Universal Love Welcome: Jordan Dawson officially traded to Adelaide

Who's your favourite non-David Noble club to trade with?


  • Total voters
    76
  • Poll closed .

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Sanders

Horne of plenty
Nov 1, 2012
32,261
46,897
AFL Club
Adelaide
Tim Kelly was coming off a season he received 25 votes in the Brownlow medal, Jeremy Cameron is a 2-time All Australian and Coleman Medal winner, to think Dawson is worth as much as them just because he's the best available is silly.

On the flipside, we said "Dawson is similar to Ed Langdon, both in age, style and statistically". Demons paid out 22, 79 and a future second-round selection and got 26 and a future 4th rounder back. So basically cost it cost Melbourne a slight downgrade and a 2nd round pick to get Langdon, who is rated at a similar level to Dawson, so Sydney should be pretty happy with getting a 1st rounder in return for him, let alone complaining they should have gotten pick 4 if we were trading fairly.
there is clear blue water between what Kelly et al got, and Sydney got, such there was a big, big landing strip (conceptually anyway) for Sydney to drop in the middle. Problem is, they misread different situations as a trend

and can we stop with the Langdon thing. He’s not a very interesting player, and shouldn’t really feature in our thinking
 

Crow till I die

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 6, 2017
15,782
17,448
AFL Club
Adelaide
I’m starting to understand why Sydney were so pissed about only getting Melbourne’s first.

they’re wrong. But the logic is starting to make more sense

they thought uncontracted players like Tim Kelly and Jeremy Cameron had set a new standard, reset market value for uncontracted players.

at the respective time both teams were reasonably successful and were therefore out of reach for a PSD manoeuvre

so on that basis, they have assumed that this is the new market value for uncontracted players and the only reason they aren’t getting some of the new super premium trade value is our lowly ladder position

I think there’s 2 problems with this:
1. This is what the PSD is for, and our ability to use it legitimately forms part of Dawson’s value

2: that the Tim Kelly & Jeremy Cameron trades were for a much higher calibre player, and were unique in their circumstances

but having seen Kelly go for 14, 24, 37 & a future first, I can see why their eyes must have lit up

problem is they misread the room and refuse to accept their misreading of the marketplace is down to their wide eyed greed, rather than a structural break down of the system
I think that your point 2 is not really in play either had Geelong or WCE had the PSD threat on their side from a low ladder finish...meaning if you have that threat there it really does not matter how good a player leaving is, it will always end up for unders. Every club is looking out for itself and no club wants to part with multiple 1st rounders if it does not absolutely have to is my thought
 

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Maddogmetro

Club Legend
Apr 19, 2016
2,871
3,868
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Amazingly, I can, I have no idea what it is

i‘ve been watching smurfball for 40 years and never heard of it.

i‘m also not interested in finding out what it is, because I suspect it’s another thing dreamed up by the brains trust that keeps Luke Darcy ”informed”

all well done Sanders, I knew you’d find a bandwagon to jump on
So because it hasn't been widely used before, it shouldn't be used in the future? What backwards thinking.

I'm not saying it's a perfect statistic, but advanced statistics have drastically changed the way sports are viewed and played, where analysis goes further than the 'eye test', or some other measure that doesn't necessarily correlate to success.

I think keeping an open mind about its use is the best way forward. Time will tell whether it is a reliable indicator of a damaging player and a successful team.
 

Deaneus!

We Await Silent Tristero's Empire
Nov 24, 2007
25,839
54,529
DTC Frat House
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Team Lambda Variant
So because it hasn't been widely used before, it shouldn't be used in the future? What backwards thinking.

I'm not saying it's a perfect statistic, but advanced statistics have drastically changed the way sports are viewed and played, where analysis goes further than the 'eye test', or some other measure that doesn't necessarily correlate to success.

I think keeping an open mind about its use is the best way forward. Time will tell whether it is a reliable indicator of a damaging player and a successful team.
well done on asserting something I didn’t say, great work
 

Maddogmetro

Club Legend
Apr 19, 2016
2,871
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well done on asserting something I didn’t say, great work
'I've been watching for 40 years and never heard of it.'

'I'm not interested in finding out what it is.'

I paraphrased, but what I said reflects your comments. To suggest otherwise shows that you are not interested in a genuine discussion, just a petty argument about nothing.
 

baldandbroke

AFKA-OOTC
Oct 17, 2020
861
2,040
Hobart
AFL Club
Adelaide
Want to see where stats are heading for AFL? Watch some US sports.

Baseball and Ice Hockey have some rippers that sometimes only apply to the person they are talking about. It’s great IMO.
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Suspended
Jun 7, 2011
45,595
46,483
Mount Gambier
AFL Club
Adelaide
Down the bottom of the graph

"Chain points is points scored from chains of possession beginning with the intercept mark."

So it in effect measures how many of your intercept marks end up with your side keeping possession and scoring. It suggests Dawson takes intercept marks in dangerous positions rather than say full-back, and he then is able to use the ball well such that it leads to scores (rather than say bombing it from half back, which the graph suggests Brodie Smith might be guilty of doing)
Or that Sydney are a better side and maintain possession leading to scores better.
 

Dangarman

Team Captain
Apr 29, 2010
526
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Or that Sydney are a better side and maintain possession leading to scores better.
Yes, that's my take on it. No amount of intercept marks will win the game if the team keeps breaking down across half forward.

That's why ROB, Dood, Butts and Smith are well down that list IMO.

I think what this stat really needs to be a meaningful player comparison is to be divided by the total team scoring events. It then becomes 'Percentage of team scoring events resulting from intercept mark by player" rather than 'chain points scored'. That way it doesn't mean the player taking the final shot at goal affects the stat. But maybe it should, because if the play from the intercept mark puts the goal shooter in a better position he should get the credit...

Nah, I'm with Vader. BS stat. There's too many other influencing variables to attribute a high ranking in this stat to player skill.
 
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Carmo

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 15, 2011
5,045
4,191
SA
AFL Club
Adelaide
Adelaide 10 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 9 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 8 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 7 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 6 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 5 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 4 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 3 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 2 years ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide 1 year ago: The trading system skews in favour of the teams recieving players, can you do something to even it up?
AFL:
Adelaide this year (to self): Yay, we got a player for a heaps good deal since the AFL wont fix up the system to stop it skewing in favour of recipient teams!!
AFL: <Bigfooty, insert what happens next here>
 

Sanders

Horne of plenty
Nov 1, 2012
32,261
46,897
AFL Club
Adelaide
I think that your point 2 is not really in play either had Geelong or WCE had the PSD threat on their side from a low ladder finish...meaning if you have that threat there it really does not matter how good a player leaving is, it will always end up for unders. Every club is looking out for itself and no club wants to part with multiple 1st rounders if it does not absolutely have to is my thought
that’s the whole point I’m speculating on

that without the psd threat they thought those were the fair values. Therefore the PSD is what stopped them getting much more

I don’t think they’re right but that’s why they were so miffed
 

Caputo

Team Captain
Dec 5, 2011
479
218
AFL Club
Adelaide
I am thinking that there can be multiple truths at the same time

Dawson was best or second in the Trade period as Sydney contended.
The price of wingmen are cheap as the Langdon trade by Melbourne
Sydney felt blindside and were too emotional
The PSD threat is real and there are not many PSD cards each year. It is the Nuclear option.
Sydney players had been on the road a long time
Nice to be courted
 

Soggy2112

Club Legend
Aug 6, 2021
1,457
2,321
AFL Club
Adelaide
People just really like Moneyball and want to apply it to their favourite sport.
I’m a big fan of analytics and stats when used properly, but I’m not sure that I needed to see chain intercept marks to scores to know that Dawson is at the moment a more damaging player then Smith.
 

StonesThrow

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 21, 2008
10,318
11,411
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
I'd like to see a 'most chain points from a d50 tackle when opposition has <30 point lead' stat. I think this could show what a huge loss Jake Kelly will be.
 

Mr_Moogle

Brownlow Medallist
May 29, 2011
18,350
28,046
SA
AFL Club
Adelaide
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Sturt
people don’t understand the first thing about Moneyball

most doofus’ still think it’s about stats or buying failed players
I didn't think the film was hard to understand but if people want apply it to the AFL, they aren't really considering the unequal nature of MLB as compared to the AFL.
 

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