Prediction We will Play Finals

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fred cook

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I hope we play West Coast. At our best we beat them and now that we know how to break their system (kick low, along ground if you have to. Anything to stop a high ball which their defenders will mark because they are crap on ground), definitely lose the ruck contest though.
you forgot one thing the final will be in Perth which generally makes them a 90 per cent better team
 

TommyD13

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Two rounds to go, the picture will be much clearer before our game against Hawthorn starts. If we win both games we should make it so it really is in our own hands, but will be interesting to see how results pan out. By Sunday we could be certain that 2 wins does the trick
 

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perro_loco

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His team makes him look good a lot of the time IMO. This is one of the things about having an experienced list, these guys can switch gears and tactics a lot more easily than a side half filled with blokes just wanting their next kick.
Actually, in hindsight, I think the dogs exposed Geelong's weaknesses in the first quarter. The reason they beat us was that we only had two rotations and our ruck and midfield were spent by the last quarter due to that. Plus Bevo's dumb idea of having Dunkley ruck. Other coaches will have picked up on what we did to them and adjust accordingly. It happened to them last year and in the finals Geeldong fell apart. The main reason for them falling apart is that I think their midfield is very slow and in finals that kills you. Expect a repeat of the last two years for Geelong.
 

House_of_Dahl

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Actually, in hindsight, I think the dogs exposed Geelong's weaknesses in the first quarter. The reason they beat us was that we only had two rotations and our ruck and midfield were spent by the last quarter due to that. Plus Bevo's dumb idea of having Dunkley ruck. Other coaches will have picked up on what we did to them and adjust accordingly. It happened to them last year and in the finals Geeldong fell apart. The main reason for them falling apart is that I think their midfield is very slow and in finals that kills you. Expect a repeat of the last two years for Geelong.
Also felt like we tried to "hang on to the lead" after quarter time. That only works for the last 10 minutes, not viable for three quarters! Shouod of kept attacking imo
 

Next Waiting

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Saints vs Eagles tonight could put our own destiny entirely in our own hands if the Eagles win.

I don't see that happening though. The Saints have a much bigger incentive to win (their fate is not in their own hands if they lose) and the Eagles can win or lose and it doesn't affect how their first final will pan out other than their opponent. They finish 5th or 6th depending on result. Top 4 is gone for them.

We could well be waiting till the last game of the final round to know our fate (assuming we win our next 2). Port vs Pies could rate its t*ts off with 3 teams finals aspirations hanging on the result plus home ground advantage for Port. Nice bit of fixture scheduling from HQ.
 

Doggy

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Saints vs Eagles tonight could put our own destiny entirely in our own hands if the Eagles win.

I don't see that happening though. The Saints have a much bigger incentive to win (their fate is not in their own hands if they lose) and the Eagles can win or lose and it doesn't affect how their first final will pan out other than their opponent. They finish 5th or 6th depending on result. Top 4 is gone for them.

We could well be waiting till the last game of the final round to know our fate (assuming we win our next 2). Port vs Pies could rate its t*ts off with 3 teams finals aspirations hanging on the result plus home ground advantage for Port. Nice bit of fixture scheduling from HQ.
Top 4 is not gone for wet toast yet
 

MYOB

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Saints vs Eagles tonight could put our own destiny entirely in our own hands if the Eagles win.

I don't see that happening though. The Saints have a much bigger incentive to win (their fate is not in their own hands if they lose) and the Eagles can win or lose and it doesn't affect how their first final will pan out other than their opponent. They finish 5th or 6th depending on result. Top 4 is gone for them.

We could well be waiting till the last game of the final round to know our fate (assuming we win our next 2). Port vs Pies could rate its t*ts off with 3 teams finals aspirations hanging on the result plus home ground advantage for Port. Nice bit of fixture scheduling from HQ.
Not sure how you could say Top 4 is gone for Eagles. Win tonight and they are 4th
 

bullish23

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Assume we win both. To definitely play finals we need only one of the following to happen;
1) both GWS and STK lose in rd 17
2) Pies lose to Port in rd 18
3) GWS lose to STK in rd 18
 

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bobs head soup

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Or overtake GWS percentage provided we match their number of wins?
That's right. Even if the teams above us win both their remaining matches (GWS beat Saints) and we win both, we will still be in the 8, as long as we win our 2 games by a combined 10 points more than GWS.

Given we play after GWS in R18, our future is essentially in our control now.

Dream result would be to knock them out by 0.1%.
 

MYOB

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Assume we win both. To definitely play finals we need only one of the following to happen;
1) both GWS and STK lose in rd 17
2) Pies lose to Port in rd 18
3) GWS lose to STK in rd 18
We don't need GWS and STK both to lose in Round 17. We only need one of them to lose in Round 17
 

bullish23

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We don't need GWS and STK both to lose in Round 17. We only need one of them to lose in Round 17
we don’t absolutely need them both to lose because we can rely on other ways as I mentioned.

But IF they do both lose, then we will take one of their spots guaranteed as they play each other in the final round (and as long as we win.) That’s my point.
 

MYOB

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we don’t absolutely need them both to lose because we can rely on other ways as I mentioned.

But IF they do both lose, then we will take one of their spots guaranteed as they play each other in the final round (and as long as we win.) That’s my point.
No, we don't need both them to lose in Round 17. If one of them lose in Round 17, and we win both of our games, we are in, regardless of any other result in any other game.
 

ossie_21

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This smart person remains correct :)

Have a read of this whole thing and then pay respects to TD69 the G.O.A.T
 

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