What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

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NoobPie

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#3
Would need some serious and sustained self destruction...so some chance.

What has been amazing about the NRL is how little declining participation has impacted on the professional league's popularity

The AFL just needs to keep doing what it is doing - i.e. keep growing the game through the 4 AFL clubs, very well resourced grass roots development and aggressive provision of FTA access to the local teams matches. Growth is not linear

I actually think it is some chance of becoming the dominant code in Sydney and South East Queensland in a few decades but regional areas are far harder to shift given stable populations and cultural conservatism
 

jatz14

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#4
Would need some serious and sustained self destruction...so some chance.

What has been amazing about the NRL is how little declining participation has impacted on the professional league's popularity

The AFL just needs to keep doing what it is doing - i.e. keep growing the game through the 4 AFL clubs, very well resourced grass roots development and aggressive provision of FTA access to the local teams matches. Growth is not linear

I actually think it is some chance of becoming the dominant code in Sydney and South East Queensland in a few decades but regional areas are far harder to shift given stable populations and cultural conservatism
The difficulty AFL faces is the difficulty soccer faces. Where the dominant code is AFL, kids might play soccer on the weekend, but support AFL teams, and have AFL heroes. Grass roots numbers, and support of the premium league are different things.

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Our Game

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#5
Will take a very long time if ever

What the AFL is about is getting a bigger share of the pie not all the pie and with NSW and QLD having half the Australian population thats the way to go.

To take on an entrenched code like RL who have been the dominant football code for decades in NSW esp is very hard to do and requires a lot of patience and hard work.

I think a lot of footy people dont appreciate the great job the Swans and now the Giants have done in the past and are doing now in promoting Australian Football in a sometimes hostile environment.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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#6
Not convinced I want it to.

The thing about Western Sydney is it's really big. There's plenty of room for us to grow, and we will shrink the NRL support over time. Not sure about soccer, a lot of that is cultural.

Interesting our AFLW team is offering a pathway from the local womens league and it's a culturally diverse group coming through.

On the whole our demographic is families and I'm happy for NRL to own the hoon element.
 

NoobPie

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#8
The difficulty AFL faces is the difficulty soccer faces. Where the dominant code is AFL, kids might play soccer on the weekend, but support AFL teams, and have AFL heroes. Grass roots numbers, and support of the premium league are different things.

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But soccer doesn't have anywhere near the junior participation in AFL land as it does in rugby league land. And RL doesn't have anywhere near the participation in its own heartland than does AF in its heartland states

I'm not suggesting this is not a factor at all, just that it is not a like for like comparison with soccer's experience. In each of Sydney and SEQ there are two AFL clubs in their midst. The best soccer teams and players are playing when kids are asleep.

Not every kids in NSW and QLD that does auskick will end up a committed supporter. But the AFL can give reach most kids there every year ad-infinitum

Last year's Friday night preliminary final's in Brisbane saw the NRL outrate the AFL by not much more than 3-1. This despite the latter being on 7-mate and going for an hour longer (which is a substantial disadvantage to the AFL when using average ratings).
 

NoobPie

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#9
Not convinced I want it to.

The thing about Western Sydney is it's really big. There's plenty of room for us to grow, and we will shrink the NRL support over time. Not sure about soccer, a lot of that is cultural.

Interesting our AFLW team is offering a pathway from the local womens league and it's a culturally diverse group coming through.

On the whole our demographic is families and I'm happy for NRL to own the hoon element.
Yeah that's fair enough. But I think the key is that demographic shifts will aide the AFL in Sydney over the long term. Existing die hard league fans aren't going to switch en-masse. The AFL just needs a small fraction of each age cohort to be pulled into its orbit to drag there family along to games and take it up more seriously.
 

jatz14

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#10
But soccer doesn't have anywhere near the junior participation in AFL land as it does in rugby league land. And RL doesn't have anywhere near the participation in its own heartland than does AF in its heartland states

I'm not suggesting this is not a factor at all, just that it is not a like for like comparison with soccer's experience. In each of Sydney and SEQ there are two AFL clubs in their midst. The best soccer teams and players are playing when kids are asleep.

Not every kids in NSW and QLD that does auskick will end up a committed supporter. But the AFL can give reach most kids there every year ad-infinitum

Last year's Friday night preliminary final's in Brisbane saw the NRL outrate the AFL by not much more than 3-1. This despite the latter being on 7-mate and going for an hour longer (which is a substantial disadvantage to the AFL when using average ratings).
Yet. Soccer has a pretty big presence in WA, and it's Vic presence is growing.

It's notable that the soccer crowd has this exact same conversation. Will we ever overtake NRL and AFL as the country's biggest sport.

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#11
Please define "overtaking"- as in "...footy overtaking league in NSW and Qld."

If you simply are referring to GR AF & RL participant nos., then, on current trends (ie since GWS's creation in 2012), GR AF could overtake GR RL nos. in c. 10-20 years in Sydney, & SE Qld.; but is very unlikely in regional & rural areas (excluding sthn. NSW, which is AF heartland).

Sydney in 2018 has 15,000+ registered jnr. 8 y.o. to 17 y.o. CLUB competition players ie not including many thousands of Club Auskick players 5 y.o to 8 y.o., & many thousands of primary & secondary school (both govt. & private) AF players.

Western Sydney GR Jnr AF CLUB teams (players only 8-17 y.o.)
2012- 67
2017- 155
2018- 180

Sydney Swans Zone GR Jnr AF CLUB teams (players only 8-17 y.o.)
2012- 210
2017- 366
2018- 438
There will be further big AF increases in both Sydney Zones in 2019. NSW Soccer nos. dwarf AF & RL. RL & RU currently attract (according to most school phys. ed teachers) most of the elite athletes in NSW & Qld.

Amazingly, NSW/ACT has overtaken all states except Vic. & WA for registered Club & school competition GR AF players- & it will overtake WA in 2019! The "sleeping giant"- or at least biggest state- of sport in Australia is starting to awaken- & is kicking the Sherrin.

Official AFL regd. GR nos. are approaching Official regd. FFA nos. in Australia in 2018- particularly if one includes AF coaches, umpires & Volunteers (as the FFA, apparently, does for their coaches, refs. & volunteers in their nos.).

I am excluding non-contact Tag & Touch players, as they are NOT RL players; nor is tag & Touch an historical & proven pathway to playing RL.
The often cited "transitioning" examples of B. Marshal, S. Johnson, & S. Prince actually also played contact football codes as jnrs.
AFAIK, no tag or touch player, who played only either of these sports until 18 y.o., then went onto a professional RL career- & very few even start to play amateur RL as adults.

There has been a long term decline in male GR RL & RU nos.- but female GR contact RL & RU (including rugby 7's) are showing impressive growth recently. This Daily Telegraph link outlines the NRL "concocting" their GR nos. by including touch & tag jnr & snr players.

https://outline.com/yX8sKM

This article provides details re the major decline of c. 25,000 adult male RL club player nos. from 1992-2017.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2017/06/20/happened-rugby-leagues-missing-25000-players/

Re general popularity/ratings/media coverage of AF surpassing RL, this would be extremely unlikely/no possibility in the next 30 years. Trying to predict 30 years + what might happen is pure guesswork.
RL's problem is the class divide; & RL's perceived "cultural problems" (which are unfair & overrated as 95%+ of NRL players are both law abiding, & do not engage in public anti-social behaviour: but "bad news" sells papers/gets clicks etc.)

It seems a "no-brainer" for the NRL to have a 2nd NRL club in Brisbane, population c. 2,300,000 ( & probably an additional NRL club in Perth, pop. 2,100,000). These changes would provide the NRL with a big boost in popularity, ratings, sponsors etc.
 
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Rob

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#12
Yet. Soccer has a pretty big presence in WA, and it's Vic presence is growing.

It's notable that the soccer crowd has this exact same conversation. Will we ever overtake NRL and AFL as the country's biggest sport.
What's notable is that it came from the top. Grandiose statements like how the A-League was going to be the most popular football competition in the country. And didn't that work a treat for them - now they're struggling to hold off the NBL.

If the AFL are measuring success by comparing it to other codes then they're doing it wrong. All they need to do is aim for growth - the reality is that their position in the market doesn't matter, or at least it's going to result in the AFL taking it's eye off the ball and looking at things it can't control, i.e how other sports are doing.
 

NoobPie

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#13
Yet. Soccer has a pretty big presence in WA, and it's Vic presence is growing.

It's notable that the soccer crowd has this exact same conversation. Will we ever overtake NRL and AFL as the country's biggest sport.

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I have agreed, grass roots participation is in no way a guarantee of broader popularity of elite competitions. NSW, where half Australia's soccer participants live, has proved that over decades where there might now be 10 times the number of kids playing soccer over league. Not only that, Victoria, which has the smallest soccer participation rates, has at least an equal engagement with the elite level of that game (in terms of attendances and TV ratings).

As an aside, I think it is highly dubious that Soccer's presence in Victoria is growing to any serious degree. The Ausplay survey doesn't show it. Not even the FFV's participation rates show it. Just their press releases

My point is not that Australian football participation in NSW will have a significantly higher rate of capture in terms of general support of the game than soccer has. The fact that the Swans dwarf any soccer club in Sydney would seem to attest to that. Subjective claims about the merits of the codes aside, it is purely a combination of development resources, ability to connect to the elite of the game and immediacy of the big show that makes the difference.

Also, in the national conversation dominated by the big cities, there is some point where people in Sydney and SEQ are engaged in the game in relative numbers to the NRL that the concept of "Australia's two major football codes" will surely fade away.
 

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#14
Ive lived in Mackay, Gladstone, Noosa and Brisbane in the past.

Anywhere from Capricornia North, with the exception of Cairns, the vast majority of people have a true and utter passionate dislike of Aussie Rules football. I think barring expats from interstate and the Cairns enclave (which is still slightly more Rugby League orientated) North QLD will never be prized away from Rugby League.

The Gold and Sunshine Coasts I would say are the best bet in the state of QLD where Aussie Rules may one day overtake Rugby League, you could even argue footy is pretty much on par with League on the Gold Coast going in terms of the number of fans of the premier league clubs (AFL and NRL, and not strictly the Suns and Titans, but all AFL and NRL clubs).

NSW I have no Idea about though, never lived there or even visited for a long enough time to comment.
 

NoobPie

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Ive lived in Mackay, Gladstone, Noosa and Brisbane in the past.

Anywhere from Capricornia North, with the exception of Cairns, the vast majority of people have a true and utter passionate dislike of Aussie Rules football. I think barring expats from interstate and the Cairns enclave (which is still slightly more Rugby League orientated) North QLD will never be prized away from Rugby League.

The Gold and Sunshine Coasts I would say are the best bet in the state of QLD where Aussie Rules may one day overtake Rugby League, you could even argue footy is pretty much on par with League on the Gold Coast going in terms of the number of fans of the premier league clubs (AFL and NRL, and not strictly the Suns and Titans, but all AFL and NRL clubs).

NSW I have no Idea about though, never lived there or even visited for a long enough time to comment.
Yeah this was my thinking earlier. The resistance to cultural change in regional cities and towns in QLD and NSW will pretty much make it impossible to shift. Apparently, when Isaac Heeney was playing football as a junior, his parents used to tease him about it! The main game for the AFL has to be Sydney and Brisbane / gold coast.


In last years finals, there were 6 games that were on at the same time

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Overall all, a little over 5 Sydney siders and 4 SEQlanders watched the NRL games for every one that watched the AFL games. Mind you the AFL games were on 7 mate and, as we know, comparing averages skews against the AFL because it goes for an hour longer.

The point is if there is more growth of Aus football in sydney and decline of RL than we head towards the, dare I say it, tipping point where the national "sporting conversation" will be unambiguously dominated by the AFL and it will be game over commercially. Just a 50% increase in those AFL averages and further 30% decline in the NRL ratings and you are at 2 to 1.
 

NoobPie

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#18
None whatsoever. Soccer has a far greater chance of laying waste to both the NRL and the AFL before that happens.
Nah.

Rugby League has a much better chance of turning the table on Australian football than soccer has of even rivalling the NRL let alone "laying waste" to both. Rugby League is still hugely dominant in NSW despite having has far less participants than soccer there for several decades. In traditionally the AFL's weakest city, the Swans are far bigger than the the A League franchises combined.

I think the only place that is ever happening is the seriously delusional and reality dodging fantasies of the soccer zealots
 
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Bomberboyokay

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#19
Yet. Soccer has a pretty big presence in WA, and it's Vic presence is growing.

It's notable that the soccer crowd has this exact same conversation. Will we ever overtake NRL and AFL as the country's biggest sport.
None whatsoever. Soccer has a far greater chance of laying waste to both the NRL and the AFL before that happens.
Soccer will never be #1. Watching the AFL and NRL comes with the implicit knowledge you're watching the best in the world. The A-League will never have that.

People do watch the European leagues but time zones keep a cap on the numbers. Every AFL and NRL game is on at a friendly time.
 
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#22
(1) You have not included the 2018 29,916 Queensland Club Auskick participants in the above figures. These are kids mostly aged between 5-8 y.o.
The AFL policy (nationwide) is not to have H & A AF competitions for these very young kids. It introduced Auskick as it considers the small group, "plenty of ball in hand" training/various skill segments is superior (but kids play, under modified Rules, an internal 30 minute game against kids in their age group during the 90 minute sessions).

The RL & Soccer figures above do include kids at Clubs in these age groups (For Soccer's Miniroos, kids start from 4 y.o.-possibly some 3 y.o.'s might also be included)- so your figures are not "like for like".

(2) For your figure of 61,963 QRL "registered players", are you claiming these are all Club contact RL players?

(3) What are the Official (ie not Ausplay) registered figures for (minimum 6 weeks) primary & secondary school AF competition players in Qld?
Ditto, RL?

(4) In recent years, do the Official Annual Reports (or other Official statements) of the QRU, RA etc. not show registered nos. for players playing contact RU in competitions that run for at least 6 weeks?

(5) In 2017, NRL Chairman Grant said, due to falling contact nos., a $100,000,000 fund needed to be established to boost GR RL contact nos. Was his view warranted?
Do you believe that GR contact RL nos. are in a major decline in Qld. & NSW?
This December 2018 Daily Telegraph article states the NRL is using rubbery figures, by including non-contact touch/tag participants, to disguise the decline in contact nos.- do you agree?

https://outline.com/yX8sKM

(6) In Brisbane, Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast & Cairns district in 2018, how does registered Club & school competition (minimum 6 weeks) contact RL nos. compare with GR AF?
And the comparison, approx., in 1987?

(7) GR soccer is played all year (unlike the contact codes), has many different formats (including school competitions & programs, Futsal etc.) and is much less physically demanding/lower chance of injury/shorter recovery times cf. the contact codes. Many private schools ban students who play school RU & AF from playing local Club also. This indicates the FFA total participant soccer nos. are MUCH more likely to have the same players counted twice or thrice, cf. the contact codes.
 
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The_Wookie

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(1) You have not included the 2018 29,916 Queensland Club Auskick participants in the above figures. These are kids mostly aged between 5-8 y.o.
The AFL policy (nationwide) is not to have H & A AF competitions for these very young kids. It introduced Auskick as it considers the small group, "plenty of ball in hand" training/various skill segments is superior (but kids play, under modified Rules, an internal 30 minute game against kids in their age group during the 90 minute sessions).
The AFL doesnt count Auskick in its registered club players. Neither did I.

The RL & Soccer figures above do include kids at Clubs in these age groups (For Soccer's Miniroos, kids start from 4 y.o.-possibly some 3 y.o.'s might also be included)- so your figures are not "like for like".
I took registered club players for registered club players. So they are.

(2) For your figure of 61,963 QRL "registered players", are you claiming these are all Club contact RL players?
Im not claiming anything other than showing the reported figures as published by each code.

(3) What are the Official (ie not Ausplay) registered figures for (minimum 6 weeks) primary & secondary school AF competition players in Qld?
Ditto, RL?
Do you own goddamned homework. I have a real job to do.

(4) In recent years, do the Official Annual Reports (or other Official statements) of the QRU, RA etc. not show registered nos. for players playing contact RU in competitions that run for at least 6 weeks?
No i just added the comment on the bottom of the table for the goddamn fun of it.

(5) In 2017, NRL Chairman Grant said, due to falling contact nos., a $100,000,00 fund needed to be established to boost GR RL contact nos? Was his view warranted?
Dont care.

Do you believe that GR contact RL nos. are in a major decline in Qld. & NSW?
havent looked into it, but if the data supported it then i would. Belief doesnt enter into it.

This December 2018 Daily Telegraph article states the NRL is using rubbery figures, by including non-contact touch/tag participants, to disguise the decline in contact nos.- do you agree?

https://outline.com/yX8sKM
Its the telegraph, frankly dont care what it says.

(6) In Brisbane, Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast & Cairns district in 2018, how does registered Club & school competition (minimum 6 weeks) contact RL nos. compare with GR AF?
And the comparison, approx., in 1987?
Again do your own homework.

(7) GR soccer is played all year (unlike the contact codes), has many different formats (including school competitions & programs, Futsal etc.) and is much less physically demanding/lower chance of injury/shorter recovery times cf. the contact codes. Many private schools ban students who play school RU & AF from playing local Club also. This indicates the FFA total participant soccer nos. are MUCH more likely to have the same players counted twice or thrice, cf. the contact codes.
Do I look like wikipedia to you?
 
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