Europe War in Ukraine

[Rotayjay]

While we've been watching China and Taiwan looking for the next war, it is looking increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin's Russia will invade Ukraine. Will that happen and what would that mean for Ukrainians, the world and Australia?

I think Russia will invade, Biden will wag his finger and say tsk tsk. Then the EU and US impose sanctions and Putin installs a puppet government in Ukraine. That's just me eyeballing the situation without analysing it or being a geopolitics expert.

I just can't see America going to war over an Eastern European country that is not a traditional ally like Australia or France. If they do go to war, all us men of military age would be liable for conscription. There may be nuclear war in the extreme (and extremely unlikely) scenario, and in that case you can kiss your arse goodbye.

 

[yebiga]

While we've been watching China and Taiwan looking for the next war, it is looking increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin's Russia will invade Ukraine. Will that happen and what would that mean for Ukrainians, the world and Australia?

I think Russia will invade, Biden will wag his finger and say tsk tsk. Then the EU and US impose sanctions and Putin installs a puppet government in Ukraine. That's just me eyeballing the situation without analysing it or being a geopolitics expert.

I just can't see America going to war over an Eastern European country that is not a traditional ally like Australia or France. If they do go to war, all us men of military age would be liable for conscription. There may be nuclear war in the extreme (and extremely unlikely) scenario, and in that case you can kiss your arse goodbye.

You know the source of these rumours are Ukraine Intelligence

This vapourous mendacity gets air time but last weeks real failed colour revolution in Kazakstan hardly got a mention.

If you want any honest and thoughtful review of the Russian Zone - warning it's a little pro-Russia and Anti-West but the depth is worth it try: www.thesaker.is

 

[spinynorman]

I think we can now with confidence say that Ukraine is saved, the great fixer of nations is on hand.

 

[Malifice]

You know the source of these rumours are Ukraine Intelligence

This vapourous mendacity gets air time but last weeks real failed colour revolution in Kazakstan hardly got a mention.

If you want any honest and thoughtful review of the Russian Zone - warning it's a little pro-Russia and Anti-West but the depth is worth it try: www.thesaker.is

Yebiga linking to a pro-Russia website? Never!

There will no doubt be an annexation of Ukraine by Russia. The Yanks and EU wont intervene, but there will be serious consequences for the Russians economically.

 

[1990crow]

You'd have to say inevitable at this stage.

 

[ChampRevesby]

The British and Canadians (through NATO) are giving UKR military aid, but Germany is not allowing UK/CAN flights to UKR over their airspace. Maybe the Germans are concerned over their natural gas supply being cut off?

 

[Malifice]

The British and Canadians (through NATO) are giving UKR military aid, but Germany is not allowing UK/CAN flights to UKR over their airspace. Maybe the Germans are concerned over their natural gas supply being cut off?

This guy gets it.

The EU are reliant on energy from either Russia or the Middle East (so also Russia, but mainly the Yanks).

 

[Saint]

Economic sanctions from the EU aren't off the table. Russia would love to invade. They just have to decide if they think the EU will go for sanctions and they both go down together. I think the EU would respond that way.

Invasion by Russia, leading into mid-terms where the Dems are looking shaky would get a military response from the USA, I think. Biden would storm the mid-terms if he bombs some Russian units in the Ukraine. They'd do this from bases in Germany, and the Germans would get their gas cut off. But they can't leave the EU and NATO, so they'll have to suck it up. Winter is nearly over so the impacts won't be as acute.

I think Putin is smarter than that, I think he's sending a message to other countries within their sphere. (like Georgia, Kazakhstan etc). That they're not afraid of NATO and that NATO are toothless anyway.

 

[11kgm]

Biden is looking so weak, first the Taliban, then the Kazak crisis, now Ukraine

 

[The Passenger]

The Russians will want to get in before the famed Rasputitsa hits. If it doesn't go nice and quick for Mr Putin this will get mighty expensive for the Russians. It was one thing to annex Crimea, but the entirety of the country might not be so easy.

Putin also doesn't have a lot of options now without looking weak. He made some demands and after years of diplomatic wristies he - correctly - got given the finger. It must have been quite the affront.

There is no need for the West to do anything more than provide support, arms and hit Russia with economic sanctions - for decades we've wanted the US to stop trying to be the world police, given it's almost always made the situation worse. Now is the time to test the resolve of that attitude. At the moment, it seems like the US isn't going to do a whole lot more than what I've said. The German decision years ago to proceed with Nord Stream has always been a questionable one that throws a nice spanner in the works.

The people of Ukraine may feel a little unsupported if it falls that way but If Ukrainian's want to defend their country they will do so. Most sentiment in Ukraine is anti-Russian so I don't see this is a walkover for Russia and if it were to be a walkover then why should the West have got their noses dirty for a country that rolled over anyway. The key to any defence is not so much being able to beat the opposition but making it economically unviable for them to continue - the March thaw will play a huge role in this.

 

[spinynorman]

Biden is looking so weak, first the Taliban, then the Kazak crisis, now Ukraine

None of those countries are the US. They’re not Biden’s responsibility and he should allow the people of other countries their autonomy.

 

[11kgm]

None of those countries are the US. They’re not Biden’s responsibility and he should allow the people of other countries their autonomy.

he can show any semblance of leadership, his been weak as * since coming in

The US are the only country in the western world who can stand up to Russia and China

 

[ChampRevesby]

Most sentiment in Ukraine is anti-Russian so I don't see this is a walkover for Russia and if it were to be a walkover then why should the West have got their noses dirty for a country that rolled over anyway.

The vast majority of the population in Eastern Ukraine identify as Russian, there is a separatist movement there that want Russian support (vestiges from the USSR and even further back). Putin failed to support them effectively in 2014. This time they want to finish the job. He also wants to push 'US influence/NATO' out of the Crimea where he has massive support.

 

[spinynorman]

The vast majority of the population in Eastern Ukraine identify as Russian, there is a separatist movement there that want Russian support (vestiges from the USSR and even further back). Putin failed to support them effectively in 2014. This time they want to finish the job. He also wants to push 'US influence/NATO' out of the Crimea where he has massive support.

Yep, Ukraine is deeply divided on the issue. While Russia of course ought to let them make their own decision without interference, this of course also goes for the NATO powers, and it’s sheer fantasy to think only Russia has been guilty of this.

 

[ChampRevesby]

Yep, Ukraine is deeply divided on the issue. While Russia of course ought to let them make their own decision without interference, this of course also goes for the NATO powers, and it’s sheer fantasy to think only Russia has been guilty of this.

Not so much in the Crimea, the 2014 Sebastopol referendum was pretty unanimous that they wanted reunification with Russia. Lots of huff and puff, but the people on ground want to be Russian subjects again. Those NATO countries in the EU that are currently being shipped natural gas from Russia are not going to touch this one.

 

[tangolikelama]

Whilst many are saying NATO / US won't go to war for Ukraine - all it takes is one wrong move/mistake and this is thrust into a world war. Spanish war ship has now headed to the black sea.

 

[Saint]

If you don't think Boris Johnson is itching for a fight, you haven't read any of his history books or seen what's happening in the UK at the moment.

I'm surprised he's not on a battleship in the Mediterranean headed East already.

 

[Rotayjay]

Anyone liking the chances of nuclear war? It's such a terrifying prospect that it makes me irrationally frightened.

 

[1990crow]

If you don't think Boris Johnson is itching for a fight, you haven't read any of his history books or seen what's happening in the UK at the moment.

I'm surprised he's not on a battleship in the Mediterranean headed East already.

Lol could you imagine Boris having to give a speech during wartime. Be ******* hilarious if it wasn't so serious.

 

[1990crow]

Anyone liking the chances of nuclear war? It's such a terrifying prospect that it makes me irrationally frightened.

Nah. Mutually assured destruction means it would take a terrorist like organisation to use them.
If a world war broke out I could see them being used IF one side wasn't willing to surrender, ala WW2.
Otherwise the only country of concern right now would be Iran/Israel. They legit hate each other.

 

[Malifice]

Anyone liking the chances of nuclear war? It's such a terrifying prospect that it makes me irrationally frightened.

I was on record as saying I thought we'd likely have one by 2020.

Come close a few times (Taiwan, India, China, Pakistan, North Korea) but not quite there yet.

It's only a matter of time before there is a miscalculation, and in todays realm of cyberwarfare and hypersonic nukes (reducing reaction and decision time to mere minutes)... well, lets just say there is a very good reason the Doomsday clock is at 100 seconds to midnight at present.

Closest it has ever been to Armageddon.

 

[1990crow]

I was on record as saying I thought we'd likely have one by 2020.

Come close a few times (Taiwan, India, China, Pakistan, North Korea) but not quite there yet.

It's only a matter of time before there is a miscalculation, and in todays realm of cyberwarfare and hypersonic nukes (reducing reaction and decision time to mere minutes)... well, lets just say there is a very good reason the Doomsday clock is at 100 seconds to midnight at present.

Closest it has ever been to Armageddon.

I personally think this is very unrealistic. Negative hypothesizing.

 

[ChampRevesby]

 

[CD Xbow]

Yep, Ukraine is deeply divided on the issue. While Russia of course ought to let them make their own decision without interference, this of course also goes for the NATO powers, and it’s sheer fantasy to think only Russia has been guilty of this.

False equivalence Spiny.
The ex Soviet block countries in Eastern Europe have been eager to join the west, they have not been coerced or threatened.
Very different situation in Ukraine, which has been threatened, invaded by the Russians.

 

[The Passenger]

If you don't think Boris Johnson is itching for a fight, you haven't read any of his history books or seen what's happening in the UK at the moment.

I'm surprised he's not on a battleship in the Mediterranean headed East already.

Boris is itching for a fight because his calamitous prime ministerial reign is all but over without one.

Truss over here is beating the jungle drums. Not surprisingly.

No other NATO nation is interested in war. But no other NATO nation has as big an imbecile in charge as Boris. And more importantly, no other leader of a NATO nation is as dead in the water as Boris.