Victorian independence - is it inevitable?

[Michael Corleone]

Again, is the USA on the EU Commission?

Who cares about the EU? They’re a growing irrelevancy. By 2050, the population will have shrunk relative to the rest of the world, and have the oldest demographics of any continent.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Who cares about the EU? They’re a growing irrelevancy. By 2050, the population will have shrunk relative to the rest of the world, and have the oldest demographics of any continent.

The fact Chinese factories are already gearing to change shows they care

You're deluded if you think Australia can continue to rape the environment and get a pass from the rest of the world

 

[Michael Corleone]

The fact Chinese factories are already gearing to change shows they care

You're deluded if you think Australia can continue to rape the environment and get a pass from the rest of the world

“Rape the environment”—do you realise how much more mining there will need to be to transition from fossil fuels? It’s enormous. Everyone from Gina to Twiggy is gearing up for the next boom in hard rock mining.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

“Rape the environment”—do you realise how much more mining there will need to be to transition from fossil fuels? It’s enormous. Everyone from Gina to Twiggy is gearing up for the next boom in hard rock mining.

Yes, but you need to read up on the issues of mining rare earth minerals. There is a reason the Australian deposits haven't been exploited, and they have been mostly from China (till now). It's very messy mining these, and is a lot more difficult than digging up coal and iron

 

[Michael Corleone]

Yes, but you need to read up on the issues of mining rare earth minerals. There is a reason the Australian deposits haven't been exploited, and they have been mostly from China (till now). It's very messy mining these, and is a lot more difficult than digging up coal and iron

It’s not just about rare earths. The US are currently interested in gallium and indium resources in mining dumps in Tasmania to secure supplies for semiconductors. No one will care if the doping elements in solar panels come from a country with no carbon tax.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

It’s not just about rare earths. The US are currently interested in gallium and indium resources in mining dumps in Tasmania to secure supplies for semiconductors. No one will care if the doping elements in solar panels come from a country with no carbon tax.

Of course they will. We are not special. Why do we get a pass and not everyone else?

 

[Michael Corleone]

Of course they will. We are not special. Why do we get a pass and not everyone else?

Because we have an enormous resource base, best mining expertise in the world, an open regulatory regime and friendly to most of the western powers. Why wouldn’t we?

 

[Magruder]

I see the growing sense of exceptionalism based on an assumption of expertise has found a home on Figbooty.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I see the growing sense of exceptionalism based on an assumption of expertise has found a home on Figbooty.

Fact we can't even get French or Chinese trade ministers to answer the phone should underline how exceptional we are

 

[Michael Corleone]

Fact we can't even get French or Chinese trade ministers to answer the phone should underline how exceptional we are

And yet, we’ve been raking in the billions the past 18 months via resource exports to China. Which shows the market is at a much bigger scale than what politicians and bureaucrats can control.

Of course Victoria could go it alone based on its tremendously robust industry of diploma mills.

 

[DaRick]

Nowhere is as bad as skid rows in LA, Philly, New York, etc.

Those aren't states though, plus skid rows are skid rows for a reason. Since when did the wealthy live in skid rows?

FWIW, I dislike modern-day San Fran greatly. I don't see it as left-wing so much as I see it as a neoliberal/globalist technocrat's wet dream, wherein the tech elites get to live in their silicon-shaped towers and lord it over the working man. Never mind all that inequality and homelessness, when the gay homeless can *gasp* get married! Pfft...

Latin American leftism is by-and-large very economically unsuccessful.

Latin America's economic problems transcend economic ideology and IMO have more to do with political corruption and incompetence, unfavourable trade deals (Mexico stagnated after NAFTA was signed in the early 1990's) and at times meddling by the US for geopolitical/ideological reasons (see Chile's Allende).

To sum up what I mean, let's examine Venezuela's real per capita GDP and GDP per capita, PPP (noting that Hugo Chavez was elected in 1998). Looking at that, it seems to me that Venezuela's real issue was relying too much on oil and suffering from US sanctions to boot, not Chavismo per se. All Chavez did was use high oil prices to buy off poor people - and seemingly it actually worked for a while!

Now let's examine Evo Morales' (2005-2019) Bolivia using the same metrics.

Now Communist Cuba, which looks less like an indictment of their economic model and more like an indictment of relying too much on foreign subsidies. Not that US sanctions helped.

Now let us examine that supposed right-wing success story, Pinochet's Chile (1973-1988). He also managed to increase inequality substantially too! A more consummate economic mastermind we have not seen.

In case you're still not entirely certain, we can always compare the left-wing Kirchners' Argentina (2003-2015) to the right-wing/neoliberal Macri's Argentina (2015-2019). The Kirchners were and are hilariously corrupt, but their brand of corruption, like Chavez's, seems to get relatively good results by the dismal standards of Argentina post-1970 or thereabouts.

And yet, we’ve been raking in the billions the past 18 months via resource exports to China. Which shows the market is at a much bigger scale than what politicians and bureaucrats can control.

Of course Victoria could go it alone based on its tremendously robust industry of diploma mills.

As much as I shake my head at the idea of Victorian independence, and as much as I agree that politicians can only do so much to control global economic conditions, I think it's not a particularly good idea for a nation to rely too heavily on commodities, and IMO we've relied on them too heavily over the past 25 years. I mean, relying on commodities is all well and good during the good times, but during the bad times you have nothing else to rely on. Unfortunately, in this case I think the bad times are coming within 3-7 months - the Chinese economy slowing will affect both iron ore and coal exports, and the Japanese economy doing the same thing will put the nail in coal exports.

This notion seems laughable at face value, but when you think about it, John Howard and Chavez have a surprising amount in common, in that both were more than willing to use commodity revenues to buy off the population. It's just that Howard bought off the middle-class whereas Chavez bought off poor people.

 

[eddiesmith]

Absolutely, Melbourne, Geelong and Gippsland can become the newest province of China and the rest of Regional Victoria can split between NSW and SA.

Will also be the death of the ALP federally so double bonus

 

[Gethelred]

Absolutely, Melbourne, Geelong and Gippsland can become the newest province of China and the rest of Regional Victoria can split between NSW and SA.

Will also be the death of the ALP federally so double bonus

I thought you were leaving.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Victorian devolution and self rule, make it happen.

 

[Magruder]

Victorian devolution and self rule, make it happen.

there’s plenty ofusthat would consider it.

 

[Michael Corleone]

I don't see it as left-wing so much as I see it as a neoliberal/globalist technocrat's wet dream, wherein the tech elites get to live in their silicon-shaped towers and lord it over the working man. Never mind all that inequality and homelessness, when the gay homeless can *gasp* get married! Pfft...

Like it or loathe it, that is what passes for the left now. The old left of the working class is dead.

 

[eddiesmith]

I thought you were leaving.

What can I say, someone offered me some very good money to stay and in a job that is safe from lockdowns.

So got the best of both worlds, good money and close to family whilst being in the border bubble and 5 minutes from NSW.

 

[kranky al]

Larger forces at work across the Anglosphere:

Really wouldnt work out very well for the red states - the blue states might warm to the idea of a wall but….

 

[sherb]

I thought you were leaving.

Ed needs to set up an independent province within Victoria called "Little England", he'd live in bliss then.

 

[sherb]

Really wouldnt work out very well for the red states - the blue states might warm to the idea of a wall but….

I think that's being generous. They'd be stuffed.

 

[Michael Corleone]

I think that's being generous. They'd be stuffed.

Not really, Alabama has a higher GDP per capita than UK for example.

 

[Magruder]

Not really, Alabama has a higher GDP per capita than UK for example.

GDP for Alabama is 20 times Nicaragua or Honduras or Belize.
but life expectancy is less.

explain how alabamas or West Virginia would fare as sovereign states.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

What can I say, someone offered me some very good money to stay and in a job that is safe from lockdowns.

So got the best of both worlds, good money and close to family whilst being in the border bubble and 5 minutes from NSW.

Yes, but cleaning shiit houses at Hungry Jacks is not all that it is cracked up to be

 

[eddiesmith]

Yes, but cleaning shiit houses at Hungry Jacks is not all that it is cracked up to be

I’ll take your word on that

 

[The Warlord]