Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

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MVille Swan

Senior List
Aug 13, 2016
248
502
Inner West
AFL Club
Sydney
At the current rate we are due to hit 70% first dose in 4 days (https://covidlive.com.au/vic). We should get some modest easing then - 10km limit the most notable I think.

As for ending lockdown, I speculate that won't come until 80% double dosed, which is harder to predict (function of first doses and what intervals are used)
We are sitting at 40.8% double dose right now, which we sat at for first doses around the start of August (https://chrisbillington.net/aus_vaccinations.html#state). So based on that we should reach 80% double dose about 6 weeks after hitting it for first doses. We are currently projected to hit that in 16 days
I think the issue will be getting to 80% (of 16 and overs). That translates into around 64% of the total population. Very few countries around
the world have actually reached that. NSW is ahead of Victoria now but I'd expect the gap to close as the case/death numbers in Vic increase.
But when they stop increasing so will the vaccination numbers.
Here in Sydney I don't think it's taken people very long to get a bit blase about 1200-1500 cases and 3-10 deaths every day and the number
of vaccinations is increasing every week, but at a lower rate of increase than a few weeks ago. Because the lockdowns mean different things
in different states, easing of restrictions doesn't mean as much in some states. I think in the end 80% will become 70% as the people of the
two most populous states (NSW & Vic with a combined 60% of Australia's population) will be well and truly over the lockdowns in two months
time and the political leaders on both sides will be very aware of that if they aren't already.
 

Satan

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 16, 2004
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Fitzroy North community school principal has been encouraging all children to attend (not just those of essential workers).

Now has 30 person outbreak. Their Covid-19 information page is......interesting:

Bloke is moron , quotes british schools were reopened on 8th march with a low adult vaccination rate as proof that schools should be reopened here Before delta hit kids were hardly effected . Now they are effected.
8C69C492-3078-46A6-B437-5CEE5520D24F.png
 

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owen87

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 23, 2016
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Same school was trying to suggest to the government that their teachers shouldn't be required to have a teaching degree.


That's what $16,000 per year buys you.

I've always thought MSM education was problematic, I'm glad they're offering alternative education where they can learn that Maths is an NWO conspiracy funded by Gates and BigPharma alongside BigMaths.

And don't even get me STARTED on the farce that is BigPhysics.
 

swingdog

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 3, 2007
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I've always thought MSM education was problematic, I'm glad they're offering alternative education where they can learn that Maths is an NWO conspiracy funded by Gates and BigPharma alongside BigMaths.

And don't even get me STARTED on the farce that is BigPhysics.
BigMaths definitely had it in for me at school.
 

Red Black and Blue

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Oct 1, 2006
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I know the wife, he’s single vaxxed high level sportsman.
This is where I don’t get the fccc protocol hate. Give the guy something that might lessen symptoms/duration and is very safe.

edit: single vaxx not double.
 
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The 747

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 19, 2008
21,416
25,264
Melbourne
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Geelong

I know the wife, he’s double vaxxed, high level sportsman.
This is where I don’t get the fccc protocol hate. Give the guy something that might lessen symptoms/duration and is very safe.
If he is double vaxxed why does the article not mention that? It is a fairly important point.
 

Taylor

Community Leader
Jul 16, 2009
56,085
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Are you referring to the construction industry or the north and western suburbs of Melbourne?
I was referring to the construction industry. That the construction industry employs a lot of particularly men of a ethnic minority who aren't on board with covid management is purely a coincidence.
 

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mattpolo8

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Sep 25, 2012
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You can still work in hospitality and retail though. The main difference between the regular operation of these industries and that of construction is the customers, not the workers. That's why stores are allowed to be open for click and collect, and restaurants open for takeaway.
Thats funny. My second job is hospitality and I'm not working. I would go as far as saying only around 15-20% of all of hospitality is currently open for takeaway, and further to that, most would be running on salary staff only.
 

HTT

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Sep 13, 2015
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Thats funny. My second job is hospitality and I'm not working. I would go as far as saying only around 15-20% of all of hospitality is currently open for takeaway, and further to that, most would be running on salary staff only.
I didn't say it was necessarily economic to be open
 

deck

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Aug 7, 2004
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Bloke is moron , quotes british schools were reopened on 8th march with a low adult vaccination rate as proof that schools should be reopened here Before delta hit kids were hardly effected . Now they are effected.
He was also quoted as saying "the kids are more likely to be hit by a car than catch covid". Must be a lot of kids who have been hit by cars at that school.
 

deck

Premiership Player
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That's not my experience.

They're all open if the property is vacant. If it's not, then only emergency work can be done.
And even then, they're are restrictions in terms of people allowed on-site etc.

Very similar to restaurants and cafes really.
My work can't go in occupied houses but can do outside work. But we have only been cleared for outdoor work in the last week. Prior to that most were at home as we had no vacants to work in.
 

Ice-Wolf

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Sep 19, 2007
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He was also quoted as saying "the kids are more likely to be hit by a car than catch covid". Must be a lot of kids who have been hit by cars at that school.
Came across as a "rules lawyer" type as well in his interview, I'm sure the paper trail will all be perfectly legal, after the correspondence that got him in a little trouble the first time.
 

Visions

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 2, 2007
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I think the issue will be getting to 80% (of 16 and overs). That translates into around 64% of the total population. Very few countries around
the world have actually reached that. NSW is ahead of Victoria now but I'd expect the gap to close as the case/death numbers in Vic increase.
But when they stop increasing so will the vaccination numbers.
Here in Sydney I don't think it's taken people very long to get a bit blase about 1200-1500 cases and 3-10 deaths every day and the number
of vaccinations is increasing every week, but at a lower rate of increase than a few weeks ago. Because the lockdowns mean different things
in different states, easing of restrictions doesn't mean as much in some states. I think in the end 80% will become 70% as the people of the
two most populous states (NSW & Vic with a combined 60% of Australia's population) will be well and truly over the lockdowns in two months
time and the political leaders on both sides will be very aware of that if they aren't already.
Getting to 80% Australia wide will be dependent on QLD and WA.

NSW is almost there on 1st doses and you would expect Victoria to also hit it. To get these two states to 80% means another 800,000 people getting jabbed (80,000 and 720,000 respectively) which brings up the overall Australian percentage to 72% (you would assume anyone who has one dose would get the second).

Would leave Australia 1.7 million people short of the 80% target. QLD is currently 950,000 people short of getting to 80% and WA is 420,000 short. SA is 300,000 short but they seem more willing so far.

Will come down to whether the people in QLD and WA really want to open up fully or not and are enticed enough.
 

TheGreatGrundy

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 21, 2008
20,089
22,156
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Anyone seen any evidence of police checks/blocks and the use of number recognition technology to apprehend motorists driving further than 5km from home in Metropolitan Melbourne?
 

Bazzar

Hall of Famer
May 8, 2007
48,254
70,176
AFL Club
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Should also be noted that the 15 year old died of meningitis, and the male in his 20's recently reported as dying from covid actually died of a heart attack and not covid related. That was in the just released coroner's report . Shame Brett refused to clarify that when quizzed in yesterday's presser.

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