West Coast/Hawthorn - Who will do better in 2017?

[Jade]

The draft is not the only means of adding players to a team's list

Indeed it is not, I don't dispute that in the slightest.

Sprinkles on ice cream, however, is a downside better than sprinkles on s**t.

 

[Suma Magic]

The Eagles have added two mature-aged players to their list compared to Hawthorn's one.

So I guess if the Hawks draft a mature-aged player then they are also "topping up"?

 

[Wesley2]

Good luck finding someone to have the argument you desperately want, Jade. I've seen it on this forum enough times, someone should bite.

 

[Sando22]

Hawks

 

[Gunstall555]

Well you're half right.

Yes, I would be pissed if you were in premiership contention come the end of next year.

I'd suggest you won't be though. You were very unimpressive this year (though I grant you the fact that you were a champion side still enabled you to scrap some wins).

You have weakened your side for this year, AND have killed the mechanism for replenishment through the draft.

You'll struggle to make the eight IMO - and it will only be worse in 2018.

Lol so the doggies have as many close wins as us (1 more I believe), slightly lower % and won less games before the finals, lost their best key defender, have more 30 year olds than us running around next year (including OLD 30 year olds like Boyd, Morris & Murphy) and we are the team falling away?

Geelong lose Caddy, Bartel, Enright, Kersten & Clark and replace them with Tuohy & Black and have no first rounder for the next 2 years either, still have a Dad's army backline and yet everyone still rates them above Hawthorn?

I think your hate for Hawthorn is making it easier for you to convince yourself that we are going to drop (this is obvious based on the way you melted over missing out on O'Meara). We will actually have at least 1 solid tall target next year (maybe 2 if the rumours that Roughy is looking good to go early next year), and 2 of the absolute best young midfielders in the game at our disposal. There should also be improvement from the likes of Burton, Lovell, Brand, Howe & Hardwick next year. A forward line that contains the like of Breust, Rioli, Gunston, Roughead, Vickery, Puopolo & Sicily is as dangerous as it gets.

I believe we'll be right in it next year, GWS might be a bridge too far, but there is no reason why we aren't up there with the rest. Haters like you only see what you want to see though.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawthorn's kids are all s**t and have no scope for improvement because none of them could force Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson out of the side, and despite having 7 debutants in 2016 looking for more game time in 2017, trading away 4-5 speculative picks(including 3rd and 4th rounders) means they've "sold their future".

This is the logic. Apparently.

 

[Jade]

Lol so the doggies have as many close wins as us (1 more I believe), slightly lower % and won less games before the finals, lost their best key defender, have more 30 year olds than us running around next year (including OLD 30 year olds like Boyd, Morris & Murphy) and we are the team falling away?

Hahahahaha....... you know what the Dogs have that you don't?

Talent on their list.

You didn't have a single player under the age of 21 take the field when they pantsed the Hawks, and had only two under the age of 23 - your list is completely void of young talent.

The Dogs? Five players under 21, nine under 23.

Geelong lose Caddy, Bartel, Enright, Kersten & Clark and replace them with Tuohy & Black and have no first rounder for the next 2 years either, still have a Dad's army backline and yet everyone still rates them above Hawthorn?

I don't rate Geelong.

Well in fairness, I rate them higher than Hawthorn, but I also think their list is fundamentally flawed.

I think your hate for Hawthorn is making it easier for you to convince yourself that we are going to drop (this is obvious based on the way you melted over missing out on O'Meara).

Show me my O'Meara melt - or just wildly thrashing away there are we?

We will actually have at least 1 solid tall target next year (maybe 2 if the rumours that Roughy is looking good to go early next year), and 2 of the absolute best young midfielders in the game at our disposal.

******* LOL

Mitchell was the fourth or fifth best midfielder at Sydney (a team also handily beaten by those Dogs) - but he puts on a Hawks guernsey and all of a sudden he's one of the 'absolute best midfielders in the game' eh?

There should also be improvement from the likes of Burton, Lovell, Brand, Howe & Hardwick next year. A forward line that contains the like of Breust, Rioli, Gunston, Roughead, Vickery, Puopolo & Sicily is as dangerous as it gets.

Ahhhh yes - the old 'the youth should improve next year'. Never mind that they weren't good enough to break in to a side that got crushed by REAL talented youth.

I believe we'll be right in it next year, GWS might be a bridge too far, but there is no reason why we aren't up there with the rest. Haters like you only see what you want to see though.

There are multiple reasons Hawthorn won't be up with the rest - I'm just looking at a chorus line of Hawks fans that absolutely refuse to see it.

But hey, I can't predict the future. Maybe you will.

 

[Jade]

Hawthorn's kids are all s**t and have no scope for improvement because none of them could force Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson out of the side, and despite having 7 debutants in 2016 looking for more game time in 2017, trading away 4-5 speculative picks(including 3rd and 4th rounders) means they've "sold their future".

This is the logic. Apparently.

Yep, pretty much.

 

[Saint]

Lol so the doggies have as many close wins as us (1 more I believe), slightly lower % and won less games before the finals, lost their best key defender, have more 30 year olds than us running around next year (including OLD 30 year olds like Boyd, Morris & Murphy) and we are the team falling away?

Geelong lose Caddy, Bartel, Enright, Kersten & Clark and replace them with Tuohy & Black and have no first rounder for the next 2 years either, still have a Dad's army backline and yet everyone still rates them above Hawthorn?

I think your hate for Hawthorn is making it easier for you to convince yourself that we are going to drop (this is obvious based on the way you melted over missing out on O'Meara). We will actually have at least 1 solid tall target next year (maybe 2 if the rumours that Roughy is looking good to go early next year), and 2 of the absolute best young midfielders in the game at our disposal. There should also be improvement from the likes of Burton, Lovell, Brand, Howe & Hardwick next year. A forward line that contains the like of Breust, Rioli, Gunston, Roughead, Vickery, Puopolo & Sicily is as dangerous as it gets.

I believe we'll be right in it next year, GWS might be a bridge too far, but there is no reason why we aren't up there with the rest. Haters like you only see what you want to see though.

Burton, Lovell, Brand, Howe and Hardwick have a combined tally of 3/5ths of stuff all achieved in their careers so far. Likely one or two of them will be half decent. Sicily named as part of a dangerous forward line despite being dropped for finals which were lost to a team that you don't rate (Geelong). Only one of the Geelong players lost will be missed and that's Enright. Caddy was given away for a 2nd round pick Bartel retired and Kersten and Clark weren't in the finals team. Their list is old and their youngsters are average, but they're still not deteriorating as badly as Hawthorn who lost their two best players and gained Sydney's 5th best midfielder to pick up the slack.

If you don't rate Geelong, Hawthorn are clearly worse.

 

[Gunstall555]

Hahahahaha....... you know what the Dogs have that you don't?

Talent on their list.

You didn't have a single player under the age of 21 take the field when they pantsed the Hawks, and had only two under the age of 23 - your list is completely void of young talent.

The Dogs? Five players under 21, nine under 23.

Only because Burton was injured early in the Geelong game the week before otherwise he would have played.

I don't rate Geelong.

Well in fairness, I rate them higher than Hawthorn, but I also think their list is fundamentally flawed.

Based on what I stated earlier, why do you rate them higher than us?

Show me my O'Meara melt - or just wildly thrashing away there are we?

There is a character limit per post, so I can't include them all here

******* LOL

Mitchell was the fourth or fifth best midfielder at Sydney (a team also handily beaten by those Dogs) - but he puts on a Hawks guernsey and all of a sudden he's one of the 'absolute best midfielders in the game' eh?

Best young midfielders in the game - how do you want to look at this? We had no good young players, we bring in elite young players and now you decide he's a spud even though most would agree he was probably 3rd best on ground in the GF (behind T Boyd & J Kennedy).

Ahhhh yes - the old 'the youth should improve next year'. Never mind that they weren't good enough to break in to a side that got crushed by REAL talented youth.

Just because they either had to wait for senior opportunities or had to deal with injuries doesn't dilute their talent. Pending injuries, I'd expect most of them to play week in and week out next year and make a real contribution to our side.

There are multiple reasons Hawthorn won't be up with the rest - I'm just looking at a chorus line of Hawks fans that absolutely refuse to see it.

But hey, I can't predict the future. Maybe you will.

I bet you Hawthorn finish with at least 15 home and away wins next year. You probably aren't brave enough to make a bet with me over this though.

 

[Jade]

I bet you Hawthorn finish with at least 15 home and away wins next year. You probably aren't brave enough to make a bet with me over this though.

Done.

What stakes you want to see?

I mean, I could address each one of your points again and show you exactly how blinded you seem to be - but I like this idea. Saves the pissing contest.

You've won at least 15 H&A games for six years straight.

If I'm right, you won't win that many.

 

[Gunstall555]

Burton, Lovell, Brand, Howe and Hardwick have a combined tally of 3/5ths of stuff all achieved in their careers so far. Likely one or two of them will be half decent. Sicily named as part of a dangerous forward line despite being dropped for finals which were lost to a team that you don't rate (Geelong). Only one of the Geelong players lost will be missed and that's Enright. Caddy was given away for a 2nd round pick Bartel retired and Kersten and Clark weren't in the finals team. Their list is old and their youngsters are average, but they're still not deteriorating as badly as Hawthorn who lost their two best players and gained Sydney's 5th best midfielder to pick up the slack.

If you don't rate Geelong, Hawthorn are clearly worse.

Another one that wants it both ways, if Bartel and Kersten weren't important for finals, then why do you not rate Mitchell was who exceptional in the finals series? I believe Caddy was Geelongs 2nd or 3rd highest goal scorer last year. Also have you forgotten we have recruited Jeagar O'Meara?

Burton is coming off a major injury but looks to have already cemented his place in our best 22.
If you look at the 11 weeks that Brand played for us, we were rated #1 in defense in the AFL over those weeks. Ranked 9th when he didn't play.
Lovell will have a 2nd preseason under his belt and should be looking to play a lot of senior games next year.
Howe has shown more than Langford than Essendon at this stage, even though Langford is talking himself up as the next Fyfe.
Hardwick will probably have to wait his turn due to the depth of our forward line.
Sicily kicked 30 goals, yet played almost a 3rd of the season in defense. What other team could boast 30 goals out their 7th best forward, who is playing in his first mostly full AFL season?
Kade Stewart should also get another look this year, played 3 pretty nice games for us last year as a rookie.

You sound like another bitter Essendon fan still reeling from a 100 point loss from us this year when we didn't even get our of 2nd gear all match.

 

[Gunstall555]

Done.

What stakes you want to see?

I mean, I could address each one of your points again and show you exactly how blinded you seem to be - but I like this idea. Saves the pissing contest.

You've won at least 15 H&A games for six years straight.

If I'm right, you won't win that many.

Sig best for the rest of the 2017 calendar year after the season is over.

 

[Jade]

Sig best for the rest of the 2017 calendar year after the season is over.

Ooooohhhhhhhhhh that's a big one.

Tell you what - I've been talking a lot about this; talking a big game so to speak - so I'm happy to agree to this one.

The instant the Hawks win 15 H&A games, or the instant it becomes impossible for them to do so, until the end of the year.

You're on.

 

[Scotland]

Is this just Jade vs Hawthorn again? Righto.

On topic I don't think either team will be that good in 2017. Both in contention for a 5-8 spot but no higher, IMO.

If we had Mitchell and Naitanui, maybe, but Mitchell (as great as he is) is another slow plodder. He'll finish top 10 in our B&F but won't be the difference between this year's finals team and a flag.

 

[Gunstall555]

Ooooohhhhhhhhhh that's a big one.

Tell you what - I've been talking a lot about this; talking a big game so to speak - so I'm happy to agree to this one.

The instant the Hawks win 15 H&A games, or the instant it becomes impossible for them to do so, until the end of the year.

You're on.

Yep fine by me.

 

[Saint]

Another one that wants it both ways, if Bartel and Kersten weren't important for finals, then why do you not rate Mitchell was who exceptional in the finals series? I believe Caddy was Geelongs 2nd or 3rd highest goal scorer last year. Also have you forgotten we have recruited Jeagar O'Meara?

Burton is coming off a major injury but looks to have already cemented his place in our best 22.
If you look at the 11 weeks that Brand played for us, we were rated #1 in defense in the AFL over those weeks. Ranked 9th when he didn't play.
Lovell will have a 2nd preseason under his belt and should be looking to play a lot of senior games next year.
Howe has shown more than Langford than Essendon at this stage, even though Langford is talking himself up as the next Fyfe.
Hardwick will probably have to wait his turn due to the depth of our forward line.
Sicily kicked 30 goals, yet played almost a 3rd of the season in defense. What other team could boast 30 goals out their 7th best forward, who is playing in his first mostly full AFL season?
Kade Stewart should also get another look this year, played 3 pretty nice games for us last year as a rookie.

You sound like another bitter Essendon fan still reeling from a 100 point loss from us this year when we didn't even get our of 2nd gear all match.

Mitchell was exceptional in his finals series because Kennedy, Hannebury and Parker were feeding him the ball and taking all the heat.

No other club in history has lost their two best players and insisted they will be better the next year except for the delusional hawks. I think Clarkson needs to hold a press conference and let some of you in on the plan or you'll all be confused as hell by round 5.

 

[QuietB]

I'm not trying to spin anything.

When Hawthorn began its habit of 'adding' players through methods other than the draft, it had already built a solid base of talent through the draft.

Today, it has a wafer thin list - lacking that same talent.

And how do you get that elite draft talent without top draft picks?

I think 4 premierships in the last 9 seasons indicates it is working pretty well

Hawks will be fine next year. They will be easily better and I would be more worried about a few teams who finished above them who will regress.

 

[Jade]

And how do you get that elite draft talent without top draft picks?

I think 4 premierships in the last 9 seasons indicates it is working pretty well

No I'd suggest that what you DID worked incredibly well.

But that is not what you are doing now.

Hawks will be fine next year. They will be easily better and I would be more worried about a few teams who finished above them who will regress.

I would be absolutely stunned if Hawthorn did better next year (in terms of wins) than they did in 2016.

Four teams finished above the Hawks in 2016 - and I would be astonished if ANY of them performed worse than the Hawks in 2017.

 

[QuietB]

No I'd suggest that what you DID worked incredibly well.

But that is not what you are doing now.



I would be absolutely stunned if Hawthorn did better next year (in terms of wins) than they did in 2016.

Four teams finished above the Hawks in 2016 - and I would be astonished if ANY of them performed worse than the Hawks in 2017.

So what do you propose Hawthorn do right now? Hawks have sold there next two first round picks plus a bunch of middle picks for T Mitchell and JOM. That is good business.

To put it in perspective the Hawks traded 14 for T Mitchell. Pick 14 for the last 10 years is;

2006 Andrew McIntyre
2007 Jack Grimes
2008 Ayce Cordy
2009 Lewis Jetta
2010 Brodie Smith
2011 Devon Smith
2012 Aiden Corr
2013 Cameron McCarthy
2014 Jake Lever
2015 Eric Hipwood

Some of those players are pretty good but Tom Mitchell seems like a pretty good choice to me - not sure I would take any of them over him. If the Hawks get a similar pick next year, JOM seems like a pretty good choice to me as well. The higher round picks are purely speculative every year. Sure you might land something but more often than not you won't.

The Hawks cannot go and get the next Luke Hodge (pick 1) Rough (pick 2), Franklin (pick 5), Lewis (pick 7) unless they have those picks. And they don't. If this goes as badly as you predict (hope) then the Hawks will have those picks.

So what the Hawks are doing right now is the best they can do with a limited hand. And given the Hawks still have some pretty good pieces in that list they need senior players who can go NOW, not draft picks that might come good, but possibly won't, in 2-3 years.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Hawthorn just scraped home in a number of games this year and then went out in straight sets in the finals, which sets off alarm-bells that they are about to go over the precipice and then they of course lost the top 2 from their B&F- plus another of their best 22 from the premiership wins, in Hill- so you'd have to think that if Hodge and Gibson are going to drop off further next year, they'd have to get almost as much out of JOM, Mitchell and Vickery as they did from Sam Mitchell, Lewis and Hill, to have much hope of not really dropping off. For them to improve, I reckon Clarko would have to really pull a major rabbit out of his hat (which you wouldn't put past him of course).

Going into this past season, Hawthorn understandably had a real aura about them and that possibly helped to get them over the line in some of those really close wins. Plenty of teams would have gone into games against them feeling overawed, or like they couldn't or wouldn't win, but I doubt that will be anywhere near as much the case going into next year. Most teams will now no longer fear them, or feel they can't or won't beat them, I imagine, and that is going to make it harder for Hawthorn to beat them. In recent years they would have had a lot of games won before they even started, but that's a lot less likely to be the case next year, unless they get off to a flier.

If they do get off to a flier, then it could be like business as usual and if they have a good injury run and get Roughy back and Hodge and Gibbo have one last good year each, then they could be in contention again, but on the other hand, if they get off to a slow start, get a few injuries (and I don't think they have the depth to cover them like they did in recent years), Hodge and/or Gibbo do drop off further and Roughy doesn't make much of an impact, then I could definitely see them dropping off, like say Geelong did in 2015.

As for West Coast, NN is extraordinarily important for them, so he is a huge loss. I genuinely think he makes them about a 5 goal better side (especially at home), so how they replace him is going to be the key to their fortunes. Gaining Mitch obviously offsets that to a fair degree, but they'll really need to turn a few things around to have any chance of being right up to their eyeballs in the premiership race. They seem to have a few mental demons that they'll need to get rid of ASAP, for starters.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

So what do you propose Hawthorn do right now? Hawks have sold there next two first round picks plus a bunch of middle picks for T Mitchell and JOM. That is good business.

To put it in perspective the Hawks traded 14 for T Mitchell. Pick 14 for the last 10 years is;

2006 Andrew McIntyre
2007 Jack Grimes
2008 Ayce Cordy
2009 Lewis Jetta
2010 Brodie Smith
2011 Devon Smith
2012 Aiden Corr
2013 Cameron McCarthy
2014 Jake Lever
2015 Eric Hipwood

Some of those players are pretty good but Tom Mitchell seems like a pretty good choice to me - not sure I would take any of them over him. If the Hawks get a similar pick next year, JOM seems like a pretty good choice to me as well. The higher round picks are purely speculative every year. Sure you might land something but more often than not you won't.

That's not how you assess the value of a draft pick.

You have to also take into account who teams had the opportunity to select with that pick.

If there were a bunch of awesome players available at pick 14 but a club simply chose badly, that doesn't make the pick less valuable.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

That's not how you assess the value of a draft pick.

You have to also take into account who teams had the opportunity to select with that pick.

If there were a bunch of awesome players available at pick 14 but a club simply chose badly, that doesn't make the pick less valuable.

So hindsight drafting, on a best case scenario....that's how you assess the value of a pick?

Not likely.

A 3rd Round pick is not rated on who Club X could've taken last year, it's rated on how likely it is that a club will draft a gem amongst what is available.

 

[QuietB]

That's not how you assess the value of a draft pick.

You have to also take into account who teams had the opportunity to select with that pick.

If there were a bunch of awesome players available at pick 14 but a club simply chose badly, that doesn't make the pick less valuable.

Don't you have to assess the value of a draft pick on what actually has happened? Not what could have happened?

2005 pick 14 was pretty handy 2004 has eeked out a good career. 2003 and 2002 not so much. Pick 14 in the 2001 super draft = bomb - and Brian Lake was still there at pick 71.

Fact is by pick 14 you are getting into speculative territory. The stats demonstrate that.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Mitchell was exceptional in his finals series because Kennedy, Hannebury and Parker were feeding him the ball and taking all the heat.

What a load.