Europe War in Ukraine

[Nuggs Bunny]

Poland and Ukraine isn't enough to stop the Russian army annexing the Ukraine. It will just see their troops head further west in retaliation

I strongly believe in a free and independent ukraine, but the die on this was cast long ago

An EU move against Russia would likely be a spearhead through Poland towards to create a front linking the Dnieper with Lithuania and blocking a Russian invasion of western Ukraine through Belarus. Preventing the capture of the part of Ukraine east of the Dnieper will probably be impossible even with US assistance, but its feasible they could prevent the fall of the whole country.

It's unlikely Europe would ever have to choose to go to war without the assistance of the US, but the combination of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK is fairly formidable in itself. And the bread and butter of NATO members is preparation and training for that rapid mobilisation to the east.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

An EU move against Russia would likely be a spearhead through Poland towards to create a front linking the Dnieper with Lithuania and blocking a Russian invasion of western Ukraine through Belarus. Preventing the capture of the part of Ukraine east of the Dnieper will probably be impossible even with US assistance, but its feasible they could prevent the fall of the whole country.

It's unlikely Europe would ever have to choose to go to war without the assistance of the US, but the combination of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK is fairly formidable in itself. And the bread and butter of NATO members is preparation and training for that rapid mobilisation to the east.

The last para is the key. All of the EU would have to unite, and act as one, risking all.

This is the same mob who made a mess of the Yugoslavian implosion (unresolved), and who let the Russians poison their own people in their own country

The EU does many things exceptionally well, but risk and having a backbone are not

 

[ChampRevesby]

ABC segment explains it.

 

[Ben The Donkey]

Boris is not stupid enough to risk war with Russia. He's his own worst enemy, but he's a very smart man.

Rhetoric, symbolism and some kind of token effort sure. But British troops on the ground, or warships directly involved?

Not a chance in hell (unless the Yanks are in as well).

So. Appeasement, then?

 

[spinynorman]

So. Appeasement, then?

We can compare the current situation and attempts for a peaceful approach to 1938, but then could also easily compare it to 1914, or the Gulf of Tonkin in 1964. There's more than one lesson to be learned from history, and not every moment is going to be a perfect comparison of a previous event (and certainly won't be a perfect comparison to World War Two).

 

[Sphynx]

Although I think a war in the Ukraine would be beneficial to opinion polls, economy and moving on from covid-19 for the US I think they need to motivate the US people much more than usual.

Not a good time to be a marine deployed to guard the US embassy. It would be a horrible shame for something to happen to that building attributed to Russian action that puts 20 young and attractive faces on the news for two weeks as casualties of a monster needing to be bled in retribution.

Some 8,500 combat-ready US troops are on high alert to deploy at short notice amid rising tension over Ukraine, the Pentagon says.

Ukraine: US troops on alert as West voices unity

Western allies agree to sanctions against Russia if it invades, as thousands of troops stand by.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[spinynorman]

I remember a few months ago a story about how US State Department officials were frustrated that Taiwanese officials did not share their concerns that an invasion from China was imminent. Again, it’s beginning to look like those who will actually be affected don’t feel the same way as the ultra-paranoid warmongers in Washington, given this from the Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council:



Likewise, a Ukrainian think tank, chaired by a former (pro-EU) Defence Minister, has judged any massive Russian invasion of the country in 2022 as unlikely.

Nonetheless, the western media and politicians roll on.

 

[Sphynx]

I remember a few months ago a story about how US State Department officials were frustrated that Taiwanese officials did not share their concerns that an invasion from China was imminent. Again, it’s beginning to look like those who will actually be affected don’t feel the same way as the ultra-paranoid warmongers in Washington, given this from the Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council:



Likewise, a Ukrainian think tank, chaired by a former (pro-EU) Defence Minister, has judged any massive Russian invasion of the country in 2022 as unlikely.

Nonetheless, the western media and politicians roll on.

I don't think the UK, US, Aus governments would be preparing emergency evacuations for diplomats purely for political musical chairs.

They don't want another Kabul, especially if they have to fight back.

It's not unreasonable to assume the Five-Eyes intel alliance probably knows a lot more than even Ukraine and certainly a lot more than a Ukranian think tank.

 

[Zidane98]

Putin has no interest in defending Donbass / Lugansk regions. He simply wants the frozen conflict to continue perpetually as it undermines Ukraine financially and/or efforts to integrate into Europe. He is happy to let his pro russian proxies run the region as a virtual dictatorship while providing covert military support to ensure the area doesn't come back under Ukranian control. If Putin actually cared for the people of the region he would either a) begin negotiations to formally annex the region and integrate it into the Russian federation. Officially take responsibility for the area.

Or b) Withdraw completely from the region, stand down his military proxies and commence negotiations to officially continue a relationship with the region while pledging to not interfere and respect the Ukraine border.

With such a large border effectively under control by the Russians and no real help for Ukranians this situation will continue for some time. Putin wants a pupett regime installed again in Ukraine so Russia can plunder Ukraine at its pleasure once again and unfortunately for the inhabitants of Donbass a protracted frozen war is the price to pay for Putin getting closer to achieving that goal.

 

[Sphynx]

Russia has lifted Tu-95 strategic missile bombers into the air

Russia has taken action to suddenly deploy strategic Tu-95 missile bombers at Engels Air Base, BulgarianMilitary.com has learned, citing Russian media.

bulgarianmilitary.com

 

[ChampRevesby]

Putin has no interest in defending Donbass / Lugansk regions. He simply wants the frozen conflict to continue perpetually as it undermines Ukraine financially and/or efforts to integrate into Europe. He is happy to let his pro russian proxies run the region as a virtual dictatorship while providing covert military support to ensure the area doesn't come back under Ukranian control. If Putin actually cared for the people of the region he would either a) begin negotiations to formally annex the region and integrate it into the Russian federation. Officially take responsibility for the area.

Or b) Withdraw completely from the region, stand down his military proxies and commence negotiations to officially continue a relationship with the region while pledging to not interfere and respect the Ukraine border.

With such a large border effectively under control by the Russians and no real help for Ukranians this situation will continue for some time. Putin wants a pupett regime installed again in Ukraine so Russia can plunder Ukraine at its pleasure once again and unfortunately for the inhabitants of Donbass a protracted frozen war is the price to pay for Putin getting closer to achieving that goal.

The Crimea is effectively Russian ethnically and politically, this goes back before the Ottoman empire. If NATO want to get bogged down in the Crimea then they will have to deal with the locals as well.

 

[Zidane98]

The Crimea is effectively Russian ethnically and politically, this goes back before the Ottoman empire. If NATO want to get bogged down in the Crimea then they will have to deal with the locals as well.

You mean the Crimean Tartars? They are the indigenous inhabitants of the area.

 

[ChampRevesby]

You mean the Crimean Tartars? They are the indigenous inhabitants of the area.

Yeah the Cossacks, pro Russia before the Bolsheviks took hold.

 

[Malifice]

So. Appeasement, then?

It's that or WW3.

I'm not sure Ukraine is the Hill that we all want to die on.

 

[awaremind]

Yebiga linking to a pro-Russia website? Never!

There will no doubt be an annexation of Ukraine by Russia. The Yanks and EU wont intervene, but there will be serious consequences for the Russians economically.

What? They will stand by and look sad?
They haven’t started psychologically preparing you plebs for war through the media for nothing. The USA has a closing window to start a major war against Russia and China before the balance tips too far against them in the general military super power stakes and Russia and China have hypersonic missile superiority temporarily, so scarily USA might want to start the war but Russia and chinas strength, aside from thier people being less practically useless , is in nuclear tipped hypersonic missiles so let that sink in.

 

[awaremind]

Does china help Russia?

Absolutely, it could even take the chance to attack us and Japan Taiwan etc. It might be the best chance they would get in a decade or more.

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Watching the news and they use file footage of a tank machine firing 2 ropes out of.

Does anybody know what this machine is?

 

[awaremind]

Watching the news and they use file footage of a tank machine firing 2 ropes out of.

Does anybody know what this machine is?

Could be a mine clearing machine and the ropes are like strings of explosives , I know Russians have such a machine.

 

[CD Xbow]

At least during the Cold War the fantastical threat of a united communist bloc was based on something ideological and real. The idea of China and Russia, two countries with nothing in common, just has no basis aside for a vague “they’re the bad guys” thing. They only work together if they’re pushed together.

The sad thing for Russia if they continue in the 'partnership' is that they will become very much the junior partner and the PRC will end up eating their lunch. PRC is really a much bigger challenge to the Russians in the long term than the west.

 

[CD Xbow]

What? They will stand by and look sad?
They haven’t started psychologically preparing you plebs for war through the media for nothing. The USA has a closing window to start a major war against Russia and China before the balance tips too far against them in the general military super power stakes and Russia and China have hypersonic missile superiority temporarily, so scarily USA might want to start the war but Russia and chinas strength, aside from thier people being less practically useless , is in nuclear tipped hypersonic missiles so let that sink in.

US/Nato wont go to war over the Ukraine. They will give support. As Malifice said, the Ukraine is not the hill to die for.

I'm not sure Russia is in a position to mount a full scale invasion. While 120,000 troops encircling the Ukraine is intimidating, I am told by military folks they probably need about a quarter of a million troops to invade and occupy. I am not sure they could sustain an occupation for any length of time as Russian logistics and reserves are relatively poor and their economy is going to have trouble supporting it, people forget the Russian economy is about the size of ours.

I don't think body bags returning from the Ukraine to Moscow is what Putin wants, as he will remember the dead from Afghanistan was one of the factors in the collapse of his beloved Soviet Union.

I suspect Putin's plan is multifaceted, with the 'invasion' one aspect to put pressure on the Ukraine. There have been reports of potential coup and criminals planning sabotage, which makes me think the ultimate plan is regime change in the Ukraine, but not from direct invasion. I am not saying there won't be any violence, I expect it will be small scale, adding to the pressure.

Mr Putin would also be looking at a way to break the stalemate of in Donbass / Lugansk, a new sympathetic government in Kiev could give him that (along with his buffer zone).

One of the big ironies is that Russian behaviour has driven most of the ex eastern block countries into the arms of Western Europe. Putins actions in the last 10 years have magnified that. So now he is doing it again, more of the same. Talk about self defeating behavior.

 

[awaremind]

US/Nato wont go to war over the Ukraine. They will give support. As Malifice said, the Ukraine is not the hill to die for.

I'm not sure Russia is in a position to mount a full scale invasion. While 120,000 troops encircling the Ukraine is intimidating, I am told by military folks they probably need about a quarter of a million troops to invade and occupy. I am not sure they could sustain an occupation for any length of time as Russian logistics and reserves are relatively poor and their economy is going to have trouble supporting it, people forget the Russian economy is about the size of ours.

I don't think body bags returning from the Ukraine to Moscow is what Putin wants, as he will remember the dead from Afghanistan was one of the factors in the collapse of his beloved Soviet Union.

I suspect Putin's plan is multifaceted, with the 'invasion' one aspect to put pressure on the Ukraine. There have been reports of potential coup and criminals planning sabotage, which makes me think the ultimate plan is regime change in the Ukraine, but not from direct invasion. I am not saying there won't be any violence, I expect it will be small scale, adding to the pressure.

Mr Putin would also be looking at a way to break the stalemate of in Donbass / Lugansk, a new sympathetic government in Kiev could give him that (along with his buffer zone).

One of the big ironies is that Russian behaviour has driven most of the ex eastern block countries into the arms of Western Europe. Putins actions in the last 10 years have magnified that. So now he is doing it again, more of the same. Talk about self defeating behavior.

Except now Biden’s admins actions has already led Croatia and Bulgaria absolutely rule out sending troops to Ukraine and Germany is rejecting talks with US leaders on the topic.

 

[Zidane98]

Except now Biden’s admins actions has already led Croatia and Bulgaria absolutely rule out sending troops to Ukraine and Germany is rejecting talks with US leaders on the topic.

Croatia & Bulgaria are friends of Russia. Germany likes its cheap gas from Russia. There's no surprises here.

Biden is still relatively weak on Ukraine remembering that the US has an obligation to defend the country under the Budapest agreement.

 

[Zidane98]

US/Nato wont go to war over the Ukraine. They will give support. As Malifice said, the Ukraine is not the hill to die for.

I'm not sure Russia is in a position to mount a full scale invasion. While 120,000 troops encircling the Ukraine is intimidating, I am told by military folks they probably need about a quarter of a million troops to invade and occupy. I am not sure they could sustain an occupation for any length of time as Russian logistics and reserves are relatively poor and their economy is going to have trouble supporting it, people forget the Russian economy is about the size of ours.

I don't think body bags returning from the Ukraine to Moscow is what Putin wants, as he will remember the dead from Afghanistan was one of the factors in the collapse of his beloved Soviet Union.

I suspect Putin's plan is multifaceted, with the 'invasion' one aspect to put pressure on the Ukraine. There have been reports of potential coup and criminals planning sabotage, which makes me think the ultimate plan is regime change in the Ukraine, but not from direct invasion. I am not saying there won't be any violence, I expect it will be small scale, adding to the pressure.

Mr Putin would also be looking at a way to break the stalemate of in Donbass / Lugansk, a new sympathetic government in Kiev could give him that (along with his buffer zone).

One of the big ironies is that Russian behaviour has driven most of the ex eastern block countries into the arms of Western Europe. Putins actions in the last 10 years have magnified that. So now he is doing it again, more of the same. Talk about self defeating behavior.

Yep, look at what is going on in Kazakhstan right now:

Kazakhstan protests: Boon or bane for Putin? – DW – 01/07/2022

Russia is sending troops to Kazakhstan to support the government, which has been facing days of angry protests. For Moscow, there is more at stake than cementing its influence in a neighboring country shaken by unrest.

www.dw.com

This will be enough to keep Vlad busy for quite some time. And he can't run with US conspiracy theories on this one.

 

[awaremind]

Yep, look at what is going on in Kazakhstan right now:

Kazakhstan protests: Boon or bane for Putin? – DW – 01/07/2022

Russia is sending troops to Kazakhstan to support the government, which has been facing days of angry protests. For Moscow, there is more at stake than cementing its influence in a neighboring country shaken by unrest.

www.dw.com

This will be enough to keep Vlad busy for quite some time. And he can't run with US conspiracy theories on this one.

Yes he can even if not true, that’s why you don’t mess around, cos now the whole world sees the USA more as the mafia than world police.

 

[QuietB]

Absolutely, it could even take the chance to attack us and Japan Taiwan etc. It might be the best chance they would get in a decade or more.

That proposition is laughable