Toast Welcome Ollie Lord - Pick #49 2020 National Draft

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Ford Fairlane

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Knightmare last year rated Port's draft a C+.
This is his review of Georgiades.

Port Adelaide's second selection, Mitch Georgiades while athletic and a strong mark was among the highest risk and most questionable. Georgiades is an undersized key forward at 191cm who missed the season due to injury and averaged less than one goal per game in the 2018 Under-18 Championships which makes him more a very speculative choice so early on.

Sound familiar? ;)
 

VineValerian

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It makes a difference.

The older kids get more opportunities and development as a result of being older and better at any given time.

More of them get picked.

The younger kids are less developed, get picked less and theoretically have more scope for improvement.

The question is whether these younger kids come on of given the opportunity of whether that earlier lack of development always hinders them.

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Each case differs. Depends on the individual's make-up, mental strength, resilience, desire to achieve, etc.
Only time tells in most cases.
 

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longdonkey

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No matter what happens to him he's been taken late. I'd sooner him be an excellent player and if he goes, well he goes and we get back picks. I'd prefer that than delisting him in 2 years time.
He's only just walked through the door, lets not start talking about him going home.
 

Enviable Tradition

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This was the lead in hypothesis to Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.

The extra ~6 months of physical and mental development that kids born in the front half of the year have create a knock on effect with their self confidence right from the beginning.
I couldn't remember the title.

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Enviable Tradition

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Janus

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The old school methodology of talent scouting was to judge players on output. The new school is to judge players on whether their traits will translate to AFL level...bearing in mind that a key forward only has a limited window to impress in the underage system, so unless they are a phenom that is going to go in the first few picks most of them are going to look raw as fu**. With Lord you're looking at some great material to work with that we could turn into an elite key forward. Yeah, you'd rather have the finished work that just needs firing in the kiln like Ugle-Hagan, but for pick 49 it's worth the punt.

The last key position player we took around that area we turned into a first round pick (Howard).
 

RussellEbertHandball

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It makes a difference.

The older kids get more opportunities and development as a result of being older and better at any given time.

More of them get picked.

The younger kids are less developed, get picked less and theoretically have more scope for improvement.

The question is whether these younger kids come on of given the opportunity of whether that earlier lack of development always hinders them.

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IMO it has had very little influence in the AFL draft until recently.

As more money is ploughed into the TAC Cup / NAB league in Victoria and under 18 programs in WA and SA as well as the academies elsewhere in Oz, as well as the U/16 level, it has started to mean something more.

In the NHL it has been a thing for decades. 30 years ago when I lived in Canada it was talked about, mainly because junior hockey leagues in Canada produced about 70% of NHL players and the majority of that 70% of players came from junior leagues in the southern Ontario area or Golden Horseshoe area. That has changed a bit as more players come from Europe and Canada is now producing 50%~55% of all NHL players.

Malcolm Gladwell starts his book Outliers talking about this. I used have access to a free online copy of the book but not anymore. This is a paragraph from the book's wiki page.


The book begins with the observation that a disproportionate number of elite Canadian hockey players are born in the earlier months of the calendar year. The reason behind this is that since youth hockey leagues determine eligibility by the calendar year, children born on January 1 play in the same league as those born on December 31 in the same year. Because children born earlier in the year are statistically larger and more physically mature than their younger competitors, and they are often identified as better athletes, this leads to extra coaching and a higher likelihood of being selected for elite hockey leagues. This phenomenon in which "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer" is dubbed "accumulative advantage" by Gladwell, while sociologist Robert K. Merton calls it "the Matthew Effect", named after a biblical verse in the Gospel of Matthew: "For unto everyone that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance. But from him, that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath."[8] Outliers asserts that success depends on the idiosyncrasies of the selection process used to identify talent just as much as it does on the athletes' natural abilities
 

Power freak 2008

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I enjoyed the post but how does this relate to young Lord?? Don't trust the fitness staff to bulk him up?
I believe that they fitness staff is now putting more emphasis on weight training. Burgess believed strength training in first year recruits can lead to injuries. My guess is now that some of Burgos ideas remain but mature bodies and 2nd to third year players begin strength training.
I do trust this fitness staff and I'd think Burgo would also learn from his mistakes
 

RussellEbertHandball

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I believe that they fitness staff is now putting more emphasis on weight training. Burgess believed strength training in first year recruits can lead to injuries. My guess is now that some of Burgos ideas remain but mature bodies and 2nd to third year players begin strength training.
I do trust this fitness staff and I'd think Burgo would also learn from his mistakes
Mackers was our strength and conditioning coach when he started, that's what he did his PHD on, and I have posted a few videos and podcasts where he is talking to other strength and conditioning coaches around the world, since he took over from Burgo, in the Ian Mckeown Head of high performance thread.

So it makes sense he has beefed up this part of our fitness regime compared to Burgo.
 

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Power freak 2008

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Mackers was our strength and conditioning coach when he started, that's what he did his PHD on, and I have posted a few videos and podcasts where he is talking to other strength and conditioning coaches around the world, since he took over from Burgo, in the Ian Mckeown Head of high performance thread.

So it makes sense he has beefed up this part of our fitness regime compared to Burgo.
I saw a few posters disparaging Burgess so I wanted to talk about the contribution I believe he has made to the culture and professionalism of the fitness department.
 

AFC AFeederClub

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his marking is why we would have drafted him, he has great visual judgement in the air which is really hard to teach, he's happy to crash the pack which is really hard to find players with that natural tendency and you can see that in 3 years time he's gonna be a big boy. Upside is Josh Kennedy down side is a Damon White. who knows but id like to see him in the maggies and by this time next year we should get the feel of if he's gonna make it or not.
 

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