Welcome Welcome to Hawthorn Tom Scully. Congratulations for finally making it onto an AFL list!

[Brishawk]

Helped win them a premiership though, right? I'd give TV another million if he came out of retirement and helped us get a flag this year

Changing the metric

 

[Shot of Jaeger]

Scully not Sculley ffs, and while we are at it Sheils not Shiel and Moore not Moar. (Ok venting from old posts). I always accepted Omith for Smith as I my keyboard on my phone always thought that was more realistic for some reason.

 

[Gralin]

Scully not Sculley ffs, and while we are at it Sheils not Shiel and Moore not Moar. (Ok venting from old posts). I always accepted Omith for Smith as I my keyboard on my phone always thought that was more realistic for some reason.

I. Omith happens one Brownlow year during the count and was read out by Vlad

 

[Shot of Jaeger]

I. Omith happens one Brownlow year during the count and was read out by Vlad

Brilliant
Now let's go back to slightly resenting him for leaving for the oppo

 

[tommyk72]

Scully not Sculley ffs, and while we are at it Sheils not Shiel and Moore not Moar. (Ok venting from old posts). I always accepted Omith for Smith as I my keyboard on my phone always thought that was more realistic for some reason.

This made me laugh in the context of your rant

 

[tommyk72]

Changing the metric

Damn straight I did

 

[Shot of Jaeger]

This made me laugh in the context of your rant

Very sharp to pick that up at this hour there mate, I retract my rant now . Na not really.

 

[hk89]

People like using stats to tear Tom down, but you can use them to build him up too.

In his first year, playing in a very s**t team, against an at-the-time very good bulldogs outfit, he played one of the best first year midfield games of all time from a stats point of view:
39 possessions, 15 contested. 5 tackles, 6 inside 50s, 6 rebound 50s, 7 clearances, and a goal. That was his 7th game of AFL football.
I can only imagine how excited Melbourne fans must have been after that game.

Unfortunately for both Melbourne and Scully, he seems to have been well and truly Melbourned after that. Almost Zero development in the next 2 years. Sadly
par for the course for Melbourne with their high picks at the time. After he left for GWS he certainly didn't set the world on fire, but they could afford to be
creative with how they used him. They didn't need a bloke picking up 39 possessions in the middle because they had a bunch of very talented mids already, some of whom probably had bodies more suited to that role.

After a few years, he really found his niche playing an outside gut runner, and was one of the best, if not
the best in the competition in that role. Sure, he took a few years to get there, and was on plenty of coin for many years, but again don't underestimate the impact of being fully Melbourned in his first 2 years in the system, and the time it took to wash that off him. Then at the peak of his game he goes down with an injury that he doesn't seem to have been able to bounce back from. Playing in a team that has been ordinary probably hasn't helped, and short quarters and no-MCG probably didn't do him any favours last year.

I for one wish him luck, and hope whatever he's going through he can get through while still remaining a Hawk, and that we might still see him play some good footy again.

 

[Blaze Storm]

So if Dunstall had of kicked say 30 goals a year instead of 140 we would still consider him to be one of the greatest full forwards of all time?

Because stats don't matter? Am I doing this right?

I am sure we would all like to go back in time and pay certain players less money than they were paid, and pay others a lot more.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

People like using stats to tear Tom down, but you can use them to build him up too.

In his first year, playing in a very sh*t team, against an at-the-time very good bulldogs outfit, he played one of the best first year midfield games of all time from a stats point of view:
39 possessions, 15 contested. 5 tackles, 6 inside 50s, 6 rebound 50s, 7 clearances, and a goal. That was his 7th game of AFL football.
I can only imagine how excited Melbourne fans must have been after that game.

Unfortunately for both Melbourne and Scully, he seems to have been well and truly Melbourned after that. Almost Zero development in the next 2 years. Sadly
par for the course for Melbourne with their high picks at the time. After he left for GWS he certainly didn't set the world on fire, but they could afford to be
creative with how they used him. They didn't need a bloke picking up 39 possessions in the middle because they had a bunch of very talented mids already, some of whom probably had bodies more suited to that role.

After a few years, he really found his niche playing an outside gut runner, and was one of the best, if not
the best in the competition in that role. Sure, he took a few years to get there, and was on plenty of coin for many years, but again don't underestimate the impact of being fully Melbourned in his first 2 years in the system, and the time it took to wash that off him. Then at the peak of his game he goes down with an injury that he doesn't seem to have been able to bounce back from. Playing in a team that has been ordinary probably hasn't helped, and short quarters and no-MCG probably didn't do him any favours last year.

I for one wish him luck, and hope whatever he's going through he can get through while still remaining a Hawk, and that we might still see him play some good footy again.

I don't disagree with most of what you have posted above.

My main point is that how a good player manager can manipulate clubs recruiting teams to pay way overs for what a player is actually worth. They sell the players hype/potential and clubs just eat that s..t up.

Compare for instance the careers of Tom Scully and Ricky Henderson.

Statistically and impact wise they probably had very similar careers (long periods of being average AFL standard with a couple of standout years towards the end of their careers) however I would estimate that Tom earned probably three to four times as much as Ricky over the journey.

Tom has played 2 years for the Hawks on $500k a year. His first year was okay to good and his second was awful.

Hendo played 4 years for the club on around $300k a year. His first year was good, his second was good to very good, his third was AA quality and his last was written off with injury.

Who did the club get better value from?

The highly touted, former number 1 pick on big $ or the free agent on base salary?

I use this as a cautionary tale the next time the club looks at picking up a former first rounder from another club on big money. It is a strategy fraught with risk.

 

[derp de derp]

Arguments regarding his value over his career are a moot point when it comes to his time at the Hawks. Considering his injury he was quite durable whilst being on the extreme end of the spectrum with his strengths and weaknesses. As a Hawk you can’t question his commitment. If he does retire I wish him all the best.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Flukey!]

I use this as a cautionary tale the next time the club looks at picking up a former first rounder from another club on big money. It is a strategy fraught with risk.

What is the risk though?
The $500K per year? No. The club is obligated to spend the salary cap or close to it each and every year.
The risk is therefore the difference between what they would pay Scully and the next best player available. Is it $50K? $100K? We can only guess.

The length of his contract? No. Not by the clubs standards. They do enormous due diligence to manage this risk using our expert medical team.
Hawthorn of all clubs appear to be more conservative than most on contract length.

Draft picks? Nope. Not in this instance.

There is risk, you are right.
But its not as big as you think and the club will understand it better than us punters.
Its calculated.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

What is the risk though?
The $500K per year? No. The club is obligated to spend the salary cap or close to it each and every year.
The risk is therefore the difference between what they would pay Scully and the next best player available. Is it $50K? $100K? We can only guess.

The length of his contract? No. Not by the clubs standards. They do enormous due diligence to manage this risk using our expert medical team.
Hawthorn of all clubs appear to be more conservative than most on contract length.

Draft picks? Nope. Not in this instance.

There is risk, you are right.
But its not as big as you think and the club will understand it better than us punters.
Its calculated.

Thankfully you are right in that Hawthorn are generally very conservative with their contract length which minimises the damage done.

But look at it this way, the time and effort (and money) spent in recruiting Scully and Patton (and ORourke before them) could have been invested in recruiting another underrated mid age player (Hendo) or young relatively unknown player (Scrimshaw, Gunston etc).

To use an investment analogy the Hendo, Scrimshaw trades are small caps where you can use your research to get value whereas the Scully, Patton deals are the large cap companies which are overvalued on s**t p/e ratio but have good marketing behind them.

 

[Blaze Storm]

Thankfully you are right in that Hawthorn are generally very conservative with their contract length which minimises the damage done.

But look at it this way, the time and effort (and money) spent in recruiting Scully and Patton (and ORourke before them) could have been invested in recruiting another underrated mid age player (Hendo) or young relatively unknown player (Scrimshaw, Gunston etc).

To use an investment analogy the Hendo, Scrimshaw trades are small caps where you can use your research to get value whereas the Scully, Patton deals are the large cap companies which are overvalued on sh*t p/e ratio but have good marketing behind them.

You seem to be under the misapprehension that people don't understand your point of view, rather than the fact that people just disagree with it.
Your opinion that "in hindsight it was a poor investment" is neither here nor there, and basically akin to a stabbing victim feeling like "getting stabbed was probably not the best possible outcome".

The world is full of people waving arms around pointing to "bad decisions" other people make, but the truth is, that reward comes from risk, and the more risk, the more opportunity for know-it-alls to howl at you from the back of the room about how they would have done it differently.

 

[Flukey!]

I think we just need to accept that drafting and recruitment is not an exact science.
It reflects relationships generally - be it in life or in business. Not all will be winners.

I have no doubt that the club does absolutely everything it can to make the best possible decisions, as we all would in their position.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

You seem to be under the misapprehension that people don't understand your point of view, rather than the fact that people just disagree with it.
Your opinion that "in hindsight it was a poor investment" is neither here nor there, and basically akin to a stabbing victim feeling like "getting stabbed was probably not the best possible outcome".

The world is full of people waving arms around pointing to "bad decisions" other people make, but the truth is, that reward comes from risk, and the more risk, the more opportunity for know-it-alls to howl at you from the back of the room about how they would have done it differently.

I am not having a crack at the club for getting a one off recruiting decision wrong because as we all know its not an exact science.

But I am having a crack at the macro strategy that has been employed over the last 5 years of recruiting these high profile, former first round draft picks from other clubs that have failed to cut it due to form, injury and personality concerns (or combination of the three) based on the assumption that our medical / coaching team could turn them around.

The strategy didn't work for Carlton when SOS recruited a s..t ton of GWS rejects and it has not worked for us.

I don't think I am alone on this board on making this observation.

I do recognize that the club appears to have learnt their lesson from this as their trade recruits over the past two years (ie Frost, Phillips) being much more targeted and lower on the risk curve.

 

[Mercy Seat]

I am not having a crack at the club for getting a one off recruiting decision wrong because as we all know its not an exact science.

But I am having a crack at the macro strategy that has been employed over the last 5 years of recruiting these high profile, former first round draft picks from other clubs that have failed to cut it due to form, injury and personality concerns (or combination of the three) based on the assumption that our medical / coaching team could turn them around.

The strategy didn't work for Carlton when SOS recruited a s..t ton of GWS rejects and it has not worked for us.

I don't think I am alone on this board on making this observation.

I do recognize that the club appears to have learnt their lesson from this as their trade recruits over the past two years (ie Frost, Phillips) being much more targeted and lower on the risk curve.

The strategy over the past few years has been a lot more complex than hoping “our medical / coaching team can turn around” a bunch of could have beens, and each case needs to be looked at on its individual merits.

But nonetheless, there’s no one on this board I don’t think believes that we will continue with this strategy. We took a punt on topping up, and with the runs on the board, Clarko and co had every right to try it. Had a couple of things gone right, we may have been more like Geelong, coming off a GF, but instead we are where we are, and that’s that. I think even Clarko would admit that it didn’t work, and our recruiting this past period suggests that well and truly. We move on.

 

[kazzooka]

Thankfully you are right in that Hawthorn are generally very conservative with their contract length which minimises the damage done.

But look at it this way, the time and effort (and money) spent in recruiting Scully and Patton (and ORourke before them) could have been invested in recruiting another underrated mid age player (Hendo) or young relatively unknown player (Scrimshaw, Gunston etc).

To use an investment analogy the Hendo, Scrimshaw trades are small caps where you can use your research to get value whereas the Scully, Patton deals are the large cap companies which are overvalued on sh*t p/e ratio but have good marketing behind them.

Scrimshaw was actually very similar situation to patton and Scully. Likely not as much money.

Gold Coast immediately extended his draft contract to 4 years with extra cash before the first season. This was their retention strategy at the time as they didn't want to lose guys after only 2 years so wanted to lock in the high picks early.

Scrimshaw didn't end up playing much due to injury and form and was not happy there.

They wanted to offload the inflated contract for what they considered to be a draft bust.

Had it not been for the contract that we took on it would have been like O'rourke where a yet to shine high pick goes for decent value as most clubs would still back themselves to develop a 3rd year player into a reliable player.

 

[Luv_our_club]

The strategy over the past few years has been a lot more complex than hoping “our medical / coaching team can turn around” a bunch of could have beens, and each case needs to be looked at on its individual merits.

But nonetheless, there’s no one on this board I don’t think believes that we will continue with this strategy. We took a punt on topping up, and with the runs on the board, Clarko and co had every right to try it. Had a couple of things gone right, we may have been more like Geelong, coming off a GF, but instead we are where we are, and that’s that. I think even Clarko would admit that it didn’t work, and our recruiting this past period suggests that well and truly. We move on.

I wish we had kept Hale and Lake for season 2016 and then rebuilt hard from 2017 onwards. That's what I wanted to see happen at the time.
It would have meant having low finishes in 2017-2019 because our better players were traded out for picks. I accept not everyone would have wanted to see that happen.

Now the big test over the next few years will be sticking to the rebuild strategy - clubs like Essendon, St Kilda, Melbourne get ahead of themselves and top up too soon into the rebuild.

 

[TylerDurden]

As per rumour board, so take with a grain of salt, but apparently retired yesterday.

 

[Gralin]

As per rumour board, so take with a grain of salt, but apparently retired yesterday.

We will find out soon enough if it's true

 

[Ned Ryerson]

As per rumour board, so take with a grain of salt, but apparently retired yesterday.

Think there’s any chance of adding Ed Phillips during the SSP as a result?

 

[TylerDurden]

Think there’s any chance of adding Ed Phillips during the SSP as a result?

Would be mid season yeah?

 

[Gralin]

Would be mid season yeah?

if we want to pickup someone up before the season we can just put Sicily on LTI

Obviously if Scully or Patton retire we'd not need to do that to bring someone in

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Think there’s any chance of adding Ed Phillips during the SSP as a result?

Hope not.

I’d want us to wait to see what players explode in the state or suburban leagues.