Prediction Walking the tightrope - The Run Home

[SwansProudly]

We need to smoke the blues to make the top 4. Dependent on results too...go freo!

As the reserves have the bye next week, let's have our reserve team thrash Carlton by 120 points

 

[Grongey]

I think we finish 6th - unless we can somehow beat Adelaide on Friday night. If you saw the Crows play last night, you'll know just how difficult that will be.
But 5th and 6th both get home finals, so it's not so bad.
No real incentive to finish 4th - would only have to travel to Adelaide Oval again for the first final.

I stand by my 6th place prediction. Very relieved at avoiding Adelaide in Week 1.

 

[RUNVS]

Stick a fork in our top 4 hopes but it was always highly unlikely anyway. The boys better come out in 2018 and go 10-0 to make up for the handicap which, let's be honest, we placed on ourselves. I just want us to win at least one final this year at the very minimum.

Top 4 does not seem likely but I did a ladder predictor and had our finals run as something like Melbourne (SCG), then Richmond (MCG), Adelaide (AO) and then the Grand Final. We could win those 3 games, especially the first 2.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Top 4 does not seem likely but I did a ladder predictor and had our finals run as something like Melbourne (SCG), then Richmond (MCG), Adelaide (AO) and then the Grand Final. We could win those 3 games, especially the first 2.

Wow that would be a dream scenario playing two untested teams in September.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Top 4 does not seem likely but I did a ladder predictor and had our finals run as something like Melbourne (SCG), then Richmond (MCG), Adelaide (AO) and then the Grand Final. We could win those 3 games, especially the first 2.

Is that a actual real scenario? seems to good to be true is that for 5th or 6th?

 

[RUNVS]

Is that a actual real scenario? seems to good to be true is that for 5th or 6th?

Yep it is very real.

For the final round I put into the ladder predictor

Hawthorn beat Bulldogs
Melbourne beat Collingwood
Sydney beat Carlton
Port beat Gold Coast
GWS beat Geelong
Essendon beat Fremantle
Adelaide beat West Coast
Richmond beat St Kilda

If that were to happen we would finish 6th, meaning we would play 7th who would be Melbourne. If we win that we play the loser of 2nd (GWS) vs 3rd (Richmond).

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Wow we avoid playing a top 4 side till a Prelim providing of course we get there, wonder if the club has crunched out all these scenarios?

 

[MickyG]

Wow we avoid playing a top 4 side till a Prelim providing of course we get there, wonder if the club has crunched out all these scenarios?

I got the same result earlier. Richmond are third in that scenario.

That finals schedule is one of the reasons I am happier to end up sixth than fourth.

The other is that with the break from round 23 to the finals the break for the top 4 week 1 winners has probably become more of a liability than an advantage. Both week one winners lost their Prelims last year. Note our form after the bye in recent years. When that week off was after ten to twelve weeks it was an advantage, now everyone gets a week off to refresh and the second week off kicks in a post bye handicap.

Finishing outside the top four should now give you a weaker team in week one of the finals and then a step up the following week. I'd rather play Melbourne in week one of finals than Adelaide. I don't mean to disrespect any of the teams in the final 8 with all being seriously good teams and would really worry about playing Essendon but I like the schedule above over that of top 4 sides.

 

[mtooler]

Avoiding Adelaide till the Grand Final is best case scenario.

 

[mikey_san]

I got the same result earlier. Richmond are third in that scenario.

I'd rather play Melbourne in week one of finals than Adelaide. I don't mean to disrespect any of the teams in the final 8 with all being seriously good teams and would really worry about playing Essendon but I like the schedule above over that of top 4 sides.

Essendon would be my preference over Melbourne tbh. Without their two speedy forwards in Fantasia and Green I see a comfortable win for us here this time. I can't predict which Melbourne would turn up - at their best they could be dangerous. Gawn would be a real worry for our rucks.

I hope they give Aliir a run against Carlton - he can slot into so many places. Give Hayward the two weeks rest to try and put some bloody muscles into those arms and core so he can stick a tackle.

Shame Richmond and Port don't play first. As if they win its a dead rubber and we could've rested everyone who needs it as well as getting a game into all the possible reserves we might use.

 

[McRobie]

Avoiding Adelaide till the Grand Final is best case scenario.

I'd want to avoid gws more than Adelaide.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[mikey_san]

I like the scenario where Saints beat Richmond and we play the Dons the first final, and Port the second. GWS in Sydney for the prelim with a massive pro Swans crowd at Homebush and then the GF....

 

[mikey_san]

I'd want to avoid gws more than Adelaide.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

We might have more of a chance with the umps against GWS in Sydney otherwise I'd agree. IF the prelim was at Homebush and not Spotless that is.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hawks can still make it

Thankfully not now!

 

[Tedeski]

We just have to keep winning.
That's not out of the question for us & we've done the job interstate too.

 

[Grongey]

Essendon would be my preference over Melbourne tbh. Without their two speedy forwards in Fantasia and Green I see a comfortable win for us here this time. I can't predict which Melbourne would turn up - at their best they could be dangerous. Gawn would be a real worry for our rucks.
I hope they give Aliir a run against Carlton - he can slot into so many places. Give Hayward the two weeks rest to try and put some bloody muscles into those arms and core so he can stick a tackle.
Shame Richmond and Port don't play first. As if they win its a dead rubber and we could've rested everyone who needs it as well as getting a game into all the possible reserves we might use.

Agree, it's time to give Aliir a run. He had 8 marks and three goals this week in the NEAFL. Also James Rose had 32 touches and four goals. Harry Cunningham had 20 disposals and a goal.

Against Carlton is the perfect time to give these boys a run. Young Hayward was shown up under finals like pressure against the Crows.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Gee our life really looks a lot better if GWS can beat Geelong. Assuming Port beat Gold Coast by at least as much as we beat Carlton.

 

[Olian]

Here is the top half of the ladder after round 3 compared to round 22.

Although there has been a slight shuffle in placings since round 3 only the Bulldogs dropping out and being replaced with the Swans.

For all the talk of a close season the majority of the 8 was set very early on.

The Swans run home from round 7 has shown how impressive an effort it was just to make the final 8.

Position Round 3 Round 22
1 Adelaide Adelaide
2 Richmond GWS
3 Geelong Geelong
4 Port Richmond
5 GWS Port
6 West Coast Sydney
7 Essendon Melbourne
8 Melbourne Essendon
9 Western Bulldogs West Coast

 

[Tedeski]

Interesting read this thread.
Just 3 more wins. Chip away, chip away!

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Interesting read this thread.
Just 3 more wins. Chip away, chip away!

Aye. One game at a time.

 

[Skeparovic]

Damn the rollar coaster ride was fun whilst it lasted. Pity it has come to a stop.

Congratulations Swans players and coaches for an amazing effort to get into finals from a never seen before position of 0-6. Remarkable turn around despite the disappointing end to the season.

Still very proud of this team. Go Swans for 2018!

 

[The King!]

Last two losses we responded well, bring on next week

 

[Kirkswan]

Oops! We fell off...

 

[Jewelsbon]

Damn the rollar coaster ride was fun whilst it lasted. Pity it has come to a stop.

Congratulations Swans players and coaches for an amazing effort to get into finals from a never seen before position of 0-6. Remarkable turn around despite the disappointing end to the season.

Still very proud of this team. Go Swans for 2018!

Great post Skeparovic, I wholeheartedly agree

I'm a very positive person by nature and whilst it was sad to see us go out with barely a whimper, I love this team and am proud of the fact that they still managed to give us something to cheer about!

Also gotta say, I don't mind having a cheap September every now and then, grand finals are so freaking expensive!!!!!