WA State Election - Saturday March 11, 2017

[Bomberboyokay]

Labor look like winning but it'd be folly to call an election winner two months out on these available numbers.

C̶o̶u̶n̶t̶r̶y̶ ̶L̶i̶b̶e̶r̶a̶l̶s̶ Nationals will be ass*ed by One Nation (in part because "It's not a coalition" rings very hollow after 9 years of coalition).

One Nation will also probably distort some outcomes in outer suburban Perth. Will average 10% statewide.

 

[Belnakor]

Labor look like winning but it'd be folly to call an election winner two months out on these available numbers.

C̶o̶u̶n̶t̶r̶y̶ ̶L̶i̶b̶e̶r̶a̶l̶s̶ Nationals will be ass****ed by One Nation (in part because "It's not a coalition" rings very hollow after 9 years of coalition).

One Nation will also probably distort some outcomes in outer suburban Perth. Will average 10% statewide.

In terms of the election how the Nationals do is largely irrelevant as their seats are almost all vs Liberal candidates running second. So if ONP direct preferences against them it probably won't matter as the Libs will pick up the seat.

Pilbara looks like old Bear is in big trouble if he doesn't get One Nation preferences. That might go Labor i guess. Nats are largely a side issue in terms of what seats they win.

 

[Forward Press]

Yeah, don't make the mistake of assuming One Nation WA and Pauline Hanson's One Nation are the same.

Also don't make the mistake of thinking this will be fought on ideological grounds - it will be fought on debt and overspending and incompetence of the government. Roe 8 and Western Power will decide this and although Labor should claw back a lot of ground I think that enough of the population still think Barnett's doing an okay job.

Hope I'm wrong though, the Opposition has been effective and organised, far from the rabble of the early 2010s, and they should acquit themselves well irrespective of the result.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-11/wa-election-one-nation-leader-says-no-preference-deal/8176304

New WA One Nation leader ruling out an overarching preference deal with the govt or opposition, but the Sunday Times also reporting Hanson and Ashby apparently meeting with Liberal state director Andrew Cox - make of that what you will.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

And after writing it off as too expensive when Dean Nalder pitched it, the Government has gone back to a tunnel for Roe 9.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-...tunnel-promised-by-barnett-government/8183512

Think the idea that any of this will reduce congestion is pretty fanciful tbh. The way Perth has gone over the past 15 years, congestions just expands to meet any new roads.

 

[Reynolds Number]

And the effects of the tunnel on the hydrology of the wetlands would definitely be concerning too if you are against the whole project on emvironmental grounds.

 

[JackOutback]

Yeah, don't make the mistake of assuming One Nation WA and Pauline Hanson's One Nation are the same.

Also don't make the mistake of thinking this will be fought on ideological grounds - it will be fought on debt and overspending and incompetence of the government. Roe 8 and Western Power will decide this and although Labor should claw back a lot of ground I think that enough of the population still think Barnett's doing an okay job.

Hope I'm wrong though, the Opposition has been effective and organised, far from the rabble of the early 2010s, and they should acquit themselves well irrespective of the result.

I find it difficult to believe there would be many who think he's doing a good job. Ambivalent or apathetic, maybe, but to believe he's doing okay? All people care about really is the economy and it's struggling, debt is rising, house prices are falling, utilities are rising. He was able to ride the good times but seems to be struggling during the bad years. What should be good publicity, like the Children's Hospital, is even working against him.

 

[Forward Press]

I find it difficult to believe there would be many who think he's doing a good job. Ambivalent or apathetic, maybe, but to believe he's doing okay? All people care about really is the economy and it's struggling, debt is rising, house prices are falling, utilities are rising. He was able to ride the good times but seems to be struggling during the bad years. What should be good publicity, like the Children's Hospital, is even working against him.

I specifically wrote okay job, though. Governments lose elections, Oppositions don't win them, as the saying goes, McGowan is doing well in preferred premier polling but this is historically a fairly conservative state. Needs a more concerted campaign from Labor to keep the public focused on the flaws. The whole Roe 8 debacle is a start.

 

[Belnakor]

I specifically wrote okay job, though. Governments lose elections, Oppositions don't win them, as the saying goes, McGowan is doing well in preferred premier polling but this is historically a fairly conservative state. Needs a more concerted campaign from Labor to keep the public focused on the flaws. The whole Roe 8 debacle is a start.

more recent polling has the public firmly pro-Roe 8.

its interesting since the protests started alot of people have moved from being indifferent/undecided to pro-Roe 8. All the protesters are doing are making the public turn against them.

 

[Scotland]

Labor's solution to Roe 8 seems to be 'not Roe 8'.

http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/freightandtrade

WA Labor does not support the deeply flawed Perth Freight Link, an expensive, divisive, poorly planned truck highway that doesn’t even reach Fremantle Port.

A McGowan Labor Government will:

• Commence planning for the Outer Harbour at Kwinana and the associated road and rail links as part of the long term integrated transport plan for the State.
• Improve the management of truck movements to and from Fremantle Port and upgrade road links to ease congestion into Fremantle Port.
• Maintain Fremantle Port as an operational port in public ownership.
• Facilitate intermodal facilities in Kewdale-Forrestfield, Bullsbrook, Mundijong and Latitude 32 in Kwinana and continue to minimise truck movements on Perth roads.
• Develop South Quay in Fremantle to be a world class cruise ship port and to provide for urban renewal including commercial and tourism operations.
• Continue to develop the capacity of Bunbury Port.
• As a matter of priority apply to Infrastructure Australia to provide funding to the projects outlined in WA Labor’s Seven Point Plan.

So, all trucks that currently use Roe Hwy will continue to use the Freeway, Leach Hwy, Stock Rd etc.

I don't think people will go for that. Roe Hwy South of the wetlands along the rail corridor, maybe.

The long term plan includes upgrading Anketell Rd to a major East-West route. Anketell Rd runs right along The Spectacles, right along Wandi nature reserve and right through the middle of Jandakot regional park. But yeah it's all about saving the wetlands.

 

[Belnakor]

"improving the management of truck movements" means absolutely SFA.

Labor's solution to Roe 8 seems to be 'not Roe 8'.

So, all trucks that currently use Roe Hwy will continue to use the Freeway, Leach Hwy, Stock Rd etc.

Anketell is also the long way around, more travel more pollution etc.

I'm not sure what Labor's tactic should have been but simply put they are gaining votes from people who are already dyed in the wool labor supports while annoying alot of other people. Bad politics to just say they will cancel it. Better off saying they will "redirect it" or something.

 

[JackOutback]

more recent polling has the public firmly pro-Roe 8.

its interesting since the protests started alot of people have moved from being indifferent/undecided to pro-Roe 8. All the protesters are doing are making the public turn against them.

Which polling is this? Historically, on environmental matters where people aren't directly affected, they tend to come down on the side of the environment. I mean, who hates the environment (besides Tony Abbott)?

 

[Belnakor]

Which polling is this? Historically, on environmental matters where people aren't directly affected, they tend to come down on the side of the environment. I mean, who hates the environment (besides Tony Abbott)?

https://thewest.com.au/news/perth/barnett-opts-for-tunnel-as-roe-8-support-grows-ng-b88354592z

almost all the undecided appear to have become in favor of it.

 

[JackOutback]

Fair enough, though landline polling is becoming very unreliable these days. The type of people that answer phone calls on their landline in the early evening tend to fit a certain demographic.

 

[Scotland]

"improving the management of truck movements" means absolutely SFA.

That's what 'visions' are all about.

Anketell is also the long way around, more travel more pollution etc.

I'm not sure what Labor's tactic should have been but simply put they are gaining votes from people who are already dyed in the wool labor supports while annoying alot of other people. Bad politics to just say they will cancel it. Better off saying they will "redirect it" or something.

Anketell is about the 'outer harbour' solution, i.e. trucks not going to Freo and the container port being replaced with a communal kale garden.

 

[Belnakor]

Fair enough, though landline polling is becoming very unreliable these days. The type of people that answer phone calls on their landline in the early evening tend to fit a certain demographic.

recent polling results have shown it tends to understate the conservative side of the equation so if anything people are more pro Roe-8 than the poll suggests tbh.

Also why i think Barnett has alot bigger chance than people think.

 

[Belnakor]

Anketell is about the 'outer harbour' solution, i.e. trucks not going to Freo and the container port being replaced with a communal kale garden.

if i see that in my life time i'll be very very surprised

 

[Scotland]

I maintain that despite being a crappy plan 'we're building Roe 8 to ease congestion and selling WP to make money' will go down better with Average Joe than 'we're not building Roe 8 and not selling WP'. People want an alternative and Labor aren't doing a very good job of selling theirs IMO.

Labor are still coming across as an opposition rather than an alternative government. I'm not sure Barnett has done enough badly for that to be enough to tip him out of his throne.

 

[The_Eagles]

The news that the police have cost 40k a day to control the protesters has turned the worm.

We were bombarded with Metronet by this time 4 years ago, still waiting for the Labor Ace or centrepiece development/policy to drop. Even in this s**t economic climate..They are running out of time, people are starting to like Elizabeth Quay and the stadium just keeps on looking grander by the day

Children's hospital is a bit of a snag though for LibWA

 

[Belnakor]

The news that the police have cost 40k a day to control the protesters has turned the worm.

their behaviour has been disgraceful. And for a wet land i doubt any of them had set foot in prior to this month. They should run the protesters down with bulldozers if they keep getting in the way.

They don't seem to have cottoned on that protesting is no longer considered to be a Nobel cause.

We were bombarded with Metronet by this time 4 years ago, still waiting for the Labor Ace or centrepiece development/policy to drop. Even in this s**t economic climate..They are running out of time, people are starting to like Elizabeth Quay and the stadium just keeps on looking grander by the day

Children's hospital is a bit of a snag though for LibWA

anyone who has been down to the quay would realize it was a visionary project - and who really gives a * if it cost a bit more. It looks amazing and will be there in 100 years time. The stadium is a testament to the boom and grand spending - got to love it.

Children's hospital from what i'm hearing has even more issues cropping up - john holland have stuffed that up.

Labor will still go with Metronet but i feel like alot of it is already promised/covered by other plans. Though it does run right through the middle of about 5 marginal seats - what a co-incidence

 

[Belnakor]

I maintain that despite being a crappy plan 'we're building Roe 8 to ease congestion and selling WP to make money' will go down better with Average Joe than 'we're not building Roe 8 and not selling WP'. People want an alternative and Labor aren't doing a very good job of selling theirs IMO.

yeah i feel like having a plan is better than no plan.

the previous governments have sold these grand plans to people for the last 8 years. The public expects them.

In a way Labor and the protesters have done the Liberals a favor. In reality building a road isn't actually that sexy but it is beginning to make Barnett and Harvey look pretty good, refusing to back down to the protesters etc.

 

[Power Raid]

I don't actually have that much of a problem with the road through the wetlands, but they have no idea what to do when they reach Freo. On that basis alone, I wouldn't be funding the project as it's still a half-baked plan.

????

Roe9 and done!

 

[Power Raid]

i can't think of too many small target strategies that actually worked. The only one i can think of in recent memories was Abbott vs Rudd (Rudd was completely toxic) and Kennet in the 90s. Other than that, people won't vote for a small target. iirc its 52/48 for Labor in the polls but of late there has been significant under stating of conversative vote numbers in polling so i'm guessing its a bit higher than that.

Also worth considering the One Nation curve ball, polling 10% across the board will shake things up a bit and i believe Barnett is doing a deal with them. One Nation's vote will most likely be under stated but also it does come from both sides of politics - if Barnett can stitch up a deal that will help him alot.

Expecting the Libs to get smashed in the upper house btw, i'm thinking only 2 each in most of the regions when they normally get 3.

Key ex Libs are warning business re a change in govt is inevitable.

The Cameco decision today feels like clearing the decks

 

[Forward Press]

I maintain that despite being a crappy plan 'we're building Roe 8 to ease congestion and selling WP to make money' will go down better with Average Joe than 'we're not building Roe 8 and not selling WP'. People want an alternative and Labor aren't doing a very good job of selling theirs IMO.

Labor are still coming across as an opposition rather than an alternative government. I'm not sure Barnett has done enough badly for that to be enough to tip him out of his throne.

They need a Metronet. Captured the imagination last election and forced the government into making promises it couldn't keep (light rail to Mirrabooka for example). Was always going to lose against a relatively popular one term premier but Metronet probably turned a big loss into something more salvageable for 2017.

Opposing the sell off of WP won't win the election for them, if they can come up with a costed Metronet-style plan to address serious transport issues in Perth they will give it a mighty shake come election time.

I'm still backing Barnett for this one.

 

[Scotland]

Isn't McGowan releasing his plan in this weekend's paper? I think I heard that on the radio. I hope it's better than the transport plan.

Work has started on the airport rail link and Brearley Ave is closed. Surprised this isn't getting more press. Would have thought The West would be all over it as there are serious brownie points on offer for Emperor Barnett.