Ultimate Glory Welcome to Hawthorn, Jaeger O'Meara

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Abasi

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Dear oh dear Gralin. You aren't seriously suggesting where we finish this year has no bearing on what we paid for JOM are you?

We gave up this year's pick for St.Kilda's pick 10 which was was handed directly to GC for JOM. That we didn't know the value of what we were giving up at the time is ultimately irrelevant to its eventual value.
Certainly you can argue it was a calculated gamble in which some measure of leeway was expected, you can even suggest we had absolutely no way of knowing we'd be giving up such a valuable pick, but you absolutely cannot claim the eventual price will be irrelevant to future gauging of the trade's success of failure.


Otherwise, we may as well trade next year's 1st rounder for Tom Rockliff. Where we finish next year would be irrelevant to the value of the pick we'd be handing over according to your logic, so it'd be a perfectly acceptable trade if we happened to win the wooden spoon & give them pick 1 right? :rolleyes:
Graham Wright trades a future first rounder. That's that.
Where that 1st rounder lands has no bearing on the HFC from the moment it leaves our hands, so I am with Gralin.

The only people who will revisit it are the *******s in the media(barrret and Ralph)and on bigfooty, with all their beautiful and pointless hindsight that means nothing. The deal will be long done and will be a success on the back of what JOM has done by the time he retires, not where we finish in 2017.


And this trade deal was never due for review in June/July or even August of 2017. Much like the Burgoyne trade, this deal was about the long term.
 

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Mr Lizard

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The club definitely said it was bone bruising to his good knee on at least a couple of occasions. I recall comments along the lines of "the good thing is, it's his other knee". I can't be stuffed trying to find the actual interview or recovery report but I know what I heard, as I have repeated it to a number of other people when talking about this god foresaken saga.
I dispute this, I think your recall is faulty.

I could be stuffed, so I trawled this thread for clues (highlight: the now banned Horatio Hartung asking "does anyone else get a stiffy for Jaeger?").

The first news of knee soreness was posted 13/4 (selection for Geelong game), the first posts after that to mention a specific knee:
I do recall him hopping around a pack fighting for a ground ball, trying to keep the weight off the taped knee.

I was a bit concerned when I saw it, but he played on (albeit not very well) so I didn't think too much of it but this is the disappointing outcome from that moment.
It was blantantly obvious he was favouring his knee, I literally watch him like a "hawk". He couldn't break out of semi sprint, he was constantly taking weight off that knee and certainly had the hobbles up.

The club should just come out and say "his knee has flared up, he is on ice for the rest of 2017". We will look the fools but we need this guy to be fit for the next 8-10 years.
the first mention on the club website, Clarkson's presser on the Sunday before the Geelong game:

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2017-04-16/only-minor-for-omeara

"Although it is a knock to the same knee that has been sore previously, we don't think it's anything related so hopefully that will settle down over the next week and he'll play next week."


No intervening posts mention the possibility of it being his good knee. Not conclusive, but it is unbelievable that contrary club reports (made where? papers? tv?) weren't discussed here, or that the club contradicted Clarkson after this.


The club has actually been pretty consistent in how they've spoken about this issue. "We think ..., we're hoping ..., we'll see how it goes."
 

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I dispute this, I think your recall is faulty.

I could be stuffed, so I trawled this thread for clues (highlight: the now banned Horatio Hartung asking "does anyone else get a stiffy for Jaeger?").

The first news of knee soreness was posted 13/4 (selection for Geelong game), the first posts after that to mention a specific knee:



the first mention on the club website, Clarkson's presser on the Sunday before the Geelong game:

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2017-04-16/only-minor-for-omeara

"Although it is a knock to the same knee that has been sore previously, we don't think it's anything related so hopefully that will settle down over the next week and he'll play next week."


No intervening posts mention the possibility of it being his good knee. Not conclusive, but it is unbelievable that contrary club reports (made where? papers? tv?) weren't discussed here, or that the club contradicted Clarkson after this.


The club has actually been pretty consistent in how they've spoken about this issue. "We think ..., we're hoping ..., we'll see how it goes."
Fair call. But I haven't been able to locate all of the Bupa reports. I could be stuffed in the end & tried to have a look. I'm sure at some stage it was Russell who said it was his other knee. Stand to be corrected but a few of us had similar recollections. Semantics really.
 

Mr Lizard

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Semantics really.
Not really.

It's the difference between "the club is lying to us, we are being deceived!" and "I think, but I'm not sure, maybe it was just some random on bigfooty."

The bupa reports section is shonkily maintained, but they're in the news feed:

http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2017-04-11/bupa-recovery-report-round-4
http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2017-04-18/bupa-recovery-report-round-5

No mention of O'Meara after the GC game, no mention of his good knee after the Cats.
 

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I am suggesting that
Once we did the deal for Pick 10 that is what we paid and where we finish has no bearing the Jaeger deal

You can question the trade that got us pick 10, you can question the value of using pick 10 on Jaeger, but suggesting we paid overs based on where we finish this year to me is a waste of time and energy
Except that we traded for pick 10 solely because we needed it to secure JOM - there is other logical reason why we would've done that trade, because even based on the (then) assumption we would finish just in or outside the top 8 this year it was weighed heavily in St.Kilda's favor.

Suggesting the trade for pick 10, which was done because it was necessary to bring JOM to the club, and was directly traded to GC for JOM, should be separated from the JOM deal is obviously out of the question. So, the price we pay for pick 10 therefore becomes a component of the overall price we paid for JOM. Just because we didn't know what the price would be at the time doesn't mean we won't eventually have to pay it - we will be handing St.Kilda our 1st rounder this year for a pick that was sent to GC for JOM, that's a reality which no amount of wishful thinking or fact spinning can change.

By your logic, the amount of interest people pay over the lifetime of a variable-rate home loan is irrelevant because they don't know how interest rates will change when signing the contract. :D
 

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Except that we traded for pick 10 solely because we needed it to secure JOM - there is other logical reason why we would've done that trade, because even based on the (then) assumption we would finish just in or outside the top 8 this year it was weighed heavily in St.Kilda's favor.

Suggesting the trade for pick 10, which was done because it was necessary to bring JOM to the club, and was directly traded to GC for JOM, should be separated from the JOM deal is obviously out of the question. So, the price we pay for pick 10 therefore becomes a component of the overall price we paid for JOM. Just because we didn't know what the price would be at the time doesn't mean we won't eventually have to pay it - we will be handing St.Kilda our 1st rounder this year for a pick that was sent to GC for JOM, that's a reality which no amount of wishful thinking or fact spinning can change.

By your logic, the amount of interest people pay over the lifetime of a variable-rate home loan is irrelevant because they don't know how interest rates will change when signing the contract. :D
you are going straw man big time
variable home loans? seriously

what the pick Saints get isn't set in stone, at this point gold coast look poor for not taking the future first and second

they didn't want that gamble

what people are doing with pick watch is like people that watch stock they didn't buy and moan about missing the boat :D

People are crying about a possible future loss on a player that we have no idea about vs a player that we have who could be better, or not

it really just reminds me of the angst over Burgoyne, Gibson, Frawley and Lake

It happens every year. It's overly reactive. I have no issue with people worrying that Jaeger will not work out, I have no issue with people worrying that we paid overs, but the constant oh this could be pick three we paid too much is crap

we don't know what that pick will be, neither did Wright when he maid the deal, equally we don't know what Jaeger will be

it's way too early to be crying over a draft pick, and even if he doesn't work out there is nothing to say if we had kept the pick that the player we would have picked would have been any better

It's all just hypothetical
 

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Can you just imagine if BigFooty was a thing back in the 90s?

End of 97, we give up a decent amount for a player who just suffered a bad knee reco and was doubtful to play the entire following year.

What happens? He misses all of next year but the club doesn't panic, backs him to eventually come good and avoids the noise.

221 games later, pretty sure Joel Smith paid back the faith.

Patience is a virtue. Reading nonsense into Clarksons' words doesn't help anyone.
 

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So by that reasoning, hypothetically if we trade 2018's 1st rounder for a decent-but-not-amazing player and end up winning next year's spoon it'll be okay because we don't know where we'll finish next year? :rolleyes:

I totally get the concept that there's an element of luck involved in making these decisions, that not all the variables are known beforehand, that gambles on guys like Burgoyne have paid off for the club, but really the lengths some of you are willing to go to excuse what right now has all the appearances of one of the worst trades in AFL history is downright scary. Is it really going to hurt to open the other eye occasionally?
 

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Can you just imagine if BigFooty was a thing back in the 90s?

End of 97, we give up a decent amount for a player who just suffered a bad knee reco and was doubtful to play the entire following year.

What happens? He misses all of next year but the club doesn't panic, backs him to eventually come good and avoids the noise.

221 games later, pretty sure Joel Smith paid back the faith.

Patience is a virtue. Reading nonsense into Clarksons' words doesn't help anyone.
We gave up a pick in the preseason draft for Joel Smith that's practically nothing.
 

Gralin

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So by that reasoning, hypothetically if we trade 2018's 1st rounder for a decent-but-not-amazing player and end up winning next year's spoon it'll be okay because we don't know where we'll finish next year? :rolleyes:

I totally get the concept that there's an element of luck involved in making these decisions, that not all the variables are known beforehand, that gambles on guys like Burgoyne have paid off for the club, but really the lengths some of you are willing to go to excuse what right now has all the appearances of one of the worst trades in AFL history is downright scary. Is it really going to hurt to open the other eye occasionally?
probably doesn't hurt to wait a little longer before calling it one of the worst trades in history either does it
 

SA HAWK

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So by that reasoning, hypothetically if we trade 2018's 1st rounder for a decent-but-not-amazing player and end up winning next year's spoon it'll be okay because we don't know where we'll finish next year? :rolleyes:

I totally get the concept that there's an element of luck involved in making these decisions, that not all the variables are known beforehand, that gambles on guys like Burgoyne have paid off for the club, but really the lengths some of you are willing to go to excuse what right now has all the appearances of one of the worst trades in AFL history is downright scary. Is it really going to hurt to open the other eye occasionally?
We would want an young injury free future star if we were going to trade next years 1st rounder because it looks like being a very high pick at the moment.
 

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So by that reasoning, hypothetically if we trade 2018's 1st rounder for a decent-but-not-amazing player and end up winning next year's spoon it'll be okay because we don't know where we'll finish next year? :rolleyes:

I totally get the concept that there's an element of luck involved in making these decisions, that not all the variables are known beforehand, that gambles on guys like Burgoyne have paid off for the club, but really the lengths some of you are willing to go to excuse what right now has all the appearances of one of the worst trades in AFL history is downright scary. Is it really going to hurt to open the other eye occasionally?
What does decent but not amazing have to do with Jaeger O'Meara ?

I keep using his full name because i swear some of you guys must think jom stands for something else.
 

Gralin

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He said "right now has all the appearances of one of the worst trades in AFL history".
yeah that's still crap
people were saying the same about Burgers when he missed the first 8 rounds, and again at the end of the year when we were out of finals
people where bagging Gibbo when he missed 12 weeks with a hammy

People bagged Hale until the 2012 finals and then again on and off

People bagged Lake for half his first season at least

People were still bagging Frawley end of 2015 when we played him forward

everyone wants to rush to grade the deal

it's the nature of the beast with the media giving draft grades before a player has had a single game at AFL level let alone 50

we get revised drafts based on player performance not club needs

that kind of hysterical, possibly the worst trade ever goes along with the worst quarter or game I've ever seen crap

Go back to 2013-15 and you see plenty of crap calling doom on the Hawks that turned out to be bullshit

give it time is all I am saying, take a chill pill. Have your reservations but articulate them without overly emotive crap
 

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Graham Wright trades a future first rounder. That's that.
Where that 1st rounder lands has no bearing on the HFC from the moment it leaves our hands, so I am with Gralin.

The only people who will revisit it are the *******s in the media(barrret and Ralph)and on bigfooty, with all their beautiful and pointless hindsight that means nothing. The deal will be long done and will be a success on the back of what JOM has done by the time he retires, not where we finish in 2017.


And this trade deal was never due for review in June/July or even August of 2017. Much like the Burgoyne trade, this deal was about the long term.
This is 100% the right attitude to have towards this. And as someone who has studied a fair bit of economics, it's irritating to see people thinking about this the wrong way.

The thing with future picks is that they're uncertain, so you're essentially making a calculation about the expected value of the pick. Retrospectively assigning the pick the value that it ends up being is pointless in deciding whether the decision was correct.

I'l give a little analogy. Say that someone comes along and says "I'll flip a coin, heads I owe you $20, tails you owe me $10." If you've got $10 on you and you're only concerned with making the best choice you can to maximise your money you take this bet every time. If you take the bet and it turns up tails (you lose $10), this does not mean that you were wrong to take the bet. You didn't make a choice to lose $10, you made a choice to win $20 with 50% probability and lose $10 with 50% probability. So the expected result of the bet is +$5, regardless of whether you end up winning or losing, it is the right choice to make that bet. In the same way that it is foolish to say that the bet was bad if you end up flipping tails, it's equally foolish to say that if we finish bottom 3 then the trade for O'Meara is somehow worse than if we finished top 4. Right now, it looks like Hawthorn might be turning up tails (in these very early stages).

So it's easy to say that trading pick 10 + pick 2/3 (hypothetically) plus the second rounders or whatever was bad. However, the expected value of our future pick was nowhere near that high. Think our fall this year was inevitable? The signs of 2016 were obvious? Well then you're revising history. In October last year, Hawthorn were equal 4th in 2017 premiership betting. That's right, according to all information known to the public at the time, Hawthorn were one of the best 4/5 teams going into this season. Add in a bit of variance and it would be more accurate that we gave up pick 10-16 this year in expectation. What the pick actually ends up being has no bearing on whether the trade was good.

TLDR: Whether we finish top 4 or bottom 4 this year doesn't make the trade any better or worse. You judge these decisions based on what the various actors knew at the time and Hawthorn's 2017 pick being as high as it likely will be was very far from the common perception.
 

Bardo State

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yeah that's still crap
people were saying the same about Burgers when he missed the first 8 rounds, and again at the end of the year when we were out of finals
people where bagging Gibbo when he missed 12 weeks with a hammy

People bagged Hale until the 2012 finals and then again on and off

People bagged Lake for half his first season at least

People were still bagging Frawley end of 2015 when we played him forward

everyone wants to rush to grade the deal

it's the nature of the beast with the media giving draft grades before a player has had a single game at AFL level let alone 50

we get revised drafts based on player performance not club needs

that kind of hysterical, possibly the worst trade ever goes along with the worst quarter or game I've ever seen crap

Go back to 2013-15 and you see plenty of crap calling doom on the Hawks that turned out to be bullshit

give it time is all I am saying, take a chill pill. Have your reservations but articulate them without overly emotive crap
The Gunston acquisition is probably the only one of recent times that was seen as a "good deal" right out of the gate. All others had (and many still have) their serious doubters, as you've outlined.
 

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The Gunston acquisition is probably the only one of recent times that was seen as a "good deal" right out of the gate. All others had (and many still have) their serious doubters, as you've outlined.
I've said it before I judge moves by flags

You can't really tell until late or end of career in a lot of cases

you can wonder if we made the right call but you can't know

it's the pretend knowing that shits me

It also shits me when people pre trade are shouting we need Jaeger, but post trade complain about the price

pre trade they think he's going to come out and do a Dangerfield from round one after two years out

post trade when he doesn't they cry blue murder

patience really is a virtue

I don't believe the club is infallible but I do have faith in in Clarko and co to turn things around given time
 

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I've said it before I judge moves by flags

You can't really tell until late or end of career in a lot of cases

you can wonder if we made the right call but you can't know

it's the pretend knowing that shits me

It also shits me when people pre trade are shouting we need Jaeger, but post trade complain about the price

pre trade they think he's going to come out and do a Dangerfield from round one after two years out

post trade when he doesn't they cry blue murder

patience really is a virtue

I don't believe the club is infallible but I do have faith in in Clarko and co to turn things around given time
Hasn't stopped people proclaiming the Tom Mitchell deal a raging success.
 

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So it's easy to say that trading pick 10 + pick 2/3 (hypothetically) plus the second rounders or whatever was bad. However, the expected value of our future pick was nowhere near that high. Think our fall this year was inevitable? The signs of 2016 were obvious? Well then you're revising history. In October last year, Hawthorn were equal 4th in 2017 premiership betting. That's right, according to all information known to the public at the time, Hawthorn were one of the best 4/5 teams going into this season. Add in a bit of variance and it would be more accurate that we gave up pick 10-16 this year in expectation. What the pick actually ends up being has no bearing on whether the trade was good.
Were those odds before or after we traded out Lewis & Mitchell?

I know a few of the "experts" didn't tip us to make the 8 just before the season started.
 

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I've said it before I judge moves by flags

You can't really tell until late or end of career in a lot of cases

you can wonder if we made the right call but you can't know

it's the pretend knowing that shits me

It also shits me when people pre trade are shouting we need Jaeger, but post trade complain about the price

pre trade they think he's going to come out and do a Dangerfield from round one after two years out

post trade when he doesn't they cry blue murder

patience really is a virtue

I don't believe the club is infallible but I do have faith in in Clarko and co to turn things around given time
Exactly. What the team really needs in the medium-long term more than anything is a "Jaeger type". Information is so instantaneous now that asking people to wait an entire football season for something to pan out is an ordeal. The rest of a 23 year old's career? Forget about it.

Hearing things about him struggling in recovery isn't what anyone wants to hear, but we've probably got almost a decade to see how the whole thing pans out so why sweat over whether he makes his return in round 14 or round 17 or round 22? He'll come back when he comes back and we'll see from there. He's already played good football in parts THIS YEAR ffs.
 

Gralin

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Hasn't stopped people proclaiming the Tom Mitchell deal a raging success.
Helps us now and given his age looks good for helping us for the next 6 years which we all hope means part of our next flag

Still doesn't change my view or my point

No deal should be judged on the now.
 
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