What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

Gigantor

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#76
I know google results aren't the be all and end all, but the ones that NoobPie posted above suggest that the difference is still quite stark. We can look at some other measures too, like average home attendance (see below), TV audience (does anyone have the figures?), maybe even football forum use (or Reddit threads?) ...

Average Home Attendance
Brisbane Broncos - 29,535
Brisbane Lions - 23,520
North Queensland Cowboys - 13,976
Gold Coast Suns - 11,939
Gold Coast Titans - 10,059

I thought the point of his post was that the difference isn't as huge as one might imagine (backed up by your numbers).
 

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MC Bad Genius

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#77
I thought the point of his post was that the difference isn't as huge as one might imagine (backed up by your numbers).
Yeah, my post was confusing. I was just saying that the Google results were showing a pretty big difference, but we probably need to take into other stats and provided the only ones I could find. And to be honest, we all know NRL crowds are generally lower compared to AFL crowds, so maybe we need to compare each club's attendance vs the overall competition's average attendance. Either way, if other people can look at some other statistical analysis, we could get a clearer picture. I'd say it's still a very big difference in favour of Rugby League.
 

NoobPie

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#78
I know google results aren't the be all and end all, but the ones that NoobPie posted above suggest that the difference is still quite stark. We can look at some other measures too, like average home attendance (see below), TV audience (does anyone have the figures?), maybe even football forum use (or Reddit threads?) ...

Average Home Attendance
Brisbane Broncos - 29,535
Brisbane Lions - 23,520
North Queensland Cowboys - 13,976
Gold Coast Suns - 11,939
Gold Coast Titans - 10,059

I think 2:1 that the google trends implies is more likely flattering to Australian football than it is unders. I think the 12:1 in favour of the AFL south of the Barrassi line is probably more in the stark zone

I suspect you'll find that things like attendance and participation are less than 2:1 but TV ratings would be far more than 2:1
 
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#79
Sydney and SEQld are very different places to regional NSW and Qld. AFL has significantly more chance to grow in Sydney and SEQ, as does football, Leagues heartland is regional areas where whole towns are rusted on. I see League participation in urban areas declining significantly, Union even more spectacularly and football and AFL will fill the participation void. Interestingly the heartland union schools in Sydney, the GPS schools are recognising this and shifting focus from Union to Footbal. AFL might be a step too far for them atm.
 

NoobPie

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#80
Sydney and SEQld are very different places to regional NSW and Qld. AFL has significantly more chance to grow in Sydney and SEQ, as does football, Leagues heartland is regional areas where whole towns are rusted on. I see League participation in urban areas declining significantly, Union even more spectacularly and football and AFL will fill the participation void. Interestingly the heartland union schools in Sydney, the GPS schools are recognising this and shifting focus from Union to Footbal. AFL might be a step too far for them atm.
Took me a while to know what you were talking about when referring to "football"

I would say there is a massive difference between soccer participation increasing in Gps schools and "the focus shifting" from rugby to soccer in a prestige and elite resourcing sense. Far more likely Australian football chips away at that over time than soccer
 

General Giant

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#81
Took me a while to know what you were talking about when referring to "football"

I would say there is a massive difference between soccer participation increasing in Gps schools and "the focus shifting" from rugby to soccer in a prestige and elite resourcing sense. Far more likely Australian football chips away at that over time than soccer
Been quite a few private schools putting up Aussie Rules posts and starting programs.
 
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