Competitions WereDocker 4: One Hub at Horrorland (Freagles win! Congrats Hickey and hungrytiger)

[Carbine Chaos]

ACTIVE PLAYERS
Truckosaurus as Ash Hansen
CM9000 as Tom Hickey - ALPHA FREAGLE - WINNER
squashface as hungrytiger - CONVERTED FREAGLE - WINNER
guero as Chris ‘Muddy’ Waterman


THE FALLEN
Doashuey as Von van Handler (warging into Aussie the Eagle)
Dazzler10 as Gary Stocks
Quinz as Matt Priddis
OMGFridge as Mark Nicoski
Mr Eagle as Daniel Ricciardo - The Beta Freagle
Smeg Head as Tony Evans
Barrybran as Chris Masten
ashley12 as Ashley McIntosh
Ochre as Himself
ZergMinion as Spider Burton
MWPP as Jack Darling
RookiePick as Julie Bishop
Godfather32 as Mitch Brown

 

[Truckosaurus]

I'll save you all the time- I'm a villager as I've said all along. It's too late for us now, but look at the people who controlled the vote today

Don't worry, if I make it through the night I will.

 

[RookiePick]

I honestly think the way we play the vote leader going out at deadline is making it easier for the Freagles.

When I have played these games before you needed the absolute majority to be on one person by deadline or there was no lynch for the day.

I'll suggest that as a change for the next time we play.

 

[CM9000]

Been on and off again today, and I’m a bit surprised by the vote.

Despite the fact she was voting for me, I didn’t think MWPP was a Freagle. IMO the way things are looking, guero might be onto something.

 

[guero]

Been on and off again today, and I’m a bit surprised by the vote.

Despite the fact she was voting for me, I didn’t think MWPP was a Freagle. IMO the way things are looking, guero might be onto something.

If I’m on to something you’re a freagle amigo.

But it’s not about me being on to something. It’s logic. Here’s the reasoning laid out in a different format.

Assumption 1. Players that voted Ricciardo are all eagles.

Conclusion 1. J Bish, ht and me are good guys.

Conclusion 2. 2 of Hansen, Hickey and Brown are freagles.

Assumption 2. If Hansen is a freagle she wouldn’t have voted for her fellow freagle yesterday.

Conclusion 3. Hansen isn’t a freagle. She voted for both Hickey and Brown at various times yesterday, so assumption 2 would contradict assumption 1 if she was a freagle. That is, if Hansen is a freagle and she didn’t vote for a fellow freagle yesterday then one of the Ricciardo 3 is dirty.

Conclusion 4. The remaining eagles are Hansen, J Bish, ht and me.

Conclusion 5. The remaining freagles are Hickey and Brown.

Conclusion 6. Eagles vote out Hickey and Brown over the next 2 days.

If assumption 1 doesn’t hold we run out of time and lose. At least one of J Bish and ht is dirty and played a very clever game voting for Ricciardo. Kudos to them.

If assumption 1 holds but assumption 2 doesn’t we can’t win either. But I’m now as certain as I can be that trucko/Ash Hansen flips town.

Edit: the upshot is I believe the eagles win from here by taking out freagles Hickey and Brown.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Bishop stood still, note luring her to the giant chess board still hanging out of her pocket. She was nothing if not a woman of action, determined to get on the front foot and drive the two remaining Freagles back from whence they came. Unfortunately, she looked down to see that it was not a chess board at all! Each square had a different letter on it, with large scrawled writing in blood dripping off a stall to the side. 'Who has some skills?"

Venables. It had to be Venables. Julie stepped to the tile to her left, emblazoned with a red V. Sadly, it crumbled beneath her feet. She could hear the cackling and mocking voice of two Freagles coming from above as she fell to her doom.

"It starts with a G!"

-------------------------------

RookiePick aka JULIE BISHOP has been polished off! Last chance saloon this. Votes due 9pm tonight. Get it wrong? You lose!

 

[Truckosaurus]

Ash Hansen takes a 50/50 shot and votes for Tom Hickey.

 

[guero]

If Ash is voting Hickey then so am I.

 

[CM9000]

If I’m on to something you’re a freagle amigo.

But it’s not about me being on to something. It’s logic. Here’s the reasoning laid out in a different format.

Assumption 1. Players that voted Ricciardo are all eagles.

Conclusion 1. J Bish, ht and me are good guys.

Conclusion 2. 2 of Hansen, Hickey and Brown are freagles.

Assumption 2. If Hansen is a freagle she wouldn’t have voted for her fellow freagle yesterday.

Conclusion 3. Hansen isn’t a freagle. She voted for both Hickey and Brown at various times yesterday, so assumption 2 would contradict assumption 1 if she was a freagle. That is, if Hansen is a freagle and she didn’t vote for a fellow freagle yesterday then one of the Ricciardo 3 is dirty.

Conclusion 4. The remaining eagles are Hansen, J Bish, ht and me.

Conclusion 5. The remaining freagles are Hickey and Brown.

Conclusion 6. Eagles vote out Hickey and Brown over the next 2 days.

If assumption 1 doesn’t hold we run out of time and lose. At least one of J Bish and ht is dirty and played a very clever game voting for Ricciardo. Kudos to them.

If assumption 1 holds but assumption 2 doesn’t we can’t win either. But I’m now as certain as I can be that trucko/Ash Hansen flips town.

Edit: the upshot is I believe the eagles win from here by taking out freagles Hickey and Brown.

How can you be certain that a Freagle wouldn’t vote for their own, if it would give them credibility? Your whole argument rests on that assumption, and it is hardly certain at that. IMO I would argue that’s it’s more likely the Freagle is someone who did vote for Ricciardo when given the chance.

Ash Hansen takes a 50/50 shot and votes for Tom Hickey.

If Ash is voting Hickey then so am I.

Doesn’t it seem odd to you guero that Truckosaurus has stuck solely with lower volume posters, a theory I myself said was likely? What makes it more likely that I’m the Freagle, when Truckosaurus has literally been sticking with posters on the lower end the whole game? Think about who hasn’t been killed for most of the game (the higher volume posters) - wouldn’t it be more likely that the Freagles have been hiding among the more active posters, while keeping a couple lower volume ones alive as further insurance to win the game (myself and Brown)? It’s seems to have worked so far.

I vote for Ash Hansen, and Godfather32 given that both Truckosaurus and guero are likely to vote for you next, I would recommend you join me.

 

[Truckosaurus]

There's only a 'next' if we get a Freagle tonight.

 

[CM9000]

There's only a 'next' if we get a Freagle tonight.

And why have you stuck purely with lower volume posters? What makes that any more likely (that the Freagle is between Brown and me) given they’re the one’s who were mostly killed at the start of the game, then the Freagles hiding among the higher volume posters?

I reckon you’ve played the long con, pushing this idea, while keeping both Brown and me alive as the keys to winning the game.

guero how can you be certain that, assuming Hansen is a Freagle, she didn’t vote for one? She has only went after those on the lower volume end, remember that.

 

[squashface]

For some reason I thought we had another day, so if we get it wrong today then we lose? ffs this is gearing up to have me balls it up at the end again.

 

[squashface]

guero my only concern in your analysis is Assumption 2. If Hansen puts a vote on Brown late and they are partners then we immediately discount him as Freagle and he wins out, but is it too risky to potentially lose his partner that late?

My theory was Hickey is the alpha and Brown the convert but Hansen as alpha and Brown as convert also works when I think about it and consult the Spreadsheet(TM).

What are your thoughts on Hickey's defence?

 

[Truckosaurus]

And why have you stuck purely with lower volume posters? What makes that any more likely (that the Freagle is between Brown and me) given they’re the one’s who were mostly killed at the start of the game, then the Freagles hiding among the higher volume posters?

I reckon you’ve played the long con, pushing this idea, while keeping both Brown and me alive as the keys to winning the game.

guero how can you be certain that, assuming Hansen is a Freagle, she didn’t vote for one? She has only went after those on the lower volume end, remember that.

I suspect the convert is among the high volume posters. But as I've said all along, my theory is no stronger than any other. We have no evidence. Why have you stopped voting for Brown?

 

[Godfather32]

Probably because I'm not the f****** freagle.
You know what, f*** it, Mitch Brown thinks it's the most vocal of the lot, I vote Muddy Waterman

 

[squashface]

CM9000 Truckosaurus guero thoughts on flipping to Brown after that outburst?

I’m pretty confident Brown is the convert but I think the alpha is 50/50 between Hansen and Hickey and a 50/50 is no good on what is our last chance if we are wrong.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

	Votes
Hickey	2
Waterman	1

Still early days with CM9000 and squashface yet to vote.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

 

[guero]

How can you be certain that a Freagle wouldn’t vote for their own, if it would give them credibility? Your whole argument rests on that assumption, and it is hardly certain at that. IMO I would argue that’s it’s more likely the Freagle is someone who did vote for Ricciardo when given the chance.

1. I can't. I think it's most likely a freagle wouldn't vote for another freagle at this stage of the game for fear of drawing attention to him/her.
2. All of my arguments rest on assumptions. It comes down to scenarios that are most likely.
3. Please go ahead. Provide a convincing argument that one of the freagles voted for Riccardio. Saying 'I would argue' is not quite the same as actually arguing is it? I assume you suspect squash is the other freagle since you've said several times throughout the thread you don't think I'm a freagle?

Doesn’t it seem odd to you guero that Truckosaurus has stuck solely with lower volume posters, a theory I myself said was likely? What makes it more likely that I’m the Freagle, when Truckosaurus has literally been sticking with posters on the lower end the whole game? Think about who hasn’t been killed for most of the game (the higher volume posters) - wouldn’t it be more likely that the Freagles have been hiding among the more active posters, while keeping a couple lower volume ones alive as further insurance to win the game (myself and Brown)? It’s seems to have worked so far.

1. No. I don't have any insight into why trucko votes the way she does. To be honest this high volume-low volume stuff is just noise to me. I could care less how often a player posts, I just look for anomalies.
2. I'm pretty sure you would know what is and isn't likely behaviour for the freagles in this game.

My turn.

Given that Hansen has voted for you and you've voted for Hansen I think it's safe to assume you and Hansen are not in cahoots. Invoking assumption 1 (Riccardio voters are clean) means that Brown has to be dirty.

You voted for freagle Brown the first four rounds. So you had a freagle on the run and missed your shot to convince us all of his guilt. Or did you throw votes on a fellow freagle for credibility purposes? I find it interesting you haven't voted for freagle Brown the last few rounds - are you concerned about attracting attention to your partner in crime?

Bizarrely you switched your vote to eagle J Bish in round 5, even though J Bish was pretty much teflon after round 3. I recall eagle zerg quizzing you at the time about the vote and your unsatisfactory reasons for voting Bishop. So tell us again why you stopped voting for freagle Brown and voted for eagle J Bish?

And with this:

I vote for Ash Hansen, and @Godfather32 given that both Truckosaurus and guero are likely to vote for you next, I would recommend you join me.

you're trying to make an alliance with freagle Brown. Or do you think squash and trucko are the 2 freagles?

 

[Godfather32]

CM9000 Truckosaurus guero thoughts on flipping to Brown after that outburst?

I’m pretty confident Brown is the convert but I think the alpha is 50/50 between Hansen and Hickey and a 50/50 is no good on what is our last chance if we are wrong.

I'm pretty confident you're wrong

 

[squashface]

HT votes Mitch Brown for the reasons posted earlier

 

[guero]

guero my only concern in your analysis is Assumption 2. If Hansen puts a vote on Brown late and they are partners then we immediately discount him as Freagle and he wins out, but is it too risky to potentially lose his partner that late?

Yeah I know mate. We all have doubts, it's just the nature of the game. Us eagles can't be sure of anyone except ourselves so we have to make assumptions based on the likelihood of particular scenarios.

What are your thoughts on Hickey's defence?

Based on Hickey's post I'm now more certain than ever Hansen is an eagle. Hickey seems to be suggesting that you and Hansen are the freagle duo. What do you think of that?

 

[Godfather32]

I change my vote to HT

 

[guero]

Why have you stopped voting for Brown?

Great question. CM9000 why did you stop voting for Brown and switch to teflon J Bish?

 

[guero]

I change my vote to HT

Instructions in a pm from your freagle partner mate?

 

[squashface]

Yeah I know mate. We all have doubts, it's just the nature of the game. Us eagles can't be sure of anyone except ourselves so we have to make assumptions based on the likelihood of particular scenarios.

Based on Hickey's post I'm now more certain than ever Hansen is an eagle. Hickey seems to be suggesting that you and Hansen are the freagle duo. What do you think of that?

Me trying to save both Hickey and Hansen today disproves that theory imo. One of them isn’t a Freagle and one of them is I think, on any other day I would be happy to go wherever the votes are but I just don’t think we can afford that 50/50 hit.

Brown putting his vote on wherever the heat is coming from just screams Freagle to me