We are better off in 5th than 4th

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Ambrose Burnside

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Dec 8, 2006
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The only advantage to finishing 5th is that I get the chance to see the boys live one more time in 2020.

Last year finishing in the top 4 was in our hands, and we blew it, this year we're relying on 5th to lose to 15th. UnLuCkY.
 

EagleEgo

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Approaching this statement in a mathematical way and assuming all final matches are 50-50 chance of winning,
1. The probability of winning the flag from the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th = 6.25%.
2. The probability of winning the flag from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th = 18.75%
From the figures, playing from the 4th has 3 times the probability of winning the flag than from the 5th.

Of course, here the assumption has taken away the home ground and crowd advantages.
 
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InNicNatWeTrust

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Other than our wins, I can’t think of a single ******* result that has gone our way over the past two weeks. Perhaps even the past month.

Just needed one or two of the really close results in other games to go the another way (or JD to kick straight), and we’d be sitting pretty in the top 4.

It’s just the luck of things sometimes. That coupled with our horrid injuries at the wrong time of year.

The footy gods seem pissed about something we’ve done.
Yeah we have had a bad run recently.
 

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woosha24

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Apr 5, 2015
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Should not have dropped that game against GC.
For mine the GC game was forgivable - early in the hub, no idea when we were going home. Club was in shambles.

The Dogs game was the diabolical one. Match committee refused to pick a winning team. If Nic had played then we finish 4th and would have a shot at another flag. As it stands we're staring down the barrel at another wasted season.
 

Rowan18

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Is 4th that much better than 5th? We're all assuming if we finished 4th we would be playing Port in Wk 1 and likely beat them, however, they finished first for a reason. If we lost to them, we would find ourselves in QLD playing the Cats in Wk 2, and likely Richmond in a prelim week 3.

Now, we will play Melbourne or Collingwood wk 1 at home. Win that and there's a good chance we play the Cats in QLD wk 2, with a prelim waiting in Wk3 for the winner (likely against Richmond). Looks pretty similar to me.
 

squashface

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I still would say 4th is better 5th but this year 5th isn’t as bad. Shortened season means not having a possible rest in Week 2 isn’t as much of an issue
 

wce4premiership

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4th is better than 5th and it isn't even close.

Double chance. That is all. That is the most important thing.

We can win 4 in a row, but we can't play like we have so far at Metricon, and the team needs to avoid further injury. Getting the team to fire on all cylinders with what I assume will be a minimum of 3 changes, probably more than that, will be the biggest issue.
 

Karim Abdul Yeo

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Approaching this statement in a mathematical way and assuming all final matches are 50-50 chance of winning,
1. The probability of winning the flag from the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th = 6.25%.
2. The probability of winning the flag from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th = 18.75%
From the figures, playing from the 4th has 3 times the probability of winning the flag than from the 5th.

Of course, here the assumption has taken away the home ground and crowd advantages.
I will challenge the above Data. could you also give us the break down of probability of winning from 4th instead of giving a probability of winning as a group ( 1st to 4th) ?? Of course the % would be higher if you include 1st 2nd and 3rd into your calculations.Last time a team went on to win the flag from finishing 4th in H/A was back in 1997( thats 1 in 23 years which is roughly 4.4%). Interestingly enough teams who finish 2nd and 3rd have the highest percentage of conversion to winning the flag. Adelaide also went on to win the flag in 1998 from finishing 5th.

So incorrect! probability of winning a flag from finishing 4th is definitely not 3 times more than 5th. It is better but not that much. As I said before many times, double chance is only relevant to Eagles if they finish top 2 cuz they have home ground advantage week 1.



Many thanks.
 

daddy_4_eyes

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Approaching this statement in a mathematical way and assuming all final matches are 50-50 chance of winning,
1. The probability of winning the flag from the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th = 6.25%.
2. The probability of winning the flag from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th = 18.75%
From the figures, playing from the 4th has 3 times the probability of winning the flag than from the 5th.

Of course, here the assumption has taken away the home ground and crowd advantages.
You need to adjust your formula for the "unprecedented times" factor.
1. The probability of Brisbane winning the flag from any position after not travelling = 89.65%
2. The probability of any other club winning the flag = 1.62%
 

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EagleEgo

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I will challenge the above Data. could you also give us the break down of probability of winning from 4th instead of giving a probability of winning as a group ( 1st to 4th) ?? Of course the % would be higher if you include 1st 2nd and 3rd into your calculations.Last time a team went on to win the flag from finishing 4th in H/A was back in 1997( thats 1 in 23 years which is roughly 4.4%). Interestingly enough teams who finish 2nd and 3rd have the highest percentage of conversion to winning the flag. Adelaide also went on to win the flag in 1998 from finishing 5th.

So incorrect! probability of winning a flag from finishing 4th is definitely not 3 times more than 5th. It is better but not that much. As I said before many times, double chance is only relevant to Eagles if they finish top 2 cuz they have home ground advantage week 1.



Many thanks.
I am not a professor in mathematics, however I will try my best to explain the caculation.
First of all, in order to understand a bit more, you need to understand the following terms and concept
1. Independent events.
2. Mutual exclusive
3. Binomial Probability
You can find those basic knwledge from "Introduction to Probability and Statistics". Books that you can download from the pdf drive.
The two figures I published are based on the assumption of
1. All final matches are 50-50 chance of losing and winning.
2. No home ground advantage has factored in.
(of course you can argue it is not the case but it is the assumption for simplicity)
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th are regarded as equal chance (when no home ground advatage). Similarly, for 5th-8th position.
Hence:
1. Probability of winning from 1st - 4th position.
={ P(win in 1st week)×P(win in 3rd week)xP(win in GF)} + {(P(loss in 1st week)×P(win in 2nd week)×P(win in 3rd week)xP(win in GF)}
=0.5×0.5×0.5 + 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5
=0.125 + 0.0625
=0.1875
=18.75%

2. Probability of winning from 5th - 8th position.
={ P(win in 1st week)×P(win in 2nd week)×P(win in 3rd week)xP(win in GF)}
= 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5
=0.0625
=6.25%

If you dont understand why "multiply" or "add" in the formula, then you have to read those books I mentioned earlier. Some Year 12 Applicable Mathematics books cover these concepts too.
 
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EagleEgo

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You need to adjust your formula for the "unprecedented times" factor.
1. The probability of Brisbane winning the flag from any position after not travelling = 89.65%
2. The probability of any other club winning the flag = 1.62%
I assume you are giving the two number for fun and try to highlight Brisbane has a hugh advantage having finals and GF in Queensland.

However, the two number should add up to 1 (that is 100%)
 

Jeeves

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In the past the top 4 had the advantage of playing on their home grounds, which only Brisbane, Port and WCE get this year so I think the disadvantage of finishing 5-8 is nowhere near as great as in other years. Not having to travel is a big plus for those teams. This could be a year when a team outside of the top 4 wins the GF.
 

daddy_4_eyes

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I assume you are giving the two number for fun and try to highlight Brisbane has a hugh advantage having finals and GF in Queensland.

However, the two number should add up to 1 (that is 100%)
(7 teams x 1.62%) + Brisbane 89.65% = 100.
That said, I worded that to suggest the total of those 7 teams chances = 1.62%

I left an opening for the season to be called off as Tom Hanks spreads Corona for a second time?
 

Karim Abdul Yeo

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I am not a professor in mathematics, however I will try my best to explain the caculation.
First of all, in order to understand a bit more, you need to understand the following terms and concept
1. Independent events.
2. Mutual exclusive
3. Binomial Probability
You can find those basic knwledge from "Introduction to Probability and Statistics".
The two figures I published are based on the assumption of
1. All final matches are 50-50 chance of losing and winning.
2. No home ground advantage has factored in.
(of course you can argue it is not the case but it is the assumption for simplicity)
1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th are regarded as equal chance (when no home ground advatage). Similarly, for 5th-8th position.
Hence:
1. Probability of winning from 1st - 4th position.
={ P(win in 1st week)×P(win in 3rd week)xP(win in GF)} + {(P(loss in 1st week)×P(win in 2nd week)×P(win in 3rd week)xP(win in GF)}
=0.5×0.5×0.5 + 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5
=0.125 + 0.0625
=0.1875
=18.75%

2. Probability of winning from 5th - 8th position.
={ P(win in 1st week)×P(win in 2nd week)×P(win in 3rd week)xP(win in GF)}
= 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5
=0.0625
=6.25%

If you dont understand why "multiply" or "add" in the formula, then you have to read those books, I mentioned. Somme Year 12 Applicable Mathematics books cover these concepts too.
Thank you for you detailed response. My question was a little different to your response. I did enquire about factual data ( not probability) of a team going on to win a flag from finishing 4th versus 5th or any other ladder position.All matches are not 50-50 on win lose either. I am not sure how you reached that conclusion. For that reason your entire calculation is flawed due to a simplification of no home court advantage .Well Port, Eagles and Lions clearly have home court advantage in first week of finals.

Even if we decide to go with your method and say no team has home court advantage, then you need to take into account each teams record on that specific ground and also consider their ladder position and form not to mention head to head with the opponent ( go through same win loss record of this opponent on the same ground) before calculating their probability on that game head to head. I can assure you that 50-50 is not the case for a single game this finals series.

You can't apply probability in its simplest format to this case which is impacted by many other variables. I could be wrong though.This was my interpretation of your analysis.
 

Ok Boomer

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Deep down I think there are too many factors against us this year.

Queensland conditions are just awful for us. Harder to control the ball and suits ground ball teams. We love control and suck at ground balls, particularly in defence and attack. I think all going well we are a shot against Geelong, Brisbane and even Port but it will take a monumental effort to beat Richmond. Shorter quarters I don't think suit us either as it reduces the fatigue factor for ground ball scrum teams. It also seems like Elliot Yeo is cooked for the year which robs our midfield of the grunt it needs. I hope he wasn't carrying that injury for long before the plug was pulled.
 

daddy_4_eyes

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Thank you for you detailed response. My question was a little different to your response. I did enquire about factual data ( not probability) of a team going on to win a flag from finishing 4th versus 5th or any other ladder position.All matches are not 50-50 on win lose either. I am not sure how you reached that conclusion. For that reason your entire calculation is flawed due to a simplification of no home court advantage .Well Port, Eagles and Lions clearly have home court advantage in first week of finals.

Even if we decide to go with your method and say no team has home court advantage, then you need to take into account each teams record on that specific ground and also consider their ladder position and form not to mention head to head with the opponent ( go through same win loss record of this opponent on the same ground) before calculating their probability on that game head to head. I can assure you that 50-50 is not the case for a single game this finals series.

You can't apply probability in its simplest format to this case which is impacted by many other variables. I could be wrong though.This was my interpretation of your analysis.
That's the point he was making though. The finals are designed in such a way that your chances of winning a flag are 3 times better if you finish top 4 than 5-8.

Add home ground advantage the top 2 will hold all the way until the grand final, and I'm certain those odds become increasingly in favour of the top 4 sides.
 

Jupes

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fu** the ARC just quietly. the plus side is if there was going to be a year to win it from 5th this is it.
 

EagleEgo

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Thank you for you detailed response. My question was a little different to your response. I did enquire about factual data ( not probability) of a team going on to win a flag from finishing 4th versus 5th or any other ladder position.All matches are not 50-50 on win lose either. I am not sure how you reached that conclusion. For that reason your entire calculation is flawed due to a simplification of no home court advantage .Well Port, Eagles and Lions clearly have home court advantage in first week of finals.

Even if we decide to go with your method and say no team has home court advantage, then you need to take into account each teams record on that specific ground and also consider their ladder position and form not to mention head to head with the opponent ( go through same win loss record of this opponent on the same ground) before calculating their probability on that game head to head. I can assure you that 50-50 is not the case for a single game this finals series.

You can't apply probability in its simplest format to this case which is impacted by many other variables. I could be wrong though.This was my interpretation of your analysis.
I would not use the word "flawed" to describe the two published numbers as the assumption is clearly defined.
This is a real world and is far from perfect. Hence most quantiative estimates are derived from part assumptions and part factual quantities.
You are right and I have also mentioned in the assumptions that not all games are 50-50. If you are interested in refining the number yourself, you can use a different " win-loss" and caculate the two numbers based on the same given formula.
(We all have a different perception of what the win-loss is for an AFL match. For example, today‘s Sydney-Geelong game is with odd $5-$1.2 which equate to win-loss of about "20-80". This is a view before the game. However, after the game, I can say the game is very close to a 50-50 game.)
 

EagleEgo

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Sometimes negative message can create positive motivation for the players. Hope that the Eagles players will try harder in the Finals knowing that they have not done enough to be in the top 4.
Remember the negative mesage from Robert Walls in 2018.

 
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