List Mgmt. We Have A Bright Future

[PaulBulluss]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021.

What we've effectively done is just allowed things to play out and with the system as it is it was always going to end up like this.

We're going to start 2024 with Bolton our only genuine A grader / elite level player.

The next tier of player is a bunch of declining former A graders and guys we hoped could reach that level but most likely won't - Martin, Prestia, Lynch, Taranto, Hopper.

Below that group are guys who have played at a high level (premiership players, winners of individual awards) but who aren't at that level where you can say they could ever form the core of a contending team - Vlastuin, Baker, D.Rioli, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad, Graham. All are good players on their day but need that A grade quality around them.

Too make matters worse too many guys from the above groups are / have become injury prone and can't be relied upon to play a full season. We no longer have the depth to cover a couple of injuries, let alone a few.

The others are Grimes, who probably should hang them up. And someone like Gibcus, who we really don't know what he'll be like next year despite looking extremely promising in 2022. Sonsie and Cumberland are complete head scratchers. At the end of 2022 I think 99% of us saw them in our best 22 moving forward.

The rest are a mix of unproven kids, role players and list-fillers.

So, next year we'll have one A grader, maybe two if you still want to include Dusty. In terms of potential A graders, guys who could feasibly come up in 2024, I really don't see anyone. Every list should have 3-4 guys who at least look likely but we don't.

Broad, Balta, Short
D.Rioli, Young, Vlastuin
?????, Taranto, ?????
Martin, Gibcus, Bolton
Cumberland, Lynch, Baker
Nankervis, Prestia, Hopper

Ross, Ralpsmith, Soldo, Grimes, Pickett, Miller, M.Rioli, Sonsie, Graham, Bauer, Banks, Clarke, McIntosh, Ryan, Dow, Coulthard, Brown, Tresize...

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021.

What we've effectively done is just allowed things to play out and with the system as it is it was always going to end up like this.

We're going to start 2024 with Bolton our only genuine A grader / elite level player.

The next tier of player is a bunch of declining former A graders and guys we hoped could reach that level but most likely won't - Martin, Prestia, Lynch, Taranto, Hopper.

Below that group are guys who have played at a high level (premiership players, winners of individual awards) but who aren't at that level where you can say they could ever form the core of a contending team - Vlastuin, Baker, D.Rioli, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad, Graham. All are good players on their day but need that A grade quality around them.

Too make matters worse too many guys from the above groups are / have become injury prone and can't be relied upon to play a full season. We no longer have the depth to cover a couple of injuries, let alone a few.

The others are Grimes, who probably should hang them up. And someone like Gibcus, who we really don't know what he'll be like next year despite looking extremely promising in 2022. Sonsie and Cumberland are complete head scratchers. At the end of 2022 I think 99% of us saw them in our best 22 moving forward.

The rest are a mix of unproven kids, role players and list-fillers.

So, next year we'll have one A grader, maybe two if you still want to include Dusty. In terms of potential A graders, guys who could feasibly come up in 2024, I really don't see anyone. Every list should have 3-4 guys who at least look likely but we don't.

Broad, Balta, Short
D.Rioli, Young, Vlastuin
?????, Taranto, ?????
Martin, Gibcus, Bolton
Cumberland, Lynch, Baker
Nankervis, Prestia, Hopper

Ross, Ralpsmith, Soldo, Grimes, Pickett, Miller, M.Rioli, Sonsie, Graham, Bauer, Banks, Clarke, McIntosh, Ryan, Dow, Coulthard, Brown, Tresize...

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

Pickett and McIntosh are still well and truly up for it.

 

[Sir_Loin]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021.

What we've effectively done is just allowed things to play out and with the system as it is it was always going to end up like this.

We're going to start 2024 with Bolton our only genuine A grader / elite level player.

The next tier of player is a bunch of declining former A graders and guys we hoped could reach that level but most likely won't - Martin, Prestia, Lynch, Taranto, Hopper.

Below that group are guys who have played at a high level (premiership players, winners of individual awards) but who aren't at that level where you can say they could ever form the core of a contending team - Vlastuin, Baker, D.Rioli, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad, Graham. All are good players on their day but need that A grade quality around them.

Too make matters worse too many guys from the above groups are / have become injury prone and can't be relied upon to play a full season. We no longer have the depth to cover a couple of injuries, let alone a few.

The others are Grimes, who probably should hang them up. And someone like Gibcus, who we really don't know what he'll be like next year despite looking extremely promising in 2022. Sonsie and Cumberland are complete head scratchers. At the end of 2022 I think 99% of us saw them in our best 22 moving forward.

The rest are a mix of unproven kids, role players and list-fillers.

So, next year we'll have one A grader, maybe two if you still want to include Dusty. In terms of potential A graders, guys who could feasibly come up in 2024, I really don't see anyone. Every list should have 3-4 guys who at least look likely but we don't.

Broad, Balta, Short
D.Rioli, Young, Vlastuin
?????, Taranto, ?????
Martin, Gibcus, Bolton
Cumberland, Lynch, Baker
Nankervis, Prestia, Hopper

Ross, Ralpsmith, Soldo, Grimes, Pickett, Miller, M.Rioli, Sonsie, Graham, Bauer, Banks, Clarke, McIntosh, Ryan, Dow, Coulthard, Brown, Tresize...

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

I’m not sure what people expect. Coming off a dominate period we were always going to have to restart the list.

We’ve tried to do that with the drafts we’ve hit hard. We’re rebuilding. And I think we’ve been doing it the last few years.

Enjoy it. The climb is the best bit about going to the footy

 

[PaulBulluss]

Age profile (round 1, 2024)...

29+ (9)
Vlastuin, Grimes, Prestia, Martin, Lynch, Nankervis, Broad, McIntosh, Pickett

23-28 (17)
Ross, Baker, Taranto, Short, D.Rioli, Soldo, Balta, Hopper, Bolton, Ryan, Mansell, Graham, Cumberland, Colina, Young, Miller, Bradtke

22 and under (15)
M.Rioli, Ralphsmith, Coulthard, Dow, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke, Bauer, Campbell, Nyuon, Green, Smith, Tresize

Five of our most important players are 29 or over.

Only about seven of our 23-28 year olds are clear-cut in our best 22.

Of the 22 and under players only one is definitely in our best 22 (and he's coming off a season long injury).

 

[PaulBulluss]

Pickett and McIntosh are still well and truly up for it.

Based on what? If they were 4-5 years younger I'd agree.

 

[PaulBulluss]

I’m not sure what people expect. Coming off a dominate period we were always going to have to restart the list.

We’ve tried to do that with the drafts we’ve hit hard. We’re rebuilding. And I think we’ve been doing it the last few years.

Enjoy it. The climb is the best bit about going to the footy

Which drafts did we hit hard? As far as I can tell we've done a bit of everything since the last flag which pretty much equals zero in this system. Having so many guys go around who are/were clearly over the hill is not a rebuild.

 

[PaulBulluss]

Btw, I realise when you win 3 flags in 4 years you're not going to get a chance to draft top talent. But that's why you have to be brutal when the time comes.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Btw, I realise when you win 3 flags in 4 years you're not going to get a chance to draft top talent. But that's why you have to be brutal when the time comes.

Which drafts did we hit hard? As far as I can tell we've done a bit of everything since the last flag which pretty much equals zero in this system. Having so many guys go around who are/were clearly over the hill is not a rebuild.

CBF with these alt accounts when these campaigners get banned. You asked 2021 is one draft year we hit hard.

Grow up campaigner

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Based on what? If they were 4-5 years younger I'd agree.

McIntosh is 29, and Pickett 31.Pickett started at 25 or 26 so his body is not battered.
They easily get into our best 22 imo.
Look at the Geelong premiership team, old blokes everywhere.
We don't have many players over 30 at all.

 

[TiggerMan22]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021.

What we've effectively done is just allowed things to play out and with the system as it is it was always going to end up like this.

We're going to start 2024 with Bolton our only genuine A grader / elite level player.

The next tier of player is a bunch of declining former A graders and guys we hoped could reach that level but most likely won't - Martin, Prestia, Lynch, Taranto, Hopper.

Below that group are guys who have played at a high level (premiership players, winners of individual awards) but who aren't at that level where you can say they could ever form the core of a contending team - Vlastuin, Baker, D.Rioli, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad, Graham. All are good players on their day but need that A grade quality around them.

Too make matters worse too many guys from the above groups are / have become injury prone and can't be relied upon to play a full season. We no longer have the depth to cover a couple of injuries, let alone a few.

The others are Grimes, who probably should hang them up. And someone like Gibcus, who we really don't know what he'll be like next year despite looking extremely promising in 2022. Sonsie and Cumberland are complete head scratchers. At the end of 2022 I think 99% of us saw them in our best 22 moving forward.

The rest are a mix of unproven kids, role players and list-fillers.

So, next year we'll have one A grader, maybe two if you still want to include Dusty. In terms of potential A graders, guys who could feasibly come up in 2024, I really don't see anyone. Every list should have 3-4 guys who at least look likely but we don't.

Broad, Balta, Short
D.Rioli, Young, Vlastuin
?????, Taranto, ?????
Martin, Gibcus, Bolton
Cumberland, Lynch, Baker
Nankervis, Prestia, Hopper

Ross, Ralpsmith, Soldo, Grimes, Pickett, Miller, M.Rioli, Sonsie, Graham, Bauer, Banks, Clarke, McIntosh, Ryan, Dow, Coulthard, Brown, Tresize...

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

Absolutely silly captain hindsight nonsense. You're going to rebuild directly after winning your 3rd flag in 4 years? That sounds like the biggest culture killer move of all time

 

[TiggerMan22]

Which drafts did we hit hard? As far as I can tell we've done a bit of everything since the last flag which pretty much equals zero in this system. Having so many guys go around who are/were clearly over the hill is not a rebuild.

We literally drafted 5 top 30 picks in 2021

 

[PaulBulluss]

Yeah, that's one draft. We're going to go two years without a first rounder after getting Gibcus and Brown in 2021.

2021 was the right way to about things, and then we traded away everything plus more for two solid players. And then the coach jumps ship a few weeks into the season.

Since the 2020 flag, we've got nothing right when it comes to list management and building for the future. I'm not trying to make it sound easy nor am I captain hindsight. This was my opinion 7-8 weeks into the 2021 season.

 

[blaisee]

Round 1 2024

Seniors

FB Broad Young Flossy
HB Short Gibcus Rioli
C Banks Taranto Ross
HF Martin Balta Baker
FF Bauer Lynch Coulthard
Foll Nank Bolton Hopper

Plenty of young talent on the list

Depth Prestia Grimes Graham Soldo Dow DMac Pickett Ryan Cumberland Brown Trezise Clarke MRJ

 

[Coach_Required]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021.

What we've effectively done is just allowed things to play out and with the system as it is it was always going to end up like this.

We're going to start 2024 with Bolton our only genuine A grader / elite level player.

The next tier of player is a bunch of declining former A graders and guys we hoped could reach that level but most likely won't - Martin, Prestia, Lynch, Taranto, Hopper.

Below that group are guys who have played at a high level (premiership players, winners of individual awards) but who aren't at that level where you can say they could ever form the core of a contending team - Vlastuin, Baker, D.Rioli, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad, Graham. All are good players on their day but need that A grade quality around them.

Too make matters worse too many guys from the above groups are / have become injury prone and can't be relied upon to play a full season. We no longer have the depth to cover a couple of injuries, let alone a few.

The others are Grimes, who probably should hang them up. And someone like Gibcus, who we really don't know what he'll be like next year despite looking extremely promising in 2022. Sonsie and Cumberland are complete head scratchers. At the end of 2022 I think 99% of us saw them in our best 22 moving forward.

The rest are a mix of unproven kids, role players and list-fillers.

So, next year we'll have one A grader, maybe two if you still want to include Dusty. In terms of potential A graders, guys who could feasibly come up in 2024, I really don't see anyone. Every list should have 3-4 guys who at least look likely but we don't.

Broad, Balta, Short
D.Rioli, Young, Vlastuin
?????, Taranto, ?????
Martin, Gibcus, Bolton
Cumberland, Lynch, Baker
Nankervis, Prestia, Hopper

Ross, Ralpsmith, Soldo, Grimes, Pickett, Miller, M.Rioli, Sonsie, Graham, Bauer, Banks, Clarke, McIntosh, Ryan, Dow, Coulthard, Brown, Tresize...

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

We kind of did start the rebuild process though. 2021 we selected 5 kids inside the top 30. I guess the error was finishing in the 8 last year and then trading in Taranto and Hopper. I personally think both were needed though because our midfield is terrible.

The only negative take from our 5 selection IMO was not recruiting another key player along with Gibcus. If we had a young forward right now, we would be a bit more balanced.

 

[PaulBulluss]

We kind of did start the rebuild process though. 2021 we selected 5 kids inside the top 30. I guess the error was finishing in the 8 last year and then trading in Taranto and Hopper. I personally think both were needed though because our midfield is terrible.

The only negative take from our 5 selection IMO was not recruiting another key player along with Gibcus. If we had a young forward right now, we would be a bit more balanced.

Yep. It's clear the finals run in 2022 was a trap the decision makers fell into. Adding two quality mids for possibly the last tilt, plus they could argue TT and JH are still young enough to make medium term contributions.

Just reeks of no vision or direction. You can't half rebuild, you can't start and then change your mind. This is the most unbalanced (age and positions) list we've had in 30 years.

Again, I realise these things aren't so easy when you're winning flags/at the top for 4-5 years but you sort of have to always have one eye on the future.

I can take fans being sentimental and emotional but these guys running things shouldn't be. They're paid to make good, logical decisions.

 

[Grrr]

McIntosh is 29, and Pickett 31.Pickett started at 25 or 26 so his body is not battered.
They easily get into our best 22 imo.
Look at the Geelong premiership team, old blokes everywhere.
We don't have many players over 30 at all.

Let's look at Geelong's old blokes everywhere and the careers up to the 2022 premiership.
Danger - star+
Selwood - star+
Smith - star
Hawkiins - star
Guthrie - A grade
Duncan - A grade
Blicavs - AA (2022)
Stanley - Good solid player.

They like our old blokes are mostly great to very good players. They are not roie players, as these types get replaced.
Pickett has an excuse this year as he has been played well out of position, so deserves another shot.
MacIntosh has been a good player over his career, but had a lesser year, so no not best 22 when looking forward.

 

[Bird Man]

The only way we rebound is if one of our A+ players asks for a trade and we get overs for him.

Get 3 first rounders 2 in the top 10 and 1 in the top 5. Then in 2025 we start building towards winning finals.

 

[Tonythetiger]

Yep. It's clear the finals run in 2022 was a trap the decision makers fell into. Adding two quality mids for possibly the last tilt, plus they could argue TT and JH are still young enough to make medium term contributions.

Just reeks of no vision or direction. You can't half rebuild, you can't start and then change your mind. This is the most unbalanced (age and positions) list we've had in 30 years.

Again, I realise these things aren't so easy when you're winning flags/at the top for 4-5 years but you sort of have to always have one eye on the future.

I can take fans being sentimental and emotional but these guys running things shouldn't be. They're paid to make good, logical decisions.

Well put. We also had a bit of an optics issue where we traded the future first for Hopper so we had a bit of extra pressure to not finish bottom 4 which would have actually been a decent outcome if we had gotten a better look at the younger players on our list and had our first rounder.

It's good that guys like Coulthard, Banks, Brown and Tresize debuted and a late cameo from Dow, but if we had our first we could have gone a young side each week and really given these guys a decent go at cementing a position.

Hoping next year we are a bit more realistic with list as I imagine we will be. We can all stomach a couple of years down the bottom with a new coach, ideally by year 3 we would be showing signs of bearing the completion of the rebuild.

 

[Madtiger2006]

Pickett and McIntosh are still well and truly up for it.

They are the first we should trade.
Pickett just holds us back and Macca is being replaced by Banks

 

[Meteoric Rise]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021......

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

For a start, it would be even tougher going over the next few years if we didn't bring in Hopper and Taranto and if we had started trading away players of value for draft picks after 2020. The earliest players we drafted would be 4th year next year and still about 2 years from their prime....



Since 2020 in 3 off seasons, we have added 21yo or younger:

Ryan, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke, Bauer, Smith, Green, Campbell, Bradtke, Coulthard, Trezise.

Because we have a lack of big bodied inside mids in that lot and our existing prime aged players we also added:

24yo Taranto, 25yo Hopper. We gave up 3 picks that would be any realistic chance to draft an elite player to do this, picks 14, 22 and probably pick 8 or 9.

We also added 24yo Tyler Young.

And we took a hail mary on 22yo Mate Colina as a cat b rookie.

So from available picks in 4 drafts so far used: 9, 9, 14, 17, 22, 28, 29, 30, 34, 40, 49, 55, and some later picks, we have produced:

Taranto, Hopper, Young, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke, Ryan, Smith, Green, Rioli Jnr, Campbell, Mansell, Bauer, Bradtke, Trezise, Couthard, Colina.

With the 2023 haul likely from picks around 30, 43, 56 and rookie picks to come.

Of all these players we have added, we are highly likely to get about 2 elite players from the emerging group. Then we have added Taranto and Hopper who are borderline elite AFL footballers. Beside those from what we have already added, we look like having about another 6+ genuine long term useful AFL level footballers from all of this.

We are rebuilding significantly without losing established valuable players, AND we have added some high level established mature talent precisely to ensure the thing you seem to fear doesn't occur - very tough seasons for the next few years.

I think you have gotten yourself confused personally.

 

[PaulBulluss]

We're turning over a fair amount but that's not what I'd call rebuilding. A rebuild is aggressive, it entails a degree of risk, it requires calculation and some brutal honesty. Above all, it's a direction you take and you don't deviate.

After 2020 we did nothing (I'm not so disappointed by this as we were off a flag and why not go again).

For the 2021 season:

IN - Mansell, Ryan, Parker, Colina, M.Rioli

OUT - Higgins, Rance, Turner, Markov, English

After 2021 we looked like we we're on the rebuild road:

IN - Tarrant, Gibcus, Brown, Sonsie, Banks, Clarke, Bauer

OUT - Naish, Astbury, Houli, Coleman-Jones, Chol, Garthwaite, Eggmolesse-Smith

After 2022 we clearly abandoned a proper rebuild and decided we might contend next season:

IN - Taranto, Hopper, Coulthard, Bradtke, Campbell, Young, Green, Smith, Tresize

OUT - Edwards, Caddy, Lambert, Collier-Dawkins, Martyn, Aarts, Stack, Parker*, Castagna

Net result since 2020:

Traded out: Higgins, Markov, Coleman-Jones, Chol.

Traded in: Tarrant, Taranto, Hopper.

Brought in via the national draft: Gibcus (9),
Brown (17), Sonsie (28), Banks (29), Clarke (30), Ryan (40), Smith (49), M.Rioli (51 f/s), Green (55).

Lost to retirement: Rance, Astbury, Houli, Edwards, Caddy, Lambert, Castagna.

This year we have zero first round picks. The overall picture is we're not going the top up road and we're not hitting the draft in a sustained way. One top 10 pick and two top 20 picks since the last premiership is not going to get you a core for a future flag. Sure, you can get lucky and find future A graders at lower picks but that's a lottery. The draft in general is a lottery and when you're trying to find elite talent at picks 28, 29, 30, 40, 49 and 55 you're usually pushing s**t up a hill.

The tough times are inevitable. The best way to navigate them surely is to prepare and be one step ahead. For us that meant not letting veterans stick on too long and trading for better picks. I'm not saying we should've traded Dusty or Bolton in 2021 (an example of something drastic), just that we should've been proactive and stayed the course after the good start in 2021 (Gibcus, Brown).

I can't believe the delusion level of some people. On other topics I'm reading about Ryan being a good prospect lol. We had it good for a lot of years and I think that's skewed a lot of people's ability to judge things objectively.

Ps. Half of our premiership winning players (14 of 28 in total) were pick 29 or better in the national draft:

Cotchin (2), Martin (3), Caddy (7), Prestia (9), Vlastuin (9), Lynch (11), Riewoldt (13), Ellis (15), D.Rioli (15), Rance (18), Grigg (19), Balta (25), Edwards (26), Bolton (29).

 

[PaulBulluss]

We are rebuilding significantly without losing established valuable players, AND we have added some high level established mature talent precisely to ensure the thing you seem to fear doesn't occur - very tough seasons for the next few years.

It's not so much fear, it's more that it is inevitable. I'd rather finish 14th-16th than 10th-12th.

Losing established players is what, unfortunately, we have to do to give us the best shot to get up quicker. It's obvious that those established players are not (or no longer) good enough to keep us in contention. So where's the value?

 

[Tiger1974]

We should've been proactive after 2020, started the rebuild straight after that last flag by being more realistic than we were. At the very latest it should've been done after 2021.

What we've effectively done is just allowed things to play out and with the system as it is it was always going to end up like this.

We're going to start 2024 with Bolton our only genuine A grader / elite level player.

The next tier of player is a bunch of declining former A graders and guys we hoped could reach that level but most likely won't - Martin, Prestia, Lynch, Taranto, Hopper.

Below that group are guys who have played at a high level (premiership players, winners of individual awards) but who aren't at that level where you can say they could ever form the core of a contending team - Vlastuin, Baker, D.Rioli, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Broad, Graham. All are good players on their day but need that A grade quality around them.

Too make matters worse too many guys from the above groups are / have become injury prone and can't be relied upon to play a full season. We no longer have the depth to cover a couple of injuries, let alone a few.

The others are Grimes, who probably should hang them up. And someone like Gibcus, who we really don't know what he'll be like next year despite looking extremely promising in 2022. Sonsie and Cumberland are complete head scratchers. At the end of 2022 I think 99% of us saw them in our best 22 moving forward.

The rest are a mix of unproven kids, role players and list-fillers.

So, next year we'll have one A grader, maybe two if you still want to include Dusty. In terms of potential A graders, guys who could feasibly come up in 2024, I really don't see anyone. Every list should have 3-4 guys who at least look likely but we don't.

Broad, Balta, Short
D.Rioli, Young, Vlastuin
?????, Taranto, ?????
Martin, Gibcus, Bolton
Cumberland, Lynch, Baker
Nankervis, Prestia, Hopper

Ross, Ralpsmith, Soldo, Grimes, Pickett, Miller, M.Rioli, Sonsie, Graham, Bauer, Banks, Clarke, McIntosh, Ryan, Dow, Coulthard, Brown, Tresize...

It's going to be very tough going for the next few years.

We did start list rebuild in 2021. 5 top 30 draft picks.

 

[The Mighty]

need the 2021 draft class to take a significant step up and even then were still cooked, ah well atleast we took our opportunities for the flag, better then lingering in the 8 and never winning it

And never suffered the pain of losing the GF.

Won all3 we took part in.

Best

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It's not so much fear, it's more that it is inevitable. I'd rather finish 14th-16th than 10th-12th.

Losing established players is what, unfortunately, we have to do to give us the best shot to get up quicker. It's obvious that those established players are not (or no longer) good enough to keep us in contention. So where's the value?

Is there actually a relevant correlation between having a run of low finishes and then winning flags when the resultant top 6 draft picks mature over the next 8-10 seasons?

I used the word relevant there due to this being the free agency era.

I think it is best to get the best team you can on the park and compete as hard as you can every year. Otherwise your young players are coming into a difficult culture. No doubt you have to box a bit clever late season when you have your first round pick available and you realise a while out that you are not going to contend seriously. This gives you the odd top 10 pick. I think if the club develops a losing culture or lacks on-field leadership it takes longer to fire once you have a talented list that is mature enough to contend. It has taken Carlton 2 years really. It took us 4 from when we emerged from the depths to when we could actually contend.

If we were to look at samples of teams finishing 18th 17th 16th 15th on one hand and say 14th 13th 12th 11th on the other hand. And then projected forward say 8-12 seasons and look at the finishing positions of the teams in those 2 samples. Which sample do you think would have the better results?

Or like you say compare teams finishing 14-16 with those finishing 10-12. What would you actually expect to see from those teams in terms of their performance 8-12 years after those finishes?