What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

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Dirty Bird

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I Just had a look at the sydney juniors since I left 13 years ago

There are 26 clubs which were there in 2007, 7 which have changed named, 2 I dont know about (Newtown Swans, Wollondilly Redbacks) and 19 new clubs.

Of those 19 new clubs, 2 are in the northern region, 3 in the city, 6 in the southern region and 8 in the west.

To have gone from 27-29 clubs in 2007 up to 48 clubs now is ridiculous

And the clubs which existed then have grown!!!!

In my age group (Draft class '08) across the 3 u14s leagues there would've been about 20 teams (13 off the top of my head (West and North), the city league and maybe a few teams in the north league escaping my mind).

Today it's 32 teams across 4 leagues!

The current u17sgrade has 26 teams across 3 leagues. Back then the u16s was about half that (u16s the city clubs joined the northern league, dont know if the western league had any clubs, certainly not in the north where I played)

And this isn't even including girls! 15 leagues of girls in Sydney. Heck, I wouldn't rule out the womens game have grown so substantially, it's at the same position as men 15 years ago!
 

BringBackTorps

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1. COLLAPSE OF 2020 GR CLUB JNR & SNR MALE CONTACT RL ON THE GOLD COAST- AF GR CLUB JNR & SNR MALE NOS. EXCEED RL ON THE GC. NRL HAS MAJOR PROBLEMS.

As per the Rugby League Gold Coast (RLGC) 2020 competition details below, the long term decline in Club GR jnr & snr male contact RL on the Gold Coast can now be categorised as a collapse.

As of June 2019, the GC had a population of 600,126.
(This excludes c. 79,000 who live in the Tweed Heads region in far nthn. NSW, on the border; & the RLGC comp. nos. below do not include the Northern Rivers RL comp.- a separate comp. in far nthn. NSW).

Qld. is a RL heartland State.
The GC was once considered a dominant GR RL stronghold- but no more.

The 2020 GC Club RL male contact team nos., U13- Open Age adults inclusive, had only 107 teams (inc. only 25 male U20-Open teams).
For such a large population of 600K+, in a RL heartland area, 107 teams are extraordinarily low.
More evidence that the cultural & sporting techtonic plates are shifting in Qld., NSW, & ACT.

U13 Male

Div.1- 9 teams
Div.2- 6 "
Div.3- 5 "

U14

Div.1- 6 "
Div.2- 8 "
Div.3- 4 "

U15

Div.1- 8 "
Div.2- 7 "

U16

Div.1- 4 "
Div.2- 11 "

Nil U17

U18

Div.1- 7 "
Div.2- 7 "

U20- 6 teams, OPEN Age Kennards- 4 teams, Reserve Grade- 8 teams, A Grade- 7 teams.



Female Club GR contact RL is having significant growth in Qld., NSW, & ACT since 2017, off a small base (sometimes a team has less than 13 players on the field). Ditto growth for female Club RU (where RU 7's are more popular).

For RL Club jnr & snr females playing contact RL in SEQ, they play only in the SEQ RL Female comp.- which covers not only the GC, but also Brisbane & the western corridor/Ipswich area, & the Sunshine Coast.

For RL clubs based on the GC, these are the no. of their female teams in the SEQ Female comp. (in brackets are non GC- based teams).

U12 Female

2 teams (+5 Non-GC based teams in comp.)

U14

Div.1- 2 (+6 ")
Div.2- 1 (+7 ")

U16

Div.1- 2 (+2 ")
Div.2- 1 (+5 ")

U18

1 (+2 ")

OPEN Age

Green- 2 GC teams (+3 ")
Orange- 2 GC teams (+4 ")
Premiership- 1 GC team (+2 ")

The total no., therefore, of Club female Contact RL teams based on the GC are 14.


Re Gold Coast govt. & state primary & secondary school female contact RL comp. team nos., they are miniscule, cf GC school female AF comp. team nos.






2. RU & RL have c. a 100 year & 80 year head-start respectively over AF in Qld.
Despite this, in the GC-Greater Brisbane (excluding Ipswich district)-Sunshine Coast corridor, & the Cairns district, GR AF has had enormous growth since 2012, & is now challenging RL (not yet in Ratings, although the NRL ratings now skews noticeably to older age groups).

It is very likely that GR AF jnr & snr club, & school (primary & secondary, govt. & private), competition regd. player nos. have overtaken GR contact RL jnr & snr club, & school (primary & secondary, govt. & private), competition regd. player nos. in the Gold Coast-Brisbane (excluding Ipswich District RL)-Sunshine Coast corridor.

Based on the long term trends (re GR AF Clubs', & private & govt. primary & secondary schools', strong growth in AF comp. nos in SEQ), it appears likely that, c. 2040, the AFL (& not just GR AF) on all metrics will be the dominant elite comp in SEQ.

Details of contact RL's decline in Greater Brisbane & the RLBJ comp., & rise of GR AF, are in these links.

(Scroll to my post#110)

(AFL Annual Report 2020: In SEQ jnr comp. only, U8-U17 had a record 13,177 in 2020; SEQ only Club Auskick, mainly U6-U8, had an additional 4393 regd. players).


In Nov. 2018, it was predicted by the ABS that Qld. would have a population c. 8m (& Brisbane c.3.8m?) by 2066.


AF has a minimal GR club presence & following in rural Qld. In regional towns, mainly on the coast, it has a small following.

Assuming the Qld. AF growth continues, there will likely be a 3rd AFL team in Qld. by c. 2050 ( Brisbane 2; or Tropical FC- based in Cairns, & playing equal home games in Cairns, Townsville, & Darwin).
 
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BringBackTorps

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1. COLLAPSE OF GR CLUB SNR MALE CONTACT RL IN GREATER BRISBANE IN 2020. GR CLUB JNR & SNR AF NOS. EXCEED GR JNR & SNR CONTACT RL NOS. IN GREATER BRISBANE. MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THE NRL.

In 2020, the significant decline in GR club snr male contact RL teams can only be categorised as a collapse. Greater Brisbane (not including the Ipswich District RL comp., & area) had a population of c. 2.2m in 2020.

The figures below for the no. of Greater Brisbane senior male contact RL teams- 59 teams -are extraordinarily low, & almost shocking.

GR AF club jnr & snr player nos. have overtaken GR contact RL jnr & snr player nos. in Brisbane.

Rugby League Brisbane 2020 Open Age (adult) club male contact RL team nos.

A Grade - 8 teams
Reserve Grade-8"
Div.1- 10 "
Div.2 North- 10"
Div.3 North- 12"
Div.2 South- 4"
Div.3 South- 7"




Ipswich district, population c. 220k+ in 2020, is technically part of the Greater Brisbane metro area.

These are the club male contact RL team nos. for the Ipswich District RL (RLI) in 2020.

OPEN Age Volunteer Cup- 6 teams (includes 2 adult teams from Toowoomba district).

U9 - 7 teams
U10- 6 "
U11- 6 "
U12- 8 "
U13- 4 "
U14- 6 "
U15- 4 "
U17- 5 "

Total 46 Club jnr male contact RL teams, U9- U17, in the RLI comp. in 2020.





2. At least 15 MSM RL experts, & also Nine & Foxtel executives, have stated (between 2018-2020, previously linked by me in this Thread) there is an insufficient depth of talent in the NRL, causing a decline in skills- & most of these don't want the NRL to expand beyond 16 teams, for this reason.
Nine & Foxtel, & most of the others, however, want Brisbane 2, with, concurrently, 1 less team in Sydney.

SEN Melb. Radio G.Whately program (disecting Round 1 NRL) 15.3.21:-

. A. Voss said "There is a major chasm in class" (ie NRL skill levels in top 6, cf bottom 6)

. R. Craddock said, mainly paraphrasing "This is the talk (amongst MSM NRL experts) Six teams look classes above the rest. Differences between the top 6 & bottom 6 show there is a real division in skills. Top 6 are pure quality- then it rapidly drops off".

(Scroll to R. Craddock interview- then 3 mins.15 secs. -4 mins. 40 secs)




smh.com A. Pengilly 15.3.21

Pengilly said, re the differences in NRL teams' quality

"...it prompted M. Ennis to tell Fox League he feared the gap between the NRL's top & bottom teams will only expand in the frenetic modern game".



Many other NRL commentators are expressing similar views, after Round 1 2021, of the major skill differences between top 6 & bottom 6 teams.

The collapse in male contact RL teams in Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney (excluding Penrith District RL- but it is also in a significant decline) is adding to the lack of depth in the NRL- &, if expansion to 17 teams occurs, the quality will be diluted further.
Declines in quality of matches will probably cause a reduction in NRL crowds, ratings, Rights'$, & MSM interest- & probably have a negative effect on male contact RL nos.
 
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Pippen94

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1. COLLAPSE OF GR CLUB SNR MALE CONTACT RL IN GREATER BRISBANE IN 2020. GR CLUB JNR & SNR AF NOS. EXCEED GR JNR & SNR CONTACT RL NOS. IN BRISBANE. MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THE NRL.

In 2020, the significant decline in GR club snr male contact RL teams can only be categorised as a collapse. Greater Brisbane (not including the Ipswich District RL comp., & area) had a population of c. 2.2m.

The figures below for the no. of Greater Brisbane senior contact teams- 59 teams -are extraordinarily low, & almost shocking.

GR AF club jnr & snr player nos. have overtaken GR contact RL jnr & snr player nos. in Brisbane.

Rugby League Brisbane 2020 Open Age (adult) club male contact RL team nos.

A Grade - 8 teams
Reserve Grade-8"
Div.1- 10 "
Div.2 North- 10"
Div.3 North- 12"
Div.2 South- 4"
Div.3 South- 7"


Ipswich is technically part of the Greater Brisbane city area.

These are the club male contact RL team nos. for the Ipswich District RL (I have omitted U6-U8).

OPEN Age Volunteer Cup- 6 teams (includes 2 adult teams from Toowoomba district).

U9- 7 teams
U10- 6 "
U11- 6 "
U12- 8 "
U13- 4 "
U14- 6 "
U15- 4 "
U17- 5"





2. At least 15 MSM RL experts, & also Nine & Foxtel executives, have stated (between 2018-2020, previously linked by me in this Thread) there is an insufficient depth of talent in the NRL, causing a decline in skills- & most of these don't want the NRL to expand beyond 16 teams, for this reason.
Nine & Foxtel, & most of the others, however, want Brisbane 2, with, concurrently, 1 less team in Sydney.

On SEN Melb. Radio today :-

. A. Voss said "There is a major chasm in class" (ie skills)

. R. Craddock said, mainly paraphrasing " This is the talk (amongst NRL experts) Six teams look classes above the rest. Differences between the top 6 & bottom 6 show there is a real division in skills. Top 6 are pure quality- then it rapidly drops off".

(Scroll to R. Craddock interview- then 3 mins.15 secs. -4 mins. 40 secs)




smh.com A. Pengilly 15.3.21

Pengilly said, re the differences in NRL teams' quality

"...it prompted M. Ennis to tell Fox League he feared the gap between the NRL's top & bottom teams will only expand in the frenetic modern game".



Many NRL commentators are expressing similar views, after Round 1 2021, of the major skill differences between top 6 & bottom 6 teams.

The collapse in male contact RL teams in Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney (excluding Penrith District RL) is adding to the lack of depth in the NRL- &, if expansion to 17 teams occurs, the quality will be diluted further.
Declines in quality of matches will probably cause a reduction in NRL crowds, ratings, Rights'$, & MSM interest & probably have a negative effect on male contact RL nos.
Guess ppl are moving non contact sport if at all. Doesn't help you
 

BringBackTorps

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1. COLLAPSE OF SUNSHINE COAST GR JNR & SNR CLUB MALE CONTACT RL IN 2020. AF SUNSHINE COAST GR JNR & SNR CLUB & SCHOOL MALE PLAYER NOS. EXCEED JNR & SNR CLUB & SCHOOL MALE CONTACT RL NOS. MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THE NRL.

Sunshine Coast 2020 GR Jnr club male contact RL team nos.

U13 Div.1- 5 "
U13 Div.2- 8 "

U14 Div.1- 7 "
U14 Div.2- 5 "

U15 Div.1- 5 "
U15 Div.2- 6 "

U16 8- "

U18 7- "

Total: 51 jnr male contact RL teams


U14- 4 female teams

U16- 4 "
(These were the only girls' contact team age groups).

The Sunshine Coast region had a population of 328,428 in June 2019. For a RL heartland area, only 51 jnr U13-U18 male contact RL teams is extraordinarily low.

AF male & female jnr & snr club & school comp. nos. on the Sunshine Coast FAR exceed male & female jnr & snr club & school contact RL comp. nos. on the Sunshine Coast.


There was no Sunshine Coast U19, U20, or Open Age contact RL teams playing in 2020.
Despite very low covid cases on the Sunshine Coast in mid 2020, & other comps. restarting (inc. local GR AF), the SC GR RL clubs decided to cancel the season (due to shortage of players & covid protocol volunteers, financial reasons etc.- full explanation here).






2. Details of the 2020 SEQ JAFL Gold Coast-Greater Brisbane- Sunshine Coast corridor GR AF club male & female team nos. are here






3. The Australian J. Stensholt 27.2.21

Stensholt, an expert finance journalist, wrote, re the NRL 2020 Annual Report

" The NRL... revealed a $24.7m deficit...which did not include State Of Origin...If...[SOO] was included...would have recorded just a $3.7m deficit for 2020...NRL managed to to reduce its operating expenses by a whopping 32%".
(This is a superb result for the NRL, considering the many predictions of covid financial devestation that were occuring widely until mid 2020).

"V'landys has been coy about revealing exact details of the discount that Nine & Foxtel were able to negotiate... for the first time in living memory. It has been estimated that the NRL could be forgoing $150m in broadcast revenue over 3 seasons (Nine announced to the ASX on 28.5.20 it had reduced its NRL Rights' expenses- which included some production costs- by $119m)".

"...[AFL] extensions with Seven & Foxtel throughout 2023 to 2024...lucrative deals (a record, for 2 years of Rights' $, for any code in Aust.- & possibly the only major sport in the world to obtain a post-covid Rights' increase)...will deliver $946m to the AFL... ".

"The NRL's results revealed ...revenue dropped by about 25% or more than $130m (My emphases & words in brackets)".

(Scroll to SportIndustry tweet 27.2- then to "The Australian Covid's True Cost To AFL & NRL)

For the NRL to no longer provide, in their Annual Reports, the specific details on the actual amounts of their Right' deals, obviously indicates their embarrassment: the broadcasters forced them to take a big covid-related discount.


The AFL will emerge from covid in a much stronger financial position than all other pro sports in Australia, with an amazing increase in its Rights' $ from 2023-24.
It will increase its financial superiority, cf the NRL (& all other sports), where the disparity, as R. Masters wrote in the SMH, has widened. This will enable the AFL to further fund the GR In NSW, ACT, & Qld.- & accelerate the very good growth there.
 
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General Giant

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Took eight years for Eddie to go - look how quickly NBA responded
Wait you said only AFL as a sport has the issue.... especially in Australia.

If you want to bring in the the NBA can I bring in soccer in Europe? They seem to have a major case of the racism and homophobia over there.

Or should we stick to the topic of AFL in NSW and Qld?

But I reiterate, you are a fool.
 

Pippen94

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Wait you said only AFL as a sport has the issue.... especially in Australia.

If you want to bring in the the NBA can I bring in soccer in Europe? They seem to have a major case of the racism and homophobia over there.

Or should we stick to the topic of AFL in NSW and Qld?

But I reiterate, you are a fool.
NBA acted swiftly. Problem wasn't even recognized maybe to this day by most afl fans.
Insular make up of afl will stop it growing despite money it's pouring in
 

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jatz14

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NBA acted swiftly. Problem wasn't even recognized maybe to this day by most afl fans.
Insular make up of afl will stop it growing despite money it's pouring in
A league still taking action against the guy that had the temerity to interrupt a racist team mate?

Seriously, what sort of league does that?

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jatz14

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1. COLLAPSE OF GR CLUB SNR MALE CONTACT RL IN GREATER BRISBANE IN 2020. GR CLUB JNR & SNR AF NOS. EXCEED GR JNR & SNR CONTACT RL NOS. IN BRISBANE. MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THE NRL.

In 2020, the significant decline in GR club snr male contact RL teams can only be categorised as a collapse. Greater Brisbane (not including the Ipswich District RL comp., & area) had a population of c. 2.2m.

The figures below for the no. of Greater Brisbane senior contact teams- 59 teams -are extraordinarily low, & almost shocking.

GR AF club jnr & snr player nos. have overtaken GR contact RL jnr & snr player nos. in Brisbane.

Rugby League Brisbane 2020 Open Age (adult) club male contact RL team nos.

A Grade - 8 teams
Reserve Grade-8"
Div.1- 10 "
Div.2 North- 10"
Div.3 North- 12"
Div.2 South- 4"
Div.3 South- 7"


Ipswich is technically part of the Greater Brisbane city area.

These are the club male contact RL team nos. for the Ipswich District RL (I have omitted U6-U8).

OPEN Age Volunteer Cup- 6 teams (includes 2 adult teams from Toowoomba district).

U9- 7 teams
U10- 6 "
U11- 6 "
U12- 8 "
U13- 4 "
U14- 6 "
U15- 4 "
U17- 5"





2. At least 15 MSM RL experts, & also Nine & Foxtel executives, have stated (between 2018-2020, previously linked by me in this Thread) there is an insufficient depth of talent in the NRL, causing a decline in skills- & most of these don't want the NRL to expand beyond 16 teams, for this reason.
Nine & Foxtel, & most of the others, however, want Brisbane 2, with, concurrently, 1 less team in Sydney.

On SEN Melb. Radio today :-

. A. Voss said "There is a major chasm in class" (ie skills)

. R. Craddock said, mainly paraphrasing " This is the talk (amongst NRL experts) Six teams look classes above the rest. Differences between the top 6 & bottom 6 show there is a real division in skills. Top 6 are pure quality- then it rapidly drops off".

(Scroll to R. Craddock interview- then 3 mins.15 secs. -4 mins. 40 secs)




smh.com A. Pengilly 15.3.21

Pengilly said, re the differences in NRL teams' quality

"...it prompted M. Ennis to tell Fox League he feared the gap between the NRL's top & bottom teams will only expand in the frenetic modern game".



Many NRL commentators are expressing similar views, after Round 1 2021, of the major skill differences between top 6 & bottom 6 teams.

The collapse in male contact RL teams in Greater Brisbane & Greater Sydney (excluding Penrith District RL) is adding to the lack of depth in the NRL- &, if expansion to 17 teams occurs, the quality will be diluted further.
Declines in quality of matches will probably cause a reduction in NRL crowds, ratings, Rights'$, & MSM interest & probably have a negative effect on male contact RL nos.
In contrast.

Perth football league has 52 women's teams. This doesn't include the teams in the WAFL, and I don't believe it includes youth girls either.

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jatz14

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Take auskick & female players out afl would be the same.
Why do soccer numbers drop so rapidly?

I had 2 sons play soccer. One switched to footy at 14 (his choice, I'm not a hater). He even coaches a women's soccer team, and last weekend spent 14 hrs at his soccer club (setting up for games, then serving in the bar, then attending a social). But he doesn't play there, he plays footy.

His reason is, he finds it boring to play.

My other son played until 18. He played a year of seniors.

He now plays mixed netball instead.

It seems to be a common theme.

You cannot move on local parks for 7 year Olds playing soccer, but by 17, they've all gone.

Maybe they objected to the club racist and got threatened by the A league?

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Gigantor

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8am on a Saturday morning, in any large city, there are whole paddocks dedicated to 4 and 5 year olds chasing a round ball.
That's a minimum of 100,000 of soccer's participation numbers right there.
Nothing wrong with that, kids run off some energy, parents have a coffee (or quickly duck down to the shops), all healthy family fun.
It's a nice little money earner for the clubs involved, most of whom are more cashed up than your average A-League club.
But what does it mean in the great code war across the nation?
It means absolutely nothing.
Does it make any family more interested in the A-League? YOu might attract a few extra fans each year. They may or may not remain committed to the A-League over the journey.
In fact, I'd venture to add that it's less meaningful than all those "fake" auskick numbers the AFL counts across Sydney and Brisbane.
AT the end of the day, it's just soccer. It's no more meaningful to the family than walking the dog on a Sunday morning.
 

kaypee

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Why do soccer numbers drop so rapidly?

I had 2 sons play soccer. One switched to footy at 14 (his choice, I'm not a hater). He even coaches a women's soccer team, and last weekend spent 14 hrs at his soccer club (setting up for games, then serving in the bar, then attending a social). But he doesn't play there, he plays footy.

His reason is, he finds it boring to play.

My other son played until 18. He played a year of seniors.

He now plays mixed netball instead.

It seems to be a common theme.

You cannot move on local parks for 7 year Olds playing soccer, but by 17, they've all gone.

Maybe they objected to the club racist and got threatened by the A league?

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app
I had two boys play soccer too until about 12. The also played footy all the way from Auskick and still do and they've just moved in to seniors. They dropped out of soccer for a few reasons: it was expensive and a lot of the culture of the clubs were expressly hostile to Australian football which sot of wore them down a bit. Plus the clubs were plagued by the elite coaching spivs constantly pressuring kids to signup to holiday programs etc.
My daughter is mostly a netballer but is giving soccer a go this year. The club in Melbourne's eastern suburbs has great facilities, probably better than most of the junior footy clubs in the area. That said the booming girls playing footy has been unbelievable, although anecdotally at the expense of a few of the netball clubs. She'll probably give footy a go too if soccer doesn't grab her.
 

jatz14

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I had two boys play soccer too until about 12. The also played footy all the way from Auskick and still do and they've just moved in to seniors. They dropped out of soccer for a few reasons: it was expensive and a lot of the culture of the clubs were expressly hostile to Australian football which sot of wore them down a bit. Plus the clubs were plagued by the elite coaching spivs constantly pressuring kids to signup to holiday programs etc.
My daughter is mostly a netballer but is giving soccer a go this year. The club in Melbourne's eastern suburbs has great facilities, probably better than most of the junior footy clubs in the area. That said the booming girls playing footy has been unbelievable, although anecdotally at the expense of a few of the netball clubs. She'll probably give footy a go too if soccer doesn't grab her.
I had the same experience, sort of.

I was a follower of Glory and Socceroos and Matilda's years ago.

It was my interest in women's soccer that made me curious about women's footy several years before AFLW started.

My mistake was going on soccer forums online. The relentless hatred of footy just did my head in.

Pippen is a classic example. Imagine a whole board filled with people like him. Half the time they spent more time discussing how footy sucked than discussing soccer.

It eventually stopped me enjoying the sport, remembering both my kids played it.

To the point I even really stopped caring how the Socceroos and Matilda's did, and I would support an Australian national team in anything.

I cannot complain about the actual junior clubs though. Never had any issue there, most people followed both sports.

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The Tilt

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I had the same experience, sort of.

I was a follower of Glory and Socceroos and Matilda's years ago.

It was my interest in women's soccer that made me curious about women's footy several years before AFLW started.

My mistake was going on soccer forums online. The relentless hatred of footy just did my head in.

Pippen is a classic example. Imagine a whole board filled with people like him. Half the time they spent more time discussing how footy sucked than discussing soccer.

It eventually stopped me enjoying the sport, remembering both my kids played it.

To the point I even really stopped caring how the Socceroos and Matilda's did, and I would support an Australian national team in anything.

I cannot complain about the actual junior clubs though. Never had any issue there, most people followed both sports.

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Yep, I’ve had a similar experience. I was reasonably invested in both the A-League and the Socceroos. The borderline deranged attitude towards Australian Football typically displayed Australian soccer’s true believers just turned me off eventually. I still taken an interest in soccer, but it’s waned quite a bit.
 

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