Victorian independence - is it inevitable?

Remove this Banner Ad

Geelong_Sicko

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 11, 2007
19,283
17,428
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
They do realise there would be no AFL Grand Final if Victoria was independent.

At least Victorians will finally get in the test team
The AFL could still be the AFL and have a Victorian team - don't forget Australia is both a nation AND a continent. The 'Australian' Football League would become 'Australian' in a continental sense rather than a strictly national one.

And the sport would finally become a truly international one!!
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Caesar

Ex-Huckleberry
Mar 3, 2005
27,379
13,189
Tombstone, AZ
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Great post. Last PM born in Victoria was Fraser in ... 1930.
'Born' is not really a great metric, Gillard was for all intents and purposes a Victorian PM
If you regard being supportive of gay marriage as a barometer of social progressivism, then there's a real case to be made that NSW has become more socon than QLD.
I don't think that really stacks up when you look at the detail

VoteCompass rated all 151 federal electorates from least to most conservative prior to the 2019 election. If you bucket them into deciles (1 being the ~15 most conservative electorates in the country, 10 being the ~15 least conservative), this is where NSW and Queensland stand:

1633409562713.png


Still a stark contrast, I think
 

Nickoo

Norm Smith Medallist
May 13, 2015
6,335
5,779
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory
They cut us off last year already
******* dangerous place - authoritarian dystopia - absolute embarrassment especially with all the advice Dan gives everyone. I see his other mate Ardern has given up elimination as well. The damage done in pursuit of ideology.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 

Nickoo

Norm Smith Medallist
May 13, 2015
6,335
5,779
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory
'Born' is not really a great metric, Gillard was for all intents and purposes a Victorian PM

I don't think that really stacks up when you look at the detail

VoteCompass rated all 151 federal electorates from least to most conservative prior to the 2019 election. If you bucket them into deciles (1 being the ~15 most conservative electorates in the country, 10 being the ~15 least conservative), this is where NSW and Queensland stand:

View attachment 1253308

Still a stark contrast, I think
Oh my god.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

DaRick

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 12, 2008
6,058
5,263
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
(See avatar)
'Born' is not really a great metric, Gillard was for all intents and purposes a Victorian PM

I don't think that really stacks up when you look at the detail

VoteCompass rated all 151 federal electorates from least to most conservative prior to the 2019 election. If you bucket them into deciles (1 being the ~15 most conservative electorates in the country, 10 being the ~15 least conservative), this is where NSW and Queensland stand:

View attachment 1253308

Still a stark contrast, I think
Would be affected greatly by the blue-ribbon areas of East Sydney, which are certainly much more socially progressive than the rest of the state.

Similarly, the areas outside of Brisbane (particularly the interior and the central coast) affect QLD's ratings, since Maranoa is to conservativism what Batman is to progressivism.

Also, how would one define 'conservatism' and 'progressive' in the context of that survey, anyway? Queenslanders were generally less sympathetic to banning live export and reducing mining, not for ideological reasons but for pragmatic ones (i.e. they're trying to make a living). If those activities (say) went on in Victoria, they would look more 'conservative' than they are judging by that survey's metrics.
 

Caesar

Ex-Huckleberry
Mar 3, 2005
27,379
13,189
Tombstone, AZ
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Would be affected greatly by the blue-ribbon areas of East Sydney, which are certainly much more socially progressive than the rest of the state.

Similarly, the areas outside of Brisbane (particularly the interior and the central coast) affect QLD's ratings, since Maranoa is to conservativism what Batman is to progressivism.
I think you are overstating things. Even the most liberal Queensland electorate (Griffith) is more conservative than the majority of NSW electorates

Also, how would one define 'conservatism' and 'progressive' in the context of that survey, anyway? Queenslanders were generally less sympathetic to banning live export and reducing mining, not for ideological reasons but for pragmatic ones (i.e. they're trying to make a living). If those activities (say) went on in Victoria, they would look more 'conservative' than they are judging by that survey's metrics.
The definition is in the article - a combination of social conservatism and right wing economics

Given that Queensland is not exactly known for being a hotbed of the Austrian school, I think it’s pretty safe to assume that they’re scoring high on socially conservative voters
 

DaRick

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 12, 2008
6,058
5,263
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
(See avatar)
I think you are overstating things. Even the most liberal Queensland electorate (Griffith) is more conservative than the majority of NSW electorates
Yeah but how do you define 'economically conservative' in this context? For example, that survey placed emphasis on franking credits when deciding whether someone was more economically conservative, and many in SE QLD were scared off by the ALP RE franking credits.

But I would regard that as Queenslanders acting in accordance with their perceived interests, rather than being inherently right-wing. As John Howard, Paul Keating and Tony Abbott found out, Queenslanders are not inherently fond of out-of-state types from either the ALP or LNP.

The definition is in the article - a combination of social conservatism and right wing economics
Yeah, but "I want to keep my franking credits" suggests self-interest, rather than an inherent fondness of right-wing economics. Queenslanders seem to be more pragmatic than Victorians in this regard, with Bob Katter having long been the apogee of pragmatism (yes, I know he's lost his touch lately).

Given that Queensland is not exactly known for being a hotbed of the Austrian school, I think it’s pretty safe to assume that they’re scoring high on socially conservative voters
Yes, particularly outside of Brisbane. But again, while I sympathise with banning live exports and phasing out coal, it's not in the interests of people from the Central Coast to support phasing out those things because for many its their livelihood, so by supporting those issues, they appear more so-con than they actually are.

EDIT: My take on someone like Katter is that he is (or was) a Menzies conservative - Keynesian + protectionist + very so-con. Hanson's a different breed - just a reactionary who largely agrees with the LNP platform.
 

Johnny Bananas

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 10, 2010
9,072
12,094
A sugar refinery
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Yes, particularly outside of Brisbane. But again, while I sympathise with banning live exports and phasing out coal, it's not in the interests of people from the Central Coast to support phasing out those things because for many its their livelihood, so by supporting those issues, they appear more so-con than they actually are.
Why do you think promises to invest large amounts of money into green energy projects in these areas haven't resonated with the locals? There's always some reluctance to rock the boat when the status quo is working for them, but surely at least some of them must recognise they're selling Kodak cameras and the world is slowly entering the digital camera age.

By the way, is the term "Central Coast" commonly used in reference to Central Queensland? I've only ever heard it used when referring to the area between Sydney and Newcastle.
 

Caesar

Ex-Huckleberry
Mar 3, 2005
27,379
13,189
Tombstone, AZ
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
But I would regard that as Queenslanders acting in accordance with their perceived interests, rather than being inherently right-wing.
If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck

Of course there are a multitude of factors at the micro level, but when you look at the two dimensional vote compass I don’t see how you can get around the fact that Queenslanders are absurdly socially conservative

QLD is a way more conservative state than NSW, any way you slice it
 

DaRick

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 12, 2008
6,058
5,263
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
(See avatar)
Why do you think promises to invest large amounts of money into green energy projects in these areas haven't resonated with the locals? There's always some reluctance to rock the boat when the status quo is working for them, but surely at least some of them must recognise they're selling Kodak cameras and the world is slowly entering the digital camera age.

By the way, is the term "Central Coast" commonly used in reference to Central Queensland? I've only ever heard it used when referring to the area between Sydney and Newcastle.
As much as I agree that selling coal mines today is like selling Kodak/Fujifilm reels circa 2000, coal mines are perceived as more feasible 'in the moment' whereas renewables are still perceived as 'in the future'.

Australians in general are not long-range thinkers, and I don't see that the good people of Flynn etc. are any different.

Short-term pragmatism is driving their beliefs, along with a lack of proper education regarding renewables and their benefits. For the moment, they see renewables as 'pie in the sky' disruptors, whatever the reality of the situation really is.

I've used Central Coast as a lazy, off-hand phrase to refer to places like Gladstone and Rockhampton - places which are no further north than the Tropic of Capricorn but are still certainly not in SE QLD.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck

Of course there are a multitude of factors at the micro level, but when you look at the two dimensional vote compass I don’t see how you can get around the fact that Queenslanders are absurdly socially conservative

QLD is a way more conservative state than NSW, any way you slice it
I've seen that compass, and there are a few issues I have with it:

1) If you take out the few outliers (Batman/Maranoa), then it seems that most Australian electorates congregate fairly closely to the centre.

2) Most Australians are around the political centre, but are also somewhat disengaged politically, so the conviction with which they hold their purported views is very questionable. For instance, Petrie (my electorate) is supposedly centre-right but is somewhat disengaged politically and voted for Julia Gillard. Voters in the likes of Dickson care so little for political issues that they'd probably just vote for whomever in practice.

3) I suspect that 'banning live export' and being 'anti-renewables' were treated as 'social issues' for the purposes of this survey, but from the POV of those in areas like Flynn/Capricornia/FNQ, they're more economic issues than anything else. If you rely on something for your lifeblood, then of course you'd favour it. If these things happened to be going down in (say) VIC, I daresay they'd look more 'socially conservative' than they actually are.

4) Even a decade ago, I would agree that QLD was more conservative, but the relatively high percentage of 'NO' votes in NSW for gay marriage (which is unambiguously a social issue) makes that proposition rather questionable nowadays. Some have dismissed the YES votes for gay marriage as being down to personal factors, but why couldn't such 'personal factors' have increased the YES vote in NSW as well?

Having ALP state governments in charge of QLD for most of the past 30 years (something which has not happened in NSW), plus Brisbane's population increasing markedly relative to the rest of the state, has definitely shifted QLD in a more progressive direction. Meanwhile, while Sydney has definitely expended, NSW have introduced more socially conservative migration than Brisbane has (from China/India/Vietnam), and have had both ALP and L/NP governments in charge - not to mention that the more hardcore Christian sects (Pentacostalism) seem to have taken off down there in a way they haven't in Brisbane despite the latter's greater historical religiosity, and have had an undue influence on the NSW L/NP as a result.

Put simply, if QLD was decidedly more socon than NSW, I would expect that to be reflected in the plebiscite results for what is decidedly a socially progressive issue. However, it isn't, which brings your proposition, and the results from that political compass somewhat into question.
 

DaRick

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 12, 2008
6,058
5,263
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
(See avatar)
Highly specious to extrapolate so much from one vote on one issue given the weight of evidence to the contrary
That 'one issue', however, is much more unambiguously a socially progressive issue than those posited in the political compass, wherein I suspect the answers given often had more to do with pragmatic economic concerns than social ones (your 'weight of evidence'). Queenslanders are defined by permanent interests, not permanent ideologies or friends.

If QLD and NSW were neck and neck in the YES vote, I'd be more inclined to agree, but they weren't.

But anyway, we'll agree to disagree on this one.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad