AFL Autopsy Vent here

[THECHAUNCE]

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound and feel free to delete as necessary but I broke down the difference in output between Rounds 1-9 and 10-20 out of curiosity if any Bomber fans are interested in comparing the difference. This was before the Carlton game so I imagine the numbers have dropped again. Ignore the intro and everything else etc, the comparison is about half way down.

As far as I can tell it's a midfield issue:

http://wp.me/p2kfFk-6q

 

[jsd09]

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound and feel free to delete as necessary but I broke down the difference in output between Rounds 1-9 and 10-20 out of curiosity if any Bomber fans are interested in comparing the difference. This was before the Carlton game so I imagine the numbers have dropped again. Ignore the intro and everything else etc, the comparison is about half way down.

As far as I can tell it's a midfield issue:

http://wp.me/p2kfFk-6q

Pretty interesting read and besides his obvious distaste for Essendon it all makes sense, the question is how to fix it?

I personally am not too worried over the last few years we have shown we can match it with the best if we turn up and as the players get more experience and development this consistency will turn in our favour.

 

[laxation]

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound and feel free to delete as necessary but I broke down the difference in output between Rounds 1-9 and 10-20 out of curiosity if any Bomber fans are interested in comparing the difference. This was before the Carlton game so I imagine the numbers have dropped again. Ignore the intro and everything else etc, the comparison is about half way down.

As far as I can tell it's a midfield issue:

http://wp.me/p2kfFk-6q

"Jake Melksham, who has never seen an opposition three-on-one that he didn’t like."
I lolled

-500 effective kicks, -100% efficiency is pretty damning. Not that we needed the numbers to realise it, but wow...

 

[Pweter]

Different set of rules. Also whenever you touch Lenny even slightly.

Not that I think that should be worthy of a suspension.

Beau Waters says hi too....

 

[Slattery_20]

If I wanted to read North supporters potting Essendon, I'd head over to the main board.

 

[gPhonque]

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound and feel free to delete as necessary but I broke down the difference in output between Rounds 1-9 and 10-20 out of curiosity if any Bomber fans are interested in comparing the difference. This was before the Carlton game so I imagine the numbers have dropped again. Ignore the intro and everything else etc, the comparison is about half way down.

As far as I can tell it's a midfield issue:

http://wp.me/p2kfFk-6q

Great read, and pretty much sums up what is wrong with us - our ability and willingness to spread, run, and work hard off the ball.... and our skill level.

WHY they've dropped off, who knows.

As I thought, our contested ball is still ok. We're still winning the ball around the ground (albeit not as much) and we're still getting the ball inside 50 plenty enough. But when we do get the ball, we're just not having the numbers off the ball working hard, and we're shanking it more often that not. (and I lol'd at the Melksham comment too)

Our disposal skills the past few weeks have been as bad as I've ever seen from an AFL side.... including GC and GWS. And this includes everything from handballs under pressure, to kickouts from full back, to simple kicks to targets around the ground, to kicking into the F50, right through to goalkicking accuracy. We're butchering everything. Which is strange, because James Hird is not the kind of person/coach who doesn't value the importance of having AAA+ class skills.

Are we easing up on kicking practice as a result of the soft-tissues? Even if so, that shouldn't cause an entire playing list to just lose their skills in such a short time... these guys have been kicking footballs since they were old enough to walk.

So I don't know what the reason is. But the two things that are clearly related are the uncontested possession stat, and the disposal efficiency stat. When you're not working hard enough off the ball to get to space, then it's harder to a) win an uncontested possession, and b) kick with any kind of efficiency/accuracy.

 

[Essendonia]

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound and feel free to delete as necessary but I broke down the difference in output between Rounds 1-9 and 10-20 out of curiosity if any Bomber fans are interested in comparing the difference. This was before the Carlton game so I imagine the numbers have dropped again. Ignore the intro and everything else etc, the comparison is about half way down.

As far as I can tell it's a midfield issue:

http://wp.me/p2kfFk-6q

Incredible work. Are you the Moneyball guy?

EDIT: Read the final paragraph. **** YOU. Get a life, you loser.

 

[Slattery_20]

There are a few stats I'd really love to see.
Hard to be efficient etc when there aren't good options there.

 

[Essendonia]

There are a few stats I'd really love to see.
Hard to be efficient etc when there aren't good options there.

Spot on, Slatt'N'Twenty.

2nd quarter against Carlton, we manage a clearance in the back pocket and Dempsey is charging through the 50. EVERYONE up field is completely static, and less than a metre from their men, with no-one leading, or in space. Dempsey is subsequently pinged for holding the ball.

If there is one thing I think we have lost, it is simply run. No run to spread, no run to defend, no run to pressure, no run to make options. Funnily enough, it is the one thing you don't need talent/skills to do. Even perceived pressure by being in the vicinity will add a bit of pressure to the opposition.

I don't know, but I assume this year was about mass, with next year about stamina (ie, running with mass). ****, I hope so.

 

[Tommy08]

Surely it's just not a matter of us 'running out of gas'. It just can't be.

I hate to say it, but maybe we've just been found out tactically in a big way

thoughts?

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Surely it's just not a matter of us 'running out of gas'. It just can't be.

I hate to say it, but maybe we've just been found out tactically in a big way

thoughts?

Potentially.

I think it's hard to tell given the fitness of the side, although you would like to see a bit more movement.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I'm not trying to rub salt in the wound and feel free to delete as necessary but I broke down the difference in output between Rounds 1-9 and 10-20 out of curiosity if any Bomber fans are interested in comparing the difference. This was before the Carlton game so I imagine the numbers have dropped again. Ignore the intro and everything else etc, the comparison is about half way down.

As far as I can tell it's a midfield issue:

http://wp.me/p2kfFk-6q

Could it be that teams have worked us out., stopped the outside run, squeezed the middle of the ground.
Tapouts to advantage as two opposition players happy to sit back

 

[THECHAUNCE]

Incredible work. Are you the Moneyball guy?

EDIT: Read the final paragraph. **** YOU. Get a life, you loser.

Haha! I was skeptical about posting the link as there's nothing worse than an outsider having a crack at your club when the chips are down, especially when there's a few cheap shots thrown in.

Essendon is a strange case though. I gave up trying to pinpoint exactly why such a severe drop off has occurred. I'm stumped.

I crapped all over Carlton when they fell over earlier in the year, Melbourne too. It's a bad habit. I need a new hobby.

 

[Essendonia]

Surely it's just not a matter of us 'running out of gas'. It just can't be.

I hate to say it, but maybe we've just been found out tactically in a big way

thoughts?

Shit, I don't know which is worse! Probably, tactics. If we have been out-coached comprehensively in the past two months to this extent, then I'd be mightily peeved. I can understand if the players are struggling to run given that they have played a season 3-5 kgs heavier than ever.

 

[THECHAUNCE]

Could it be that teams have worked us out., stopped the outside run, squeezed the middle of the ground.
Tapouts to advantage as two opposition players happy to sit back

I'd agree with this.

I'd love to see some heatmaps etc and dive into the Champion Data Treasure chest to get a better look at what changed, if anything, game style wise during the two periods. At least then you could see if you kept playing the same game and were figured out, tried something different or weren't executing due to motivation/personnel. Unfortunately the AFL don't allow the general public that information, even upon request. There's roadblocks everywhere. Hence the guesswork.

 

[Essendonia]

Haha! I was skeptical about posting the link as there's nothing worse than an outsider having a crack at your club when the chips are down, especially when there's a few cheap shots thrown in.

Essendon is a strange case though. I gave up trying to pinpoint exactly why such a severe drop off has occurred. I'm stumped.

I crapped all over Carlton when they fell over earlier in the year, Melbourne too. It's a bad habit. I need a new hobby.

It's a great write-up analysis, I'm just defensive over my boys.

If you keep it up, you could almost get paid for it - without the quips, of course. Gotta play the neutrality angle...

 

[Kong]

The warning signs were there against Richmond, when we were prevented from playing (and I quote Hird and Bomber here) "the way we want to play".

Then St Kilda really exploited it, by closing down the corridor, forcing us to go back to take our kicks (slowing down our speed of ball movement), and sitting a player or three in the space where we'd been kicking to players coming up the ground.

Since then, the coaches haven't found a way to combat it, which is extremely worrying.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Essendon is a strange case though. I gave up trying to pinpoint exactly why such a severe drop off has occurred. I'm stumped.

It's a cascade effect. We are dependent on too few in the middle; last year it was Watson and Hocking, now Zaharakis comes into the equation. In his absence Stanton is ineffective, and then on Saturday Howlett's absence leaves Watson utterly defenceless... et cetera.

I suppose what is disheartening is that apart from Howlett's dramatic improvement, we haven't had another piece really fall into place for the midfield like Zaharakis did last year.

 

[Essendonia]

The warning signs were there against Richmond, when we were prevented from playing (and I quote Hird and Bomber here) "the way we want to play".

Then St Kilda really exploited it, by closing down the corridor, forcing us to go back to take our kicks (slowing down our speed of ball movement), and sitting a player or three in the space where we'd been kicking to players coming up the ground.

Since then, the coaches haven't found a way to combat it, which is extremely worrying.

Spot on. Haven't found a way to manufacture the space.

Also, I'm sick of that expression 'the way we want to play'! Hirdy uses it every week.

 

[Vtorians]

Is it possible that the Geel players coached themselves whilst BT enjoyed a smorgasbord in the box from 2007 on & his idea of a game plan is simply out of date.
If he's lacking in tactical nous & Hirdy's still working his own method out, we might need to look for a specialised tactician.

 

[gPhonque]

I hate to say it, but maybe we've just been found out tactically in a big way

thoughts?

Yes, there's no doubt that the opposition have worked out how to stop us.

However, this is becoming a habit. We come out firing early in the year while teams are still sorting out their own games and structures.... and then once teams are more comfortable with their own game, they start shutting us down and not allowing us the space that we're allowed earlier in the year. There's no question that that's a factor.

So two questions:

1. Are we then working as hard as we need to at that point to create the space and run?

2. Are we paying the opposition's game any attention at all? Or are we just trying to "play the way we want to play" each week whilst disregarding the opposition?

Personally, I think it's a bit of both.

 

[Phone]

Surely it's just not a matter of us 'running out of gas'. It just can't be.

I hate to say it, but maybe we've just been found out tactically in a big way

thoughts?

Well I just sorta talked about it in the changes thread, but to me, it seems all season we've been playing russian roulette with our clearances. We put everything into winning it, and if we lose it, we're ****ed. Like, hahha-we-won-the-ball-you-can't-catch-us-now. Early on in the season, we were winning. Now, we're losing. So that's part of the reason. The first Richmond game is probably a really good game for someone with plenty of time to analyse. My memory might be playing tricks on me, but Richmond basically got back into the game over the 3rd and 4th quarter because they started winning the clearances, and we just collapsed. Luckily we fought back too. But that section of the game is probably a good example of our future problems

or my mind is playing tricks on me.

edit: elements of the richmond post-game thread sorta echo what has been said in our post-game threads over the past month, btw, if you wanna check it out: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/round-8-vs-richmond-unwind-here.947546/

 

[Essendonia]

Is it possible that the Geel players coached themselves whilst BT enjoyed a smorgasbord in the box from 2007 on & his idea of a game plan is simply out of date.
If he's lacking in tactical nous & Hirdy's still working his own method out, we might need to look for a specialised tactician.

Took me a while to work out 'BT'. Must say Bomber in future.

 

[Oh Tayteridge]

Let's give the coach more than a single full season to get the team where he wants it. Continuity is central to success and we'll be enjoying plenty of it in coming years.

 

[Vtorians]

Spot on. Haven't found a way to manufacture the space.

Also, I'm sick of that expression 'the way we want to play'! Hirdy uses it every week.

This shits me as well (seems to be a convenient out for the coaches) & after 6 weeks of uncompetitive shit, their only solution was to "get back to the way we want to play" (play on quickly at all costs & hope for the best, seems to be the very basic plan).
It really is starting to point to a lack of or outdated tactics, an overall fitness base that's way too low for a full AFL season & a few players in our best 22 not quite being up to it when the heats applied.