A11dAtP0w3R
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VRC Derby and all race day discussion.
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A11dAtP0w3R
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Moonovermanhatten the overs there for me.
The $21 at Bet Easy isn't there but still think he should be clear second favourite behind HC. Can still get $7 on 365.
The $21 at Bet Easy isn't there but still think he should be clear second favourite behind HC. Can still get $7 on 365.
Never been a big fan of the derby, if I'm backing anything it would be Bondeiger @ e/w odds finished off really well yesterday and a saver on Hampton Court
Watched the Vase again & thought Bondeiger was very good.
Slowly run race & he pulled solid ground from last & copped a check on corner, surprised he's $17.
Looks like derby trip will suit
seth
Slowly run race & he pulled solid ground from last & copped a check on corner, surprised he's $17.
Looks like derby trip will suit
seth
$15 available on sportsbet considering taking it thoughts sethlad
in the in decision now into 12s so taken it
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Don't like the 3yo's particularly this year.
rideclutch
Norm Smith Medallist
Any of Smerdon's fillies would go seriously close here. Split them up, Rob.
yaco55
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Hampton Court runs to his performance in the Spring Champion Stakes, and he wins by 2 or 3 lengths. Don't expect the horse to be at the rear of the field unless it draws poorly. Will probably settle forward of midfield. Preferment is a big danger if it brings its A Game - I query whether Preferment is mature enough in its racing manners - I am already looking at preferment for the AJC Derby.
I doubt any of the fillies would be competitive in the Derby - There are no First Seals running around.
I doubt any of the fillies would be competitive in the Derby - There are no First Seals running around.
iluvparis
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Usual GW bias must be taken into account with the above post.
iluvparis
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Not really one of my races either. Possibly because Efficient was the last winner I backed in it.
And what a win that was that weaving run down the straight, but yes I steer clear of many of the juvenile races formlines can be all over the place, the last time I had a bet on the Golden Slipper was when Ha Ha won and that is going back a long time!Not really one of my races either. Possibly because Efficient was the last winner I backed in it.
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Have been following Atmosphere all along but he has been costly and just not quite finishing off.
Hampton Courts last win was too dominant to overlook and appears to be a true stayer which is half the trick.
I'll be staking on both probably 75/25 to the fave. Atmosphere perhaps a colder ride will help.
Hampton Courts last win was too dominant to overlook and appears to be a true stayer which is half the trick.
I'll be staking on both probably 75/25 to the fave. Atmosphere perhaps a colder ride will help.
If Hampton Court draws well then he should be awfully hard to beat, The Spring Champion is the right form line for this in my opinion, Sweynesse has just run well in a Cox Plate, wouldn't surprise me if he wins it easily to be honest.
Moonovermanhatton, Boedinger, Magicool and Atmoshpere are in the race but again not sure they can beat him on his last run.
Moonovermanhatton, Boedinger, Magicool and Atmoshpere are in the race but again not sure they can beat him on his last run.
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I don't think we can really expect the same Hampton Court. Only my opinion but he came off a stupidly hot tempo from scissor kick and his two main rivals were trying to match race from the 500. The race was really there for anyone with smooth ride and staying ability. I think all things equal, first seal or sweynesse are still the far superior horses. Would be interesting how everyone else saw that race. Saying that though it's a pretty poor sort of derby and he can probably get it done even without a few favours, if you put either of those fillies in this they would win by 4-5 lengths. I will probably go each way at a dour front running type that can hopefully box seat off a slow tempo and try to avoid the $2.20-$3 that will get dished up on race day for Hampton Court.
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If he repeats, he donkey licks them.
I've never been donkey licked but I assume it's no fun.
I've never been donkey licked but I assume it's no fun.
iluvparis
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My issue with Hampton Court is that it had looked nothing more than an average 3yo until it turns up on Spring Champion Day and blows them away off a suicide pace at 15/1. Has one time, never to be repeated freak performance written all over it.
Now you want me to take $2.50 on it in the Derby? Doesn't feel right.
Now you want me to take $2.50 on it in the Derby? Doesn't feel right.
A11dAtP0w3R
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Agree.
Not a race i think ill get too heavily involved in.
Another avatar i think you can appreciate, Paris
The fact that he came off a stupidly hot tempo doesn't mean his performance was not as good as the others you have mentioned, he was still running at a ridiculously fast pace himself and was by far the strongest horses late whether the others cost themselves to an extent or not, it was an exceptional performance.
The Spring Champion was simply a run 2000M race and the first 3 across the line are good 3yos, I do agree however that longer term the other two are probably the better prospects. I gave some hope to Sweynesse in the Cox Plate on the back of his Spring Champion run and he ran well, surely that means Hampton Court is extremely hard to beat in this race?
I have been against the favorites in the Derby in recent years but sometimes it's best to not ignore the obvious and for me he is the obvious this week, think he is just better than them.
iluvparis
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I'd rather bet against him replcating the performance at the current price.
Gai trained horse recording a ridiculous rating in a Sydney Group 1, seemingly from nowhere.....gets my alarm bells ringing.
Gai trained horse recording a ridiculous rating in a Sydney Group 1, seemingly from nowhere.....gets my alarm bells ringing.
terminators
All Australian
Think the pace holds the key to this race.
No doubt HC was flattered by the arrogance of the jockeys on First Seal and Sweynesse taking off so far out match race style.
That said, looked easily the best stayer in the race and hard to see it getting rolled if the tempo is hot again.
If it's slow early and a sprint from the 4-600 don't think he can run over them
No doubt HC was flattered by the arrogance of the jockeys on First Seal and Sweynesse taking off so far out match race style.
That said, looked easily the best stayer in the race and hard to see it getting rolled if the tempo is hot again.
If it's slow early and a sprint from the 4-600 don't think he can run over them
Thats fair enough but his one performance is so far beyond what the others in this field have done that he doesn't have to replicate that performance to win.
I think Sweynesse and First Seal are very nice 3yo's and he wasn't far behind them over 1400M back in August, again close to Sweynesse in the Spring Stakes and has then one his last two, yes his Spring Champion was a big peak performance but he has built into his campaign and come from the right form line for this race.
If he does repeat his Spring Champion then he wins, if he doesn't he is still a huge winning chance, who else in this race has looked anything better than an average 3yo this campaign?
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