What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

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BringBackTorps

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1. "Although rugby league still rules the roost in Qld. & NSW, the AFL is making up ground. There were 383,000 fans who tuned into the AFL Grand Final in Brisbane- the highest audience since 2004" (when Brisbane were last in the GF).

"The overall Qld. average audience was 523,000,up 22% on last year. Sydney's average audience was 413,000, which is the highest figure for a non-Swans' Grand Final in the past 20 years. Total NSW Regional Average AFL GF viewers- 251,000)


The AFL Finals, which preceded the GF in 2020, had higher ratings' nos. in Brisbane, cf the NRL Finals (pre GF) in Brisbane. Obviously, if Qld. had a Qld. team in the 2020 NRL Finals, these games would have outrated AFL Finals in Brisbane.


2. Courier Mail R. Craddock 25.10

Craddock said

"With even Rugby League's State Of Origin struggling to sell out in Brisbane, the ticket crush (ie AFL GF tickets to the Brisbane public, at average cost of $400, sold out in c. 20 minutes when offered on Tuesday, without a Qld. GF team- my words), was a welcome contrast to the pioneer years of the 1980's (when Brisbane Bears regularly offered free tickets to the public- my words)...".


(Click on letters in blue to open Craddock's Courier Mail article).
 
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Gigantor

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The comments to that Courier Mail article are surprisingly positive, i.e. no league trolls. Maybe this does represent some sort of shift in the attitude to the game by the average Queenslander.
The Suns Pres. summed it up well when being interviewed by Whately on SEN the other day: in his opinion, by the end of this decade, Qld will be supplying a decent chunk of all draftees at the annual draft (was not more specific than that).
In one sense that has already been achieved, but it's not a stretch that whatever the current percentage is, it will increase over the next few years.
And to me, that's a great outcome, and our ambitions for the state of Qld need not be much greater than that.
NSW next.
 

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Gibbke

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It's always had some strength in the SE of Qld, but once you get past the Sunshine Coast it's RL all the way. I'm near Cairns, the supposed AFL oasis, and RL absolutely destroys it. It's a vast regional area, and therefore more conservative and loyal to old beliefs, as well as loyal to the Cowboys no matter how far down the ladder they usually are. No one's jumping ship any time soon...
 

BringBackTorps

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This is a Reddit Thread from 2016 (& different to the Reddit NRL post #353 above) re Reasons for Qld., NSW, & ACT NRL fans to also follow the AFL.

It should be noted that GR AF has had significant growth in NSW, ACT, & Qld. since then; & male GR contact RL has continued its significant decline (but female contact RL is having significant growth in Clubs, but not schools).



Anecdotally, there are now relatively few passionate NRL fans who are also passionate AFL fans (excluding Melb. Storm, & possibly Canberra Raiders).
 
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eastfreo75

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Footy is definitely doing well against league in the Canberra region (which is inside NSW, so it counts for this thread).

Even without a full-time local team and the media saturation that follows, footy's participation is showing up league.

Since the post-Covid restart, there are 31 men's footy teams competing in the Canberra region (not including another seven Rising Star teams which I think are u19).

In comparison, there are 12 men’s rugby league teams in the Canberra region, with only half of those actually in the ACT.

Both leagues have had some casualties (hopefully just temporary) from the pandemic, but it shows the depth in the respective leagues, too.

Imagine how well footy could do here with full-time AFL and AFLW teams!
Everybody talks about a third Sydney or Perth team, but seriously Canberra and Hobart should be the 19th and 20th teams.
 

Canberra Pear

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Definitely agree.

The Canberra market will be ready for a team way before a third Sydney team.

I think the way forward is new Canberra teams (not affiliated to any current single AFL Canberra clubs) in the new VFL and VFLW-plus leagues.

Market the hell out of them and give Canberra a chance to show how well they'd support their own team. The new league would also have larger opposition crowds keen to see any form of their Victorian teams in action.
 
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Canberra Pear

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It's fantasy to think Canberra could support a stand-alone AFL team.
Let me dream!

But I think the numbers work in Canberra's favour.

It's only anecdotal and a very narrow sample size, but in the Canberra offices I've worked in, support for AFL is slightly greater than for the rugbies, despite not having a full-time team. And minimal coverage. We all have different allegiances, but we still signed up 5,000 members for a part-time GWS before they even played a game here. We would also have even more members for other clubs. It would actually be interesting to see how many AFL membership numbers we have across the 18 clubs.

Greater Canberra is close to double Hobart's population, but also with a higher median income. Comparing would-be secondary homes, the Riverina (Wagga and Albury) would also be a bigger base than Launceston / North Tasmania.

I'm a GWS member myself. I've even taken two Murray's buses to see their finals in Sydney, but eventually GWS will want to play more games at Homebush, maybe a game or two in Newcastle. I think the current Manuka deal was, or is being, extended to 2031. By that time, Canberra's population will be even greater, and if the AFL continues to lay the ground work, I think we'll definitely be ready (which is why I think the VFL team will be a good starting point, then that team will have support and can just be promoted).

If we received the same investment as the two expansion clubs, and we can sort out a better stadium option, I think we'd be successful.
 

General Giant

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If we received the same investment as the two expansion clubs, and we can sort out a better stadium option, I think we'd be successful.
and thats the issue.

The AFL are all for the investment in Western Sydney and Sth East Qld because of the population and growth.

As much as I would like a Canberra team as it means my club would concentrate on Western Sydney I just cant see them investing what might be needed. Tassie is a different story and probably would need anywhere near the funding (didnt the Tassie minister say they would need any extra funding on top of the tv money?)
 

Canberra Pear

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and thats the issue.

The AFL are all for the investment in Western Sydney and Sth East Qld because of the population and growth.

As much as I would like a Canberra team as it means my club would concentrate on Western Sydney I just cant see them investing what might be needed. Tassie is a different story and probably would need anywhere near the funding (didnt the Tassie minister say they would need any extra funding on top of the tv money?)
I agree. I don't want a Canberra club to be detrimental to any other clubs north of the Barassi Line.

The AFL does things slowly, but surely. I wouldn't imagine a standalone Canberra team for at least 10-15 years. But by the end of that GWS and Gold Coast would have had 25 years in the comp and should be established and profitable. Looking at the explosion in Auskick, you'd expect a lot of draft picks will be coming from WS by then too.

In the meantime, that's plenty of time for us to get unified support behind a second tier team and get a stadium sorted.
 

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BringBackTorps

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It's always had some[now strong] strength in the SE of Qld, but once you get past the Sunshine Coast it's RL all the way.[Agreed, generally] I'm near Cairns, the supposed AFL oasis, and RL absolutely destroys it. [No]
The Cairns district (ie including Pt Douglas to the north, & including Gordonvale to the south) has strong support for the AFL; & strong AF GR club & school comp. nos., cf contact GR RL club & contact RL school comp. nos.

There are much smaller GR AF club & school comps in other coastal towns of north & central Qld.- but very little AF support in the inland regional towns & rural areas.



2. Cairns Post 12.9.20 states

"Cairns AFL footy faces unprecedented growth in far north thanks to women's competition".
"...the sports' (AF) heavyweights say it is just a glimpse into the boom the code (AF- my words & emphases) is going through in the far north".

(Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post here)




EDIT:

3. Brisbane Times (Nine) T. Crockford 19.10.20

Crockford said that AFL ratings were up 35% in Qld. in 2020.

Qld. Minister K. Jones said

" And no one can deny that having the GF here will be a huge boost for grassroots AFL here in Qld. We have seen over the past 5 years a 500% (? Seems to high for last 5 years- perhaps 5 y.o. & 6 y.o. female Auskickers only) increase in girls playing AFL in Qld. alone (my words & emphases)".




4. EDIT:

Townsville Bulletin 14.6.19

"There's great growth in the game in Qld...."

"The Suns' big plans for northern Queensland. We take it seriously...".

"Gold Coast Suns General Manager of Football Operations sees a major opportunity in North Quensland".

(Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post here).
 
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BringBackTorps

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1. The Australian J. Halloran 5.11.20

Halloran said it is likely that Nine & Stan will announce next week they have gained the RU Rights for Australian & Super teams.

Halloran also said

"Rugby in this country has never been in a lower position...The Wallabies haven't won a Blediscoe Cup for 18 years, last week saw the team's worst defeat in 117 years, & to boot the Australians are 7th in the world (its lowest world ranking ever. Many believe that, for RU to be successful, the Wallabies must be successful- my words & emphases)".

"...there are serious questions over whether Nine will have the ability to rebuild the code's dwindling Super Rugby audiences...with fewer stars" (in Australia, as there has been a large exodus of RU stars).

(Go to 5.11 tweet in Sports Industry- then click on "The Australian. Nine To Be The new Home Of Rugby").

The long term decline of male GR contact RU nos. will be increased if there is less future pro RU coverage, & the ratings (& crowds) continue to fall cf. Foxtel & 10's FTA coverage. Ditto, if the Wallabies remain poor.
Both these declines will likely benefit GR AF- as AF is having significant growth (not male GR contact RL) in the RU localised strongholds of Sydney (ie NS & ES), Brisbane & ACT etc.




2. The long term GR male contact RU nos. decline is an antipodean problem- NZ, where RU was considered to be akin to a religion, is also in a long term GR male jnr & snr decline. If GR male nos. (but not the quality & skill levels of the All Blacks) are a problem for fervent NZ, can GR RU in Australia overcome its descent?

walesonline M. Coleman 20.2.20

Coleman said, re adult players from May 2020

"New Zealand Rugby has announced the launch of a new Club competition restricted to players below 85kgs in a bid to address an increasingly alarming drop in the number of players at grassroots level...The announcement comes...after...admitting the sport was under pressure following dwindling numbers at grassroots level in the 13-20 age bracket...The physicality of the sport has been largely touted as a key reason for the drop in numbers...".

Club comp. teams can, also, be reduced to 10 per team, when there is a player shortage; & games can be played over a maximum of 40 minutes (not necessarily 80 mins.).


The NZRU is conducting an official Enquiry into its male GR contact nos. decline.




3. rugbypass.com 28.5.20

"The (Guardian) article highlighted that the average weight of the average England player rose from 94.3 kgs t 105.8 kgs, & 91.6 kgs to 104.6 kgs for the All Blacks over the course of 28 years...".



Pro RU players are getting much heavier, stronger, & fitter on average- & are hitting harder in tackles etc., causing more contact injuries.

Irish Times R. Kitson 9.1.19

"RFU Wants Significant Change After Alarming Rise In Injuries".


NRL players have, also, become much heavier & stronger over the last 28 years- & would be experiencing more contact injuries (but recent changes to abolish head high contact & shirt fronts would reduce the no. of concussions from these specific incidents). Light weights are disappearing from the NRL, not just skillful halves.


Further details about:-

. NZ's GR male contact RU nos. decline

. the lack of depth in pro NZ RU Super teams

. how this will negatively impact average NRL skill levels (c. 45% of elite RL & RU players in Aust. have a NZ background)

. how this will negatively impact the NRL's ability to expand to 17 teams (dilution of average skill levels)

are in this link
(Go to post#277).
 
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Gigantor

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The Australian J. Halloran 5.11.20

Halloran said it is likely that Nine & Stan will announce next week they have gained the RU Rights for Australian & Super teams.

Halloran also said

"Rugby in this country has never been in a lower position...The Wallabies haven't won a Blediscoe Cup for 18 years, last week saw the team's worst defeat in 117 years, & to boot the Australians are 7th in the world (my emphases)".

"...there are serious questions over whether Nine will have the ability to rebuild the code's dwindling Super Rugby audiences...with fewer stars" (in Australia).

(Go to 6.11 tweet in Sports Industry- then click on "The Australian Nine To Be The new Home Of Rugby").

The long term decline of male GR contact RU nos. may be increased if there is less future pro RU coverage, & the ratings continue to fall (Foxtel & 10's FTA coverage). This decline will likely benefit GR AF- as AF is having significant growth (not GR RL) in the localised RU strongholds of Sydney, Brisbane & & ACT etc.
This trend has been ongoing for at least 20 years now, not that I wish rugby union any ill-will.
It has a narrow base (which staunchly supports the sport), and the day has probably come to stick with that narrow base, stick to it hard and make sure it never leaves rugby.
The other thing they need to do is keep as many of the immigrant community which would normally support the sport (rather than losing them to league).
 

BringBackTorps

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1. SMH M.Knox 20.4.20

Following the dismissal of T. Greenberg in April 2020, Knox repeated the same SMH article on 20.4.20, that was originally in the SMH on 28.9.18.

Knox said on 28.9.18, re GR contact RL nos.

"Participation numbers...has stagnated...with long term decline in the key boys' 13-18 age group (Actually, Knox's "long term decline" in male contact nos. has not just "stagnated"- but has continued to decline inexorably up to, & including, 2018; & this decline has again continued to 2020)".

"The AFL has almost twice the number of participants (but both AFL & NRL "participant" nos. are both fluff nos. Most are meaningless one-off Gala Days, community events etc. ie not club & school comps. All my words). The AFL has almost 697,000 playing in competitions- up 10% last year".

T. Greenberg nominated to Knox that he considered the most important metrics for the NRL were NRL viewing nos.& "participant" nos.

Knox also states that, cf the NRL & its 16 Clubs, the AFL & its 18 Club have far superior revenues.





2. Daily Telegraph P. Kent 7.6.16

"NRL's Neglect Of Rugby League's Grassroots Is Putting The Game's Future At Risk".

Kent said

"Junior registration numbers in NSW are in decline...Now, AFL registrations rise every year (in NSW). Last year the AFL, a greater threat than ever, spent $25m in...non AFL states. The NRL spent $20m (in NSW & Qld.- all my words)".

 
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BringBackTorps

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Until 2017, Qld., remarkably for a RL state, had more regd. female AF participants than Vic.!

Since 2017 & the start of the AFL, Vic. has again become no. 1 in Aust. for female participant, with Qld. being second.

This lengthy & very detailed analysis (Part 1 only of a 3 Part Series "Women Made This Happen") provides many of the strategies how Qld. achieved this (but not the total explanation of this incredible fact).

Fenwich & Bastiani said

"School football remains a significant part of the pathway in Qld. with as many girls' sides as there are boys"!

B. Brock AFLQ Female Development Manager said to the AFLQ in 2013

"...I reckon we could get to no.1 in the country participation-wise for women & girls...They (AFLQ) started changing people's job descriptions...allocating KPI's around the participation of women & girls".

siren. com.au K. Fenwick & G. Bastian
 
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BringBackTorps

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In a sign of the growing quality, & booming nos., of AF on the Sunshine Coast, Noosa FC will be promoted to the premier SEQ men's comp., the QAFL, in 2021. It is at the northern end of the Sunshine Coast- Maroochydore, at the southern end, is the only other SC Club in the QAFL, having joined in 2020.

The QAFL is being expanded by 2 Clubs in 2021.

 
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Pippen94

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1. SMH M.Knox 20.4.20

Following the dismissal of T. Greenberg in April 2020, Knox repeated the same SMH article on 20.4.20, that was originally in the SMH on 28.9.18.

Knox said on 28.9.18, re GR contact RL nos.

"Participation numbers...has stagnated...with long term decline in the key boys' 13-18 age group (Actually, Knox's "long term decline" in male contact nos. has not just "stagnated"- but has continued to decline inexorably up to, & including, 2018; & this decline has again continued to 2020)".

"The AFL has almost twice the number of participants (but both AFL & NRL "participant" nos. are both fluff nos. Most are meaningless one-off Gala Days, community events etc. ie not club & school comps. All my words). The AFL has almost 697,000 playing in competitions- up 10% last year".

T. Greenberg nominated to Knox that he considered the most important metrics for the NRL were NRL viewing nos.& "participant" nos.

Knox also states that, cf the NRL & its 16 Clubs, the AFL & its 18 Club have far superior revenues.





2. Daily Telegraph P. Kent 7.6.16

"NRL's Neglect Of Rugby League's Grassroots Is Putting The Game's Future At Risk".

Kent said

"Junior registration numbers in NSW are in decline...Now, AFL registrations rise every year (in NSW). Last year the AFL, a greater threat than ever, spent $25m in...non AFL states. The NRL spent $20m (in NSW & Qld.- all my words)".

This is old news!!!

Brw, I've noticed lots of touch competitions around Sydney on week nights. Ovals are packed with teams. Seems like NRL has upped it's game
 

BringBackTorps

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This is old news!!!
Not particularly.
This news, re the long term significant decline of male contact RL nos. in NSW, ACT, & Qld., is more relevant than ever- because this GR decline has further deteriorated, to a much more worrying level.

As you know, Penrith legend G. Alexander said (paraphrasing) earlier this year he is very worried about the (male contact) GR RL decline in Sydney's WS- where he is a jnr RL coach in the Penrith District JRL...& that the NRL is deliberately counting non-contact touch & tag, & other non-contact activities to try & hide the significant (male contact) RL decline; & inflate the total "RL" nos.

You also know, in July 2020, the QRL stated it had only c. 5000 jnr club RL players, in 498 teams, in the Rugby League Brisbane Juniors competition - for U6-U12 players (U13-U18 contact nos. are FAR worse!). The RLBJ comp. covers all Brisbane, except for the Ipswich area.

For a RL heartland, these very low nos. are extraordinary, & almost shocking! RL is floundering in Brisbane. Brisbane has a population of c. 2.1m, not including the Ipswich area (& the Ipswich District JRL).


Brw, I've noticed lots of touch [Lol] competitions around Sydney on week nights. Ovals are packed with teams. Seems like NRL has upped it's game [Played almost 11 months pa. Helps NRL inflate its total nos.]
Touch & tag etc. players are not RL players. There is a reason they are playing a non-contact sport, which is traditionally not a feeder comp. into contact RL.
See my comments re G. Alexander (& P. Kent, & others) above.

Why are you continuing to deny the growth of GR AF, & the AFL, in NSW, ACT, & Qld.; & why are you refusing to answer the questions I put to you about this incontrovertible growth, in c. 8 requests I put to you directly? In both this Thread, & Sydney 3rd team Thread.
To help jog your memory, here are the questions I put to you.

(See my post#327, with the various supporting links).




2. As is well known, GR AF is having strong growth in the ACT. Male RL & RU are struggling, despite the massive advantage of having full time pro teams in the ACT. The AFL doesn't.

These are the AusPlay nos. for the ACT in 2019, for Club comp. players in AF, RU, & RL (15 y.o - all adult ages).

AF- 8461
RU- 2194
RL- 1472
(includes the adjoining Queanbeyan, Goulburn, & Yass Clubs, which are part of their respective ACT comps.).


(AusPlay is a small survey only, & is very unreliable- but it can be useful for detecting trends).
 
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PhatBoy

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You guys realise why girls are keen to play AFL right?

You can tackle.

League tag has really taken off since most country rugby league clubs established women’s teams too.

But AFL ones have really taken off. The two primary reasons are because the girls that like contact but aren’t part of the fringe women’s rugby community (a very niche market) can play it, tackle, do all the things blokes do.

Also because league tag is basically a derivative of touch football, people who play it have pedigree. It’s hard for a newcomer to get involved and make an impact.

With AFL there aren’t a lot of women that have a lengthy background in the sport - anyone can turn up and get a game and that’s what’s happened. And it’s worked.
 

BringBackTorps

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You guys realise why girls are keen to play AFL right?

You can tackle.
Yes, it is widely accepted in AF circles that many females enjoy the challenge, thrill, & courage needed to tackle that AF offers, & most other sports don't.
(After they have been thoroughly trained to tackle safely, & to be as safe as possible when tackled).

There are also many other reasons to explain the female GR AF boom.
Virtually all the other reasons are fully explored in this link.


Also because league tag is basically a derivative of touch football, people who play it have pedigree. It’s hard for a newcomer to get involved and make an impact.
Why is it, for females who are reasonably athletic, "... hard for a newcomer to make an impact" in league tag, a non-contact sport?
Surely Tag second Divisions are available for inexperienced & newcomers in female Tag, where they would feel "comfortable".

What state have you been living in since 2015?

For females who want to tackle in NSW, ACT, & Qld., where RL & RU resonates much more strongly in schools & the MSM etc, it would be normal to expect these females to decide to try out for/train/ & eventually play female contact RL or RU. Most are not-why?
(Female contact AF nos. are far superior to female contact RL & RU nos. in NSW, ACT, & Qld.).
 
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Pippen94

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You guys realise why girls are keen to play AFL right?

You can tackle.

League tag has really taken off since most country rugby league clubs established women’s teams too.

But AFL ones have really taken off. The two primary reasons are because the girls that like contact but aren’t part of the fringe women’s rugby community (a very niche market) can play it, tackle, do all the things blokes do.

Also because league tag is basically a derivative of touch football, people who play it have pedigree. It’s hard for a newcomer to get involved and make an impact.

With AFL there aren’t a lot of women that have a lengthy background in the sport - anyone can turn up and get a game and that’s what’s happened. And it’s worked.
Nrl did research & found ppl who play touch more likely to follow rugby league as fans - that's thinking behind it
 

PhatBoy

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Yes, it is widely accepted in AF circles that many females enjoy the challenge, thrill, & courage needed to tackle that AF offers, & most other sports don't.
(After they have been thoroughly trained to tackle safely, & to be as safe as possible when tackled).

There are also many other reasons to explain the female GR AF boom.
Virtually all the other reasons are fully explored in this link.




Why is it, for females, "... hard for a newcomer to make an impact" in this non-contact sport?

What state have you been living in since 2015?

For females who want to tackle in NSW, ACT, & Qld., where RL & RU resonates much more strongly in schools & the MSM etc, it would be normal to expect these females decide to try/play female contact RL or RU. Most are not-why?
(Female contact AF nos. are far superior to female contact RL & RU nos. in NSW, ACT, & Qld.).

Because there is no contact rugby league for girls beyond under 10s level generally.

It’s not an option. They can play women’s rugby - an existent, but very niche sport, or they can go to league tag. A non contact version of rugby league. That’s it.

There are a couple of fringe women’s tackle rugby league comps in city areas but it’s still very much a novel sport.

There’s none out here in central west nsw.

That’s why they don’t play it. It doesn’t exist. Makes it hard.
 

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