Some notes about the Day 4 in-play betting last night.
Dustin Johnson drifted from $1.42 out to around to mid $1.80 last night. Cameron Smith went as low as 4/1 in-play. I hedged my bets on Cam Smith at around $7.00, as I just felt he didn't have another gear to go.
The first 5 holes or so DJ, was nervous- as expected, dropped 2 bogeys and I generally thought he would have a hiccup. Like true champions they do, when challenged, find another gear and from there , he never was threatened.
I threw some of my profit betting on hole by hole betting. Think the learning lesson for me about this tournament and majors, are birdies are expected to be hard, and you should do your research hole by hole.
Attached below were roughly the hole by hole betting odds:
Amen Corner (Holes 10-12), Holes 17 and Hole 5 are the difficult ones for Augusta. I also reckon some of the holes priced above evens for Par, I should have had a play on those .
One of the bookie agencies , priced up the 'Hole 2 " odds early wrongly. They priced Dustin Johnson for a birdie or better at $5.50 on Day 1 from memory but changed it on Day 2 onwards around to $1.45 or so.
I made great coin on the couple of days where rounds needed completing early the following morning by backing in the effective clubhouse leaders.
My reasoning was that the guys coming out to finish their rounds early would have more dew and other environmental variables to contend with... making it harder for them to score well.
I don't know if that actually occured (i didn't watch much of the earlier rounds), but I do know that it worked- the clubhouse leaders beat the guys who the markets expected to be steamrolled in the morning by the late finishers.
Got casey as leading after rnd 1 @ 2.27 and then Ancer (1 of 4 tied overnight) as leading after rnd 2 @ a delicious 15.82.