Milera's current knee injury is of a type which is usually career ending. His best case scenario seems to be returning as a shadow of his former self.
There are very few players who have made a successful comeback from this type of knee injury. It's worse than doing a PCL.
A quick Google search only comes up with 2 other AFL players with this injury - Jaeger O'Meara and Jarrod Pickett.
As I said before - best case is that he returns as a shadow of his former self. It remains highly likely that he's never able to return (to playing at the AFL level).
Best case, he returns at about 70% of his previous level.
3 in 4 chance he returns to play. I'd say he is somewhere between the soccer player and basketballer, so this coming season not great but may return to norm in 2023 (if he's more on the soccer end of things) or by 2025 (more on the basketball end):
It's one thing to be able to "return to play", it's entirely another to be performing at pre-injury levels.3 in 4 chance he returns to play. I'd say he is somewhere between the soccer player and basketballer, so this coming season not great but may return to norm in 2023 (if he's more on the soccer end of things) or by 2025 (more on the basketball end):
Seventy-nine (76.7%) professional athletes successfully RTP. American football athletes had the lowest RTP rate and the largest drop in performance in post-operative season 1 (P < 0.001). These athletes also experienced the shortest adjusted career lengths (P = 0.003) compared to players in the other sports. Basketball athletes played significantly less games through post-operative seasons 1 to 3 (P < 0.05). Soccer athletes had less goals and assists per game and played fewer games (P < 0.05) in post-operative season 1 that recovered to baseline by seasons 2 and 3.
Performance-based outcomes following patellar tendon repair in professional athletes
Objectives: There are limited data on the impact of a patellar tendon repair to a professional athlete’s career. The purpose of this study was to determine differences return to play (RTP) rate, ca...www.tandfonline.com
Another study here, with better results but less professional sports people:
.Return to sport after early surgical repair of acute patellar tendon ruptures
Patellar tendon ruptures make up about 5% of all extensor mechanism injuries. They mainly occur in young, athletic men who have contributing risk fact…www.sciencedirect.com
It's not that the athletes return at 77%, it's that 77% of athletes successfully return. Those that do return in soccer and basketball return to norm, just not in the first year.
I appreciate that 70% of athletes return.
How about I meet you half way. I agree that O'Meara is not the player that I thought that he was going to be pre-injury. But O'Meara may not be a best guide for the expected outcome for Milera.
Noted, but I had to use something, so I went with the objective criteria of disposals and placings in b&f's. See also my response to Vader.
That's a pretty big statement when the supporting evidence comes from a Google search returning a sample size of 2.
It's Vader.
A good player but not elite because he has had to change his game
There are other cases mentioned online, from other sports. Just not many from the AFL.
