Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[Saint]

Ukraine has the momentum, I'd rather that continue without changing the status quo.
The risk would be Russia mass mobilised millions, AND China decides it's time for Taiwan at the same time.

No thanks.

If China invades Taiwan, NATO won't really be involved, there's not enough room in the area for the amount of US assets which could be brought to bear. It won't be a land war, like Ukraine, so the assets used will be totally different. The US Navy is nowhere near Ukraine. Also, the EU can easily handle Russia without US help if they want to. The EU will keep up the momentum for Ukraine if the US is distracted. It's wishful thinking by the Russians that China would open up another front.

 

[Cap]

The missile targets have little strategic value. It's just Putin having a tantrum because things aren't working out for him.

That's what I mean. In the face of all these losses and if rumours are true, more in the next few days, they would be using them strategically and actually helping.

But he's not, he is a coward hiding in his bunker potting civilians like a true terrorist.

 

[LittleG]

If China invades Taiwan, NATO won't really be involved, there's not enough room in the area for the amount of US assets which could be brought to bear. It won't be a land war, like Ukraine, so the assets used will be totally different. The US Navy is nowhere near Ukraine. Also, the EU can easily handle Russia without US help if they want to. The EU will keep up the momentum for Ukraine if the US is distracted. It's wishful thinking by the Russians that China would open up another front.

The only front that China will open, is the one where they retake Eastern Russia. This is the only logical area China can invade without heavy losses.

I use the word retake, as it was part of the Chinese empire prior to Russia preSoviet times invading it.

 

[wannabejack]

With this attack on Poland western nations need to maintain and step up their supply of air defences to Ukraine.

 

[Saint]

The only front that China will open, is the one where they retake Eastern Russia. This is the only logical area China can invade without heavy losses.

Yep, and China has ties to eastern Russia (Outer Manchuria in particular) which are closer and deeper (though less recent) than their ties to Taiwan. If they can't logistically get to a few hundred kms from Moscow, imagine trying to get supplies to Outer Manchuria.....

 

[Mobbs]

Ukraine has the momentum, I'd rather that continue without changing the status quo.
The risk would be Russia mass mobilised millions, AND China decides it's time for Taiwan at the same time.

No thanks.

There's also risk inherent in giving RF reason to expect NATO are scared to interfere. That can translate to more innocent people abused unhomed and/or murdered.

 

[LittleG]

Yep, and China has ties to eastern Russia (Outer Manchuria in particular) which are closer and deeper (though less recent) than their ties to Taiwan. If they can't logistically get to a few hundred kms from Moscow, imagine trying to get supplies to Outer Manchuria.....

There are 2 railroads that supply the Eastern half of the country. China could bomb them with their fighter jets or missiles….

Then all the territory is theirs for the taking. ALL of it!

No one else will intervene and it will be up to Putin to decide on IF they press the button or not. I doubt they would and will accept the loss of territory begrudgingly.

 

[Saint]

There are 2 railroads that supply the Eastern half of the country. China could bomb them with their fighter jets or missiles….

Then all the territory is theirs for the taking. ALL of it!

No one else will intervene and it will be up to Putin to decide on IF they press the button or not. I doubt they would and will accept the loss of territory begrudgingly.

I mean, Russia could send their Pacific Fleet, but their land forces in the east are probably already depleted of their best and brightest. It would be relatively easy pickings.

 

[Profop]

Does it still count as a world war if it's a lot of countries versus just one country?

Also how long does it have to last to count as a world war because if NATO does get involved it's all going to be over pretty damn quickly

 

[Baldur]

I have been thinking about what would it make sense for Poland to do about this, not what they would like to do but what do they think the US would back them in doing.

Placing SAM's close to the Ukraine border or even some distance inside Ukraine to "protect NATO from stray Russian missiles", while shooting down every Russian missile in said SAM's range.

In effect helping to protect Lviv as well as Poland.

 

[LittleG]

I have been thinking about what would it make sense for Poland to do about this, not what they would like to do but what do they think the US would back them in doing.

Placing SAM's close to the Ukraine border or even some distance inside Ukraine to "protect NATO from stray Russian missiles", while shooting down every Russian missile in said SAM's range.

In effect helping to protect Lviv as well as Poland.

That is a good proportional response. I like it.

 

[Zidane98]

Yep, for sure Estonia and Latvia have loudly supported Ukraine and even taken some semi-aggressive measures re Russia, including enforcing the sanctions over goods transportation to Kaliningrad, a lot of media about raising forces and even defensive borderline infrastructure. Their political statements have been tantamount to vitriolic.

All that said, I probably would have worded a statement more formally, though the message would still be so clear. "We are a member state of NATO alongside Poland and are fully intent on playing our part in offering our neighbours support when necessary."

And Poland have to say "ouch" first, before any escalation can really happen.

I also do think NATO do a massive amount of pacing outside the perimeter and snarling without acting - there is some chance that even a fully culpable Russia would get simply a "this is your last warning ... again!"

Worth noting that Moldova cracked the shits at the Kremlin for firing cruise missiles over Moldovan airspace at Ukranian targets from the Black Sea. Imagine the fallout if one of Vlad's cruise missiles malfunctioned and impacted in Moldova.