Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

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I'm not sure what the point you are trying to prove is here. Russia has taken a huge hit on oil & gas. This is a fact. Russia has had to ramp up interest rates massively. This is a fact.

What exactly are you on about? You seem upset about Russia being painted as a loser in this war.
Your ability to reflect is radical.
 

Saint

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Your ability to reflect is radical.

Unless they were making 41% profit last year, this revenue drop is huge, to the point where they might nearly be losing money. They're certainly selling it for a lot less than they could potentially be getting without sanctions.

They're also getting paid mostly in Yuan, after rejecting India's insistence in paying in Rupees, they settled for Chinese Yuan. The lack of anyone trading in Rubles is also a big financial problem.

It's happening, just slower than anyone would like. And the Russian Govt cuts on spending haven't started to bite too hard yet, but that will also get worse.
 

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Unless they were making 41% profit last year, this revenue drop is huge, to the point where they might nearly be losing money. They're certainly selling it for a lot less than they could potentially be getting without sanctions.

They're also getting paid mostly in Yuan, after rejecting India's insistence in paying in Rupees, they settled for Chinese Yuan. The lack of anyone trading in Rubles is also a big financial problem.

It's happening, just slower than anyone would like. And the Russian Govt cuts on spending haven't started to bite too hard yet, but that will also get worse.
Hopefully
 
I get jealous point. Lol autocorrect. I get Jello_B 's point!

We all here have been prone to some hyperbole. Theys not saying Rf is fine and coasting. They're saying they're not 120% Ice Age dodos either.

Most pro Ukrainian bloggers do accept that RF can do this a long time. Eventually they'll lose internal support. But the can do this until that point. And Putin might he OK with that.

Having kind of decisioned himself into a sort of corner, his ego might tell him he has to.

Ukraine have been exceptional, but they must continue to receive strong support.

A lot of surmising in my words. Don't take word for word.



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Btw my contacts in Russia still drink coca cola if they want. It's just imported from the stans. But air travel is less available, and petrol is steep. Just Some examples.

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I'm surprised petrol is steep with low prices of Urals oil.
 
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Sanctions were always going to be a slow burn, rather than a dramatic explosion. Aircraft incidents are triple this year compared to last, cars are harder to get and service. Leaving aside sabotage, trains are going to have the same maintenance problems, since bearings etc. it's a limited number that need to be split between them and the military. Just maintenance in general is now (even considering Russia's lesser OH&S standards) less than pre-war due to all the men conscripted.

The big one, with sanctions, that's working to a good degree, is Russia not getting enough high tech goods of top quality, to up tank / IFV production to a rate that exceeds losses. As long as this stays the same, then the old stores they are tapping (ignoring they are generally going to bring back older and older (and shittier) equipment) will run dry in a year or two, then they will just be meat waves versus armour.

Russia can hold on another 18 - 24 months before they hit a cliff, but that cliff is coming and as long as Western Aid remains for that time it's unavoidable. Hit it and they still don't lose in a day, but it'll be an accelerating string of setbacks, where it will be obvious to all the longer they try and hold on, the worse they'll be. Unless Putin dies, unfortunately it's likely to only be at that point, of a clearly unavoidable loss, that Russia withdraws, to salvage what equipment they do have. Either that or Putin goes crazy and does drop tactical nukes.
 
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I'm surprised petrol is steep with low prices of Urals oil.
I read a lot about it and unfortunately can't remember it all now. I think it's more about supply so perhaps it's a production line issue. That would suggest efficacy of sanctions. I'll try to research.

I think the biggest threat to the RF invasion machine still remains the mounting deaths versus public opinion. People are still afraid to say no to war out loud, but they are starting to demand at least return, leave and remuneration conditions for their mobilised families.

I'll have to go back and find my evidence later. At a pub right now.

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Russia will never want for the basics. Its a huge country with every resource it can produce its self, and lots of basic consumer goods it can import from china anyway. Thats not the point of the sanctions really.
 

Baldur

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Vlad wants Russian mums to have big families:



I'm interested to see what ridiculous decrees he can sign to enforce this goal...


He might try these ideas

 

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Unless they were making 41% profit last year, this revenue drop is huge, to the point where they might nearly be losing money. They're certainly selling it for a lot less than they could potentially be getting without sanctions.

They're also getting paid mostly in Yuan, after rejecting India's insistence in paying in Rupees, they settled for Chinese Yuan. The lack of anyone trading in Rubles is also a big financial problem.

It's happening, just slower than anyone would like. And the Russian Govt cuts on spending haven't started to bite too hard yet, but that will also get worse.

Russia's growth is going to stay stagnant and inflation about to get worse as a result of these Putler implementations.



 

This is a big deal. This is the strongest goods connection between China and Russia. In terms of road/rail, there are not many such options. The tunnel is very long, and the explosion is deep within, suggeting it'll take some fixing.

Baza (the TG which the Twitter is quoting) is a good source imo.
 

Why the **** are they even letting him speak? Russia isnt even part of the Human Rights Council after being kicked out last year. Its just making them look stupid.

The West is so insipid. Heres another example last week where Blowfish Lavrov owned them. Estonia was supposed to be the next chair but Lavrov who shouldn’t have been allowed to attend in the first place had the congregation eating out of his hands and forced the OSCE to relent. Weak pr***.

 
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jatz14

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Sanctions were always going to be a slow burn, rather than a dramatic explosion. Aircraft incidents are triple this year compared to last, cars are harder to get and service. Leaving aside sabotage, trains are going to have the same maintenance problems, since bearings etc. it's a limited number that need to be split between them and the military. Just maintenance in general is now (even considering Russia's lesser OH&S standards) less than pre-war due to all the men conscripted.

The big one, with sanctions, that's working to a good degree, is Russia not getting enough high tech goods of top quality, to up tank / IFV production to a rate that exceeds losses. As long as this stays the same, then the old stores they are tapping (ignoring they are generally going to bring back older and older (and shittier) equipment) will run dry in a year or two, then they will just be meat waves versus armour.

Russia can hold on another 18 - 24 months before they hit a cliff, but that cliff is coming and as long as Western Aid remains for that time it's unavoidable. Hit it and they still don't lose in a day, but it'll be an accelerating string of setbacks, where it will be obvious to all the longer they try and hold on, the worse they'll be. Unless Putin dies, unfortunately it's likely to only be at that point, of a clearly unavoidable loss, that Russia withdraws, to salvage what equipment they do have. Either that or Putin goes crazy and does drop tactical nukes.
It's not even the cliff that matters.

Just the perception that things will keep getting worse, and no possible outcome of the war is going to recompense it.

That issue is clouded by the fact that when Putin makes that calculation, it's on the basis of him, and he is going to value holding onto power very highly, so he may keep fighting when, for Russia, it makes no sense.

When the equation turns to, Putins power is more threatened by the war continuing than the war ending without a clear Russian victory, that's when he starts negotiating seriously.

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wannabejack

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Still, the frozen assets are only a fraction of the total wealth held by Russians in Switzerland, with the country's banks holding 150 billion francs, according to estimates by the Swiss Bankers Association.
 

wannabejack

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It’s not for no reason that the Ukrainian marine corps’ 36th Brigade has been able to seize, hold and even expand a bridgehead in Krynky on the otherwise Russian-controlled left bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian electronic-warfare crews and drone-operators have taken control of the sky over Krynky—first by grounding Russia’s drones, and then filling the air with Ukraine’s drones.
 
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