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Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

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I feel this is Putin just trolling the US by giving Witkoff the Order of Lenin to pass on to the CIA deputy director whose son died fighting FOR Russia AGAINST Ukraine.
 
What am I missing?

Why does Ukraine have to agree to any bad deal proposed by the US and Russia?
Putin is extorting Trump
Trump will extort Ukraine
Vance and Hegseth are already talking out loud about the US withdrawing support to Ukraine if they do not meet the aggressor’s demands.
The Trump party has become an arm of the Kremlin.
 
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What am I missing?

Why does Ukraine have to agree to any bad deal proposed by the US and Russia?
They don't and obviously won't, but Trump can get petty and withhold any US equipment being purchased for Ukraine or providing satellite or intelligence data again. So the Ukrainians have to try and say Trump you're being an idiot, without coming out and saying Trump you're being an idiot. Russia's position is the usual one with nothing changed. No 'Donbas and Crimea' for the withdrawing from the other two provinces they want.

The Europeans are finally awake and starting to put money into their militaries, but that's not a quick process. Putin knows once the Europeans ramp up to 3.5% GDP (the 1.5% extra to do 5% is garbage, that can be spent on almost anything as 'supporting the military'), that they are overmatched even if the US stops support. So Putin is desperate to get Donny to force Ukraine's hand before enough of that money comes online to make it impossible. Donny being as dumb as he is, still can't see (/doesn't want to see) Russia is weak and his hero Putin is playing a weak hand masterfully against him.
 

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Everything to him is merely a Real Estate transaction
 
It would be so dis-heartening with your country at war and this is the "ally" you need most. Australia should supply no more F35 parts or AUKUS money unless America commits to Ukraine. We should use our leverage on our so-called ally.

I think we're all realising Australia has come to rely on the USA too much and that reliance, as Ukraine found out, isn't worth any treaty any previous administration has signed.

Democracies around the world are using changes of Government to renege on long-term strategic partnerships so they've really lost a lot of value.
 

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Ukraine hits more oil depots, Russia agrees to talk to Trump. This appears to be Russia's sensitive spot. Unfortunately we all know its just an excuse for Trump to agree with his mate Putin that Ukraine should surrender and when they refuse stop all support for Ukraine.

Putin's there for his new statue unveiling

 

I know this is an article on a media site but Ukraine should really pound this at every opportunity before entering into talks.

Not only is it morally right, it's also a weak spot for Trump. If he refuses to consider it as a pre-cursor for negotiations, it just highlights Epstein again.
 

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What am I missing?

Why does Ukraine have to agree to any bad deal proposed by the US and Russia?

You're not missing anything. That's exactly the situation, and it is as dumb and predictable as it sounds.

Trump and Putin will "negotiate" a deal that is amazing for Russia, good for America, and astoundingly terrible for Ukraine. Ukraine will of course not agree to it. Trump will then say that Ukraine is prolonging the conflict and acting as an obstacle to peace, and this will be used as justification for Trump to end all remaining support for Ukraine.

Putin knows this, and this is what he's banking on.
 
An S-500 air defence system in Crimea allegedly taken out by Ukrainian drones.
That's a massive loss of capability for the Russians - in military slang terms they've lost one of the few "land aegis" systems they have.

The new paradigm of using drones to swarm air defenses make this type of detection capacity even more valuable, given that's how they "promoted" most of Russia's Black Seas fleet to submarine.
 
You're not missing anything. That's exactly the situation, and it is as dumb and predictable as it sounds.

Trump and Putin will "negotiate" a deal that is amazing for Russia, good for America, and astoundingly terrible for Ukraine. Ukraine will of course not agree to it. Trump will then say that Ukraine is prolonging the conflict and acting as an obstacle to peace, and this will be used as justification for Trump to end all remaining support for Ukraine.

Putin knows this, and this is what he's banking on.
Hasn’t the US pretty much stopped all financial support already?

My understanding is that the only US aid is those weapon systems the Europeans are buying and passing on to Ukraine. If he stops those then the US Army manufacturers who back the Republican Party aren’t going to be happy at all
 
Hasn’t the US pretty much stopped all financial support already?

My understanding is that the only US aid is those weapon systems the Europeans are buying and passing on to Ukraine. If he stops those then the US Army manufacturers who back the Republican Party aren’t going to be happy at all

The most important support the US is providing at present is intelligence. Basically AWACS and the like are warning the Ukrainians of Russian movements.
 

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Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

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