Welcome Welcome to Richmond - pick 55 Steely Green

[Profop]

I think this is correct but I also think the recruiters have shown the capacity to learn with from errors along the way.

I think it is worth looking at our picks since say 2006 broken into top 10, 11-20, 21-30. I think 2006 is right because it was when the first of the current recruiters - Francis Jackson - started full time.

1-10 Cotchin Vickery Martin Conca Vlastuin Gibcus

11-20 Riewoldt Rance Griffiths B. Ellis Lennon C. Ellis D. Rioli *Higgins *Coleman-Jones Collier-Dawkins Brown

21-30 Edwards Post Batchelor Elton Bolton Balta Dow Sonsie Banks Clarke

* Higgins and Coleman-Jones neither failures nor successes, essentially traded out for similar value to the picks used to draft them.

Key: Elite Very strong Good result for the pick Under par result Too early to tell

So we have 10 of the more desirable colours and 9 of the disappointing red colour. 2 mulligans. And I would say 6 too early to tell.

I think that rate of positive outcomes of a bit better than 50% is at least industry standard. Looking at say the 2013-14 drafts, there seems to be a strike rate of players coming good of 45-50% from the top 30 picks.


So our strike rate is healthy enough. But whilst useful, I don’t think that is the key thing with these picks. Once you are given a reasonable strike rate, the main thing is I think the character of the players who “succeed” and exactly how good they are versus the ones who succeed at rival clubs. Our elite top 30 draft picks, Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance and Bolton all seem of fairly unimpeachable character, the odd minor incident aside. Same with the other positive results, though Balta I guess has a bit to prove in that regard as he now enters his prime. It’s a bot early to tell the performance from the last 5 drafts or so, but to me we seem to have enough players tracking nicely to be likely to maintain our decent record.

Edwards is a 300 game player who won 3 premierships. That name needs to be green

 

[Dr Tigris]

I think this is correct but I also think the recruiters have shown the capacity to learn with from errors along the way.

I think it is worth looking at our picks since say 2006 broken into top 10, 11-20, 21-30. I think 2006 is right because it was when the first of the current recruiters - Francis Jackson - started full time.

1-10 Cotchin Vickery Martin Conca Vlastuin Gibcus

11-20 Riewoldt Rance Griffiths B. Ellis Lennon C. Ellis D. Rioli *Higgins *Coleman-Jones Collier-Dawkins Brown

21-30 Edwards Post Batchelor Elton Bolton Balta Dow Sonsie Banks Clarke

* Higgins and Coleman-Jones neither failures nor successes, essentially traded out for similar value to the picks used to draft them.

Key: Elite Very strong Good result for the pick Under par result Too early to tell

So we have 10 of the more desirable colours and 9 of the disappointing red colour. 2 mulligans. And I would say 6 too early to tell.

I think that rate of positive outcomes of a bit better than 50% is at least industry standard. Looking at say the 2013-14 drafts, there seems to be a strike rate of players coming good of 45-50% from the top 30 picks.


So our strike rate is healthy enough. But whilst useful, I don’t think that is the key thing with these picks. Once you are given a reasonable strike rate, the main thing is I think the character of the players who “succeed” and exactly how good they are versus the ones who succeed at rival clubs. Our elite top 30 draft picks, Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance and Bolton all seem of fairly unimpeachable character, the odd minor incident aside. Same with the other positive results, though Balta I guess has a bit to prove in that regard as he now enters his prime. It’s a bot early to tell the performance from the last 5 drafts or so, but to me we seem to have enough players tracking nicely to be likely to maintain our decent record.

I make an off the top of my head comment and you crush it with facts and figures.

Great analysis.

Looking at that where we fall down is getting top 10 picks and nailing them. Which is OK, because that means we're in finals.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

In Meteoric Rise, we have a successor of Ron's.

 

[Dr Tigris]

In Meteoric Rise, we have a successor of Ron's.

Not in the same class I'm afraid. Meteoric Rise is great. But Ron was on another level. You'd ask a weird AFL trivia question and he;d have the answer so fast it was amazing. Such a pity he's gone

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not in the same class I'm afraid. Meteoric Rise is great. But Ron was on another level. You'd ask a weird AFL trivia question and he;d have the answer so fast it was amazing. Such a pity he's gone

As I understand it Ron was a skilled programmer who had built himself a huge database of facts and figures. We’d be lucky to ever see the likes of him again. By comparison, I am a mere mortal who can search afltables, footywire, finalsiren etc just like everyone else. But even doing that, you can come up with some surprising stuff at times.

 

[Joey longshadow]

thats not a demon , thats the devil. have some respect







































































View attachment 1566446

Actually it's tim Curry in an early tom cruise film called legend

 

[Joey longshadow]

View attachment 1569119

There he is

 

[Calcium Man]

I agree. But we aren't nailing those picks. So I reckon we can learn about how to better get hits with earlier picks. just an opinion

I’d love to nail them but the picks around 20 are hard to nail.

But getting a baker/Graham at 20 doesn’t really help us IMO when we can find them elsewhere in the draft.

We need the elite players like a Cotch or Rance that can take us over the top in finals. With the picks we’ve got over the last 5-10 years our best chance imo is going high risk high reward types (at least through the draft)… and imo we’ve nailed 2 in Bolton and Rioli plus might have another in Balta. Gibcus and Sonsie also could be two legitimate stars but it’s still a long way off.

I also do believe we learnt, between 2010 and 2014 draft the majority of our first and second rounders were low risk, high floor, low ceiling picks - Conca, Batchelor, BEllis, Vlas, KMac, Lennon and CEllis I would say were “low risk” and not overly athletic. The two risks we took were Elton and Menadue.

Compare that to the change that happened in 2014 with every player taken after CEllis having elite athletic traits. Basically a pre requisite for our early picks since, bar Higgins and CCJ.

We’ve found a formula to find team oriented B grades players with later picks to fill out a side, we need to find the next Cotchin/Jack/Shedda/Rance etc… to be a premiership contender. Trading fills some of that hole but drafting those a graders is much cheaper if less likely.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I’d love to nail them but the picks around 20 are hard to nail.

But getting a baker/Graham at 20 doesn’t really help us IMO when we can find them elsewhere in the draft.

We need the elite players like a Cotch or Rance that can take us over the top in finals. With the picks we’ve got over the last 5-10 years our best chance imo is going high risk high reward types (at least through the draft)… and imo we’ve nailed 2 in Bolton and Rioli plus might have another in Balta. Gibcus and Sonsie also could be two legitimate stars but it’s still a long way off.

I also do believe we learnt, between 2010 and 2014 draft the majority of our first and second rounders were low risk, high floor, low ceiling picks - Conca, Batchelor, BEllis, Vlas, KMac, Lennon and CEllis I would say were “low risk” and not overly athletic. The two risks we took were Elton and Menadue.

Compare that to the change that happened in 2014 with every player taken after CEllis having elite athletic traits. Basically a pre requisite for our early picks since, bar Higgins and CCJ.

We’ve found a formula to find team oriented B grades players with later picks to fill out a side, we need to find the next Cotchin/Jack/Shedda/Rance etc… to be a premiership contender. Trading fills some of that hole but drafting those a graders is much cheaper if less likely.

I think your points here are spot on, great post. We just need some of those higher picks to succeed rather than all of them. But those that do succeed, we need them to be really good players.

 

[Dr Tigris]

I’d love to nail them but the picks around 20 are hard to nail.

But getting a baker/Graham at 20 doesn’t really help us IMO when we can find them elsewhere in the draft.

We need the elite players like a Cotch or Rance that can take us over the top in finals. With the picks we’ve got over the last 5-10 years our best chance imo is going high risk high reward types (at least through the draft)… and imo we’ve nailed 2 in Bolton and Rioli plus might have another in Balta. Gibcus and Sonsie also could be two legitimate stars but it’s still a long way off.

I also do believe we learnt, between 2010 and 2014 draft the majority of our first and second rounders were low risk, high floor, low ceiling picks - Conca, Batchelor, BEllis, Vlas, KMac, Lennon and CEllis I would say were “low risk” and not overly athletic. The two risks we took were Elton and Menadue.

Compare that to the change that happened in 2014 with every player taken after CEllis having elite athletic traits. Basically a pre requisite for our early picks since, bar Higgins and CCJ.

We’ve found a formula to find team oriented B grades players with later picks to fill out a side, we need to find the next Cotchin/Jack/Shedda/Rance etc… to be a premiership contender. Trading fills some of that hole but drafting those a graders is much cheaper if less likely.

I agree with your logic.

All I was saying is that we've picked a lot of high potential players who have not really kicked on. What I hope is that we have also learnt more about what characteristics lead to them kicking on, and how we can get those higher end players that will step up

 

[Dr Tigris]

As I understand it Ron was a skilled programmer who had built himself a huge database of facts and figures. We’d be lucky to ever see the likes of him again. By comparison, I am a mere mortal who can search afltables, footywire, finalsiren etc just like everyone else. But even doing that, you can come up with some surprising stuff at times.

You do really well.

Love it when you nail the Geelong campaigners with facts when they are spouting their garbage

 

[SouthernStripes]

I’m liking the angry vibes this guy puts out. Looks a good 2-3 inches taller than baker as well from the pic on the Richmond site who he models himself on. My completely uninformed opinion tells me he’ll be our pick of the draftees this year

 

[Hounddd]

I’d love to nail them but the picks around 20 are hard to nail.

But getting a baker/Graham at 20 doesn’t really help us IMO when we can find them elsewhere in the draft.

We need the elite players like a Cotch or Rance that can take us over the top in finals. With the picks we’ve got over the last 5-10 years our best chance imo is going high risk high reward types (at least through the draft)… and imo we’ve nailed 2 in Bolton and Rioli plus might have another in Balta. Gibcus and Sonsie also could be two legitimate stars but it’s still a long way off.

I also do believe we learnt, between 2010 and 2014 draft the majority of our first and second rounders were low risk, high floor, low ceiling picks - Conca, Batchelor, BEllis, Vlas, KMac, Lennon and CEllis I would say were “low risk” and not overly athletic. The two risks we took were Elton and Menadue.

Compare that to the change that happened in 2014 with every player taken after CEllis having elite athletic traits. Basically a pre requisite for our early picks since, bar Higgins and CCJ.

We’ve found a formula to find team oriented B grades players with later picks to fill out a side, we need to find the next Cotchin/Jack/Shedda/Rance etc… to be a premiership contender. Trading fills some of that hole but drafting those a graders is much cheaper if less likely.

Agree with most of that.

I do think Floss is criminally underrated, even by our supporters. He doesn't have blistering pace and a huge leap so I can see how some people may view his ceiling as "low", but * me, he's a fantastic footballer and had a stellar career for us.

 

[Infamy]

I’m liking the angry vibes this guy puts out. Looks a good 2-3 inches taller than baker as well from the pic on the Richmond site who he models himself on. My completely uninformed opinion tells me he’ll be our pick of the draftees this year

That's what I'm thinking too from very little information
The fact he's only played footy for 3 years should mean he has a lot of development left in him too

 

[Cotchy9]

Agree with most of that.

I do think Floss is criminally underrated, even by our supporters. He doesn't have blistering pace and a huge leap so I can see how some people may view his ceiling as "low", but * me, he's a fantastic footballer and had a stellar career for us.

I don’t think there’s a player on our team I’m more comfortable with when they have the ball, or are around the ball than Vlastuin. The guy is an absolute rock down back. A star imo

 

[NZ_Tiger]

I’d love to nail them but the picks around 20 are hard to nail.

But getting a baker/Graham at 20 doesn’t really help us IMO when we can find them elsewhere in the draft.

We need the elite players like a Cotch or Rance that can take us over the top in finals. With the picks we’ve got over the last 5-10 years our best chance imo is going high risk high reward types (at least through the draft)… and imo we’ve nailed 2 in Bolton and Rioli plus might have another in Balta. Gibcus and Sonsie also could be two legitimate stars but it’s still a long way off.

I also do believe we learnt, between 2010 and 2014 draft the majority of our first and second rounders were low risk, high floor, low ceiling picks - Conca, Batchelor, BEllis, Vlas, KMac, Lennon and CEllis I would say were “low risk” and not overly athletic. The two risks we took were Elton and Menadue.

Compare that to the change that happened in 2014 with every player taken after CEllis having elite athletic traits. Basically a pre requisite for our early picks since, bar Higgins and CCJ.

We’ve found a formula to find team oriented B grades players with later picks to fill out a side, we need to find the next Cotchin/Jack/Shedda/Rance etc… to be a premiership contender. Trading fills some of that hole but drafting those a graders is much cheaper if less likely.

All good points. I’d add, that we also rediscovered the value of list spaces.

No more Marics, Pettard, etc, on the rookie list. We rolled the dice on kids and turned them over quicker.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[biaseddustyfan]

campaigner frothing over dusty at training

 

[1980GFVideo]

Does anyone know our best player from a pick that high in the draft?

Past recruiters have put some high draft picks straight into the toilet bowel so it would be nice to make up for a few of those.

 

[Calcium Man]

I agree with your logic.

All I was saying is that we've picked a lot of high potential players who have not really kicked on. What I hope is that we have also learnt more about what characteristics lead to them kicking on, and how we can get those higher end players that will step up

That’s kind of the point though. They seem to have a fair idea of these characteristics that have a big impact on a player making it. And I’m also sure the refine the data every year

Personally, I think our late picks are some variation of leaders, competitors, high work ethic and proactive personalities that want to get better and have a chip on their shoulder about being small or overlooked or something like that.

Maybe it’s because I don’t read about other clubs late picks but I think if most posters were asked to describe our late picks type we’d find a lot of people saying what I described above. We have a type.

But if you're as talented as a Bolton or Balta or Sonsie (or even RCD and Dow) and have all the above you’re a top 5 pick. I believe we let some of those characteristics slide in early picks hoping our culture can nurture enough of those traits and the player reach’s a much higher ceiling then good role player.

And this is why I think our early picks are more likely to bust, we’re ignoring red flags in the hopes of getting Rance or Fyfe at 20, but come pick 50 we don’t tolerate those red flags.

Agree with most of that.

I do think Floss is criminally underrated, even by our supporters. He doesn't have blistering pace and a huge leap so I can see how some people may view his ceiling as "low", but * me, he's a fantastic footballer and had a stellar career for us.

I don’t underrate Vlas, he should have a multiple AAs. But I meant low ceiling in the sense he wasn’t a huge risk in terms of character in his draft year, compared with Bolton and Balta who both had consistency and work ethic question marks about them.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

I reckon you can add underdeveloped to the list as well.
No point taking someone at pick 50 if you’ve seen everything there is to see.

 

[Bojangles17]

I’m liking the angry vibes this guy puts out. Looks a good 2-3 inches taller than baker as well from the pic on the Richmond site who he models himself on. My completely uninformed opinion tells me he’ll be our pick of the draftees this year

Yea I’m think8mg that too , strong qualities that should stand up at afl , ball handling , decision making and disposal , avg 18p in WAFL , > than any other 18yo and state capt. has hallmarks to be a good player for us

 

[SouthernStripes]

Yea I’m think8mg that too , strong qualities that should stand up at afl , ball handling , decision making and disposal , avg 18p in WAFL , > than any other 18yo and state capt. has hallmarks to be a good player for us

It excites me the way he talks about how much he loves the contest and getting in and under. Good richmondy qualities

 

[Wrenny]

 

[Kapital city TIGER]

Great to see such positive enthusiasm
in this action shot. Despite pressure from a levitating pinch bag he is still smiling, loving it, despite obviously just pooping in his pants

View attachment 1571819

 

[rfctigerarmy]

Everlast s**t brand