Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcomed)

[Warwick]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

2nd - Geelong Cats

If ever a side had a perfect season it was Geelong in 2007. What can you really say about this team? They lost 4 games during the year (3 in the first 5 rounds), they were the highest scoring team in the competition by over 200 points, they were the best defensive team, they had an average winning margin of 55 (including 6 wins of greater than 10 goals and a game where they kicked 222 points), an average losing margin of just 11 (including 2 losses under a goal), and a winning streak of 15. They also had the Brownlow medalist, the AFLPA MVP (who wasn't even the Brownlow winner), the Norm Smith medalist, the Rising Star recipient, 9 All Australians, and they were the VFL premiers. Oh, and they won their first final by over 100 points, and the grand final by 119. So which idiot has them finishing 2nd after the H&A season?

Geelong are so much better than the next best side at the moment it's not funny, and they are in their absolute prime. They finished an incredible 3 games and 40% ahead of the second placed Power. They have just one player over 30 (Milburn) and 20 on their list aged between 23 and 28. It's not unreasonable to suggest they will actually improve next year which is a scary thought for all. When you consider there are no possible retirements on the horizon and they seem a pretty tight group with plenty of local juniors (Egan, Scarlett, Bartel, Ling, Abletts, and Blake) who are willing to keep the side together, there is no reason why they can't contend for a few good years to come. They also have to somehow fit Matthew Egan, Varcoe, Hawkins, Prismall, Tenace, Blake, Djerrkura, and Lonergan into their grand final side. As seen with the great Brisbane sides of 2001-2004, this competition for spots really drives each individual to perform, and the prospect of success motivates like nothing else.

I do think they will win the flag again next year but can a perfect storm happen twice? I have them finishing 2nd on my ladder for a few reasons - one of them being to abide by my title of an "entirely inaccurate" prediction, but mostly as credit to the side I have finishing on top. If it's any consolation to Geelong supporters, there are only two sides on my ladder who I believe will not finish any lower - the Cats and the Bombers. But when you look back at recent history there is no doubt a year is a long time in football. Take the Eagles - they were expected to win the next 2 flags with the side they had in 2006 but things can change. The best H&A side I have ever seen lost just one game in 2000 and won the grand final by 60 points. The following year they finished on top of the table by percentage only against a young and up-and-coming team who they lost to in the 2001 GF. The great Carlton team of 95 also finished 4 games clear at the top and won both the preliminary and grand finals by over 10 goals. They finished 5th in 1996.

I know looking at what happened to other dominant teams in recent times is hardly compelling evidence to have them slipping to second, but it is so hard to find a weakness in this Geelong outfit. They will become the hunted next season -and as Brisbane fans will tell you, opposition teams lift significantly to try and beat the best. There is also the possibility of a premiership hangover. Geelong is not a big place but they are football mad. I can't imagine the celebrations that would have taken place down there (and are probably still going), but the players will know every team starts on an equal pegging again in 08. Considering it's been such a long time since Geelong has tasted victory, and they have faced many bitter GF defeats, you can excuse the locals for going mental. But the players will have to work even harder and motivate themselves to get going again. The last side who broke a long drought (Sydney in 2005) started 2006 very slowly winning only 1 game in the first month.

There may be a slight question mark whether Geelong can cover significant injuries should they occur. Nathan Ablett will be a loss as well if he retires. He kicked 34 goals from 21 games last season and provided them with a second option up forward. Hawkings may need to slot straight into that role if Ablett does not return. They do have the best depth in the comp, but I am not totally convinced with some of their fringe players. I tend to think some players get an inflated reputation for not making these very good sides. Blokes like Prismall and Tenace are getting a lot of wraps and they are decent players, but it tends to remind me of the Shattocks and Morrisons who were rated highly as it seemed they were hard done by for not getting much of a chance in a gun outfit. But considering Egan missed the finals, and Rooke (17 games), David Johnson (13), Harley (8), Chapman (6), and Steve Johnson (5) all missed plenty of games last season, I can't see injuries being a huge issue.

All up, there can be no doubt this is the side to beat in 2008. They play such an attacking and attractive game of football but they also do all the right things without the pill in hand. Geelong were the 2nd leading tackling side in the comp and ranked 2nd in least opponent possessions. They have an incredible defence with 3 AA standard defenders in Scarlett, Harley, and Milburn. Mooney also really stood up last season to become a leading key forward, but their goals come from everywhere. An amazing 8 players kicked over 20 goals for the Cats, with a further 6 kicking 10 or more. Ottens has become one of the most dangerous players in the game, averaging 19 hit outs in the ruck, but also kicking 21 goals. The Geelong midfield and half-forward line is also sensational and filled with top standard players all with different talents. The prolific Bartel, Corey, and Selwood can win the ball at any contest, Chapman provides plenty of hardness and goal-scoring ability, Ling is the competition's best tagger, Enright and Kelly are skillfull and quick wingers, Steve Johnson provides the magic, and Ablett can do all of the above.

Probably 15 players in this side had career best seasons in 2007 and many have now reached the elite status of the AFL (Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Ottens, Johnson, Corey, Scarlett, and Mooney). It is yet to be seen whether these players can have a similar standard year, but at the moment there are just no weaknesses in any area on the ground. They also have a distinct advantage over other Victorian clubs with a genuine home ground, and an advantage over interstate sides with most of their away games played an hour's drive up the highway. They have Hawkins standing in the wings and have drafted smartly by stocking up with tall prospects who will take time and can be introduced immediately when some of their older defenders retire. It's a great time to be a Cat, and you would think as long as the city of Geelong is still standing next year, this side will be thereabouts again on the last Saturday of September.

Draw:
Play twice: Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle, Richmond, West Coast, Kangaroos
Games breakdown: 8 @ Skilled Stadium, 5 @ Telstra Dome, 4 @ MCG, 2 @ AAMI, 2 @ Subiaco, 1 @ Telstra Stadium

3 most important players:
1. Matthew Scarlett
2. Brad Ottens
3. Cameron Mooney

One to watch: Steve Johnson - there are a few players who should see a bit more time next season (Prismall, Hawkings, Varcoe in particular), and I have a man-crush on Paul Chapman, but just how good can the Norm Smith Medalist get? Johnson was so close to being cut from the list after a few indescretions last year, but his turnaround has been nothing short of incredible. Geelong were sitting 10th when SJ returned after his enforced 5 week suspension - and (not entirely coincidently) lost only one game after he was added to the team. He had a sensational year and, although he will have some stars to contend with in his team, may be worth a buck or two to finish a place in the Brownlow.

Best team:
B: Mackie, Scarlett, Harley
HB: Wojcinski, Egan, Milburn
C: Enright, Bartel, Corey
HF: Chapman, Mooney, Selwood
F: Stokes, Nathan Ablett, Johnson
Foll: Ottens, Ling, Ablett Jr
Int (from): Blake, Hunt, Hawkins, Kelly, Rooke, Byrnes, Varcoe, Prismall, Tenace

Strengths: Where to start? It's not hard with a team containing 9 AAs. 3 tall but versatile defenders led by Scarlett who can play on (and beat) any forward. He is also one of the best attacking defenders in the league, even though he is a fullback. The best midfield in the league led by Bartel, Ablett, and Corey. Speed with Wojcinski, Mackie, and Byrnes in particular. And the most creative half-forward line in the competition - Chapman, Mooney, and Steve Johnson. They kicked 146 goals between them last season.

Weaknesses: Almost N/A at the moment. If they had a better second tall option up forward they would almost be unbeatable. If Hawkins plays to his potential in the next few years they could play a few more GFs yet.

Ins: Taylor, Dawson Simpson, Scott Simpson, Donohue, McKenna
Outs: King, Gardiner, Hunt, Spencer, Owen

 

[Kochie 16]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Geelong at second, couldn't agree more!

 

[dobbo_18]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

After having read your expert analysis of Geelong, I'm sh*tting myself at the thought of them next year. IMO Hawkins will be an improvement upon N. Ablett anyways, but as you said he does provide depth to the side.

 

[bluespooner]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

And this can only lead to one thing. I guess the earlier comment about Hawthorn having the ultimate big game matchwinner i.e. referring to the bloke in Warwick's avatar of course must have done the trick.

Its fantastic that people think Hawthorn are this far ahead in their development, as its still a fairly young list. I'll look forward to reading your write-up on Hawthorn.

Incidentally, its a top thread Warwick.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

And this can only lead to one thing. I guess the earlier comment about Hawthorn having the ultimate big game matchwinner i.e. referring to the bloke in Warwick's avatar of course must have done the trick.

Its fantastic that people think Hawthorn are this far ahead in their development, as its still a fairly young list. I'll look forward to reading your write-up on Hawthorn.

Incidentally, its a top thread Warwick.

You seem pretty happy for someone who's club has just received the ultimate kiss of death.

 

[Port_GW]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Good work on this thread

Must say looking at the Crows write up, i disagree with a few things. Hentschell certainly wont ruck. And i'd also put Goodwin in their top 3 important players as well.

3 most important players:
1. Ben Rutten
2. Trent Henschel – was a gun before his injury. Will need to swap between the forward line and in the ruck.
3. Andrew McLeod – sets so much up from the backline. Needs to stay fit.

 

[Pie eyed]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Absolutely fantastic topic and post Warwick.
99 out of 100 just for sticking with it.
Great, but long, read.

 

[lionbear]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Geelong second, I think it is a fair call, having been down to Geelong for one day last month if ever there was going to be a hangover this is the one. I heard the cup and it's doings of the last 24 hours every hour on the radio when I listened.

From 2nd they could be the pick for the flag because once September starts if they don't have any major injuries they might run out September strongly.

Interesting call for first Warwick, If they put it together they are more then capable and if they do it look out for them for 3 or 4 years because they are so young. Can't wait for the final write up.

 

[bluespooner]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

You seem pretty happy for someone who's club has just received the ultimate kiss of death.

Your starting to worry me now BrownDog, as that 'Jones the butcher' avatar Warwick was using for quite a while isn't exactly a million miles away from likeness of the original kiss of death, Lou Richards.

 

[Quigley]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

I actually would not be surprised to see Geelong fall out of the top 4. They got everything together this year without a doubt but the same group of players have put together some pretty ordinary seasons in recent times and I can easily see them falling back to the pack. Premiership hangover I think will also be a significant factor given that it is Geelong and it would be easy to read all the press and figure that all they have to do next year is turn up to win it. Geelong will not have the sheer number of guys having career years at once again and to make 9 of them AA was ridiculous and a few of them will get shown up this year I think.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Oooh, I wonder who's going to be number one. Can't wait for the revelation!!!!

 

[BigCat2]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Oooh, I wonder who's going to be number one. Can't wait for the revelation!!!!

What's the name of the Gold Coast team again?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Interested to read the final analysis.
Top stuff Warwick.

 

[Lace Out]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Staggering this beautifully Warwick

 

[Warwick]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

1st - Hawthorn Hawks

Here they come! The Hawks enter season 2008 as not only a young side on the rise, but as a legitimate premiership threat. I found this team extremely difficult to place as I actually think Hawthorn could bomb out and miss the finals completely or alternatively, finish the H&A season on top. I went for a risk and picked the latter (like I did with the Saints last season) but not with complete confidence. Recently we have seen plenty of teams have an off-year after making big inroads the season before and after everyone predicted them to kick-on (Melbourne in 01, Fremantle in 04 and 07, Collingwood in 04, Geelong in 2006, and Western Bulldogs in 07). But I think this Hawthorn team could do something special.

It must be remembered that Hawthorn only won 13 games last year and finished outside the top 4. Were it not for some Buddy-magic at the death they would have been knocked out in the first week of September. However you only have to look at the last decade to see that teams that finished as minor premiers or went deep into September were not necessarily at the top of the ladder the year before. Geelong won just 10 games in 2006, the 2005 premiers and minor premiers in Sydney and Adelaide won 13 and 8 games respectively in 04, North Melbourne won the flag in 1998 after winning 12 games in 97, and St Kilda won the minor premership and made the grand final in 1997 after missing the finals the year before. Even a couple of the great sides in Brisbane (12 wins in 00) and Essendon (12 in 1998) won less than the Hawks in 07 before going on their great runs.

The main concern I have with Hawthorn is their lack of experience. I think this was highlighted in the final against the Kangaroos (who lost their other two finals by over 100 points) after the jubilation of the week before. They have also lost their captain Richard Vandenberg, Joel Smith, and Ben Dixon from an already young team, and although they didn't have stellar seasons, their on- (and more importantly) off-field roles were very important. The retirements have ultimately left Hawthorn with a very young list which is not the most ideal thing when navigating through September. I think Clarkson may have looked at Dew, not only for his skill and booming kick but also to provide a bit of an experience boost at the business end of the year.

It must be said however, that even with a young list there have been plenty of signs to indicate this side has the maturity to win the flag. Hawthorn finished 2006 with 4 straight wins and high expectations on them to perform in 07. They handled this pressure well, and surprised a few in the process. They also won a final against a very experienced and battle-hardened team in Adelaide, and they have some exceptional young leaders in Mitchell and Hodge. The Hawks only suffered two real blow-out defeats against Sydney and the Crows (typically an indication of the up-and-down style of young teams), with the majority of their losses under 4 goals. They also beat Brisbane when they were in red-hot form in round 19 and managed to beat every side who finished ahead of them on the ladder (although admittantly they did beat Geelong and the Kangaroos when they were struggling at the start of the year, and Port in the middle of a 4 game losing streak).

The Hawthorn squad looks very balanced at the moment with some super young talent waiting for a chance. When you consider Thorp, Munston, Renouf, and Dowler have only played a handfull of games between them, there is a reason why they are a happy team at Hawthorn. While their forward line looks their obvious strength with Franklin, Roughead, Boyle, and a returning Williams up there, I just love their midfield. Mitchell, Hodge, and Lewis are classy inside mids - with Mitchell up there as one of the best extractors in the business, a gun tagger in Sewell, the veteran Crawford who provides much needed experience but still runs as hard as anyone, pace in Bateman, and depth with Ladson, McGlynn, Whitecross, and Young. The key is stopping the opposition from finding the pill as they were ranked 3rd in most opponent possessions per game. Sewell is a super tagger but it is something they can improve on. Their maligned defence is underrated as well, and surprisingly they conceeded the 4th least number of points in 07. They have some quality defenders in Croad, Gilham, and Campbell Brown - one of the most versatile and hardest defenders in the league, with plenty of run and creation coming from Guerra and Birchall.

The Hawks have two of the best youngsters in the game and potential AFL superstars in Franklin and Hodge. Franklin nearly won the Coleman at 20 and played some incredible games. He will need to keep improving however as opposition coaches will make him their prime suspect. And as seen in the final against the Kangaroos - stop Franklin, and you go a long way to stopping the Hawks. Luke Hodge has also stamped himself as a long-term leader of the club. It's almost a shame Hawthorn have so many good forwards as Hodge played some of his best footy up there last season. If Hodge and Franklin continue to improve, expect to see the Hawks continue to rise.

I also like how Hawthorn have drafted to improve their 3 (and only) main weaknesses on their list (key defender, fast midfielder, and crumbing forward). Cyril Rioli ticks two of those boxes and should be ready to go. I would also like to see Roughead get a chance down back considering another "tall" forward in Williams will be returning. In fact, it's the clever drafting strategies that have turned this team around. Before Hawthorn, clubs were hesitant to trade good players for picks, but the Hawks have shown the value in high selections. They have made some tough decisions and traded AA-standard players such as Thompson, Hay, Rawlings, and Everitt to chance their luck on draft day. They have also had a few poor years near the bottom and dealt with the Kangaroos which has improved their situation. In fact Hawthorn have had a total of 22 picks in the first or second round since 2001 (including 9 1st rounders since 2004). They have also made some smart selections by stockpiling talls early. The way Hawthorn has regenerated their list is a credit to some gutsy decision making at the trade and draft table.

I just get the feeling this team is ready to shine. Although they don't have a great record at Aurora, they do have a genuine home ground advantage in Tasmania and play some teams that have recently provided them with some trouble down there - Adelaide (lost by 71 points in 07), Port (lost 8 from the last 9), Western Bulldogs (lost 3 from 4), and Brisbane Lions (lost 4 from last 5). If their key defenders stand up, and Hodge, Franklin, Mitchell, and Campbell stay fit, they will give things a real shake.

Draw:
Play twice: Melbourne, Kangaroos, Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood
Games breakdown: 10 @ MCG, 4 @ TD, 4 @ Aurora, 2 @ Subiaco, 1 @ Gabba, 1 @ AAMI.

3 most important players:
1. Lance Franklin
2. Trent Croad
3. Luke Hodge

One to watch: Mitch Thorp - was very much on Brisbane's radar in the 2006 draft so it will be interesting to see where he will play. He got a small taste of AFL footy in 2007 but may have a bigger role next year. It would be great to see him play a couple of the games in Tasmania. Stuart Dew is another one to keep an eye on. He may have a key role to play towards the end of the year as the Hawks charge towards the finals. We will have to weight and see (pathetic I know).

Best team:
B: Brown, Gilham, Guerra
HB: Birchall, Croad, Ellis
C: Crawford, Mitchell, Sewell
HF: Bateman, Franklin, Young
F: Boyle, Roughead, Williams
Foll: Campbell, Hodge, Lewis
Int: Bailey, Dew, Rioli, Taylor, McGlynn, Ladson, Thorp

Strengths: Tall forwards - Franklin is a gun, Roughead who is extremely strong and always improving, Boyle who kicked 32 goals from 20 matches, and Williams who plays tall. Inner mids are among the best in the league - Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, and Lewis. They also have a lot of variety with players capable of playing a number of positions at either end of the ground. Ruck depth is good - Campbell, Taylor, Bailey, and Renouf.

Weaknesses: They lack another key defender, outside/fast midfielder, and a forward crumber. If Cyril Rioli realises his potential they can scrap two of those needs.

Ins: Rioli, Whitecross, Dew
Outs: Vandenberg, Smith, Dixon

 

[Hollow Knight]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

And a truly epic thread reaches its conclusion.

Time for a cold beer and a lie down Warwick.

My 2008 prediction: Warwick won't be doing this again.

 

[Warwick]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

After a month and a half, 41 pages in a Word document of various stats, graphs, and drafts, and much stress later I have finally finished this bloody thing. It certainly became a lot more verbose as I moved up the ladder. All of the write-ups were supposed to be as long as the Essendon one.

I would like to thank you all for the kind comments and I will say once again I am happy to hear any of your thoughts or grievances about anything you read (as long as it doesn't concern Henschel playing in the ruck - I took that on board ).

I would not be surprised if the ladder was reversed knowing my previous form at these sort of things. I guess the 3 teams I am most worried about getting very wrong are the two bookends and the Western Bulldogs. The wooden spoon team really depends on injuries during the year, but as harsh as it was on Essendon, someone had to finish 16th on this. Hawthorn could do anything this year, I just hope they make the 8 after predicting a Fremantle vs St Kilda GF last year. Looking at the Bulldog's draw and their new additions, I think they could finish a little higher. But oh well. I will be very happy if I pick 6 of the top 8.

I hope you enjoyed the read. I doubt there will be another next year.

 

[John]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

A brilliant read all the way Warwick. One of the best I have ever read on Big Footy.

 

[Sherminator.]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Great thread, epic! Outstanding effort Warwick, the Lion's board has some of the best writers in the entire BigFooty board.

I enjoyed reading your predictions. I laughed at some of your jokes (you pathetic Dew one made me laugh a lot). I liked how you spelt Muston (Munston, reminds me of mustard), too.

Awesome work, again.

 

[Copernicus]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Great thread mate. Good to know there are folks on here who can think and write at the same time

Will be very interesting to see how Hawthorn do - I agree that they could either bomb or rise spectacularly. I am hoping for the former but would not be at all surprised to see the latter!

 

[LIONOFZION]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Thanks Warwick - excellent job - I was just wondering what your predictions would be if Hawthorn came up against either Geelong, or Brisbane at the Gabba, in a final, in a case scenario where injuries and form leading up to these matches were not an issue?

 

[Cousin Jed]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

I hope you enjoyed the read. I doubt there will be another next year.

Quality read in here.

Maybe next time you could just call it "Warwick's unnecessary and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcome).

Leave out the verbose!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Great read Warwick. Good to see you fitted in my boy Mitch as the one to watch as well.
Our improvement in 2007 came from players like Ladson, Sewell, Young, Lewis and Gilham. We'll be hoping that they continue that trend and a few others like Thorp, Ellis, Bailey, Muston and Rioli step up also.

 

[PROUD LION]

Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

7th - Brisbane Lions

I have the Lions just sneaking back into the 8 next season. The reason I don't have them any higher is because I think of all the teams I have in the top 7, Brisbane have the most question marks surrounding them. They certainly have the talent to finish higher on the ladder, but a lot depends on whether they can address those weaknesses. Either way, it's been an extraordinary effort by the Lions to avoid bottoming out like many thought they would this year after a long period of sustained success. It's a credit to the coaching and recruiting staff that we are in contention to make the finals again so soon after 4 straight grand finals.

It must be remembered that only 3 teams in the entire competition won less games than Brisbane did last season. All 3 - Melbourne, Carlton, and Richmond are expected to finish close to the bottom again. The Lions also played some of the most horrendous football they have ever played during the middle of the year, and at that stage the wooden spoon wasn't out of the question. I would say along with Richmond, they were the worse side in the competition at that stage. The draw with the pathetic Tigers and the 10 goal loss against the Bombers were certainly the low-lights. Also Brisbane did not win a game during the last month of football. The competition was stiff (Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn) but it's hardly going to get easier if we want to make the finals next year. It is largely due to these reasons that I am astounded so many have us in the top 4 next season.

The improvement will depend on whether we can fix some of our problems. We need to find a second avenue to goal. You would think that would be easy with the likes of Bradshaw, Clark, Brennan, Charman, and Leuenberger in the side to help Brown, but we had most of those players last year and still struggled to find a second goal kicker. In fact, besides Melbourne and Neitz, Brisbane's 2nd highest goal scorer (Brennan with 28) was the lowest total in the league. Geelong had 6 players that scored more goals than Brennan. If we are going to win more games we really need 2 or 3 players (besides Brown) chipping in every game. If Brown and Bradshaw play 22 games together the Lions should be well on their way to September.

Another problem Brisbane have is their lack of midfield depth. You stop Black - and you are on your way to winning the game. On paper the Brisbane midfield looks fantastic: Charman, Black, Power, Adcock, Lappin, and Johnstone as the starting 5 or 6 would worry most teams. The real improvement will depend on whether Rischitelli, Stiller, Sherman and co can lift another notch. The Lions are a low possession team that struggle finding the ball and clearing the packs. I feel they really need to find a Mitchell or Harris-type extractor to actually win the bloody thing and free-up other teammates. Adcock was a revelation in this role last year, and Rischitelli certainly has promise, but consistency is the key. Along with winning the hard ball, our ball movement must improve to beat the better sides. Sherman's thud to earth in 07 was a big reason this dropped away, although I predict he will be back. Begley, Corrie, Notting, and JMac helping him out in this regard will also be a bonus. We looked at our best when we linked and supported each other by providing shepherds and 2nd options, and this is surely a better mode of attack than trying to clear the traffic by ducking back into the congestion, which seemed to be our gameplan during the middle of the year.

Injury management has also become a concern at Brisbane. During our premiership years we had a fairly set team each week, and if we did have an injury we would have a ready-made replacement waiting. I have no doubt our current best 22 is a top 4-6 team. The problem (as you would imagine with very few top draft picks) is depth. For a second year in a row Brisbane lost the most weeks through injury. This becomes a major concern as we don't have the players at the moment to replace our stars. We rely on our best players performing and staying fit probably more than any other team - we simply cannot afford to lose Brown, Bradshaw, Black, Charman, or Merrett as we don't have the replacements. If we lose any one of these vital players we really feel it. If all 5 play 22 matches, we will play finals.

It is so hard to place Brisbane because they are really stuck between two eras. Only 7 players on the Lion's list are aged in the "premiership years" 24-28. You compare that to a team like Sydney who have 14, or Geelong with 13 in that age division. The plus for Brisbane is the fact that 10 or 11 players should play their 50th games next year. This is largely thought of as the period where you start to see improvement.

Although this sounds all doom and gloom, I have no doubt we are seeing a team on the rise. It's a very exciting time to be a Brisbane supporter, and the team made a lot of progress last year. The Lions are one of the youngest sides in the competition but they still have the quality to trouble all opponents. Firstly, any side with Jonathan Brown in their team is a chance to win a football game. He is the game's best atm and he is a Lion. So is Travis Johnstone. Trapper may or may not make a big difference to this side, but he will have a lot more impact than Cameron Wood or pick 14 playing at Suncoast. Matthew Leuenberger will be the best player we draft this decade. I think he will have his ups and downs this year due to it being his second year and the fact he is a 19 year old ruck, but who can't get excited by the giant? Brisbane also have the "super draft" crop to add to their lineup, plus another potato-muncher from Ireland, plus the blokes who missed a lot of games through injury and poor form last year: Bradshaw (missed 22 games), Corrie (missed 20), Mitch Clark (18), Hooper (14), JMac (13), Drummond (11), Harding (11) Selwood (8), and Sherman (8). Our draw for the first 7 weeks is extremely hard, but if we break even and win 2 or 3 we are still a huge chance as it does ease up. If we win 4 or 5 of those - look out!!

Draw:
Play twice: West Coast, Sydney, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos, Carlton
Games breakdown: 11 @ Gabba, 3 @ TD, 2 @ MCG, 1 @ SCG, 1 @ Aurora, 1 @ Skilled Stadium, 1 @ Gold Coast, 1 @ AAMI, 1 @ Subiaco

5 most important players:
1. Jonathan Brown - the games best player and our main spearhead. Had a sensational year last season: Coleman Medal, AA CHF, AA vice-captain, Merrett-Murray medal, 2nd MVP, Best Captain, and Most Courageous. And all with 3 opponents every game. In fact, pretty much the only 2 to win the trophies last year were Brown and Geelong. If he goes down we could be in a lot of trouble.

2. Daniel Merrett - if big Strawb wasn't the AFL's most improved player last year, he would have come a close 2nd. Had a fantastic year shutting down the opposition's best forward and was ranked no. 4 on the list of least goals conceeded. Helped Brisbane become the 5th stingiest defense in the league. He is second on this list as we don't have a replacement FB.

3. Jamie Charman - much improved year until injury cut his season short. Lose Charman, and we have McDonald and Leuy doing all the ruck work. Is also an important player up forward to take the pressure off Brown.
4. Simon Black - the bloke is a champion. I don't think he can play as well as he did at the start of this year, but if he does, get on him for the Brownlow.
5. Daniel Bradshaw - was sorely missed last season. Forms a formidible double act with Brown when fit and it means one of them can stay at home. A problem we had in 07 was when Brown led up the ground, he had to wait for someone to run into the forward 50 to provide an option.

Best team (age):
B: Macdonald (23), Merrett (22), Roe (23)
HB: Lappin (31), Patfull (22), Drummond (24)
C: Johnstone (27), Adcock (22), Notting (29)
HF: Hooper (19), Brown (26), Brennan (23)
F: Clark (20), Bradshaw (29), Sherman (20)
Foll: Charman (25), Black (28), Power (27)
Int (from): Leuenberger (19), Rischitelli (21), Selwood (23), Stiller (21), McGrath (24), Copeland (26), Corrie (23), Harding (21)

In the wings: Austin (18), Collier (18), Dalziell (20), Hawksley (18), Henderson (17), McDonald (28), Mills (20), Moody (22), Polkenhorne (18), Proud (19), Schmidt (19), Sheldon (18), Tyler (19)

Rookies: Begley, Clouston, Dzufer, Kiel, Tippett, Hanley, Garner*

4 to watch:
Rhan Hooper - had a super 2007 when he was on the park and looks like he will be a very damaging midfielder. Applies so much pressure in the forward 50 with his chasing and tackling. Much more than a small forward - he will get plenty of time in the guts next season. Looks great at training as well.

Mitch Clark - has been "one to watch" for a couple of years but hasn't been able to get on to the park regularly due to injuries. It is my understanding that he is undergoing a similar program that Browny undertook so hopefully his body will be a lot stronger. Watch this guy in the ALFQ and you know he deserves a spot in the highest league. He will have a bit of competition for his spot next season from Mills, Copeland, and Henderson, but I predict he will have a super year.

Scott Harding - fell a little behind in the pecking order last season, but he is exactly what the Lions need. He is quick, hard at the ball and contest, and he can find the footy. Expect to see him play more games in 08. Brisbane's list looks in a lot better shape if Harding fulfills his potential.

Josh Drummond - hard to believe this bloke has only played 32 games of AFL football. He looks like he was born to play at the highest level. Calm, smooth disposal, can play on big or tall forwards, tough, and immensely talented. Josh averaged 21 possessions and 6 marks in 2007 and was greatly missed at the start of the year. Brisbane look a different team with Drummo on the park. Warwick's prediction: he will finish top 3 in the 2008 Merrett-Murray medal.

Strengths: Forward line when it is up and firing - Brown, Bradshaw, Clark, Brennan, Hooper, McGrath, Charman, and Leuenberger should all see considerable time up there in 2008. Our KPP depth is starting to look incredible - Brown, Bradshaw, Clark, Charman, Leuenberger, McDonald, Merrett, Roe, Patfull, Brennan, Henderson, and Collier, with Clouston and Tippett as rookies.

Weaknesses: The midfield can be shut down too easily in games - we need to find blokes who can get the ball and break free of the congestion. Our kicking for goal and kick-ins after an opposition's behind is also arguably the worst in the league. We also flood back and zone-off leaving a vacant forward 50 - we were forced to stop in the middle of the ground and wait for options. That has to be fixed by getting our running brigade up and going.

Ins: Johnstone, Henderson, Collier, Polkinghorne, Dalziell, Austin, Hanley (r)
Outs: Wood, Hadley, Voss, Scott, Johnson, Fixter, Allan

Absolutely awesome read up on the Lions; will get around to reading the other clubs over the weekend.

2 minor points I have a differing opinion on....I think that S.Black is well and truly our 2nd most important player with Merrett 3rd. If for some reason Black didn't play the majority of games this season, we'd struggle to make finals.

Merrett is the most improved player in the AFL, more so than McIntosh who is still not in the TOP 5 ruckmen in the league in my opinion. Merrett has replacements if something goes wrong (Roe, Garner, Collier, Patfull etc)......no one on our list could replace Blacky.

Secondly, I have massive doubts on Harding as an AFL player. Whilst his endeavour can never be questioned, I don't see him ticking enough boxes to stay on our list after this season. It would take a massive improvement in both ball winning ability and disposal output for him to be retained, sepecially if Proud shows a bit.

All in all though, an excellent piece of journalism

 

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Re: Warwick's verbose, unnecessary, and entirely inaccurate 2008 ladder prediction (bookmarks welcom

Merrett is the most improved player in the AFL, more so than McIntosh who is still not in the TOP 5 ruckmen in the league in my opinion. Merrett has replacements if something goes wrong (Roe, Garner, Collier, Patfull etc)......no one on our list could replace Blacky.

Two points.

Firstly you're arguing that Merrett is the most improved footballer in the league.

I think that comes down to your measurement. In terms of pure impact per game, that would be a viable argument.

I think 75% of the increased output we got from him was through simply playing him a spot which played to his strengths -- size, power, speed, athleticism -- and not his weaknesses -- namely footy smarts and decision-making.

Another 20% was probably pure confidence, after it started working, and the remaining 5% was actual improvement. I'm not bagging the Red by any means, but I think it was immediately clear how much better he was suited to fullback the minute he was moved there in late 2006, and we saw that in 2007.

McIntosh played the same role he's always played, but just did it much better and longer than before. That's pure improvement.

Anyways, it's taken Big Red four years to develop to current stage, but you've thrown up Roe (who was dropped at stages last season) and two kids who've hardly even played at Suncoast between them (Collier and Garner) as potential fill-ins, should Red go down. Gee, I hope it doesn't come to that.

While fullbacks can certainly get some help from their fellow defenders, plenty of times every game it comes down to a very simple one-on-one battle with a gun forward -- Gehrig, Lynch, Fev, Lloyd, Hall, etc -- and losing that battle bleeds immediate goals most of the time.

In other words, a 50% loss of 'fullback efficiency' might cost you 4-5 goals a game -- more than enough to turn solid wins into solid losses.

As far as 'replaceability' goes, few players in the comp are going to be talented enough to replace Black's skill, leadership and decision-making by themselves, but the midfield is effectively 'a team within a team' so a step up across the on baller division can pick up a lot of the slack.

For instance, TJ might give you Black's footskills and gliding runs, Rischa might up his grunt, Lappin and Power might call more shots, Adcock might add more smarts and Proud and Hooper might add some extra sizzle. Not one of them has singularly replaced Black, but the shortfall in output has been collectively made up.

Case in point, we entered last season without Voss (who had played every game the year before) yet most would agree our midfield was more effective than it was in 2006 -- the raw stats certainly say we were. We got enough improvement from Notting, Rischitelli, Adcock, Hooper, etc to more than offset the loss of Vossy's output.

I'd hate to be forced to look for a Black fill-in, but I think it's a technically easier task than finding an equally capable fill-in for Merrett.