What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

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Angus Young

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Their is no chance AFL taking over with the amount of one sided grand finals over the last 30 years. If you don't have an apathetic bone in your body, you would've given the grand final the boot years ago!
This years Grand Final was a walk over but damm it was one hell of a game.

Last years Grand Final was also entertaining.

The GWS V Richmond GF was a huge let down.
 

BringBackTorps

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1. Wookie's BF Podcast "The State Of RL" 8.9.21

C. Woodward (who runs 81st Minute RL website, broadcasts weekly GR snr RL games in SW Sydney, & is a strong promoter of GR RL) said

"The NRL want to bring on the 17th team in Brisbane against the likes of the AFL...It's [Brisbane 2] a real threat in their [AFL] long term strategy...The AFL wants the kids, not the diehard RL & soccer fans...It's a death [for RL] by a thousand cuts [But Sydney has 8.5 NRL clubs, & its male contact GR RL nos. are still in a severe decline]

Just before covid, there were a lot of struggling clubs, with covid some [GR RL] clubs won't come back next year...The AFL are investing money [in NSW & Qld.], it will pay off long term... [RL depends on pokie funds in many areas, much more than AF. Pokie gamblers attract a much older demographic; & covid pokie restrictions, & fears of crowded spaces etc., may cause these revenues & funds to permanently & greatly decline]

All those things kill RL...RL needs to go back to its roots, send [NRL] players to these [RL heartland] regions, a couple of million each year, on top of what the AFL spends, more effort needs to be spent on the schools...a lot of the Development Officers in the NRL (due to covid cutbacks) were laid off.

I'm against weight divisions [for contact RL jnrs], there are different intellectual factors (levels of jnr maturity). Jnr weight divisions aren't in the top 10 factors for the decline in GR RL. The NRL counts (in Official participant nos.) Touch & Tag players now [The NRL wants to inflate RL nos. & disguise its major fall in male GR contact nos. according to P. Kent, Penrith's G. Alexander etc. Many NRL officials & MSM commentators, & 3 academic studies- all cited in this Thread- say fear of injury is one of the causes of the large decline in male jnr contact nos.]"
(My words in brackets)











2. SMH R. Masters 31.8.21

Masters suggests that the NRL is struggling to obtain a satisfactory offer from NINE, for a post 2022 FTA Rights' deal- & splitting the FTA Rights (eg Origin) amongst several networks may not be a panacea to obtain a "good" Rights' deal.


The AFL has a record, total $946m Seven & Foxtel Rights' deal for 2023-24.

As the NRL refuses to reveal its 8 year, post 28.5.20 deal with Foxtel for 2020-2027, it can be assumed it is very poor (Goldman Sachs & others have stated it was forced to accept a 25% reduction on its precovid total Rights' deal of $360m pa. The AFL reduction was c.13%, according to the A, & others).
A poor deal makes it far more difficult for the NRL to rebuild its male contact GR nos., & promote RL generally.








3. Pythagonrl.com 31.8.21

Liam, the owner/author of this excellent, & very analytical (he is an engineer) NRL website said

"If the NRL is expanded, I don't have any particular great hopes for the new franchise....The new team...it's not really wanted or needed".

He was once enthusiastic about a Brisbane 2 team- but has since waned considerably in his support, believing funds can be better spent elsewhere to promote RL.

 
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Rob

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Interesting read on the 2nd NRL team in Brisbane. It seems to be a remarkably similar situation to a hypothetical 3rd Perth AFL club. No obvious candidate, and those that are put up are sterile nothing teams that lack identity and (importantly) no natural fan base.

If anything, it shows how lucky the AFL was with 2nd teams in Perth and Adelaide. Both were obvious and they had no other option.
 

NoobPie

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Interesting read on the 2nd NRL team in Brisbane. It seems to be a remarkably similar situation to a hypothetical 3rd Perth AFL club. No obvious candidate, and those that are put up are sterile nothing teams that lack identity and (importantly) no natural fan base.

If anything, it shows how lucky the AFL was with 2nd teams in Perth and Adelaide. Both were obvious and they had no other option.
That's right, you had a super dominant club in Adelaide and a clear geographic distinction in WA. Neither of those appear to be the case in QLD but I guess I wouldn't know if Ipswich or Logan would rally around a joint regional team (seems unlikely)
 

Kwality

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Interesting read on the 2nd NRL team in Brisbane. It seems to be a remarkably similar situation to a hypothetical 3rd Perth AFL club. No obvious candidate, and those that are put up are sterile nothing teams that lack identity and (importantly) no natural fan base.

If anything, it shows how lucky the AFL was with 2nd teams in Perth and Adelaide. Both were obvious and they had no other option.
:thumbsu:

A game every week is a consideration when looking at both these heartland AFL towns.
 

RedV3x

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A game every week is a consideration when looking at both these heartland AFL towns.
A game every week is a big consideration when adding a big extra game to the big cities of Perth and Adelaide.
It was also a big consideration in adding GWS to Sydney and even the Suns near Brisbane.
The NRL obviously are thinking that they'll add a big game to Brisbane.
With the addition of a 17th side the NRL are gaining a game every fortnight in Brisbane but losing an established NRL game elsewhere.
Thus the equation is - which is better ?
In the long term the odds have to be with the new side but in the meantime.....?
 

Kwality

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A game every week is a big consideration when adding a big extra game to the big cities of Perth and Adelaide.
It was also a big consideration in adding GWS to Sydney and even the Suns near Brisbane.
The NRL obviously are thinking that they'll add a big game to Brisbane.
With the addition of a 17th side the NRL are gaining a game every fortnight in Brisbane but losing an established NRL game elsewhere.
Thus the equation is - which is better ?
In the long term the odds have to be with the new side but in the meantime.....?
Whether its Ipswlch or Redcliffe, both have strong sporting communities, its a matter of engaging with them.


Would moving the Suns towards Brisbane be for the better? I'd certainly like to see their FIXture involve playing the bigger Melbourne clubs at Carrara during school hols, with the Suns playing consecutive games at home to suit.

I've long held the belief that the old home & away concept that underwrites our the national competition is not fit for purpose.
Home is no longer the venue, its the city where the game is played, & away is about travel, not the venue.
At stake is the membership model & money & this can be addressed by more crowds.

The AFL have a long held policy of moving games out of Melbourne for money & the clubs, just not to SA or WA. Members of travelling clubs get make up games & other than the usual dislike of Docklands, it appears painless.

Its a given that AFL fans go to games more than their NRL counterparts & whether thats due to using suburban venues is moot.
 

weewilly

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Interesting read on the 2nd NRL team in Brisbane. It seems to be a remarkably similar situation to a hypothetical 3rd Perth AFL club. No obvious candidate, and those that are put up are sterile nothing teams that lack identity and (importantly) no natural fan base.

If anything, it shows how lucky the AFL was with 2nd teams in Perth and Adelaide. Both were obvious and they had no other option.
The AFL strategy is the right one = building the game up from the grass roots!
The 17 NRL team in QLD will dilute the playing standard and add a weekly bye and have no advantage there and the new team would have to be successful on the field very quickly to build a new fan base!
 

weewilly

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Whether its Ipswlch or Redcliffe, both have strong sporting communities, its a matter of engaging with them.


Would moving the Suns towards Brisbane be for the better? I'd certainly like to see their FIXture involve playing the bigger Melbourne clubs at Carrara during school hols, with the Suns playing consecutive games at home to suit.

I've long held the belief that the old home & away concept that underwrites our the national competition is not fit for purpose.
Home is no longer the venue, its the city where the game is played, & away is about travel, not the venue.
At stake is the membership model & money & this can be addressed by more crowds.

The AFL have a long held policy of moving games out of Melbourne for money & the clubs, just not to SA or WA. Members of travelling clubs get make up games & other than the usual dislike of Docklands, it appears painless.

Its a given that AFL fans go to games more than their NRL counterparts & whether thats due to using suburban venues is moot.
Australian Football fans have been going to matches in large numbers from the early 1900s esp in Melbourne and that massive supporter base has stuck through many generations of supporters/members down the decades even when the clubs played at their suburban grounds and still continues to this day at the MCG, Marvel Stadium,Optus Stadium,Adelaide Oval,The Gabba and SCG!
 

Aussie in exile

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The AFL strategy is the right one = building the game up from the grass roots!
The 17 NRL team in QLD will dilute the playing standard and add a weekly bye and have no advantage there and the new team would have to be successful on the field very quickly to build a new fan base!
Much the same as a 3rd AFL club would in Sydney as pointed out by many posters.
 

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Kwality

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Australian Football fans have been going to matches in large numbers from the early 1900s esp in Melbourne and that massive supporter base has stuck through many generations of supporters/members down the decades even when the clubs played at their suburban grounds and still continues to this day at the MCG, Marvel Stadium,Optus Stadium,Adelaide Oval,The Gabba and SCG!
Best crowd for the WAFL GF for a bloody long time, nearly 29k, irrelevant here, but Subi did it again.

Its a given that AFL fans go to games more than their NRL counterparts & whether thats due to using suburban venues is moot.
 

RedV3x

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Much the same as a 3rd AFL club would in Sydney as pointed out by many posters.
A 17th NRL team in Brisbane will add a new game whilst losing an established game.
The nett result could be a loss until the new side builds up support.
The new teams in the AFL added games so were a win from day one.
A 3rd team in Sydney would be presumably a win because the AFL wouldn't add a 3rd team without it's complement.
Are you saying that a 3rd team in Sydney would be like the NRL because the AFL is entrenched across Sydney ?
 

RedV3x

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Best crowd for the WAFL GF for a bloody long time, nearly 29k, irrelevant here, but Subi did it again.
Best crowd for the WAFL GF for a bloody long time, nearly 30k, best since 2002.
Actually would have been higher but the day itself was inclement and Subiaco were playing (predictable premiers and lowly supported)
Having no AFL finalists and the AFL grand final probably helped, though.
I attended the WAFL finals and the good news is that the crowd is basically young.
What the WAFL shows is that grassroots is always important as a spine.
 

jatz14

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Best crowd for the WAFL GF for a bloody long time, nearly 30k, best since 2002.
Actually would have been higher but the day itself was inclement and Subiaco were playing (predictable premiers and lowly supported)
Having no AFL finalists and the AFL grand final probably helped, though.
I attended the WAFL finals and the good news is that the crowd is basically young.
What the WAFL shows is that grassroots is always important as a spine.
I think the AFLW is having an affect as well. My sister's family went, and the prime motivator for that was her 15 year old daughter.

I have no doubt her playing footy got her interested enough to want to go to a WAFL GF, and it's AFLW that got her playing.

A key reason for the woman's footy strategy in NSW and Qld, and still a key advantage the AFL has over the NRL.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Cubs2Lions

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A 3rd team in Sydney would be presumably a win because the AFL wouldn't add a 3rd team without it's complement.
Are you saying that a 3rd team in Sydney would be like the NRL because the AFL is entrenched across Sydney ?
Where would a 3rd team in NSW be located though, when the opporunity arises for future expansion of the AFL/AFLW in NSW?
 

TWLS

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Interesting read on the 2nd NRL team in Brisbane. It seems to be a remarkably similar situation to a hypothetical 3rd Perth AFL club. No obvious candidate, and those that are put up are sterile nothing teams that lack identity and (importantly) no natural fan base.

If anything, it shows how lucky the AFL was with 2nd teams in Perth and Adelaide. Both were obvious and they had no other option.
Well I will go against the flow so as to speak. I live in the Northern Suburbs of Perth on the coast having lived south of the river previously and we moved for family reasons.
The growth from Joondaulp up to Yanchep and equivalent inland suburbs is steady and will continue so according to projections. When we landed here 20 years ago no obvious reasons for 3rd team. But that was then and to day is now.
Because geographically the 2 existing AFL teams are defined sort of - Loads of split familys footy wise etc etc.
Sometime in the far future the far Northern area as above will be a big population and thats when IMHO any demand for 3rd team will come the base for that team.
We have a problem in this country people have a hard time thinking and planning for the future.
 

Gigantor

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Well I will go against the flow so as to speak. I live in the Northern Suburbs of Perth on the coast having lived south of the river previously and we moved for family reasons.
The growth from Joondaulp up to Yanchep and equivalent inland suburbs is steady and will continue so according to projections. When we landed here 20 years ago no obvious reasons for 3rd team. But that was then and to day is now.
Because geographically the 2 existing AFL teams are defined sort of - Loads of split familys footy wise etc etc.
Sometime in the far future the far Northern area as above will be a big population and thats when IMHO any demand for 3rd team will come the base for that team.
We have a problem in this country people have a hard time thinking and planning for the future.
Well, if a Tassie team comes in as the 19th team in the next 5 years, I reckon it's odds on that the AFL Commission is already thinking about that 20th team, and in terms of financial viability, it's a 3rd Perth team no. 1 choice, and daylight is 2nd.
 

RedV3x

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I think the AFLW is having an affect as well. My sister's family went, and the prime motivator for that was her 15 year old daughter.
I have no doubt her playing footy got her interested enough to want to go to a WAFL GF, and it's AFLW that got her playing.
Quite possibly. Playing football might draw you closer to WAFL than AFL.

A key reason for the woman's footy strategy in NSW and Qld, and still a key advantage the AFL has over the NRL.
Strategy or what started out as good luck but has become strategy and a key advantage as you state.
 

RedV3x

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Well, if a Tassie team comes in as the 19th team in the next 5 years, I reckon it's odds on that the AFL Commission is already thinking about that 20th team.
That's a pretty safe bet.

in terms of financial viability, it's a 3rd Perth team no. 1 choice, and daylight is 2nd.
Theoretical viability because of the population, but look at Melbourne - it's not the number of teams but the distribution of support.
If Tasmania comes on board then it will be a win for another "boutique" model.
Tasmania and Canberra are not too dissimilar and a Canberra team would allow more Sydney GWS games
and could be linked to a Macarthur region.
A Brisbane2 or Sydney3 would leverage a lot more benefit than a Perth2.
Everybody has seemed to have forgotten about N.Z. which could be returned to after Covid19.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Interesting read on the 2nd NRL team in Brisbane. It seems to be a remarkably similar situation to a hypothetical 3rd Perth AFL club. No obvious candidate, and those that are put up are sterile nothing teams that lack identity and (importantly) no natural fan base.
I'm afraid you're incorrect on that one. There is an obvious candidate with an identity and a natural fan base: Redcliffe. And it looks like Redcliffe are going to be announced as the 17th club this week, according to the SMH.


This is very good news for the AFL. Redcliffe and surrounds have never been an Aussie Rules area, they've always been very dyed-in-the-wool rugby league heartland, so there's no real loss with that area gaining an NRL team. But more importantly, it means Ipswich didn't get the nod. Ipswich is an area that the Lions have made a huge investment in with their upcoming training facility and AFLW base, and now they won't have competition from an NRL team in the area to win over the kids. And Ipswich is a pretty sweet plum, it's growing faster than anywhere else in South East Queensland, with more development areas in the pipeline.

Screenshot_20211004-191706_Docs.jpg


So this might do a lot to help AFL overtake NRL in more of Queensland.
 

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