Universal Love Welcome: Jordan Dawson officially traded to Adelaide

Who's your favourite non-David Noble club to trade with?


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Sanders

Horne of plenty
Nov 1, 2012
32,255
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I didn't think the film was hard to understand but if people want apply it to the AFL, they aren't really considering the unequal nature of MLB as compared to the AFL.
the film is an abridged version of the book

the book is an abridged version of the work of pioneering behavioural psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahnemann. Incidentally the only psychologists ever to win the Nobel prize for economics.

and it has fu** all to do with stats
 

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Mr_Moogle

Brownlow Medallist
May 29, 2011
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OK. You’ve studied the film, what do you think it’s all about?

and why can’t it apply to AFL?
I haven't "studied" the film but I remember Beane's motivation to use analytics to find bargains essentially revolved around not having enough money to compete with the payroll of larger, more well resourced sides. How would that angle play out in the AFL where they have a salary cap?
 

Sanders

Horne of plenty
Nov 1, 2012
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I haven't "studied" the film but I remember Beane's motivation to use analytics to find bargains essentially revolved around not having enough money to compete with the payroll of larger, more well resourced sides. How would that angle play out in the AFL where they have a salary cap?
all businesses try to find an edge, now the most analytical team in MLB is the LA Dodgers who have the highest annual payroll at $260m too

the question is why that edge exists, and is it available to the very richest like the Dodgers

the edge changes and is just as available to the rich as the poor

that edge is mispricing of the market, and that comes from unconscious bias. And prospect theory

the most interesting example right now is the trend towards NFL teams going for it on 4th downs

and it certainly is available to every business from AFL to the corner delicatessen
 

AFC979810

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 5, 2009
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all businesses try to find an edge, now the most analytical team in MLB is the LA Dodgers who have the highest annual payroll at $260m too

the question is why that edge exists, and is it available to the very richest like the Dodgers

the edge changes and is just as available to the rich as the poor

that edge is mispricing of the market, and that comes from unconscious bias. And prospect theory

the most interesting example right now is the trend towards NFL teams going for it on 4th downs


and it certainly is available to every business from AFL to the corner delicatessen
Kevin Kelley likes this comment.
 

1970crow

Hall of Famer
Suspended
Jun 7, 2011
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People just really like Moneyball and want to apply it to their favourite sport.
aussie rules is the least applicable sport to moneyball that I know. Works for sports that are a collective of individual actions or sports where a single piece of individual brilliance, ie low scoring sports, has huge weighting to outcome. Aussie rules is neither of these.
 

1970crow

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possibly - but even then - Dawson was key to it
sure, but Dawson is only key as he was the person that caused the stat to exist in the first place by taking the intercept mark. From there it doesn't really say much qualitative about him as opposed to the rest in the chain individually or Sydney as a team in terms of how often they scored or inside 50 conversion rates etc.
 

1970crow

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I'd like to see a 'most chain points from a d50 tackle when opposition has <30 point lead' stat. I think this could show what a huge loss Jake Kelly will be.
given that we were near bottom in the league for gross scores, I think that no matter how good JK was in executing an effective disposal post tackle induced turnover. To be meaningful, the first comparison is % of score conversion from Dawson's intercept marks against the entire team from all turnovers. Or if you're doing intercept marks, there shouldn't be a qualifying requirement. His chain points per intercept mark could be worse than everyone else in the side except those that average more than the qualifying number.

On its own, with a qualifying requirement, it's a meaningless stat.
 

Sanders

Horne of plenty
Nov 1, 2012
32,255
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aussie rules is the least applicable sport to moneyball that I know. Works for sports that are a collective of individual actions or sports where a single piece of individual brilliance, ie low scoring sports, has huge weighting to outcome. Aussie rules is neither of these.
no. There’s just as much irrationality in AFL as any sport
 

StonesThrow

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 21, 2008
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Inside mid according to 9 news tonight? I only caught the end of it so not 100% sure. Nicksy was being interviewed on the way into HJ's
Not really. Nicks said he can play inside and outside and that Dawson sees himself playing more midfield long term. Nicks ended it by saying his weapons are best used as an outside player.

So sounds like there will be midfield time but likely a forward/wing or half back imo. We'll see.
 

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Kane McGoodwin

TheBrownDog
May 21, 2001
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Not really. Nicks said he can play inside and outside and that Dawson sees himself playing more midfield long term. Nicks ended it by saying his weapons are best used as an outside player.

So sounds like there will be midfield time but likely a forward/wing or half back imo. We'll see.
Would be good to develop a few of our midfielders to switch between inside/outside midfielders to give us more flexibility down the track.

Obviously not Crouch.
 

rabidcrow

All Australian
Sep 3, 2018
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We need to cut our losses with Crouch, sadly.
crouch is a 26 yr old AA player and beat and fairest winner. The last part of 2020 (8 rounds) he was one of the best mids in the comp
Assuming he gets over this injury could easily be playing for 6-7 more years - so highly unlikely we would be cutting our losses



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Pugsley

TheBrownDog
May 19, 2014
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crouch is a 26 yr old AA player and beat and fairest winner. The last part of 2020 (8 rounds) he was one of the best mids in the comp
Assuming he gets over this injury could easily be playing for 6-7 more years - so highly unlikely we would be cutting our losses



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With ongiing groin issues.
 

Geoffa32

TheBrownDog
Aug 17, 2007
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I think two preseasons with Burgess will make or break Crouch.

Hopefully he start playing early this season, break into the AFL team by midway.

Then 2023 be up and running full flight.



I do wonder if he and Laird can operate in the same midfield. Maybe Laird can become more attacking with Crouch the accumulator.

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MRB37

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May 17, 2009
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Would be good to develop a few of our midfielders to switch between inside/outside midfielders to give us more flexibility down the track.

Obviously not Crouch.
I definitely think Schoenberg could be that sort of mid. Not so sure about Pedlar and Berry at this stage, Pedlar in particular from what I saw of him in the SANFL is like a young Dangerfield in how he tries to just bulldoze through everything in his way inside.
 

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