Victorian independence - is it inevitable?

Remove this Banner Ad

Log in to remove this ad.

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
Chinese exporters
We can still supply them with raw materials for battery technology, semiconductors, etc. We can even become part of the value-add chain, which is being explored with the US as they try to find a way to be less reliant on China. Of course, Victoria doesn’t really have any critical mineral resources so they’re excluded from this discussion.
 

Ned_Flanders

Premium Platinum
Aug 22, 2009
71,316
130,578
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76'ers
We can still supply them with raw materials for battery technology, semiconductors, etc. We can even become part of the value-add chain, which is being explored with the US as they try to find a way to be less reliant on China. Of course, Victoria doesn’t really have any critical mineral resources so they’re excluded from this discussion.
Look up how chain of custody works.

Chinese manufacturers have to prove not just their manufacturing complies, but their supply chain. Manufacturers are already warning suppliers they will need to start transitioning to be compliant.
 

Johnny Bananas

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2010
9,072
12,094
A sugar refinery
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
A lot of California’s capital enterprise was established when it was strongly Republican.
Please explain. California has had a mix of Republican and Democrat governance and support since at least the 1930s until the 1990s.

If they became wholly Democrat, with Democratic increases to taxes, etc, you’d likely see capital depart for more accomodating jurisdictions.
You're aware the Democrats control both houses of legislature in California and have done almost continuously since 1970, right? Combined with having many Democrat governors since then, they've been able to levy whatever taxes they want. And despite having higher taxes than other states, Silicon Valley has not departed en masse, nor have other high-tech industries, because the pool of labour and services available in California isn't easily matched anywhere else. Texas is probably the only challenger on that front, and its social conservatism is repelling a lot of people at the moment. Regardless, there is no massive capital flight from California, they're doing just fine after Jerry Brown returned and solved the budget issues.
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
Please explain. California has had a mix of Republican and Democrat governance and support since at least the 1930s until the 1990s.
Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and various other industries were founded when California was far more right leaning. As the state has become more progressive, the divide between rich and poor has exploded, while many people live close to favela conditions. San Francisco for example is one of the most progressive cities in the world and has for the last five years struggled to solve the problem of public defecation.

Hard to see how a progressive Californian country with its own income taxes and currency could do any better.
 

Johnny Bananas

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2010
9,072
12,094
A sugar refinery
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and various other industries were founded when California was far more right leaning.
Citation needed. Hollywood was founded in the 1910s and California voted for a Democrat in the 1916 presidential election (on top of which, parties back then bore little resemblance ideologically to what they do now). Silicon Valley was founded in the 50s and 60s around the time Pat Brown was governor, and got a second wind in the early 80s around the time Jerry Brown was governor. While California voted strongly for Republicans in Presidential elections around these eras, I'd chalk that up more to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan being the nominees, both of them being from California. The home state effect in presidential elections is well-known.

So I wouldn't say California was right leaning, it was politically neutral, sometime favouring one party, sometimes favouring another.

As the state has become more progressive, the divide between rich and poor has exploded
Yes, due to the success of businesses and limits on taxation. California voters drastically cut their own property tax in the late 70s and this had big flow-on effects in terms of inequality.

San Francisco for example is one of the most progressive cities in the world and has for the last five years struggled to solve the problem of public defecation.
So has Paris. What's your point?

Hard to see how a progressive Californian country with its own income taxes and currency could do any better.
You know they already have their own state income taxes, right?
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
Citation needed. Hollywood was founded in the 1910s and California voted for a Democrat in the 1916 presidential election (on top of which, parties back then bore little resemblance ideologically to what they do now). Silicon Valley was founded in the 50s and 60s around the time Pat Brown was governor, and got a second wind in the early 80s around the time Jerry Brown was governor. While California voted strongly for Republicans in Presidential elections around these eras, I'd chalk that up more to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan being the nominees, both of them being from California. The home state effect in presidential elections is well-known.

So I wouldn't say California was right leaning, it was politically neutral, sometime favouring one party, sometimes favouring another.
I said it was more right-leaning then, not right-leaning. This was a state that elected Reagan as governor, unthinkable now. Now it is functionally a one-party state.

Yes, due to the success of businesses and limits on taxation. California voters drastically cut their own property tax in the late 70s and this had big flow-on effects in terms of inequality.
Deprivation is rife throughout progressive cities like New York and Philadelphia, which has nothing to do with Proposition 13.

So has Paris. What's your point?
Paris is also dysfunctional.

You know they already have their own state income taxes, right?
Yes, but there is a difference between that and the level of taxes required to support a nation state, eg backing a currency, funding a military, supporting a welfare state. California is already one of the highest taxing parts of the US, with a polity that leans extremely progressive, with increasingly Latin American demographics, what would a country like that look like?
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
Look up how chain of custody works.

Chinese manufacturers have to prove not just their manufacturing complies, but their supply chain. Manufacturers are already warning suppliers they will need to start transitioning to be compliant.
What does this have to with the supply of lithium, copper etc? Where is the EU going to get those raw materials? Start plundering Africa again?
 

Ned_Flanders

Premium Platinum
Aug 22, 2009
71,316
130,578
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76'ers
What does this have to with the supply of lithium, copper etc? Where is the EU going to get those raw materials? Start plundering Africa again?
they just want to make sure that the cost of carbon and the like is being captured.

if we wont do it, they will do it for us (and i'd rather pay a carbon tax to canberra than a carbon tariff to Brussels)
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
they just want to make sure that the cost of carbon and the like is being captured.

if we wont do it, they will do it for us (and i'd rather pay a carbon tax to canberra than a carbon tariff to Brussels)
Seems extraordinarily unworkable. Will they have inspectors making sure what ore blends from which sources are going into Chinese refineries and smelters? Maybe the EU could come up with a blockchain for this.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Johnny Bananas

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2010
9,072
12,094
A sugar refinery
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I said it was more right-leaning then, not right-leaning. This was a state that elected Reagan as governor, unthinkable now. Now it is functionally a one-party state.
Then why did they elect another Republican former actor as governor this century?

Deprivation is rife throughout progressive cities like New York and Philadelphia, which has nothing to do with Proposition 13.
Deprivation is even more rife in Republican-voting states like Mississippi. This is America, it's a land with a lot of poverty, and places with lots of people will have their share.

Paris is also dysfunctional.
So? What does that have to do with capital flight?

Yes, but there is a difference between that and the level of taxes required to support a nation state, eg backing a currency, funding a military, supporting a welfare state. California is already one of the highest taxing parts of the US, with a polity that leans extremely progressive, with increasingly Latin American demographics, what would a country like that look like?
Canada, minus the Latinos. Why is the Latino population an issue?
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
Then why did they elect another Republican former actor as governor this century?
You mean nearly 20 years ago? Schwarzenegger's politics were nothing like Reagan's.


Deprivation is even more rife in Republican-voting states like Mississippi. This is America, it's a land with a lot of poverty, and places with lots of people will have their share.
Nowhere is as bad as skid rows in LA, Philly, New York, etc.

So? What does that have to do with capital flight?
Europe as a whole is not a place with a lot of economic dynamism.
Canada, minus the Latinos. Why is the Latino population an issue?
Latin American leftism is by-and-large very economically unsuccessful.
 

Ned_Flanders

Premium Platinum
Aug 22, 2009
71,316
130,578
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76'ers
And has this stopped illegal logging & illegal fishing? You know the answer to that.
its massively reduced it. USA/EU/JP/AU were all buying the illegal sh*t, mixing it with some good stuff, and then claiming its all good

now to make the claim, retailers (and some govts inc ours) expect them to back it up with evidence

you're stuck in the 1980's
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
its massively reduced it. USA/EU/JP/AU were all buying the illegal sh*t, mixing it with some good stuff, and then claiming its all good

now to make the claim, retailers (and some govts inc ours) expect them to back it up with evidence

you're stuck in the 1980's
Yes, now China buys all the “illegal sh*t”, thereby changing nothing.

Now if you think the major exporter of lithium (as well as supplier and source of other critical minerals) is going to be sanctioned as the world transitions to renewables you’re mad.
 

Ned_Flanders

Premium Platinum
Aug 22, 2009
71,316
130,578
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76'ers
Yes, now China buys all the “illegal sh*t”, thereby changing nothing.

Now if you think the major exporter of lithium (as well as supplier and source of other critical minerals) is going to be sanctioned as the world transitions to renewables you’re mad.
you are clearly showing you have no idea of how chain of custody works. if chinese factories cannot prove they sourced the mats as claimed, they dont get the endorsement they need to sell their product to their buyers.

again, you're living in the 1980's, and you think the EU and everyone else will let us do whatever we want because "straya"
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
you are clearly showing you have no idea of how chain of custody works. if chinese factories cannot prove they sourced the mats as claimed, they dont get the endorsement they need to sell their product to their buyers.

again, you're living in the 1980's, and you think the EU and everyone else will let us do whatever we want because "straya"
The EU won’t have a choice when the demand for critical minerals explodes. Market realities will override their bureaucratic imposition.
 

Michael Corleone

Senior List
Sep 30, 2021
168
247
AFL Club
Fremantle
chinese firms are already acting to tell their suppliers to comply

are you one of these idiots who thinks china is still paying USD 200/mt for iron becauase "straya"?
No, I’m one of those people who knows how insane the demand for critical minerals will be in the next 30 years and that Australia will be the most important suppliers of them, which is why the US govt is securing the cooperation of our mineral industry in their strategic interest.
 

Ned_Flanders

Premium Platinum
Aug 22, 2009
71,316
130,578
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76'ers
No, I’m one of those people who knows how insane the demand for critical minerals will be in the next 30 years and that Australia will be the most important suppliers of them, which is why the US govt is securing the cooperation of our mineral industry in their strategic interest.
Again, is the USA on the EU Commission?
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad