Piggy Smalls
Sepultura rules
- Nov 30, 2018
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Anyone back to venting, the bloody umpires are diabolical this year!
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Roast Vent Here
- Thread starter Moo
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Snuffaluphagus
Moderator
- Sep 10, 2015
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5 of 9 is just winning the ones we should and losing every 50/50 or worst, nup, thats a shit result. Last two games have been acceptable performances at best but winning games not at your best is fine by me.
Dropping only 2 would be fantastic, dropping 3 acceptable, 4 is poor IMO.
Nah, classic case of quality beating quantity. We absolutely deserved to lose that game. If you get high entries but minimal marks inside 50 it means you're wasting it, you're not unlucky at all.
We were never ever winning that game
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It’s easy to have 9 teams on 14 + wins using a ladder predictor on form, but there will be plenty of upsets in reality.
It’s middle-lower teams like Port, Sydney, Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda that we need to have upset wins over teams around us. Those upsets will happen so we are still in full control of our own destiny this far out. If we can’t take care of business and keep banking wins, it won’t matter.
It’s middle-lower teams like Port, Sydney, Melbourne, Carlton and St Kilda that we need to have upset wins over teams around us. Those upsets will happen so we are still in full control of our own destiny this far out. If we can’t take care of business and keep banking wins, it won’t matter.
The dogs are getting a lot of smoke blown up their arse, but their record against top 8 teams is woeful. Flat track bullies.
Today’s results tell you just why there are no guarantees for us or any other team.
Most people have already penciled in wins against our next 2 opponents but (a) they have both already beaten us this year and (b) they both look in decent form today.
Comp is just too even to win all these marginal games.
Unless you are Collingwood
I don't think a team with 14 wins ever misses finals tbh.
Also think it looks like a nine team race now so we'd need to be the worst of those teams to miss out.
Yea, I'm a bit too positive for this thread.
The Round House Drunk
Team Captain
- May 5, 2022
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A draw in the GWS v GC game tomorrow would be great, as would a draw in any other match between two of the top 9 sides.
Teams used to make it with 12 wins regularly before then.
Feels like we’ve had 3-4 really shite teams each year for a few years rather than 1-2 and that’s distorted things a little bit. Still don’t think we miss with 14 wins - either us or someone else will screw up multiple games we don’t expect.
Tbh Gold Coast have some history and signs were there before their bye their history in the second half of seasons might repeat itself.
Their draw is horrendous.
GWS
Melbourne
Eseendon
Collingwood
Adelaide
Brisbane
Lose tomorrow, possibly lose 3 in a row v Collingwood Adelaide and Brisbane.
10-8 leaves them behind the pack.
Unfortunately two wins against Essendon will really help them. Essendon are so injury riddled they'll win as many games as Richmond or West Coast. Still expect them to put up a fight in about half the games but the youth and lack of star power getting selected will ensure most games are lost.
Can't see Essendon genuinely recovering to what I consider their actual level (12th-14th - doesn't sound a huge difference but the difference between this group and the bottom teams is massive). Think they needed this though - they're in no man's land and this gets them a look at some youngsters that can change that.
- Jul 5, 2011
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We've only had 2 years of 23 game home and away seasons though, its definitely possible this year.
- Aug 20, 2010
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There's strong chance it happens this year.
The fact that there is 9 teams clearly better than the rest is actually making an unusual scenario where a side misses finals with a lot of wins even more likely this year.
Those 9 sides are starting to stack wins now more than they normally would.
That’s boosting their likely end of season wins total to be greater than a normal year.
You could see the 9th place side with 13 or 14 wins. Then the side in 10th might only reach 11 wins.
Last year was kind the opposite actually - there was about 12 or 13 sides in contention for the 8 until very late.
Hence how we actually slipped to 10th in the end last year with 12.5 wins.
I think we get to the end of the season and the 9th place team has 11-12 wins tbh.
You'd be safe with 13 wins in a 22 game season with 18 teams. One game doesn't make a whole games difference to that equation.
They've been shite so far but the chances of Sydney, Carlton, Port and even St Kilda causing upsets is massive but I doubt anyone doing a ladder prediction considers that (how can you accurately pick these upsets anyway).
You'd be safe with 13 wins in a 22 game season with 18 teams. One game doesn't make a whole games difference to that equation.
They've been shite so far but the chances of Sydney, Carlton, Port and even St Kilda causing upsets is massive but I doubt anyone doing a ladder prediction considers that (how can you accurately pick these upsets anyway).
Winning 14 games in a 23 games season, is harder to achieve than winning 13 games in a 22 game season.
Therefore it is less probable that a team will miss the finals winning 14 games in a 23 game season, that it is for a team to miss finals winning 13 games in a 22 game season.
In 20 years of history with 22 game seasons, no team has ever missed finals with 13 wins.
Therefore, it will be virtually impossible for a team (in a 23 game season) to miss the finals with 14 wins.
I hope this all makes sense.
Edit: It would be more possible to miss the finals in a 23 game season with 13 wins, though I suspect this would still be statistically unlikely.
Therefore it is less probable that a team will miss the finals winning 14 games in a 23 game season, that it is for a team to miss finals winning 13 games in a 22 game season.
In 20 years of history with 22 game seasons, no team has ever missed finals with 13 wins.
Therefore, it will be virtually impossible for a team (in a 23 game season) to miss the finals with 14 wins.
I hope this all makes sense.
Edit: It would be more possible to miss the finals in a 23 game season with 13 wins, though I suspect this would still be statistically unlikely.
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- Apr 19, 2022
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To make 14 wins means we can only lose 4 more games - with Hawthorn, Collingwood (away), Brisbane, and bulldogs (away) to come.
If we lost all those but won against all the non top 8 teams at home and beat Sydney and port away we'd still get to 14 wins.
But we have bogey teams st Kilda and Carlton to come at home
No wonder I was so mad we dropped early games, still a huge chance to drop out of the 8
If we lost all those but won against all the non top 8 teams at home and beat Sydney and port away we'd still get to 14 wins.
But we have bogey teams st Kilda and Carlton to come at home
No wonder I was so mad we dropped early games, still a huge chance to drop out of the 8
I’ve always hated probability
- Aug 20, 2010
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Yes, but improbable events are always happening.
In a season where the top 9 is a clear level above the rest, an improbable event becomes more probable. It may be the case that a team finishes 9th on 14 wins and the team in 10th is on somewhere between 10 and 12 wins.
The case you're arguing is stupid. I can equally argue no one will ever get struck by lightning but it happens all the time. You're ignoring the data right in front of you to instead focus on historic data which is completely independent to the situation that is unfolding.
It looks increasingly likely that teams in the bottom 9 will fall away further from the top 9, with the exception of Sydney. Unfortunately, we happen to be one of the top 9 who have to play Sydney in the run home. It's our biggest danger game.
Virtually impossible implies there is no mathematical chance.
That’s definitely incorrect as several ladder predictors have shown.
I’d agree there’s a chance that 13 wins still gets a team into the 8. But as a few other posters have said, this clear top 9 that is forming in 2025 is making that less likely each week that passes.
To give you a small example of what could very realistically have transpired last season - if both Carlton and ourselves had won our final games of the season, v Saints and port Adelaide respectively, we would have finished 9th last year on 13.5 wins.
It was that close to happening last year. So it’s absolutely a live chance of shaping that way again for one unlucky team.
We just need to win enough games and try pump our percentage where possible, to ensure it’s not us.
Losing to someone like Collingwood won’t be terminal for us - but let’s not get smashed by 40 or 50 points.