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WAFL - Round 20, 2010

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swannies

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Oct 27, 2007
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Swan Districts, Everton
We'll call this the Custer round, I think, because it's the last stand for a few teams. There's 5 teams jammed from 36 points to 32 points, who can still, mathematically, make the finals. This makes some absolutely massive matches this round.

Tigers v Lions - Fairly big match this one, because the Lions could find themselves outside of the 4 after this round, if the Falcons and Sharks win. Can the experienced Lions match it with the youthfull Tiges though? They were pretty competitive in the second time these teams played, so we'll see.

We all know the Tigers running power, with Brabazon, Schammer, Foster, Mitchell, Walton, Browne, Rudeforth, Ninyette, Neates. Thomson must be due back, but Laurie and Derickx have done a fine job since his injury. Jones is still out and this probably represents teams biggest chance against the Tiger cubs. However, with a forward line of Crawford, Richardson, Ninyette and Neates floating through there, is still a pretty big ask for the Lions backs.

The Lions have a good ruck division with Rix and sideshow, if Read is in then that's pretty useful, but Blechynden, Kerr keep developing, whilst Ali and son should have a second game together. Ali still has plenty to offer in bursts, and his footy smarts should rub off on to the younger players. Parker and Rumble will have their hands full and will need a lot of support from the likes of Randall, Cossom and Keevers, guys with a bit of pace! One guy who will need a lot of support, is the 1 man forward line of Blake Broadhurst - someone just assist him, please? The mids will be interesting, because I just don't see Subi's Blechynden, Kerr, Read, Bristow, Webb, Vines having the run and carry of the Tigers.
Tigers, comfortably.

Teams

Tigers
B: C Rudeforth B Franz N Chidgzey
HB: K Mitchell S Starling A Holt
C: A Browne R Walton R Brabazon
HF: I Richardson D Crawford J Ninyette
F: R Neates D Ross T Derickx
Foll: A Ruck A Foster L Blackwell
I/C: J.Murphy, J.Mcallister, T.Lee, T.Willett, I.Rowe, B.Anderson, C.Jones
Emg: Nil
In: I.Rowe, S.Starling, N.Chidgzey, J.Murphy, J.Mcallister, T.Lee, C.Jones, D.Ross
Out: B.Wilkes, B.Jones, T.Swift, P.Mcginnity, J.Laurie, B.Schammer

Lions
B: C Phelan D Rumble R Kerr
HB: B Broadhurst A Parker B Randall
C: B Keevers K Horsley S Hildebrandt
HF: C Cossom A Campbell M Webb
F: A Pickett J Adamson-holmes R Muller
Foll: M Rix P Hassett R Blechynden
I/C: A.Davey, D.Headland, B.Heffernan-roper, M.Smith, T.Richards, P.Read, S.Worthington
Emg: Nil
In: A.Davey, D.Headland, P.Read, S.Worthington
Out: Nil


Sharks v Demons - Big match for the Sharks, because this is exactly the sort of game they've let slip to keep them out of the 4 in the past. Make no mistake, it won't be easy, because Jarman has come out and said he's heading back to Adelaide at the end of the season, so I see the Dees being fired up.

The Sharks have been getting great service out of their defence, most of the year. Weller and Spangher at key posts has been stable and then Brennan, Stephen and Green providing run out of the back half. Stevens has been a bonus in the middle, and the development of Hall, Monteath, Fasolo, Cripps has complemented the McGough, McNamara, Houlihan, Chidlow experience. Up forward has been their problem most of the year, except in Derbies I might add, they've been able to score heavily in derbies. Ryley Dunn is very important in this area, gives them another midfield option but can be devastating up forward as well, whilst Cripps was just on song last weekend.

The Demons will fight this one out to the end and have plenty of firepower with Ferguson, Houghton, McDougall, Armstrong, Ransted. They have developed some of the AFL listed players this year, like Smith, Ruffles and the standout being Sibosado, has come along in leaps and bounds. Siekerka, Mzungu, O'Sullivan provide a pretty fair running brigade and Billings has been really good down back, IMO. Throw Thornton and Moody in to the mix and it's a very potent side, but they haven't been able to get all of the experienced players on the park at once.
I'm tentatively selecting the Sharks in this one.

Teams

Sharks
B: J Brennan R Young L Teakle
HB: A Stephen L Weller J Venturini
C: S Dodd M Mcgough S Horsburgh
HF: J Mcnamara A Ricciardello A Fasolo
F: R Dunn J Perham A Kyanga
Foll: S Lee-steere K Stevens K Monteath
I/C: C.Leslie, C.Davidson, L.Fasolo, D.Chidlow, J.Cripps, K.Green, J.Sgherza
Emg: Nil
In: J.Venturini, C.Leslie, S.Dodd, L.Fasolo, J.Sgherza
Out: M.Spangher, T.Houlihan

Demons
B: C Sibosado M Ferguson C Rodgers
HB: R Young H Busher B Hodge
C: D O'sullivan M Moody R Conca
HF: D White A Thornton T Mzungu
F: S Armstrong B Davis T Ruffles
Foll: W Sullivan J Brennan A Elari
I/C: J.Eades, C.Mclernon, A.Mcdougall, J.Houghton, R.Garlett, D.Venditti, L.Smith
Emg: Nil
In: B.Davis, J.Eades, R.Young
Out: Nil
 
Bulldogs v Swans - so far the Bulldogs haven't been able to string together wins, especially when they have looked to be hitting form and this is the last chance saloon for them. Dawson has Swans on alert that the Bulldogs will come out snarling and snapping, hopefully we're ready!

The Bulldogs, whilst aging, still have class across the ground, with Murphy, Miller, McGrath, Head, Hunt, North, Adams, Bossong, Siegert, Hams, Wilson. Gugliamana was a bright spot last week, as was the fact the Doggies fought the game out well. Head to head at Freo Oval it's 68 - 35, dogs favour, so not a happy hunting ground for Swans. However, the dogs will need to bring their running and harassing game to the ground. Dell-olio was starting to hit some good form and is a big out, with Phillips also missing. Collica, Parry, Amato, Kersten, these younger type players will be key in this contest.

Swans are starting to get some players back, albeit through reserves this week, to provide extreme pressure on places coming into the finals. Walters (must be travelling emergency) and Davis are big outs for the midfield rotations. Simpson has been put on the HBF, to take Kersten I suspect, whilst Colreavy looks to finally play his 100th WAFL game. The question is will Krakouer, Roberts, Roach, Pratt, Hinkley, Wolfenden, Richardson, Garlett, Fleay, Outridge and Twomey have too much run for the Bulldogs? Ames, Casserley, Riggio, Spencer, Jetta and Simpson will have their hands full with that forward line of Souths, on paper looks very good.
Swans, in a close one, I think, oh no I can't decide!

Teams

Bulldogs
B:K Hams C Bossong C Amato
HB:M Miller S Hunt J Head
C:J Parry T Mcgrath H North
HF:A Mccarrey C Wilson C White
F:T Motlop R Murphy S Kersten
Foll:S Delmenico K Miller A Guglielmana
I/C:S.Fielding, P.Mugambwa, T.Bairstow, A.Collica
Emg:W.Andreoli, D.Easter, S.Rioli
In:A.Collica, M.Miller
Out:C.Dell-olio, D.Easter, J.Klause

Swans
B:T Casserly T Ames B Wolfenden
HB:G Jetta M Riggio J Simpson
C:L Pratt J Roberts T Roach
HF:C Hinkley T Notte T Geappen
F:C Garlett J Pullman B Colreavy
Foll:L Spaanderman P Richardson A Krakouer
I/C:M.Spencer, W.Twomey, S.Fleay, M.Outridge
Emg:B.Van groningen, R.Manton, S.Parry
In:B.Colreavy, L.Pratt, B.Wolfenden, R.Manton, S.Parry
Out:M.Walters, R.Davis
 
Royals v Falcons - biggest match of the round, this one. Not only their hatred of each other, but a finals spot is potentially out of the question if the Royals lose. Bring it on, this will be a beauty!

The Royals have been struggling to hit peak form most of the year, but they find themselves only a game out of the top 4. Last week McKinley was pivotal in kicking 7, whilst Brandon Lee played the best game I've seen him play, add to that Adam Prior. Birrell was great in the ruck, Clarke was good in the ruck but very dangerous forward, just missed simple goals. With McKinley and Clarke out this week they will have to find another avenue to goals, against a fairly well drilled defence. Roberton is another 'bad' out for the Royals. Wulff, Pickering, Sweet, Lee, Macauley, Shuey (watch this kid :thumbsu:) will need to be at their best against the Falcons' mids.

Salecic, Bartholomew, Bewick, Rice, Guadagnin, Lamb will be hard to stop for the Royals. LeCras and Tsalikis up forward will need support from Saylor, Bewick etc. Hunt, Lasscock, Tedesco, Fleay provide a solid defence with plenty of rebound from the small flankers. Andrews and Keunen should win the ruck, but we know you can win the rucks and lose the clearances. I think the forward line is possibly the Falcons weak link, although Darling is on the extended bench, but their runners can contribute goals.
This should be a pretty even contest, but I suspect the Falcons will get over the line.

Teams

Royals
B:B Lee L Sampey A Sweet
HB:L Webster B Hancock J Oakley-nicholls
C:C Wulff J Keath A Pickering
HF:B Dobson T Howlett D Stirling
F:M Seal A Prior M Swan
Foll:J Birrell D Macaulay C Glancy
I/C:L.Shuey, J.Eastwell, J.Delborrello, S.Payne, N.Blee, J.Derickx, F.Clutterbuck
Emg:Nil
In:C.Glancy, S.Payne, J.Delborrello, J.Derickx, N.Blee, F.Clutterbuck
Out:B.Mckinley, D.Roberton, Z.Clarke

Falcons
B:L Harvey D Hunt C Lasscock
HB D Burns D Fleay J Gobbells
C:R Bartholomew M Guadagnin J Rice
HF:R Bewick B Lecras J Salecic
F:A Saylor F Stockley C Shadbolt
Foll:C Keunen J Pearce J Tindall
I/C:A.James, S.Bewick, J.Darling, A.Tsalikis, M.Andrews, C.Chambers, A.Black
Emg:Nil
In:C.Lasscock, M.Andrews, C.Chambers, A.James
Out:M.Tedesco
 
Subi a big chance to cause an upset I reckon, five huge outs for Claremont and we get back Des Headland and Phil Read. Should be a pretty good game hopefully.
 

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Swan always seem to name the team bizarrely. I'd suggest the following would be closer to the mark...

Swans
B:T Casserly T Ames L Pratt
HB:G Jetta M.Spencer W.Twomey
C: B Wolfenden J Roberts T Roach
HF:C Hinkley T Notte B Colreavy
F:C Garlett J Pullman T Geappen
Foll:L Spaanderman M Riggio A Krakouer
I/C: S.Fleay, M.Outridge J Simpson P Richardson
Emg:B.Van groningen, R.Manton, S.Parry
 
Pacemakers WAFL Punting is back after a break in the 2 game bye

Claremont vs Subiaco.

Subiaco have to win this game if they want to have a 4 points break from 5th spot on the ladder. They welcome back some decent In's with D.Headland and P.Read which is only going the strenghen their chances. On the other side of things Claremont who are 2 games celear of 2nd in top spot are still missing the potential Bernie Naylor medalist for 2010 in Chad Jones and also lose B.Wilkes, B.Jones, T.Swift, P.Mcginnity, J.Laurie and B.Schammer. But they have held firm all season with their AFL listed players going in and out from the side and should still win this game.
H2H: Clearmont $1.04 Subiaco $8.75. If you are a Subiaco fan there is some good value here for the odd $10er but I feel Claremont should have this game covered.
Line: Claremont -48.5, Subiaco +48.5. With Chad Jones still out and with B.Wilkes, B.Jones, T.Swift, P.Mcginnity and B.Schammer all potential out's due to AFL duties and the In's of D.Headland and P.Read for Subiaco I can not see this game going over 48 points. Chad Jones plays in important part in all of Claremont's smashings and with him not out there it should be not a smashing but still a soild win. Claremont by 34 points

East Perth vs West Perth

The Perth derby and it should be a ripper the way East Perth have been playing of late. However the Royals have some big outs in Mckinley, D.Roberton, Z.Clarke. This will not help their chances at all. With West Perth in 3rd spot and looking to secure a home elimination final I can not see them dropping this game. I am very stunned with the betting favourites here :eek:
H2H: East Perth $1.39 West Perth $2.75 * value of the week*
Line East Perth -16.5 West Perth + 16.5 *bet of the week*
Massive value here for the Falcons considering they are in 3rd place and the Royals are in 6th and are favourite, work that one out. West Perth by 15 points

South Fremantle vs Swan Districts

Should be a great game if the Bulldogs still believe they cans till make the finals after their loss in the so call derby eliminator match last week. Keeping this one short as Swannies has already given his previews. Murpy, Wilson and A Guglielmana are all in great form.
H2H: Swan Districts: $1.54 South Fremantle $2.30
Line Swan Districts: -10.5 South Fremantle +10.5
The line is on the money here but being at home for South Fremantle I expect them to show something more than what they did last week. Swan Districts by 9 points

East Fremantle vs Perth

East Fremantle in 5th spot with a poor percentage considered to play finals will need a big win againist the ever improving Perth. East Fremantle lose M.Spangher with a very surprise WCE call up to say the least but this shouldn't big a major loss. Perth have a good team on paper bit like Claremont did last year but didn't perform. Finals on the line here for the Sharks I expect them to win here and by a decent margin as they need to, to have a chance of playing finals footy.
H2H: East Fremantle $1.17 Perth $4.35
Line: East Fremantle -29.5 Perth +29.5
East Fremantle by 39 points.
 
Love these betting line posts Pacey, even though I'm not a punter, makes it interesting. Just as well I didn't ruch out to put the hard earned on the Falcons though!:p
 

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Yeah the value bet was poor from me this week, but I am 2 from 2 in my best bets.

From memory in another round I suggested as did some other guy that the 70+ line offered for Perth againist Claremont was the best bet for the week.

Now just last week Falcons 16+ still won as the Royals only won by 14 :D

Going for 3/3 in the best bet category this week.
 

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WAFL - Round 20, 2010

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