West Coast, North Melbourne and Hawthorn. The rush to rebuild.

[Golumless]

I'd throw Adelaide in that list too

I know you'll miss us, but well... it was getting somewhat embarrassing being associated with you and Hawthorn.

 

[VinnieB]

Tassie isn't coming in until 2028. Drafts wont start to be seriously compromised until 2026 at the earliest.

Eagles commenced their rebuild last year. North in 2017 (that's a worry). Hawks probably 2021. All clubs have plenty of time. 2-3 down the bottom is usually enough for the strong clubs (or they avoid it altogether). They all have their concerns, but Tasmania isn't one of them.

I'd be far more worried about Tassie if I was a club who has finished their rebuild/been rebuilding already for years yet is still hanging around the middle of the ladder (Carlton, Freo, St Kilda, Essendon). They obviously have time too for success before 2026 (much more than the 3 you mentioned as it stands right now), but a couple of them are probably bottoming out towards the end of the decade after missing out again. They would be the ones truly screwed.

Tigers in massive strife.

 

[Rotayjay]

Is the decision to admit Tasmania serving as more motivation for a tankathon this year?

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Three very different Clubs

Hawthorn burnt its list to the ground and have thus far picked up some talented kids. The jury is out on Mitchell as a coach.

West Coast have been in denial about the need for a rebuild. That NicNat was re-signed until end 2024 really says a lot about the Club. They have barely started and the rest of the 20s may not be a good time.

North are in a rebuild churn. Their habit of paying overs for C Graders at trade time has cost them. As has their ability to develop talented kids picked up in the draft.

 

[VinnieB]

Fact is there's 4 more drafts. Add to that mid season drafts, and free agency, and I think people are overreacting.

It also seems the AFL have learnt that a new team needs experienced players rather than a stack of high draft picks.
If anything, the stronger clubs get stronger. There will be plenty of kids drafted to Tasmania that will be looking to get out.

 

[Golumless]

Fact is there's 4 more drafts. Add to that mid season drafts, and free agency, and I think people are overreacting.

It also seems the AFL have learnt that a new team needs experienced players rather than a stack of high draft picks.
If anything, the stronger clubs get stronger. There will be plenty of kids drafted to Tasmania that will be looking to get out.

The wanting to get out part is overblown. Tassie is a nice place and it's football mad enough there will be enough off-field opportunities for anyone who does well. No difference to Adelaide or Perth in that sense. The big issue with a lot of high draft picks is every club sees those players are gettable, which screws your cap situation up if you're not careful. Especially when you keep the wrong players and you are almost guaranteed to do so with how much you're fighting off interest.

 

[Makeshift Park]

For North, I think we'll naturally draft sufficient elite talent to enter a "finals contender" phase after the next two drafts.

The more difficult challenge is how we become consistently competitive in the meantime.

We really need to trade in another 5 or 6 good solid role players over the next 18 months.

Players like Turner and Hall need to be replaced. Players like McDonald, Scott, Taylor, and Greenwood need to become depth.

Half a dozen players like Miles Bergman, James Jordon, and Jake Riccardi are essentially what we need to be consistently competitive.

It should be an 18 month project, completed 2 years before Tassie starts distorting the draft. But who knows!

 

[JackOutback]

Three very different Clubs

Hawthorn burnt its list to the ground and have thus far picked up some talented kids. The jury is out on Mitchell as a coach.

West Coast have been in denial about the need for a rebuild. That NicNat was re-signed until end 2024 really says a lot about the Club. They have barely started and the rest of the 20s may not be a good time.

North are in a rebuild churn. Their habit of paying overs for C Graders at trade time has cost them. As has their ability to develop talented kids picked up in the draft.

Think the bolded is overblown. The Eagles brought in Chesser, Bazzo and Hough in 2021, then Ginbey, Hewitt and Long in 2022. That's six young players, at least four of whom have shown a bit already. Plus, they'll load up again this year, which completes a fairly substantial regeneration. Yes, they held on to some senior players, initially for a last roll of the dice that didn't pan out, but now as much for mentoring and not to cut too deep. The gap is in that 22-26 age bracket and it's a big problem, but that can also be addressed with a few low value trades this year and next.

 

[Makeshift Park]

The gap is in that 22-26 age bracket and it's a big problem, but that can also be addressed with a few low value trades this year and next.

Interesting to contrast that to North, where its the absence of solid players in the 26-30 "prime age" bracket that's been our big problem.

Its likely we'll only have McDonald, Corr and Tucker on our books in that demographic next year.

 

[VinnieB]

The wanting to get out part is overblown. Tassie is a nice place and it's football mad enough there will be enough off-field opportunities for anyone who does well. No difference to Adelaide or Perth in that sense. The big issue with a lot of high draft picks is every club sees those players are gettable, which screws your cap situation up if you're not careful. Especially when you keep the wrong players and you are almost guaranteed to do so with how much you're fighting off interest.

We will have to disagree on this.
The chances of a Tassie team have early success is very slim.

We have seen players from GWS and GC stream out of the club. Obviously not all, but still very good players.
The prospect of playing in front of big crowds, social networks, opportunities outside footy, partners etc etc and not to mention Tasmania is winter is bloody cold and miserable. Hobart has a population fo 250,000 people.

Why would a good young player stay if he is being courted by a big club?

Guys like Prestia, Caddy, Lynch, May are examples of the need to leave in order to be a premiership player.
The reality is if you play for Tasmania in the 1st few years, the chances are extremely slim that you will be a premiership player, and possibly may not even experience finals footy in your career.

 

[SSSSSS]

I think Adelaide are 1 or 2 more good drafts (as in top 10 picks/trading picks for established players) before becoming a legitimate top 4 threat. Still a very young list so consistency is going to be an issue (see Freo's downturn this year after a blistering 2022).

Should be the finished article before compromised drafts.

Hawthorn and Eagles you would think should be just about ready to go by 2025-2026. Some good spread of talent in both sides and 50+ games will make a big difference. Should be starting to enter the 8 around this point. Hawks and Eagles also have very good developmental pathways for their players. Always seem to make the best of late picks.

North are the big worry IMO. They've been rebuilding for a while but it looks like they might be at ground zero again. Wouldn't surprise me if Clarkson culls plenty at the end of the year. North's development has been laughable in comparison.

I'd be worried if I was a Richmond supporter and as much as everyone has kept saying the cliff is coming for Geelong for the last 5 years, if it does finally dawn soon it is going to come at a terrible time for them.

 

[VinnieB]

Think the bolded is overblown. The Eagles brought in Chesser, Bazzo and Hough in 2021, then Ginbey, Hewitt and Long in 2022. That's six young players, at least four of whom have shown a bit already. Plus, they'll load up again this year, which completes a fairly substantial regeneration. Yes, they held on to some senior players, initially for a last roll of the dice that didn't pan out, but now as much for mentoring and not to cut too deep. The gap is in that 22-26 age bracket and it's a big problem, but that can also be addressed with a few low value trades this year and next.

Every club drafts a minimum 3 players from the national draft. So, drafting 6 kids over 2 drafts is no different to every other club.
I know it's still early days, but saying at least 4 of the 6 you have listed have 'shown a bit' already I must have missed it.

 

[VinnieB]

I think Adelaide are 1 or 2 more good drafts (as in top 10 picks/trading picks for established players) before becoming a legitimate top 4 threat. Still a very young list so consistency is going to be an issue (see Freo's downturn this year after a blistering 2022).

Should be the finished article before compromised drafts.

Hawthorn and Eagles you would think should be just about ready to go by 2025-2026. Some good spread of talent in both sides and 50+ games will make a big difference. Should be starting to enter the 8 around this point. Hawks and Eagles also have very good developmental pathways for their players. Always seem to make the best of late picks.

North are the big worry IMO. They've been rebuilding for a while but it looks like they might be at ground zero again. Wouldn't surprise me if Clarkson culls plenty at the end of the year. North's development has been laughable in comparison.

I'd be worried if I was a Richmond supporter and as much as everyone has kept saying the cliff is coming for Geelong for the last 5 years, if it does finally dawn soon it is going to come at a terrible time for them.

I doubt Geelong has an issue. They continue to pick up players like Bruhn and Oliver, and have also done very well out of picks in the 20s+.
Even against Richmond with about 9 players out, they had kids who I was surprised to see that looked like they could really play.

Bruhn, Holmes, Close, Knevitt, Clark, DeKonig, Esava, Stengle, Miers, J Henry, O Henry, Simpson, Z Guthrie could mostly be in their 23.

I don't think North, West Coast or Hawthorn have as good a bunch of kids 24 and under.

 

[Cleric]

I think Adelaide are 1 or 2 more good drafts (as in top 10 picks/trading picks for established players) before becoming a legitimate top 4 threat. Still a very young list so consistency is going to be an issue (see Freo's downturn this year after a blistering 2022).

Should be the finished article before compromised drafts.

Hawthorn and Eagles you would think should be just about ready to go by 2025-2026. Some good spread of talent in both sides and 50+ games will make a big difference. Should be starting to enter the 8 around this point. Hawks and Eagles also have very good developmental pathways for their players. Always seem to make the best of late picks.

North are the big worry IMO. They've been rebuilding for a while but it looks like they might be at ground zero again. Wouldn't surprise me if Clarkson culls plenty at the end of the year. North's development has been laughable in comparison.

I'd be worried if I was a Richmond supporter and as much as everyone has kept saying the cliff is coming for Geelong for the last 5 years, if it does finally dawn soon it is going to come at a terrible time for them.

We have a couple of potential issues.
ATM we have a decent young backline, but there is the real threat that we could lose one or both of Doedee and Worrell. After losing McAsey this year, we then are in a really poor position in our defence.

We really rely on Smith to drive us from defence into attack. He is at the end of his career, and with Seedsman finishing up, we are going to lack the rebounding defender with a long raking kick into attack. Sure Dawson can go back, but we need him in the midfield.

Then we just lack a couple of legit big line breaking mids in the Bont mold.

 

[SSSSSS]

I doubt Geelong has an issue. They continue to pick up players like Bruhn and Oliver, and have also done very well out of picks in the 20s+.
Even against Richmond with about 9 players out, they had kids who I was surprised to see that looked like they could really play.

Bruhn, Holmes, Close, Knevitt, Clark, DeKonig, Esava, Stengle, Miers, J Henry, O Henry, Simpson, Z Guthrie could mostly be in their 23.

I don't think North, West Coast or Hawthorn have as good a bunch of kids 24 and under.

That list of players for Geelong doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Stengle is a gun. Miers, Close, Holmes, J Henry, Z Guthrie and SDK are good best 22 contributors. Esava is looking like he might make that list but he's been a deadset spud for a long time so I want to see him at this level for the season.

The rest haven't done anything yet to suggest they can become match winners let alone best 22 contributors. They are young and have shown flashes.

There are plenty of North/WCE/Hawthorn players under 24 that I would take before those Geelong players, no disrespect to them. They are playing well in a strong system but so were the likes of limited players like Langford, Daniel Howe, Morrison etc when they were playing with Hodge, Lewis, Burgoyne and Mitchell.

 

[SSSSSS]

We have a couple of potential issues.
ATM we have a decent young backline, but there is the real threat that we could lose one or both of Doedee and Worrell. After losing McAsey this year, we then are in a really poor position in our defence.

We really rely on Smith to drive us from defence into attack. He is at the end of his career, and with Seedsman finishing up, we are going to lack the rebounding defender with a long raking kick into attack. Sure Dawson can go back, but we need him in the midfield.

Then we just lack a couple of legit big line breaking mids in the Bont mold.

My only query with Adelaide is how they will replace Smith, Sloane and Laird who are on the tail end of their careers. I think you will have enough coverage for Tex.

All three are still important contributors, arguably in your bests week in week out (maybe with the exception of Sloane). Moving Dawson back to cover Smith would be a mistake IMO as he is the dynamic midfielder the Crowbots have been crying out for decades (I still think you need another mid who has his damaging ability - maybe Rachele moves into this spot).

It's why I think the Crows are still 2 drafts + trade/FA period away from being a flag contender. Have a very good foundation to build off but need some finishing touches to really compete with the best.

 

[JackOutback]

Every club drafts a minimum 3 players from the national draft. So, drafting 6 kids over 2 drafts is no different to every other club.
I know it's still early days, but saying at least 4 of the 6 you have listed have 'shown a bit' already I must have missed it.

We drafted more than six, I named the six that either have shown a bit already or should be expected to. And it's not a surprise you might have missed it, even Eagles fans are finding it hard to pay attention this season. But Reuben Ginbey has shown the most of the lot and has a Rising Star nomination, and Noah Long looks good despite still looking like a 12-year-old. Rhett Bazzo and Brady Hough both played more than 10 games each last year but have been affected by tragedy and injury respectively this season.

Chesser and Hewitt are both high picks that haven't played as much because of injury.

Add one or two more high draft picks this year and the base is there. But the club does need to be able to attract some talent in that 22-26 age group.

 

[VinnieB]

Yes I understand that, and I agree Ginbey looks great. But the others (excl Hough), haven’t really played much footy to show what they can do. Whether it be injury, tragedy or for whatever reason, the jury is still out on those recruited in the 2021 draft

 

[VinnieB]

My only query with Adelaide is how they will replace Smith, Sloane and Laird who are on the tail end of their careers. I think you will have enough coverage for Tex.

All three are still important contributors, arguably in your bests week in week out (maybe with the exception of Sloane). Moving Dawson back to cover Smith would be a mistake IMO as he is the dynamic midfielder the Crowbots have been crying out for decades (I still think you need another mid who has his damaging ability - maybe Rachele moves into this spot).

It's why I think the Crows are still 2 drafts + trade/FA period away from being a flag contender. Have a very good foundation to build off but need some finishing touches to really compete with the best.

Hawks fans always use the ‘best players are old’ view when it comes to other clubs, given their own experienced players are ordinary.

You can see the improvement in the kids each week. Rachele will play more midfield minutes and easily resolve one of them. Solito is getting better each week. Sloane really has been on decline for a couple of years.

It’s not simply the older heads who are driving Adelaide. It’s actually the quality and improvement in the kids that’s most exciting and have them as a potential top 4-6 team. The luxury of a Laird and Smith is that it enables the other kids to develop well without too much pressure placed on them early. It’s a quality rebuild and they are fortunate to have quality senior players to enable it.

And they’ll just get better bringing in more talent each year and free agents.

 

[SSSSSS]

Hawks fans always use the ‘best players are old’ view when it comes to other clubs, given their own experienced players are ordinary.

You can see the improvement in the kids each week. Rachele will play more midfield minutes and easily resolve one of them. Solito is getting better each week. Sloane really has been on decline for a couple of years.

It’s not simply the older heads who are driving Adelaide. It’s actually the quality and improvement in the kids that’s most exciting and have them as a potential top 4-6 team. The luxury of a Laird and Smith is that it enables the other kids to develop well without too much pressure placed on them early. It’s a quality rebuild and they are fortunate to have quality senior players to enable it.

And they’ll just get better bringing in more talent each year and free agents.

I've been on the Crows bandwagon for a while. Haven't said an ill word about their kids for the last two seasons who are great (underrated IMO, only starting to get recognition this year).

I don't think it's unfair to the Crows to suggest that their rise up the ladder this year has been both due to the increased contribution of the kids but also a lot of the older heads still playing top level footy. Cleric made a very good point re: their movement off half back is still primarily driven by Smith who is one of their most experienced players. Tex is still hitting a 3 goal per game average and will be making the jobs a lot easier for Fogarty/TT as well as Rankine/Rachele to feed off. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Crows rise up has come about as a result of injecting Dawson into their midfield (which was quite vanilla and lackluster) and Sloane coming back to play after a disappointing 2022 and getting back into the midfield rotation.

They still need a few more drafts to slowly replace the outgoing talent at which point the younger kids will be senior players and hopefully they too will be bolstered by the youth coming in to fill those gaps.

I think Tex has natural coverage with TT taking over at some point. Just need to find a Smith, Sloane and Laird replacement. Their existing players can step up in this regard (I think Pedlar can play the Sloane role) but then they still have to find players to replace them.

Still 1-2 years away from competing at the pointy end but hopefully close to finals this year + next and top 4 the year after.

To me what is surprising is with the Eagles still having so much of the older core. I can see them bouncing back up the ladder quickly if they can get all of their players fit and firing. Eagles are too good on paper to be so poor at the moment.

 

[Kappa]

If you’re rebuilding, now is the time to do it. Starting in 3/4 years time is when you’re screwed.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

For me this is the worst list WCE has ever had worst than the ken Judge years.
What's scary for me is we will be worst next year than this year

Our win/loss record over last two years is horrible next year we may not win a game

 

[Eastern Rangers]

WC are one draft in and need an entire list rebuild, not just a few draft top up like previous seasons. Finals before 2026 would be a miracle and the new Tassie team might be the difference between a decent tilt or a few finals and bust. They also need to have a coup at board level and back room cleanout before it really begins. That is going to add a few extra years to the pain.

Richmond + Geelong (Maybe this time) seem to be the biggest fallers in the next few years and will be right in the middle of the Tassie team drain on talent.

Good god. If we're down for that long we'll assemble one hell of a list.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Every club drafts a minimum 3 players from the national draft. So, drafting 6 kids over 2 drafts is no different to every other club.
I know it's still early days, but saying at least 4 of the 6 you have listed have 'shown a bit' already I must have missed it.

He simply mentioned the players who have debuted. West Coast drafted 7 players across both drafts last year.

West Coast has 2 NGA academy prospects as well. Probably the best we've had since the program began and next year we've got another one.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Crankyhawk]

I know you'll miss us, but well... it was getting somewhat embarrassing being associated with you and Hawthorn.

Thats fair. And FWIW I picked Adelaide in the original thread too. Winning!