What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

Frank Gallagher

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#51
The biggest threat to either code is concussion, as time goes on the data is becoming more and more compelling, the parents of little Johnnys won't like this, inturn making basketball and soccer more appealing.
 

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NoobPie

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#53
Footy has lost out to Cricket as well. I am sure there are some golfers that could have been gun footy players. Doesn't make the sports threats to footy though.
Not least because cricket loses out to footy far more often than the other way around
 

jatz14

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#54
The biggest threat to either code is concussion, as time goes on the data is becoming more and more compelling, the parents of little Johnnys won't like this, inturn making basketball and soccer more appealing.
Soccer has been avoiding the issue of the effect of repeated heading of the ball for ages. What people are missing, is that studies in the US amongst NFL players have shown, is that it isnt actually concussion that is necessarily the issue, but repeated blows to the head. ie, you can suffer severe long term consequences, without ever getting a concussion. NFL players are at heavy risk, because the helmet protects them from concussion, to an extent, so they use their heads as weapons, and take lots of hits. Far more hits to the head than an AFL player takes. Which is were heading the ball comes in, and why soccer has been dragging its foot on the issue. They have a game that specifically calls for you to take blows to the head, repeatedly. That could become a very nasty can of worms.

The rules of AFL are designed to avoid blows to the head, where the rules of soccer call for them, legally, thats a problem.
 

Kappa

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#55
Of course, the true "sleeping giant" in all this is E-Sports, which is the fastest growing industry on the planet but yet no one here seems to talk about.

There are many E Sport leagues that are catching up in size to big traditional sports and will soon overtake them. Apex Legends for example came out last month and in a few weeks had over 50 million players signed up... A huge portion of those players are going to watch Tournaments and pro players, there will be millions and millions of dollars of prizepools and sell out arenas to watch the biggest tournaments...

If you're going to be scared about something taking over, it's not soccer.. it's E Sports.
 

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HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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#64
Lets not forget that football was in NSW and Qld before Rugby League, but they overtook us and RU in quite a short time.
Canberra is another example. I have friends who live there who are adamant that Football would’ve been Canberra’s number one sport had they put a side there instead of Rugby League.
This is why I’m 100% in support of a Gold Coast team. Are they ready? no, but the best chance the AFL has of ever establishing a strong base is now.
Two other really important markets for the AFL (although smaller and will never have sides) are Cairns and Wagga/Riverina.
 

NoobPie

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#65
Lets not forget that football was in NSW and Qld before Rugby League, but they overtook us and RU in quite a short time.
Or a large portion of the rugby union clubs players and supporters shifted to rugby league en masse.

League and union were still very similar games at that stage, of course, as well. The move was primarily based on politics rather than some affinity for a game that does not remotely resemble today's no contest for the ball turn based game
 

MC Bad Genius

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#66
Growing up in northern Sydney, I was completely and utterly into RL, as were all my friends in every sphere of my life. We all played soccer on the weekends, but completely idolised RL players and almost every afternoon was spent at the oval near our house playing RL with however many other kids were there. We all used the same derogatory language about Aussie Rules being "aerial ping pong" and made fun of the short shorts. But as a teenager I converted to our indigenous game and have never looked back. And I imagine quite a lot of others did too. There are a huge number of Sydney-siders that would follow both AFL and NRL pretty religiously and although there are still people out there that hate AFL, they're few and far between.

The newspapers are still heavily weighted towards RL (and Rugby Union to some extent), but the target demographics for print media is getting older and older each year. At the grassroots level, Australian Rules football has exploded across the city. The obvious proof of that is seeing so many more ovals with goalposts up than ever before and how many more schools offer it as a school sport.

I know this is only anecdotal evidence, but it matches some of the statistical growth that other people in this thread have mentioned. The one area it still isn't close is TV viewership, but the generational change will surely close that gap considerably as well.

Will it ever overtake RL? Maybe, but certainly for not some time. However, it might be sooner than foreseen.
 

Gigantor

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#67
Australian Football won't overtake RL in terms of TV viewership, that's unrealistic.

But can it get a significant niche for itself in the Northern markets, and the answer is a resounding yes. That's more than enough, given the total wall-to-wall domination in the Southern markets.
 

R Chee Manning

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#68
The Leagues Clubs in NSW (and to a lesser extent in Queensland) are a huge part of maintaining significant supporter bases for rugby league. That's one thing that rugby league has always had over other sports (bar bowls!).

They are significant money-earners for clubs and provide a focal point for many communities around which to base their sporting focus.

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In Vic 'The club' refers to the team.

In NSW it refers to your drinking/eating and full-on excitement entertainment venue (and your 'team').
 

Freomaniac

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#69
Nah.

Rugby League has a much better chance of turning the table on Australian football than soccer has of even rivalling the NRL let alone "laying waste" to both. Rugby League is still hugely dominant in NSW despite having has far less participants than soccer there for several decades. In traditionally the AFL's weakest city, the Swans are far bigger than the the A League franchises combined.

I think the only place that is ever happening is the seriously delusional and reality dodging fantasies of the soccer zealots
yet the A-league refuses to fold lol
 
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#70
I live in Queensland and I actually think the dominance of RL is exaggerated. Just a small example, but in our office tipping comps, there are more in the AFL comp than NRL. In terms of water cooler chat, it’s actually pretty even between NRL, AFL and soccer (more Euro than A-League) to be honest.

State of Origin is a different kettle of fish. But even that is just because it’s a such a simple and easy to follow concept. Most people are only half following and I actually know more about the players etc than they do.

RL is still the number one sport, but it’s not as big of a gap as people think imo.
 

NoobPie

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#72
I live in Queensland and I actually think the dominance of RL is exaggerated. Just a small example, but in our office tipping comps, there are more in the AFL comp than NRL. In terms of water cooler chat, it’s actually pretty even between NRL, AFL and soccer (more Euro than A-League) to be honest.

State of Origin is a different kettle of fish. But even that is just because it’s a such a simple and easy to follow concept. Most people are only half following and I actually know more about the players etc than they do.

RL is still the number one sport, but it’s not as big of a gap as people think imo.
In terms of Google trend comparisons based on the last 30 days, the NRL has about a 2 to 1 advantage compared to the AFL in Queensland


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In NSW it is 3 to 1
ACT 1.5 to 1

In terms of the other side of the Barrassi line
the NT is 3 to 1 in the AFL's favour
WA and VIC are about 92% to 8% in favour of the AFL
TAS is 93% to 7% and SA is 94% to 6%
 

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#73
I live in Queensland and I actually think the dominance of RL is exaggerated. Just a small example, but in our office tipping comps, there are more in the AFL comp than NRL. In terms of water cooler chat, it’s actually pretty even between NRL, AFL and soccer (more Euro than A-League) to be honest.

State of Origin is a different kettle of fish. But even that is just because it’s a such a simple and easy to follow concept. Most people are only half following and I actually know more about the players etc than they do.

RL is still the number one sport, but it’s not as big of a gap as people think imo.
Agreed.

A lot of Victorians live in Queensland now. It's evident from the significant support of clubs like Collingwood, Hawthorn etc up here.

Rugby League has had the advantage of both the Broncos and the Queensland origin sides being extremely successful for an extremely long time, meanwhile the local AFL sides have been dire until this year.

It's hard to appreciate how big the gap has been in performance between the local sides. Since the 2005 AFL season, the Lions have made the final once, and been bottom four 8 times. Average ladder position over this period is 13th. We have been bottom four in the past 5 years consecutively too.

Meanwhile, since the 2005 NRL season, the Broncos have missed the finals twice (and only missed finals an additional two times in their entire existence). Average ladder position over this period is 6th. The Cowboys, who also have reasonable support in the city, have averaged a finals position (8th) over the period too. On top of this, Queensland has won State of Origin 11 times out of a possible 14 since the 2005 season.

The gap is not as big as "Rugby League Stronghold" people make out IMO. When you go up past the Sunshine Coast into the country, this changes completely.

It would be interesting to see what happens if the situation reversed, and the Broncos and Queensland origin side became completely irrelevant for 15 years while the Lions dominated. The Lions have held up quite well in hostile territory all things considered IMO.
 

MC Bad Genius

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#74
I know google results aren't the be all and end all, but the ones that NoobPie posted above suggest that the difference is still quite stark. We can look at some other measures too, like average home attendance (see below), TV audience (does anyone have the figures?), maybe even football forum use (or Reddit threads?) ...

Average Home Attendance
Brisbane Broncos - 29,535
Brisbane Lions - 23,520
North Queensland Cowboys - 13,976
Gold Coast Suns - 11,939
Gold Coast Titans - 10,059
 

R Chee Manning

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#75
Maybe another metric is government investment.

At Mt Gravatt on Saturday we had the local Councillor, State MP and Federal MP - celebrating recent grants to the club totalling around $250k (for new Womens' changing sheds, new turf and a new gym).

That's chicken feed though compared to the $13million recently spent on a local rugby club at Toowong.

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