Preview Wally casts an eye over the field

[Super Hans]

Buddy's ankle was irrelevant.

Bullshit. Would Bontempelli's ankle be irrelevant if he rolled it in the first? I'm not defending Sydney cos we deserved the flag but that changes the game.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Bullshit. Would Bontempelli's ankle be irrelevant if he rolled it in the first? I'm not defending Sydney cos we deserved the flag but that changes the game.

Didn't change the game one bit. Went up, Had a jab, no issue. Same as Bonts hip in the prelim. Same as many other incidences in a game of footy every week.
You're believing the media narrative a little too much.

Buddy's ankle was completely irrelevant.

 

[TempleKelvington]

They're the same height and Griffen started as a HBF type.

The last ex-Bulldogs captain inside mid who moved tot he backline is an AA Premiership player, so it's not a crazy suggestion.

Certainly not crazy at all. He'd be a be a great off half back. They could end up with him and Delidio coming out of the back line. Not bad, not JJ and Wood of course, but not bad.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Here is an interesting stat for you Wally and also a direct
contrast in the two teams you have reviewed GWS and
Sydney.

Running Bounces (2016) Players Ranked in the top 100.
Sydney- 2 players ranked for 20 bounces in total.
GWS- 12 players ranked for 280 bounces in total.


(2012) Premiership year.
Sydney- 5 players ranked for 198 bounces in total.
(Though most have left or been traded)

Forget all these stats. The real stat you should be looking at is premiers and smothers. I'm unable to find it, but I'm telling you, there's a strong correlation.

 

[Yojimbo]

Forget all these stats. The real stat you should be looking at is premiers and smothers. I'm unable to find it, but I'm telling you, there's a strong correlation.

Are you trying to "smother" my love of obscure stats that pinpoint
the weakness of the Sydney team in direct comparison to the
teams who beat them for fun.

Oh the Dogs had 10 players in the top 100 for Bounces for
a total of 137 by the way a lot more than 20. Would the
"smother" be included as a one percent action ?

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Are you trying to "smother" my love of obscure stats that pinpoint
the weakness of the Sydney team in direct comparison to the
teams who beat them for fun.

Oh the Dogs had 10 players in the top 100 for Bounces for
a total of 137 by the way a lot more than 20. Would the
"smother" be included as a one percent action ?

Not sure, if it is that's a bit of a cop out by the statistician. Spoils and smothers are very different actions, often completed by different players on the ground and thus, shouldn't be linked. I've searched high and low for smother stats. Can't find them anywhere. Dahl, Hunter and Libba would be right up there.

 

[BRWB]

Adams would have been a great Buddy matchup. Injuries happen.... still think GWS are the bigger threat.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IIRC Adams played on Buddy during the season, kicked 5 and was just about BOG.

Sure Buddy and Allir were injured- so was Stringer, T Boyd, Morris, Murphy, Wood. Suckling, Adams and Crameri was suspended.

We had far more important players hurt.

Injury gods did us no favours. Buddy rolling an ankle didn't even come close to evening the odds.

Makes it all the sweeter.

 

[Yojimbo]

Not sure, if it is that's a bit of a cop out by the statistician. Spoils and smothers are very different actions, often completed by different players on the ground and thus, shouldn't be linked. I've searched high and low for smother stats. Can't find them anywhere. Dahl, Hunter and Libba would be right up there.

One Percenters :
Selfless acts by players such as smothers, knock-ons, shepherds,
spoils and chases, which are often not recognised in official
statistics, but are invaluable to teams. Coaches extol their
players to commit to putting in as many such efforts as
possible often saying they are the difference between
winning and losing.
One Percenters (2016) ladder (by average).
1- Port Adelaide 61.9
2- Hawthorn 56.5
3- Western Bulldogs 50.1
4- Brisbane 50.1
5- GWS 49.4
6- Collingwood 48.9
7- Sydney 48.7
8- Gold Coast 47.7
9- Adelaide 47.5
10- Essendon 46.7
11- Fremantle 46.6
12- Carlton 45.9
13- Geelong 45.8
14- West Coast 45.7
15- Melbourne 44.9
16- North Melbourne 44.4
17- St Kilda 42.8
18- Richmond 40.8

Gee Brisbane in fourth equal with the Dogs, seems about
as relevant as Buddy's ankle.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

One Percenters :
Selfless acts by players such as smothers, knock-ons, shepherds,
spoils and chases, which are often not recognised in official
statistics, but are invaluable to teams. Coaches extol their
players to commit to putting in as many such efforts as
possible often saying they are the difference between
winning and losing.
One Percenters (2016) ladder (by average).
1- Port Adelaide 61.9
2- Hawthorn 56.5
3- Western Bulldogs 50.1
4- Brisbane 50.1
5- GWS 49.4
6- Collingwood 48.9
7- Sydney 48.7
8- Gold Coast 47.7
9- Adelaide 47.5
10- Essendon 46.7
11- Fremantle 46.6
12- Carlton 45.9
13- Geelong 45.8
14- West Coast 45.7
15- Melbourne 44.9
16- North Melbourne 44.4
17- St Kilda 42.8
18- Richmond 40.8

Gee Brisbane in fourth equal with the Dogs, seems about
as relevant as Buddy's knee.

Ankle...
Smothers are what I'm after.

If you include chases, of course Brisbane are up there.

 

[Yojimbo]

Ankle...
Smothers are what I'm after.

If you include chases, of course Brisbane are up there.

I have edited to ankle, just to appease and because knee was
wrong. Smothers are in there, but will forever remain a mystery
like the Bermuda triangle and crop circles.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Ankle...
Smothers are what I'm after.

If you include chases, of course Brisbane are up there.

Are you after just kicks that are smothered or are you interested in h/balls that get smothered as well? They can be a lot harder to pick up as the majority of them happen in tight packs.

 

[Yojimbo]

Not sure, if it is that's a bit of a cop out by the statistician. Spoils and smothers are very different actions, often completed by different players on the ground and thus, shouldn't be linked. I've searched high and low for smother stats. Can't find them anywhere. Dahl, Hunter and Libba would be right up there.

Lachie Hunter- 26 Games for 39 One Percenters.
Thomas Liberatore- 21 Games for 27 One Percenters.
Luke Dahlhaus- 21 games for 22 One Percenters.

Given the parameters stated for One Percenters these
stats don't give you a lot of wriggle room for "Smothers".
Or maybe they are all "Smothers".

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

They're the team to beat imo. No matter how you spin it if Buddy doesn't roll his ankle in the GF they could have been premiers.

I know he was off for a few minutes getting it looked at but I thought he was unhindered when back on the ground. So I think his ankle injury was a bit of a beat-up and had no bearing on the result. I mean, his opponent for some of the game, Morris, had a broken back so make of that what you will.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Lachie Hunter- 26 Games for 39 One Percenters.
Thomas Liberatore- 21 Games for 27 One Percenters.
Luke Dahlhaus- 21 games for 22 One Percenters.

Given the parameters stated for One Percenters these
stats don't give you a lot of wriggle room for "Smothers".
Or maybe they are all "Smothers".

Smother stats will be low. If you hit 10 in a game for a team that's extremely high.

Are you after just kicks that are smothered or are you interested in h/balls that get smothered as well? They can be a lot harder to pick up as the majority of them happen in tight packs.

Kick.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

Thread went off track a bit there...anyone else want to offer their thoughts on where the Swans will finish up?

 

[maddog37]

I think the Swans will live and die on what Buddy and Tippet do. If they both stay fit and in form then they are the real deal.

 

[WallyStringhaus]

I think the Swans will live and die on what Buddy and Tippet do. If they both stay fit and in form then they are the real deal.

How do you reckon Tippet will go after his forgettable finals series last year? He's building quite the resume of September stinkers...

 

[maddog37]

How do you reckon Tippet will go after his forgettable finals series last year? He's building quite the resume of September stinkers...

He could come good as a ruckman or do a Corey McKernan and totally lose it. Hard to say but it is a make or break year for him in a lot of ways.

 

[Dry Rot]

I think the Swans will live and die on what Buddy and Tippet do. If they both stay fit and in form then they are the real deal.

I'd add Grundy and maybe Rampe to that list.

 

[Yojimbo]

I'd add Grundy and maybe Rampe to that list.

Don't underestimate the importance of Sam Naismith the
developing ruckman in freeing up Kurt Tippett to play a
lot more as a key forward and Aliir Aliir is exciting as
well as being a unique why did you say that twice type
of name.

 

[Dry Rot]

why did you say that twice type
of name.

Please clarify.

 

[Leon]

Thread went off track a bit there...anyone else want to offer their thoughts on where the Swans will finish up?

I'd be very surprised if they didn't finish in the top 4 again.

This would be how I'd categorize each team this year:


Adelaide - Definitely a flag chance. It all went off the rails for them in the last game of the home and away season in 2016, prior to that they were looking the goods.

Brisbane - Cannon fodder again. It's year one under a new coach. Fans need to realize this and be patient

Carlton - Think they'll improve slightly. No chance of finals but might push to 10th-11th. A work in progress

Collingwood - In big trouble. Buckley has topped up because he knows if he can't make the finals he's gone. I actually don't think Buckley is a bad coach but he cannot stay on if they don't make finals.

Essendon - Going to make a smokey call and predict they'll improve by riding on the wave of their returning stars coming back in. Outside chance for the 8.

Freo - No where near it. Fyfe coming back will be handy, but their list is still rubbish and can't score. Bottom 4

Geelong - Overachieved in 2016 based on Dangerfield's season. He'll need to replicate that for them to be any chance, but they got found out against the Swans in the PF, so even if they make it into deep September again, think they'll go down again.

Gold Coast - Potential for improvement if they get a better run with injuries and Ablett can stay fit. Feel sorry for Rocket handling that bunch of players though. They're talented, but they don't really want it enough.

GWS - Obviously very much a threat. Hopefully they get some injuries which, unlike us in 2016, cripples them. Excellent side

Hawthorn - It's over for them. They will slide out of the 8 and stay out for a few years. Get Clarkson to rebuild them as he did when they first signed him up and they'll be fine

Melbourne - Got to be marked harshly if they don't make the 8. Goodwin will be a good coach for them. I think they will make it. A team on the rise

Norf - In for a world of pain (hehehe). Midfield way too slow, one dimensional and vanilla. Will finish bottom four, Scott will go. Hopefully year one of many years in the wilderness

Port - Along with Buckley and Scott at Norf, Hinkley will be under pressure this year. They were the feel good story when he first came along and they were exciting to watch, but last two years have been mediocre. Will they get rid of him if they don't make the 8?

Richmond - Add Hardwick to the list of coaches in the gun (he already was, but this year even more so). I don't see them improving.

Saints - Like the way they have rebuilt. Maybe a year or two off challenging. Should be expecting to play finals

Swans - No real reason for them to slide. Still one of the best lists going round. Top 4 yet again

West Coast - Can definitely see them challenging. Played their worst game for the year against us in the finals, before that were looking ominous. Top 4 chance

 

[X_box_X]

Following on from Leon's idea.

Adelaide
They are serious contenders and are above average to strong in all areas of the field. They have the most dangerous forward line in the competition and an improving midfield. Their defence is also a strength, as long as they can keep Laird and Smith fit and healthy. At times in 2016 I thought they were the best team in the competition. Big premiership chance.

Brisbane
A big chance to win the Wooden Spoon.

Carlton
They are tough to judge. I can't see them making the finals, but I reckon they're better than a bottom four team. They enjoyed a purple patch towards the second third of 2016 when they won six out of seven games, including a victory over Geelong. I actually thought their patch of good form started from the second half of the match they played against us in round four.

Collingwood
They are one of about six teams who I have fighting for the last two spots in the eight. They easily could have beaten us twice last year, and they enjoyed wins over finalists GWS, Geelong and West Coast. They also easily could have beaten Hawthorn in the final round. I expect them to improve on last year with the additions of Wells and Hoskin Elliot.

Essendon
Another team in the mix who will be the feel good story of 2017 with thousands of pairs of eyes keenly watching them to see how they respond to the turmoil of 2016. I'm looking as forward to seeing Andy McGrath hit the AFL stage as I am about seeing Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson and Michael Hurley return to the field.

Fremantle
Yet another team in the mix to jump into the eight, and I reckon they are the leading candidates. I don't share Leon's view that they have a poor list. They won the minor premiership 12 months prior to finishing 16th. They have some serious talent in their team and an incredibly strong midfield. Players like Fyfe, Mundy, Neale, Hill and Bennell are super talented. They recruited well with the additions of Brad Hill and Hamling. If they can get 20 games each out of their veterans and key players Sandilands and Johnson, they will be hard to knock out of the top eight. Look out for Hayden Crozier to emerge into a very good consistent player in 2017.

Geelong
They are extremely difficult to read. Part of me thinks they're good enough to win the flag, while part of me wouldn't be all that surprised if they missed the eight. Geelong performed so well against every other finalist last year apart from Sydney. They also disappointed big time in their losses against Carlton, Collingwood and St. Kilda, while almost losing to Richmond. No other finalist last year lost as many games as Geelong did to teams who didn't play finals. I am considering them safe for the finals, who are in premiership contention.

Gold Coast
I could see them challenging Brisbane for the Wooden Spoon, despite the abundance of talent they have. It's hard to fathom a team of players consisting of Ablett, Lynch, Swallow, Hall, Hanley, Martin, Miller, Harbrow, Malceski and Day would be challenging for the Spoon, but I think there are issues at the Gold Coast that are affecting their on field performances. They appear to have (or at least did have) issues with their medical staff. If you can't keep your soldiers fit and they aren't receiving the right advice for rehab, then you're going to be struggling to tread water let alone compete.

GWS
Very overrated team who are receiving way too much fanfare. They have had one good season, big deal. Yes, they have talent, but they are an experiment, and science experiments can sometimes blow up. They had a fairly good year in 2016, but it was overrated. They lost games to Melbourne and Collingwood last year - the equal most losses by a finalist to non-finalists except Geelong. They are one of six teams fighting for the final two spots in the eight.

Hawthorn
Write them off at your peril. They have the best coach in the league who is always staying ahead of the times. The addition of Roughead will be enormous. The additions of Mitchell and JOM will help fill the void lost by the departures of Sam Mitchell and Lewis. They are getting on in age, but they are too experienced and talented to write off. It will be a truly amazing effort if they could win another flag. Hawthorn proved in 1991 they you can't write off a champion team. I was too young to remember, and am happy to be corrected, but apparently after their dominant period between 1983 and 1989, almost everyone had written them off after they got knocked out in the first week of the finals in 1990. Most people thought it was the end of an amazing era. They had one last effort left in them where they went on to win the flag in 1991, and they still remained very competitive until 1994. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if 2017 is their 1991.

Melbourne
Another team fighting for the last two spots in the eight. They are building something special at Melbourne. I would love to see them return to finals for the first time since 2006. They're a chance to get there, but I reckon they may fall a game short. Watch them go on a roller coaster ride where they are bouncing from being inside the eight to dropping out on almost a weekly basis. They will win games they aren't expected to win and lose games they are expected to win. Until they find that consistency, they won't be finalists.

North Melbourne
They could easily finish bottom four, and the look on Brad Scott's face will be priceless.

Port Adelaide
For the third year running, they will be in a dog fight to make the eight. Their list in good enough to sneak into finals, but it's not good enough to challenge for a flag even if they did make it. They were less than a straight kick away from a Grand Final in 2014, but a lot went right for them that year, and teams worked them out in 2015. They finished 9th in 2015 and 10th in 2016. I reckon they will finish around the same mark in 2017.

Richmond
I feel very confident in placing Richmond 14th to 17th. Martin, Rance, Prestia, Cotchin and Riewoldt will ensure they don't win the Spoon, and ensure they will win up to eight games.

St. Kilda
I have them joining Freo as being the other team to come into the top eight, at the expense of GWS and North. They have some serious young talent, combined with the experience of Riewoldt, Montagna and Dempster (who are all still playing well despite being 32+). The addition of Carlisle should be massive. Throw in Bruce and Membrey, and there is massive tall marking power there. They beat the Bulldogs and Geelong last year, and easily could have beaten other finalists in Hawthorn and North (had it not been for dodgey umpiring decisions). Obviously they will need to win more than two games against fellow top eight teams in 2017, but I can't see why they can't win about 12 to 13 games and sneak into September.

Sydney
Super talented and a serious premiership threat. Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery IMO is the best midfield trio in the game. Throw Heeney into the mix and that will be a super talented Awesome Foursome for 2017. I love how solid their defence is. Rampe and Smith are the best small defensive duo in the league. Buddy and Tippett marking everything inside fifty and kicking goals. They are hard to fault.

West Coast
Another premiership contender. They will be incredibly tough to beat in Perth. I acknowledge they won't have Nic Nat for most of the season, but don't be surprised if he returns to the field in about July. Get a few games into him before the finals, and they could go the distance. Mitchell and Priddis in the same team will be interesting to see (similar players in that they are big ball winners, slow by foot, but quick by mind and hand). A few of their players were down on form in 2016 (compared to 2015) - one player in particular I am looking forward to seeing return to the form he displayed in 2015 is Chris Masten. Look out for Elliot Yeo to turn into a star.

In summary, I reckon the six teams competing for the flag are Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs.

 

[Yojimbo]

Please clarify.

Aliir Aliir, why did you say that twice ? i did not that
is his name. Sorry attempted humour, very poor i
know.

 

[Hard Ball Get]

Following on from Leon's idea.

Adelaide
They are serious contenders and are above average to strong in all areas of the field. They have the most dangerous forward line in the competition and an improving midfield. Their defence is also a strength, as long as they can keep Laird and Smith fit and healthy. At times in 2016 I thought they were the best team in the competition. Big premiership chance.

Brisbane
A big chance to win the Wooden Spoon.

Carlton
They are tough to judge. I can't see them making the finals, but I reckon they're better than a bottom four team. They enjoyed a purple patch towards the second third of 2016 when they won six out of seven games, including a victory over Geelong. I actually thought their patch of good form started from the second half of the match they played against us in round four.

Collingwood
They are one of about six teams who I have fighting for the last two spots in the eight. They easily could have beaten us twice last year, and they enjoyed wins over finalists GWS, Geelong and West Coast. They also easily could have beaten Hawthorn in the final round. I expect them to improve on last year with the additions of Wells and Hoskin Elliot.

Essendon
Another team in the mix who will be the feel good story of 2017 with thousands of pairs of eyes keenly watching them to see how they respond to the turmoil of 2016. I'm looking as forward to seeing Andy McGrath hit the AFL stage as I am about seeing Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson and Michael Hurley return to the field.

Fremantle
Yet another team in the mix to jump into the eight, and I reckon they are the leading candidates. I don't share Leon's view that they have a poor list. They won the minor premiership 12 months prior to finishing 16th. They have some serious talent in their team and an incredibly strong midfield. Players like Fyfe, Mundy, Neale, Hill and Bennell are super talented. They recruited well with the additions of Brad Hill and Hamling. If they can get 20 games each out of their veterans and key players Sandilands and Johnson, they will be hard to knock out of the top eight. Look out for Hayden Crozier to emerge into a very good consistent player in 2017.

Geelong
They are extremely difficult to read. Part of me thinks they're good enough to win the flag, while part of me wouldn't be all that surprised if they missed the eight. Geelong performed so well against every other finalist last year apart from Sydney. They also disappointed big time in their losses against Carlton, Collingwood and St. Kilda, while almost losing to Richmond. No other finalist last year lost as many games as Geelong did to teams who didn't play finals. I am considering them safe for the finals, who are in premiership contention.

Gold Coast
I could see them challenging Brisbane for the Wooden Spoon, despite the abundance of talent they have. It's hard to fathom a team of players consisting of Ablett, Lynch, Swallow, Hall, Hanley, Martin, Miller, Harbrow, Malceski and Day would be challenging for the Spoon, but I think there are issues at the Gold Coast that are affecting their on field performances. They appear to have (or at least did have) issues with their medical staff. If you can't keep your soldiers fit and they aren't receiving the right advice for rehab, then you're going to be struggling to tread water let alone compete.

GWS
Very overrated team who are receiving way too much fanfare. They have had one good season, big deal. Yes, they have talent, but they are an experiment, and science experiments can sometimes blow up. They had a fairly good year in 2016, but it was overrated. They lost games to Melbourne and Collingwood last year - the equal most losses by a finalist to non-finalists except Geelong. They are one of six teams fighting for the final two spots in the eight.

Hawthorn
Write them off at your peril. They have the best coach in the league who is always staying ahead of the times. The addition of Roughead will be enormous. The additions of Mitchell and JOM will help fill the void lost by the departures of Sam Mitchell and Lewis. They are getting on in age, but they are too experienced and talented to write off. It will be a truly amazing effort if they could win another flag. Hawthorn proved in 1991 they you can't write off a champion team. I was too young to remember, and am happy to be corrected, but apparently after their dominant period between 1983 and 1989, almost everyone had written them off after they got knocked out in the first week of the finals in 1990. Most people thought it was the end of an amazing era. They had one last effort left in them where they went on to win the flag in 1991, and they still remained very competitive until 1994. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if 2017 is their 1991.

Melbourne
Another team fighting for the last two spots in the eight. They are building something special at Melbourne. I would love to see them return to finals for the first time since 2006. They're a chance to get there, but I reckon they may fall a game short. Watch them go on a roller coaster ride where they are bouncing from being inside the eight to dropping out on almost a weekly basis. They will win games they aren't expected to win and lose games they are expected to win. Until they find that consistency, they won't be finalists.

North Melbourne
They could easily finish bottom four, and the look on Brad Scott's face will be priceless.

Port Adelaide
For the third year running, they will be in a dog fight to make the eight. Their list in good enough to sneak into finals, but it's not good enough to challenge for a flag even if they did make it. They were less than a straight kick away from a Grand Final in 2014, but a lot went right for them that year, and teams worked them out in 2015. They finished 9th in 2015 and 10th in 2016. I reckon they will finish around the same mark in 2017.

Richmond
I feel very confident in placing Richmond 14th to 17th. Martin, Rance, Prestia, Cotchin and Riewoldt will ensure they don't win the Spoon, and ensure they will win up to eight games.

St. Kilda
I have them joining Freo as being the other team to come into the top eight, at the expense of GWS and North. They have some serious young talent, combined with the experience of Riewoldt, Montagna and Dempster (who are all still playing well despite being 32+). The addition of Carlisle should be massive. Throw in Bruce and Membrey, and there is massive tall marking power there. They beat the Bulldogs and Geelong last year, and easily could have beaten other finalists in Hawthorn and North (had it not been for dodgey umpiring decisions). Obviously they will need to win more than two games against fellow top eight teams in 2017, but I can't see why they can't win about 12 to 13 games and sneak into September.

Sydney
Super talented and a serious premiership threat. Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery IMO is the best midfield trio in the game. Throw Heeney into the mix and that will be a super talented Awesome Foursome for 2017. I love how solid their defence is. Rampe and Smith are the best small defensive duo in the league. Buddy and Tippett marking everything inside fifty and kicking goals. They are hard to fault.

West Coast
Another premiership contender. They will be incredibly tough to beat in Perth. I acknowledge they won't have Nic Nat for most of the season, but don't be surprised if he returns to the field in about July. Get a few games into him before the finals, and they could go the distance. Mitchell and Priddis in the same team will be interesting to see (similar players in that they are big ball winners, slow by foot, but quick by mind and hand). A few of their players were down on form in 2016 (compared to 2015) - one player in particular I am looking forward to seeing return to the form he displayed in 2015 is Chris Masten. Look out for Elliot Yeo to turn into a star.

In summary, I reckon the six teams competing for the flag are Adelaide, Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs.

Wait, GWS aren't competing for the flag? Even if their overall list isn't as amazing as everyone says, you can't seriously believe this?

Our prelim win was amazing... it was amazing because we played brilliant footy to beat a team that was playing brilliant footy. They were a kick away from beating us in a prelim. I rate us very highly. They're a good side, even if not as good as people assure saying, they're certainly in the mix.