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ossie_21

Norm Smith Medallist
May 28, 2010
9,218
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In Season 2019 thus far, 10 players have averaged over 25 possessions per game and kicked 10+ Goals;

Dangerfield, Coniglio, Tim Kelly, Duncan, Sheed, Dusty, Bont, Henderson, Sloane and Cripps.

When you add in 10+ Goal Assists that number shrinks to 5;

Danger, Coniglio, Kelly, Dusty and Bont

60+ Tackles and we are down to 3;

Danger, Kelly, Bont

90+ Clearances, 2 remain;

Kelly, Bont

75+ Indside 50's, One man standing;

Bont

The most complete midfielder in the game.
BoNt iS sO oVeRraTeD


 

ScragCity

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 7, 2015
8,308
15,097
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Bont4Brownlow
I've noticed a lot of people think Neale is the favourite for the Brownlow this year. Has he really been that good? I haven't watched many Brisbane games this year. He's obviously a good player but is he the standout BoG as often as our beloved Bont?
 

TempletonTheRat

Premium Platinum
Dec 21, 2014
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I've noticed a lot of people think Neale is the favourite for the Brownlow this year. Has he really been that good? I haven't watched many Brisbane games this year. He's obviously a good player but is he the standout BoG as often as our beloved Bont?
Neale has had a very good year and won't have many taking votes from him. I can fully understand him being one of the top fancies.

Tim Kelly and Cripps would be up there also
 

AjsGuns

Club Legend
Nov 16, 2008
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I've noticed a lot of people think Neale is the favourite for the Brownlow this year. Has he really been that good? I haven't watched many Brisbane games this year. He's obviously a good player but is he the standout BoG as often as our beloved Bont?
Neale's first 6 games were fire, his probably on 10-12 votes just from those opening rounds. Then had a quiet run of games and has picked up again the last 3 weeks.

Honestly I think this is the most open Brownlow medal year I can remember, 2018 everyone knew Mitchell was going to win, Dusty was an unbackable lock in 2017, danger the same in 2016 and I think most astute punters had Fyfe in 2015.

Tim Kelly has had lots of exceptional games and his flashy (so would be noticed by the umps), Geelong have also won so many games which means there will be heaps of votes (the whole players stealing votes off each other is a myth that was dispelled with Cousins and Judd years ago). His disadvantage will be his a second year player, and umpires tend to go for big name players when it's tight. Obviously there is heaps of hype around him now, but there wasn't in the first 5-6 rounds.

You even have someone like Travis Boak flying under the radar, he polls exceptionally well unlike his team mate Robbie Gray. Boak polled 21 votes in 2014 and his 2019 has been his best season - and by a considerable margin. Only probably going to need mid 20's to win this year as well IMO (25-28). Unlike Fyfe, Danger and Dustys big numbers in 2015, 2016 & 2017 (31, 35 and 36)

Tim Kelly, Patrick Cripps, Nat Fyfe (polls like Judd used to), Lachie Neale, Bont and Boak are all chances to win. Few others may come into contention if they hit a purple patch like Coniglio. Wouldn't even be surprised if Brody Grundy won the midfielders award and caused a huge upset.

On odds though, I like Bont the best. Paying $10-$15 and he has an easy run of games left, 5 possible wins from 7 games. Probably on 15-16 votes right now and Polls exceptionally well, polled 20 votes in 2016 and 19 votes in 2017. Statistically, his 2019 is ahead and his gone from averaging 23-24 possies a game in those 2 years up to 27 possies a game. All of those players above would be on around 14-20 votes. Anyone's medal ATM IMO. Ignoring odds, and picking the player I think will win from an extremely open field and being objective/unbiased I'd choose Neale atm, followed by Bont, Kelly and Cripps. Anyone's medal though and I'd have Bont around $6 not $11-$13 like most places. Tim Kelly is around $3-$4 and Neale is around $4-$5 as a comparasion.
 
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mattwa

Team Captain
Jun 10, 2007
467
607
wa
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
If his kicking boots were on towards goal he would be a 2 buck chance. His form has been unbelievable and rocking up to the footy every week to watch this guy play is worth the membership fee. A truly special player who will be even better next year
 

fpcookie

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 9, 2013
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Bont definitely worth a nibble each way. I got on preseason at $34 as well which is looking Ok
 

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bresker

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2005
8,283
10,151
Brunswick East 3057
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In Season 2019 thus far, 10 players have averaged over 25 possessions per game and kicked 10+ Goals;

Dangerfield, Coniglio, Tim Kelly, Duncan, Sheed, Dusty, Bont, Henderson, Sloane and Cripps.

When you add in 10+ Goal Assists that number shrinks to 5;

Danger, Coniglio, Kelly, Dusty and Bont

60+ Tackles and we are down to 3;

Danger, Kelly, Bont

90+ Clearances, 2 remain;

Kelly, Bont

75+ Indside 50's, One man standing;

Bont

The most complete midfielder in the game.

Can you add contested possessions to that list? 16 last week apparently.

Yet some on the gameday thread cracked the sads about a couple of shanked kicks.
 

mcgleereturns

All Australian
Jan 1, 2015
692
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Grant, West and Johnson were unfairly never quite ranked equally with their peers but Bont is beginning to build a compelling case as best of the generation, especially if he fixes this goalkicking dilemma. Some of the media have the type of man crush on him the other three never received in comparison to their equals.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Whoyagot

Team Captain
Sep 18, 2018
351
502
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
My guesses for bonts brownlow votes so far:

Round 1 v Sydney: 3
Round 3 v GC: 3
Round 4 v Pies: 2
Round 7 v Tigs: 2
Round 13 v Blues: 1
Round 14 v Pies: 1
Round 15 v Port: 3
Round 16 v Cats: 3

This puts him on 18 which would defs be in the top 5 with 7 rounds to go. If he continues his current form he could win it. How good would that be!
 

True Dog

Club Legend
Sep 27, 2011
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Grant, West and Johnson were unfairly never quite ranked equally with their peers but Bont is beginning to build a compelling case as best of the generation, especially if he fixes this goalkicking dilemma. Some of the media have the type of man crush on him the other three never received in comparison to their equals.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If he shortens his run up his set shot goal kicking would be fixed.... Easily done ✅
 

Luder

Team Captain
Jun 7, 2019
474
756
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
My guesses for bonts brownlow votes so far:

Round 1 v Sydney: 3
Round 3 v GC: 3
Round 4 v Pies: 2
Round 7 v Tigs: 2
Round 13 v Blues: 1
Round 14 v Pies: 1
Round 15 v Port: 3
Round 16 v Cats: 3

This puts him on 18 which would defs be in the top 5 with 7 rounds to go. If he continues his current form he could win it. How good would that be!
Brownlow predictor currently has him on 14, although there are some absolutely terrible predictions in there with players polling despite arguably not even being top 10 on field on the day. They have:

Round 1 v Sydney: 2
Round 3 v GC: 2
Round 4 v Pies: 1
Round 7 v Tigs: 3
Round 13 v Blues: 1
Round 15 v Port: 3
Round 16 v Cats: 2

So pretty similar to yours, but not exactly the same. The Brownlow predictor seems to massively overrate goals, leading to forwards receiving more votes than they should (giving Schache 3 votes for Round 2 after his 4 goal performance - he was good, but far from BOG). Interesting, though, that they have Dunkley sitting on 10 votes, so not far behind Bont. That could hurt his chances if it ends up like that, since Macrae has also been BOG a couple times this year
 

TempletonTheRat

Premium Platinum
Dec 21, 2014
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Brownlow predictor currently has him on 14, although there are some absolutely terrible predictions in there with players polling despite arguably not even being top 10 on field on the day. They have:

Round 1 v Sydney: 2
Round 3 v GC: 2
Round 4 v Pies: 1
Round 7 v Tigs: 3
Round 13 v Blues: 1
Round 15 v Port: 3
Round 16 v Cats: 2

So pretty similar to yours, but not exactly the same. The Brownlow predictor seems to massively overrate goals, leading to forwards receiving more votes than they should (giving Schache 3 votes for Round 2 after his 4 goal performance - he was good, but far from BOG). Interesting, though, that they have Dunkley sitting on 10 votes, so not far behind Bont. That could hurt his chances if it ends up like that, since Macrae has also been BOG a couple times this year
I'd be very surprised if Naughty doesn't get the 3 votes against the Tigers
 

Luder

Team Captain
Jun 7, 2019
474
756
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I'd be very surprised if Naughty doesn't get the 3 votes against the Tigers
Deservedly so. The predictor is often so far off the mark, it brings every prediction into doubt. I put no stock into their predictions to be honest, and wouldn't be surprised if Kelly doesn't win it despite appearing to be the clear favourite
 

AjsGuns

Club Legend
Nov 16, 2008
1,906
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Melbourne
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e very surprised if Naughty doesn't get the 3 votes against the Tigers
Naughton was better in that game 100%. But like mcgleereturns said, forwards poll worse than midfielders. He also isn't a big name to umpires. I've heard from a very reliable source that in games were there are 2 standouts, the umpires tend to favour the bigger name player (look at how many votes Dusty, Danger and Fyfe polled over that 3 year period, they all got 30+).

FWIW I have Bont somewhere between 14-19.
Round 1 - 3 votes
Round 3 - 2 votes
Round 4 - 2 votes
Round 7 - 3 votes
Round 15 - 3 votes
Round 16 - 3 votes

That puts him at 16 - which is my best guess.

May only get 2 votes in the round 7 with Naughty going huge. Also against Port Adelaide he went huge in quarter 1, then was much quiter over the next 3 quarters, so may only poll 2 there as well (umpires will have the second half fresher in their minds - like the AA team, second half of the year is often rewarded and the first half is more forgotten). Conversely, has a chance polling a vote in rounds 8, 13 and 14. Puts him at a 14-19 vote range. Probably needs about 10 more votes to be a real chance (we should get 4-5 wins with 7 games left).
 
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