VRC Derby 29 Oct 2022 (we love iluvparis day)

[Optimistic Dog]

This seems to be a strong edition of the race. However I have my eye on a horse called Skyphios by Fiorente a real staying type that needs a big track. Do yourself a favour and have look at the replay of the last to first win overa good P Payne filly Quang Tri coming from last. He was tipped out with one race in mine the Derby and his 2 warm up runs in the Guineas beaten 4.65 and the Vase beaten 5.5 after taking off early have been just what a stayer needed. If it is a truely run race the 50/1 on offer is well overs. If he was trained by a top trainer rather than Rob Blacker he be less than half those odds.


PS lucky I took the 50s into 34/1 now on the TAB.

1st of 12

FLEM 16Jul22 1800m Soft6 2Y HCP $150,000 ($103,500) Harry Coffey 54kg Barrier 7 Rtg 59 2nd Quang Tri 59kg, 3rd Midnight Glow 54kg 1:52.14 (600m 36.74), 0.75L, 10th@800m, 11th@400m, $19/$16/$20/$21

 

[iluvparis]

What about last start when he got beaten out of sight in one of the main lead ups?

 

[Optimistic Dog]

What about last start when he got beaten out of sight in one of the main lead ups?

I respect your judgment but a few points

1. As stated a real stayer bred to be a stayer
2. A big track horse
3. Aimed for one race
4. Was well beaten but 5.5 lenghts is not out sight and as stated it was warm up run where he took off early and did not have the turn of foot of some of the others. If ridden quieter probably gets beaten 3 lengths but does not get the fitness benefit.
5. Do you think you would getting 50/1 if he finished a lot closer in a warm up run I glad he did not.
6. As suggested have you watched his last run at Flemington were Saturdays race is run. I think not.
7. Yes needs tempo to be on and may not be good enough but plenty of derbies have been won by outsiders who have outstayed better quality horses. I happy with my 50/1 and 300/1 double into DL in MC. Probably lose by $50 to win $2,500 and $50 to win $15,000 but nothing ventured nothing gained.

 

[iluvparis]

Look its the kind of horse I would give an outside chance to in a weak year - the problem for him this year is that it looks to me like there are 3-4 top quality horses that are going to line up - and my guess is as at least one of them will stay the 2500 well enough to beat him home.

 

[CupperTea]

distrustful award strikes me as the one that will enjoy the trip. Overs imo.

 

[year of the cat]

Pericles worked well today.

 

[Jugada]

Low hanging fruit to pot a 100-1 shot I know but nothing about Skyphios suggests it's up to it for mine. It won an awful end of season 2yo race and outside of that has been well beaten at cricket score odds every time. The leader who was gone on the corner was going just as quick as it over the last 400 last time

Good luck to you at those odds but seeing things that I'm not

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Low hanging fruit to pot a 100-1 shot I know but nothing about Skyphios suggests it's up to it for mine. It won an awful end of season 2yo race and outside of that has been well beaten at cricket score odds every time. The leader who was gone on the corner was going just as quick as it over the last 400 last time

Good luck to you at those odds but seeing things that I'm not

Look you are probably right about his chances in a good edition but cannot accept the comment on his win. Quang Tri is not an awful horse the others were ordinary, Matty Hills comment was Egan was swinging on Quang Tri 250 from home and there 5.75 lengths to the third horse. It was a big win coming from last running straight past the second horse.

Thought I was shopping well at 50/1 now into 26/1 on the TAB. For some reason I had looked at Sportsbet who I do not have account and he is currently 80/1 and 20/1 the place.

TAB must be reading my posts. Sportsbet must be reading you and Ikuvparis posts. LOL

 

[HeathySure]

Low hanging fruit to pot a 100-1 shot I know but nothing about Skyphios suggests it's up to it for mine. It won an awful end of season 2yo race and outside of that has been well beaten at cricket score odds every time. The leader who was gone on the corner was going just as quick as it over the last 400 last time

Good luck to you at those odds but seeing things that I'm not

you need to see the ride, It was given none last start. wouldn't have won but was good enough 2nd up. Not saying it can win but i would rate it in the top 5 hopes
Its overs compared to some other nags.

 

[ash_1050]

Does the place 2-5 and get your money back on Sportsbet and Betr apply to the first bet only, or can you back multiple horses and get the same promo?

 

[iluvparis]

Does the place 2-5 and get your money back on Sportsbet and Betr apply to the first bet only, or can you back multiple horses and get the same promo?

First bet in each race only

 

[bamp]

First bet in each race only

So you can use it up to 9 times during the day (once on each of the Flemington races)?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

First bet in each race only

Do you have to tick anything when placing the bet?

Surely $50 on Surefire

 

[iluvparis]

So you can use it up to 9 times during the day (once on each of the Flemington races)?

Yes

 

[iluvparis]

Do you have to tick anything when placing the bet?

Surely $50 on Surefire

No

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Take your time Johnny Allen you useless campaigner.

 

[The Prosecutor]

Going to assume the biggest interest in that race is the photo for 5th.

 

[Hamingja]

Going to assume the biggest interest in that race is the photo for 5th.

And we are probably going to have to wait 20 minutes for Racing Australia to put the results up!

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

solid start

 

[Ah12]

Please tell that pissant pungo ran 5th for money back

 

[The Prosecutor]

Looks like Pungo will hold for 5th.

 

[iluvparis]

Please tell that pissant pungo ran 5th for money back

I think it just held on

 

[54Dogs]

I think it just held on

yep

 

[Hamingja]

Success

 

[The Prosecutor]

View attachment 1545166

Success

Bleh.