Preview Western Bulldogs Brownlow Votes & Discussion

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Aug 24, 2012
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Thought I'd get a discussion thread going for tonight's Brownlow, as well as a summary of the likely vote getters from the Western Bulldogs, round by round. I'll keep the thread updated throughout the night with the votes our players have received and in which rounds.

Chances

Round 1 vs Brisbane; W: 127-59
Summary: Only one thing is certain in round 1: the 'Dogs will dominate the votes after a comprehensive victory over NAB Cup champions the Lions. Ayce Cordy kicked two goals - a pretty good indicator that we dominated. There are a lot of vote chances for this round and it's likely to be a battle between several players. Ryan Griffen kicked two goals, laid six tackles and had 27 disposals, running at a disposal efficiency of 70.4%. Shaun Higgins kicked three goals, distributed the ball inside 50 ten times, took eight marks and had 22 disposals. Tom Liberatore began what would be his best season to date with a team-high 28 disposals at 75% disposal efficiency, nine tackles, eleven clearances and six inside 50s. Brett Goodes was fantastic in his first AFL match, gathering 24 possessions and disposing of the ball efficiently 87.5% of the time. Robert Murphy was quite good up forward, kicking an incredible goal, earning 16 disposals, six marks and five inside 50s. Wilbur dominated Longer, winning 34 hitouts, five clearances, three inside 50s and four contested marks, as well as 18 disposals.

My verdict:
1 vote: W. Minson
2 votes: T. Liberatore
3 votes: R. Griffen

Higgins, Murphy and Goodes will likely come into the equation as well. Tom Rockliff from the Lions may steal votes given his 33 disposal effort, but given the domination by the Dogs I'd be surprised.


Round 2 vs Fremantle; L: 78-106
Summary: "Dockers drag Bulldogs back to earth" read the headline - and they were right. After a very strong opening round win, our first quarter in this match was deplorable, entering the quarter time break 31 points down. From then on we conducted ourselves quite well, trimming the margin by three points by the final siren - however, we were never in the game and it's unlikely to see us poll. If we do, Tom Liberatore (28 D, 78.6% DE, 12 C, 11 T), Adam Cooney (31 D, 71% DE, 5 M, 4 C, 1 G), Clay Smith (21 D, 71.4% DE, 7 M, 5 T, 1 G) or Will Minson (48 HO, 16 D, 7 C) are likely to be the recipients.

My verdict:
1 vote: T. Liberatore
2 votes: M. Walters
3 votes: N. Fyfe

The 1 vote will likely go to Liberatore, McPharlin, Mzungu or Pavlich. The two and three votes should be relatively set.


Round 3 vs Richmond; L: 68-135
Summary: Move along, nothing to see here. Too slow, too young, too much of a gulf in class. Would rather not dwell on this match at all. Ryan Griffen - with 30 disposals, eight clearances, one goal and six inside 50s - is likely to be our only polling hope, but even hopes of that are relatively slim in my opinion.

My verdict:
1 vote: B. Deledio
2 votes: T. Cotchin
3 votes: D. Martin

Perhaps plan to go get a drink when this round's votes are called out.


Round 4 vs Adelaide; L: 28-80
Summary: If you watched us in round 1, you wouldn't have believed that we would score only four goals in round 4. It was wet, but that's a poor excuse - it was one of our worst games of the season and our chances of polling here would be quite slim if not for a return to form by Adam Cooney. One of the best on the ground, Cooney gathered 30 disposals (13 contested), ten clearances, four tackles and two goals. Tom Liberatore was again lively with 33 disposals, eight clearances and seven tackles, while Goodes (27 D, 6 M, 8 R50) and Minson (47 HO, 10 D, 5 T) were reasonable.

My verdict:
1 vote: A. Cooney
2 votes: R. Douglas
3 votes: P. Dangerfield

If Cooney doesn't poll here it's unlikely anybody will. Other challengers include Rory Sloane and Scott Thompson.


Round 5 vs Geelong; L: 86-107
Summary: Despite falling to the Cats by 21 points, it was a much improved performance from the Dogs - and boy did we need it after the three-game lull we experienced after the round one win. A flurry of goals by Geelong in a half-hour period split between the first and second quarters had our chances looking bleak, however, we held on and conducted ourselves very reasonably from then on, especially in the final quarter - where we held Geelong goalless. Despite a very respectable team effort, however, we are unlikely to poll here. Matthew Boyd (29 D, 5 M, 6 T), Daniel Cross (27 D, 8 M, 4 T) and Liam Jones (12 D, 6 M, 4 G) are probably our only (slim) chances.

My verdict:
1 vote: H. Taylor
2 votes: S. Motlop
3 votes: S. Johnson

Tough to pick the votes for this one, but very much doubt we will poll.



Round 6 vs West Coast; L: 67-137
Summary: Another of our most disappointing efforts for the year - but at least in this one we scored more than four goals. The Eagles simply outclassed us, and one of the only positives to come out of it was a brilliant (and flukey) dribble kick from the Messiah Jakey Stringer - surely he gets a vote just for that, right? Very, very unlikely we'll pick up any votes here, but if we do, Clay Smith - 26 disposals, three marks, six clearances, four tackles and seven inside 50s - is the most likely recipient.

My verdict:
1 vote: J. Kennedy
2 votes: J. Darling
3 votes: M. Priddis

Very unlikely anybody polls here. Masten, Selwood and Shuey likely ahead of any of our players in addition to the three already mentioned.


Round 7 vs North Melbourne; L: 97-151
Summary: Perhaps my most disappointing game of 2013 with the Melbourne game, but for completely different reasons. We weren't out of this one until the fourth quarter - we were in front halfway through the third quarter until North Melbourne piled on twelve goals to four. Despite the fourth quarter, we're a chance to poll here through Ryan Griffen, who had 33 disposals, six marks, nine clearances, four tackles and nine inside 50s. Bob Murphy (18 D, 7 M, 5 T, 7 I50, 2 G) and Will Minson (38 HO, 13 D, 5 C, 1 G) were in our bests but would require something strange to happen to poll.

My verdict:
1 vote: J. Ziebell
2 votes: R. Griffen
3 votes: M. Daw


Round 8 vs Gold Coast; L: 61-93
Summary: Another one I'd rather forget about. Not a good match by any stretch - especially in the third quarter, where the Suns piled on seven goals to one. Will Minson, with 40 hitouts, five marks, 16 disposals and four tackles, is likely our only chance here. Adam Cooney is also a chance, with 31 disposals, six marks and four clearances, but it's unlikely.

My verdict:
1 vote: R. Thompson
2 votes: J. O'Meara
3 votes: G. Ablett

Another that isn't easy to pick, however, I doubt we'll feature.


Round 9 vs St. Kilda; W: 110-101
Summary: Oh boy this win felt good. So, so good. It was Koby's breakout game and it seemed like he was everywhere - including right on top of Clinton Jones. Cop that. He had 31 disposals, eight marks, four clearances, four tackles, five inside 50s and three goals. Griffen was also lively, having 30 disposals, nine clearances, two goals and eleven inside 50s, as was big Wilbur, who won a massive 46 hitouts, three clearances and 13 disposals. Boyd was our biggest ball winner (38 D, 7 C, 7 T, 9 I50), and Johannisen showed what he is capable of (23 D, 91.3% DE, 8 M, 3 R50, 4 I50).

My verdict:
1 vote: M. Boyd
2 votes: R. Griffen
3 votes: K. Stevens

Nick Riewoldt could steal a vote here, but I can't see any other Saint polling. Stevens will get points, but perhaps not the three he deserves. Should be a Dog-filled round, however.


Round 10 vs Port Adelaide; W: 67-58
Summary: It was a bittersweet win for us, watching Williams dislocate his shoulder and Koby Stevens hobble around like a lame horse parked at full forward. It was a scrappy win, but one that we were glad to have nonetheless, especially considering our dominance in the third quarter. Ryan Griffen has to be a sure thing for the three votes here, given his 40 disposal, four mark, eight clearance, four rebound 50, eight inside 50 and one goal performance. Will Minson won an incredible 57 hitouts and Libba was amongst it with 35 disposals, 13 clearances and four tackles. Giansiracusa was a spark after Williams went off, kicking two goals as well as setting up two others, and earning 21 disposals and four tackles.

My verdict:
1 vote: T. Liberatore
2 votes: D. Giansiracusa
3 votes: R. Griffen

Despite the close scoreline, the Dogs should dominate this round on the scoresheets.


Round 11 - BYE


Round 12 vs Collingwood; L: 65-99
Summary: It was a game of two halves, with Collingwood jumping out of the blocks and opening up a 53 point lead at the first break. Past that, however, we put in a decent performance and didn't give in as we would have last year. Hard to see us polling here. Ryan Griffen (32 D, 2 M, 7 T, 1 G), Bob Murphy (28 D, 8 M, 1 G) and Matthew Boyd (32 D, 6 M, 5 C, 5 I50) are likely our only hopes.

My verdict:
1 vote: T. Cloke
2 votes: S. Pendlebury
3 votes: D. Swan

Harry O'Brien a chance to poll, but I expect the above three to be those who feature in the votes. Little to no chance of Doggies representation here unfortunately.


Round 13 vs Richmond; L: 61-121
Summary: Well...it was better than last time? Again, Richmond's speedy ball movement and class shone through as we had very little chance to make an impact. Ryan Griffen (38 D, 7 M, 6 C, 5 R50, 8 I50, 1 G) will probably pick up a vote or two, but past that not many have a chance. Matthew Boyd perhaps the only other opportunity here (34 D, 10 M, 6 C, 9 T, 6 I50).

My verdict:
1 vote: S. Grigg
2 votes: R. Griffen
3 votes: D. Martin

Griffen should poll (and is a slim chance at the three votes), but this round will be dominated by Tigers. Conca, Edwards and Houli also chances to take votes.


Round 14 vs Melbourne; L: 100-103
Summary: This match never happened and anybody who suggests differently is lying. We trailed by a game-high 39 points at three-quarter time, and despite kicking the final seven goals of the game, just fell short. Tom Liberatore dominated with 36 disposals, six marks, twelve clearances, two rebound 50s, nine tackles, eleven inside 50s and two goal assists, and should be a certainty for the three votes. Griffen - 31 disposals, four marks, six clearances, seven tackles, five inside 50s and three goals - worked hard all day and Will Minson dominated the ruck with 51 disposals.

My verdict:
1 vote: J. Watts
2 votes: D. Terlich
3 votes: T. Liberatore

Liberatore should take the cake this round, while the other votes are anybody's guess. Griffen could certainly pinch a couple of votes as well.


Round 15 vs GWS; W: 87-83
Summary: Arguably our last 'deplorable game' for the year - but we can argue that we were put off by the non-functional clock, right? We were poor all day, wasting opportunities and letting GWS do what they wished, almost giving away a win most of us had penciled in prior to the beginning of the year. Michael Talia had a hell of a game, earning 32 disposals at 78.1% efficiency, five marks, one clearance, two tackles and five one-percenters. Brett Goodes was also in our best with 25 disposals, ten marks, four rebound 50s and four inside 50s. Adam Cooney played a solid game, with 26 disposals, six clearances and one goal.

My verdict:
1 vote: D. Shiel
2 votes: A. Cooney
3 votes: M. Talia

Goodes could certainly come into the equation here, but I expect the above to be relatively close.


Round 16 vs Essendon; L: 90-121
Summary: The Bombers got out to a very quick start, kicking the first six goals of the game before we steadied the ship and managed to keep the game within reach for much of it. While we couldn't quite get over the line, it was an impressive performance in parts, with Hrovat providing a highlight that was later disallowed. Unlikely we'll poll here but stranger things have happened. Liberatore will again be our biggest chance, earning 33 disposals, four marks, eleven clearances, six tackles, six inside 50s and a goal, while Cooney did no harm to his chances with 29 disposals, five marks, three clearances, give tackles and two inside 50s. Koby Stevens (29 D, 3 M, 3 C, 4 T, 6 I50, 1 G), Nathan Hrovat (25 D, 8 M, 4 C, 4 T, 4 I50), Brett Goodes (27 D, 4 M, 8 R50, 2 T, 2 I50, 1 G) and Ryan Griffen (28 D, 2 M, 6 C, 6 T, 5 I50) are outside chances.

My verdict:
1 vote: T. Liberatore
2 votes: D. Heppell
3 votes: J. Winderlich

Liberatore our only chance here, I'd have thought. Winderlich should take the 3 votes. Other vote challengers include Dempsey, Stanton and Bellchambers.


Round 17 vs Hawthorn; L: 76-95
Summary: Another game played in patches. It looked a blowout halfway through the final quarter, with the Hawks opening up a 43-point lead before we kicked an unanswered four goals in a row. Ryan Griffen surely takes out the three votes here despite the score, dominating with 37 disposals, three marks, five clearances, two tackles, five inside 50s and two goals. Other chances include Adam Cooney (33 D, 6 M, 4 C, 6 T, 4 I50) and Tom Liberatore (28 D, 4 M, 5 C, 5 T).

My verdict:
1 vote: J. Lewis
2 votes: I. Smith
3 votes: R. Griffen

Can't see anybody beating Griff to the three votes, however, Cooney could certainly steal a vote. Isaac Smith Griff's closest competitor for the three.


Round 18 vs West Coast; W: 111-89
Summary: REVENGE! It feels good. Backed up a valiant effort from the previous two rounds to get the win at Etihad. The Dogs should dominate the votes here, with a wide range of chances. Tom Liberatore (29 D, 7 M, 3 C, 12 T, 4 I50), Luke Dahlhaus (29 D, 3 M, 2 C, 6 T, 7 I50, 4 G), Will Minson (24 D, 27 HO, 4 M, 8 C, 2 I50, 4 T), Matthew Boyd (26 D, 8 M, 3 C, 3 T, 1 G), Ryan Griffen (30 D, 5 M, 7 C, 6 T, 3 I50), Bob Murphy (29 D, 6 R50, 7 1%, 3 I50, 1 G) and Adam Cooney (30 D, 4 M, 5 C, 2 T, 3 I50, 1 G) are all chances at the votes.

My verdict:
1 vote: L. Dahlhaus
2 votes: R. Griffen
3 votes: A. Cooney

A very tough one to pick and I wouldn't be surprised if the above is completely wrong. Selwood and Gaff the Doggies' biggest challengers here, but I think we'll take home the six votes.


Round 19 vs Sydney; L: 99-134
Summary: The scoreboard isn't great reading, however, if not for a period of ten or so minutes split between the third and fourth quarters, it may have presented much more nicely. Ryan Griffen was very good with 41 disposals, three marks, ten clearances, six tackles and six inside 50s, while Mitch Wallis was solid with 29 disposals, three rebound 50s, thirteen tackles and one inside 50. Tom Liberatore (33 D, 3 M, 13 C, 9 T, 5 I50) and Daniel Cross (32 D, 4 M, 6 C, 5 T, 4 I50) round out our vote chances.

My verdict:
1 vote: T. Liberatore
2 votes: R. Griffen
3 votes: K. Jack

Think Kieran Jack is a certainty to take the three votes, but Griffen and Liberatore/Wallis should round out the votes. Their biggest competitors are likely Shane Mumford and Kurt Tippett.


Round 20 vs Carlton; W: 117-89
Summary: One of our biggest wins, we took it to semi finalist Carlton all game and dominated the second and fourth quarters. It was a great game for a lot of Bulldogs, with Ryan Griffen the pick of the lot: he gathered 34 disposals, three marks, seven clearances, seven tackles and eight inside 50s. Jarrad Grant had a great game with 24 disposals, seven marks, two clearances, three tackles, four inside 50s and four goals, while Luke Dahlhaus continued his form with a 24 disposal, eleven tackle, two inside 50, two goal game. Will Minson (18 D, 29 HO, 9 C, 8 T), Adam Cooney (31 D, 3 M, 4 C, 3 R50, 3 I50, 1 G) and Tom Liberatore (28 D, 4 M, 10 C, 3 R50, 4 T) also had good games.

My verdict:
1 vote: A. Cooney
2 votes: J. Grant
3 votes: R. Griffen

Fairly straightforward I'd have thought, however, Minson, Dahlhaus and Liberatore could push.


Round 21 vs Adelaide; W: 131-114
Summary: A much-improved performance compared to our first match against Adelaide saw us take home our second win on the trot thanks to a massive third and fourth quarter. Tory Dickson kicked a career-high six goals to go along with his 17 disposals, five marks, four tackles and two inside 50s. The usual suspects, Ryan Griffen (26 D, 5 M, 4 C, 3 T, 6 I50) and Tom Liberatore (30 D, 3 M, 8 C, 5 R50, 5 T, 4 I50) both had very solid games, while Daniel Cross (25 D, 8 M, 3 R50, 4 T, 1 G), Adam Cooney (23 D, 9 M, 4 I50, 2 G) and Robert Murphy (27 D, 6 M, 6 R50, 2 I50) were all good as well.

My verdict:
1 vote: R. Griffen
2 votes: T. Dickson
3 votes: T. Liberatore

Dickson is hard to place, but should get in the votes. I expect Griff, Libba and Dickson to be the three who get votes, however, their placement is arguable.


Round 22 vs Brisbane; L: 93-100
Summary: Brisbane took the four points in a massive contrast to the match in round 1, the Lions taking a 50-point win into the half-time break. We did fight back in the back half, but just fell short. Liberatore will likely be the only Dog to score votes, with a solid 27 disposal, 14 clearance, six tackle, six inside 50 game. Matthew Boyd - 27 D, 4 M, 5 C, 4 T - is also a chance, as are Luke Dahlhaus (20 D, 2 M, 2 C, 3 T, 3 G) and Ryan Griffen (23 D, 7 C, 4 T, 5 I50).

My verdict:
1 vote: M. Leuenberger
2 votes: T. Liberatore
3 votes: T. Rockliff

The votes for this are fairly clear, in my opinion. Rockliff is a definite 3 vote-getter, while Liberatore should get two votes. The single vote could go to a range of individuals including Leuenberger, Zorko, Dahlhaus or Griffen.


Round 23 vs Melbourne; W: 107-87
Summary: It wasn't convincing at all, but at least we got the win and didn't go down 2-0 to the Dees. The Dogs opened up a 43 point lead at the half before trailing off and allowed Melbourne to get a bit too close for comfort. Libba will surely take home three votes this round, with a massive 36 disposal, three mark, twelve clearance, eleven tackle and four inside 50 game. Wilbur will get a much-deserved vote, dominating the hitouts with 48, as well as 22 disposals, five clearances, three tackles, three inside 50s and one goal. Other chances include Boyd (40 D, 8 M, 9 C, 4 R50, 1 T, 5 I50), Cooney (30 D, 10 M, 2 C, 3 T, 2 I50, 2 G) and Murphy (29 D, 9 M, 4 R50, 3 I50).

My verdict:
1 vote: M. Boyd
2 votes: W. Minson
3 votes: T. Liberatore

Very difficult to place, but we should get the six votes without too much trouble. Grimes likely to be the closest Melbourne player to votes.


Estimated Votes
R. Griffen - 23
T. Liberatore - 17
A. Cooney - 7
W. Minson - 3

M. Talia - 3
K. Stevens - 3
J. Grant - 2
T. Dickson - 2
D. Giansiracusa - 2
M. Boyd - 2
L. Dahlhaus - 1


Final Rankings Based on 2012 Scores

=7th: R. Griffen
11th: T. Liberatore
=53rd: A. Cooney
=101st: W. Minson, M. Talia, K. Stevens
=134th: J. Grant, T. Dickson, D. Giansiracusa, M. Boyd
=174th: L. Dahlhaus
 
Got an email from sportsbet about a no-strings attached $10 free bet. Put it on Griffen at 51-1. Thought that was quite generous odds considering there's at least 5 games he's going to poll 3 votes, as well as multiple 2's & 1's even in losing sides
 

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  • #7
All rounds done along with the total expected votes for our players, and their projected rankings based on last year's final scores. :)

Ablett deserves to win it but I think it'll go to Selwood unfortunately. Mitchell a chance too, always polls well. Past Doggies players I'll be going for Ablett and Mitchell.
 
Libba was meant to go on holidays overseas this week, but the AFL told him to stay for the count. Hopefully he gets a few vots.
 
Top five predictions guys? Closest wins a jar* of nothing. :)

1. Selwood :thumbsdown:
2. Mitchell
3. Ablett
4. Swan
5. Jack & Pendlebury


*Jar may not exist

1. Ablett
1. Swan
3. Selwood
4. Fyfe*
5. Mitchell
 
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  • #12
1. Ablett
1. Swan
3. Selwood
4. Fyfe*
5. Mitchell
Forgot about Fyfe. Will go with:
1. Selwood
2. Mitchell
3. Ablett
4. Fyfe
5. Swan

Actually think Fyfe could top the votes. Hasn't had an incredible year, but he's the best Fremantle midfielder and Freo's game style restricts the polling by the opposition.
 

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I might as well add my annual diatribe...

The Brownlow in the last 20 years has become an award for the best midielder from a top 8 side. Anyone else is irrelevant and no chance, unless they are a once-in-a-generation freak like Gary Ablett Jr.

2012 - Jobe Watson (mf - Ess - 11th)*
2011 - Dane Swan (mf - Coll - 1st)
2010 - Chris Judd (mf - Carl - 8th)
2009 - Gary Ablett (mf- Gee -2nd)
2008 - Adam Cooney (mf - WB - 3rd)
2007 - James Bartel (mf - Gee - 1st)
2006 - Adam Goodes (mf/ruck - Syd - 4th)
2005 - Ben Cousins (mf - WCE - 2nd)
2004 - Chris Judd (mf - WCE - 7th)
2003 - Mark Ricciuto (mf - Adel - 6th)
- Nathan Buckley (mf - Coll - 2nd)
- Adam Goodes (mf - Syd - 4th)
2002 - Simon Black (mf - Bris - 2nd)
2001 - Jason Akermanis (mf - Bris - 2nd)
2000 - Shane Woewodin (mf - Melb - 3rd)
1999 - Shane Crawford (mf - Haw - 9th)
1998 - Robert Harvey (mf - StK - 6th)
1997 - Robert Harvey (mf - StK - 1st) burgled from a non-midfielder, Chris Grant
1996 - Michael Voss (mf - Bris - 3rd)
- James Hird (mf - Ess - 6th)
1995 - Paul Kelly (mf - Syd - 12th)
1994 - Greg Williams (mf - Carl - 2nd)

* Given what we now know about Essendon's 2012 some doubt must be cast on the validity of this award, fine player though Watson is.

My view: Gary Ablett should be a monty - he's the best player in the comp by a fair margin - but the way the votes are awarded these days (i.e. you are unlikely to get 3 votes if your side loses) somebody like Mitchell could well win it.
 
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Shocked Griffen didn't get a vote. I thought he was BOG.
As did I. Well and truly better than Murph imo. Higgins deserved the votes more than Murph too I think.

Perhaps they decided his goal was worth 2 votes by itself? :)
 

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