upper Hunter By-Election - 22 May 2021

[Number37]

Was the 600 mill well spent?

 

[Vindicater]

Still looking like a NAT-ALP contest after 13% counted.

Rest of the vote too fractured amongst the other 3 on the current count.

The exhaustion rate is massive however so Labor wont get there on preferences.

Nats to take the seat with an eventual swing to Labor of about 0.5% is my guess.

 

[random260]

Was the 600 mill well spent?

If jodi mckay is sacked no. If she stays then 100% yes

 

[Caesar]

Surprised there hasn’t been a bigger swing on preferences to Labor

The exhaustion rate doesn’t speak well about Labor or the Nats

 

[NSWCROW]

We'll never forget you Jodi Macrae

 

[spinynorman]

We'll never forget you Jodi Macrae

A cosmetic change of leaders isn’t going to cut it. Hopefully the Left actually challenge this time for the inevitable ballot between McKay and Minns and actually put up a viable candidate who might inspire some votes rather than the tiresome NSW Right status quo. The ALP is doomed in its current, shitty iteration.

 

[random260]

A cosmetic change of leaders isn’t going to cut it. Hopefully the Left actually challenge this time for the inevitable ballot between McKay and Minns and actually put up a viable candidate who might inspire some votes rather than the tiresome NSW Right status quo. The ALP is doomed in its current, shitty iteration.

Now Now let's not be to rash. Jodi mckay is in an bad environment. She needs to stay. She's be a tireless leader

 

[Kwality]

Primary vote down for the Nats & ALP.

 

[HairyO]

Primary vote down for the Nats & ALP.

Primary votes always drop for the incumbant party.

The Shooters should be the concerned ones.

 

[Christopher Buttersnip]

Labor brand was hunky dory when they won in a landslide in QLD and WA!

But lose a state seat in the deep midnorth of NSW, they haven't won in 111years.

THE END IS NIGH FOR LABOR

Are you all f***wits or what?

The most astute piece I've read on the matter.

By-election beat-up • Peter Brent

Last held by Labor in 1910, Upper Hunter stays in the hands of the Nats after Saturday’s vote

insidestory.org.au

 

[NSWCROW]

Jodi got the tap according to the SMH

 

[spinynorman]

Jodi got the tap according to the SMH

Minns, Park or, God help us, Daley.

Park would be the best option of the three (which is damning with faint praise), but seriously, Labor needs to be willing to be far more bold than this.

 

[Pie eyed]

The most astute piece I've read on the matter.

By-election beat-up • Peter Brent

Last held by Labor in 1910, Upper Hunter stays in the hands of the Nats after Saturday’s vote

insidestory.org.au

I find it goes to the desperation and the shear terror the Libs and the right wing media exhibit that they would go through the masquerade they are at the moment.

I LOL at them.

 

[Caesar]

The most astute piece I've read on the matter.

By-election beat-up • Peter Brent

Last held by Labor in 1910, Upper Hunter stays in the hands of the Nats after Saturday’s vote

insidestory.org.au

I don’t think it was a major catastrophe for the ALP that they didn’t win, but it was a little bit of a missed opportunity

Unfortunately McKay has had a few of those during her time in charge, so I’m not surprised that the indians are getting restless

 

[Baltimore Jack]

National Party Primary Vote in Upper Hunter
2021 – 31.2%
2019 – 34.0%
2015 – 38.9%
2011 – 54.7%
2007 – 60.2%

 

[Ned_Flanders]

National Party Primary Vote in Upper Hunter
2021 – 31.2%
2019 – 34.0%
2015 – 38.9%
2011 – 54.7%
2007 – 60.2%

who's picking up the 30%?

 

[Caesar]

who's picking up the 30%?

Various conservative minor parties and independents. Greens primary vote has dropped through the floor over that period as well (3.4% down from 8.5%), as has Labor (21.3% down from 31.3%). In terms of winners, about 22-24% have voted ON/SFF at the last two elections.

That said, OP is being a little disingenuous in comparing a decline in primary vote from 2007 (3 candidates) to 2021 (13 candidates).

The decline in 2PP and increase in exhaustion rates is probably more instructive. Exhaustion in particular has risen to 30% at the most recent election which (I think) is a new high. Part of that is also a result of the sheer number of candidates, but it does give a further indication of the level of major party dissatisfaction in the electorate.