Universal Love Welcome: Jordan Dawson officially traded to Adelaide

Who's your favourite non-David Noble club to trade with?


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Vader

Sith Lord
Oct 14, 2005
47,612
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I don't see a reason why Milera won't, Crouch too for that matter.

Its just that Matt's style is less important in this day and age.
Milera's current knee injury is of a type which is usually career ending. His best case scenario seems to be returning as a shadow of his former self.

Crouch's injury, on the other hand, is frustrating but shouldn't be career terminal.

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Vader

Sith Lord
Oct 14, 2005
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Like who though?
A quick Google search only comes up with 2 other AFL players with this injury - Jaeger O'Meara and Jarrod Pickett.

Pickett played 17 games for Carlton in 2017-18, before getting injured. He never played again, and was delisted at the end of 2019.
O'Meara did return from the injury, but was never more than a shadow of the player he was prior to injury.

Thankfully, the ruptured patella tendon is a rare injury.
 

Drewie11

Premium Platinum
Oct 15, 2015
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A quick Google search only comes up with 2 other AFL players with this injury - Jaeger O'Meara and Jarrod Pickett.

Pickett played 17 games for Carlton in 2017-18, before getting injured. He never played again, and was delisted at the end of 2019.
O'Meara did return from the injury, but was never more than a shadow of the player he was prior to injury.

Thankfully, the ruptured patella tendon is a rare injury.
Fingers crossed he comes back with no issues. Pickett was a bust and Omeara is still playing so really it’s not a career ending injury as you mentioned
 

Vader

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Fingers crossed he comes back with no issues. Pickett was a bust and Omeara is still playing so really it’s not a career ending injury as you mentioned
As I said before - best case is that he returns as a shadow of his former self. It remains highly likely that he's never able to return (to playing at the AFL level).
 

Big Dub

Senior List
Feb 8, 2018
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A quick Google search only comes up with 2 other AFL players with this injury - Jaeger O'Meara and Jarrod Pickett.

Pickett played 17 games for Carlton in 2017-18, before getting injured. He never played again, and was delisted at the end of 2019.
O'Meara did return from the injury, but was never more than a shadow of the player he was prior to injury.

Thankfully, the ruptured patella tendon is a rare injury.
3 in 4 chance he returns to play. I'd say he is somewhere between the soccer player and basketballer, so this coming season not great but may return to norm in 2023 (if he's more on the soccer end of things) or by 2025 (more on the basketball end):
Seventy-nine (76.7%) professional athletes successfully RTP. American football athletes had the lowest RTP rate and the largest drop in performance in post-operative season 1 (P < 0.001). These athletes also experienced the shortest adjusted career lengths (P = 0.003) compared to players in the other sports. Basketball athletes played significantly less games through post-operative seasons 1 to 3 (P < 0.05). Soccer athletes had less goals and assists per game and played fewer games (P < 0.05) in post-operative season 1 that recovered to baseline by seasons 2 and 3.


Another study here, with better results but less professional sports people:
.
 

Vader

Sith Lord
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3 in 4 chance he returns to play. I'd say he is somewhere between the soccer player and basketballer, so this coming season not great but may return to norm in 2023 (if he's more on the soccer end of things) or by 2025 (more on the basketball end):
Seventy-nine (76.7%) professional athletes successfully RTP. American football athletes had the lowest RTP rate and the largest drop in performance in post-operative season 1 (P < 0.001). These athletes also experienced the shortest adjusted career lengths (P = 0.003) compared to players in the other sports. Basketball athletes played significantly less games through post-operative seasons 1 to 3 (P < 0.05). Soccer athletes had less goals and assists per game and played fewer games (P < 0.05) in post-operative season 1 that recovered to baseline by seasons 2 and 3.


Another study here, with better results but less professional sports people:
.
It's one thing to be able to "return to play", it's entirely another to be performing at pre-injury levels.

70% of Pickett wasn't an AFL player.
70% of O'Meara was, but he was no longer the force he was originally.
70% of Milera will be ???
 

Big Dub

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It's one thing to be able to "return to play", it's entirely another to be performing at pre-injury levels.

70% of Pickett wasn't an AFL player.
70% of O'Meara was, but he was no longer the force he was originally.
70% of Milera will be ???
It's not that the athletes return at 77%, it's that 77% of athletes successfully return. Those that do return in soccer and basketball return to norm, just not in the first year.

O'Meara averaged between 21 and 22 disposals in 2013 and 2014. 2015 and 2016 were wiped with 2 different types of knee injuries. In 2017 he was back to between 21 and 22 disposals per game, but with knee issues and a broken hand limiting him to just 6 games.

Since then:
2018 - 24.0 (Hawks top 5)
2019 - 25.8 (Hawks top 3)
2020 (reduced) - 20.8 (Hawks top 10)
2021 - 26.2 (Hawks top 3)

Milera averaged 18.8 disposals over 2018 and 2019. Based on these studies and the O'Meara example, this will drop in 2022 and he may miss plenty of games with knee soreness. In 2023 he possibly averages 21 disposals, which he might build up to 23 disposals over the next few years. Or maybe Nicks' game style suits him, and he does better.

Or maybe he never plays again, like 23% of professional sports people.
 

Jcpdragonx

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Sep 19, 2010
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It's not that the athletes return at 77%, it's that 77% of athletes successfully return. Those that do return in soccer and basketball return to norm, just not in the first year.

O'Meara averaged between 21 and 22 disposals in 2013 and 2014. 2015 and 2016 were wiped with 2 different types of knee injuries. In 2017 he was back to between 21 and 22 disposals per game, but with knee issues and a broken hand limiting him to just 6 games.

Since then:
2018 - 24.0 (Hawks top 5)
2019 - 25.8 (Hawks top 3)
2020 (reduced) - 20.8 (Hawks top 10)
2021 - 26.2 (Hawks top 3)

Milera averaged 18.8 disposals over 2018 and 2019. Based on these studies and the O'Meara example, this will drop in 2022 and he may miss plenty of games with knee soreness. In 2023 he possibly averages 21 disposals, which he might build up to 23 disposals over the next few years. Or maybe Nicks' game style suits him, and he does better.

Or maybe he never plays again, like 23% of professional sports people.
I don't think you can measure the impact of O'Meara's injury using common stats like disposals. Looking back at draft profiles, he was listed has having elite speed and explosive like Judd. That is now a distant memory. His first year was probably better than Walsh's first year.

He's done well to get back on the park, missed a lot of football and when he returned to playing, missed a fair few games in between. The injury ruined him, he's a B grade mid now.
 

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Vader

Sith Lord
Oct 14, 2005
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It's not that the athletes return at 77%, it's that 77% of athletes successfully return. Those that do return in soccer and basketball return to norm, just not in the first year.

O'Meara averaged between 21 and 22 disposals in 2013 and 2014. 2015 and 2016 were wiped with 2 different types of knee injuries. In 2017 he was back to between 21 and 22 disposals per game, but with knee issues and a broken hand limiting him to just 6 games.

Since then:
2018 - 24.0 (Hawks top 5)
2019 - 25.8 (Hawks top 3)
2020 (reduced) - 20.8 (Hawks top 10)
2021 - 26.2 (Hawks top 3)

Milera averaged 18.8 disposals over 2018 and 2019. Based on these studies and the O'Meara example, this will drop in 2022 and he may miss plenty of games with knee soreness. In 2023 he possibly averages 21 disposals, which he might build up to 23 disposals over the next few years. Or maybe Nicks' game style suits him, and he does better.

Or maybe he never plays again, like 23% of professional sports people.
I appreciate that 70% of athletes return.

What you're not appreciating is that those who do rarely return to the level they previously achieved - they're typically at around 70% of their previous level.
 

Big Dub

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Feb 8, 2018
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I appreciate that 70% of athletes return.

What you're not appreciating is that those who do rarely return to the level they previously achieved - they're typically at around 70% of their previous level.
How about I meet you half way. I agree that O'Meara is not the player that I thought that he was going to be pre-injury. But O'Meara may not be a best guide for the expected outcome for Milera.

For starters, O'Meara's had a few injuries and he already had chronic knee issues before the rupture. He was also one of the mini-draft 4, all of whom have had injury issues and have underperformed to expectations. They may simply have been in a modern professional environment too soon. He's also an inside leaning midfielder and the stresses put on his knees may more resemble NFL players rather than soccer/ basketball players. Per the studies, NFL players were not as good when they returned, whereas soccer/ basketball players were.

As an evasive mid, I think that the stresses put on Milera's knees may more resemble soccer/ basketball players rather than NFL players.

One complicating issue is that the studies also don't seem to account specifically for young players still on their way up. That is, do they return to their pre-injury trajectory, or just back to where they were pre-injury, or to somewhere in the middle? O'Meara seems to be somewhere in the middle, but there are plenty of factors involved.

So, while Milera may never play again (which is an option still in pay), he should get back to pre-injury levels if he does. But whether he will get back to pre-injury trajectory, who knows?
 

Big Dub

Senior List
Feb 8, 2018
289
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I don't think you can measure the impact of O'Meara's injury using common stats like disposals. Looking back at draft profiles, he was listed has having elite speed and explosive like Judd. That is now a distant memory. His first year was probably better than Walsh's first year.

He's done well to get back on the park, missed a lot of football and when he returned to playing, missed a fair few games in between. The injury ruined him, he's a B grade mid now.
Noted, but I had to use something, so I went with the objective criteria of disposals and placings in b&f's. See also my response to Vader.
 

ftmch

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Aug 15, 2009
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A quick Google search only comes up with 2 other AFL players with this injury - Jaeger O'Meara and Jarrod Pickett.

Pickett played 17 games for Carlton in 2017-18, before getting injured. He never played again, and was delisted at the end of 2019.
O'Meara did return from the injury, but was never more than a shadow of the player he was prior to injury.

Thankfully, the ruptured patella tendon is a rare injury.
That's a pretty big statement when the supporting evidence comes from a Google search returning a sample size of 2.
 

Sanders

Horne of plenty
Nov 1, 2012
32,260
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The first round is often so obvious, even media commentators can pick out the top picks with a reasonable hit rate. It becomes a crap shoot when you're all the way down the order. It seems logical to me why the club might lean harder on their analytics team with later picks.
I’m saying it is not true, not that it might not be true

the error is in the assumption about early picks, clubs have access to data that we don’t. That data helps inform all their decisions
 

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