What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

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BringBackTorps

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G. McLachlan said 23.9.21, re the 2021 GR season


"Even in this challenging year, the following numbers highlight the strength of community football, nationally:

  • Women and girls’ participation numbers continue to surge, with community club participation up five per cent on pre-COVID figures from 2019.

  • Overall community football participation is at 99 per cent of 2019 numbers, a fantastic outcome given all the disruptions faced in the past two years

  • Youth male community football is up 1.5 per cent (v 2019 total)

  • NAB AFL Auskick participation has rebounded to be just shy of 2019 levels

  • The legacy of having so much AFL football played in Queensland in 2020, including the Toyota AFL Grand Final at the Gabba, has had a positive impact in the state, with record-breaking participation and community Auskick up by more than 28 per cent (My emphasis)".

A 28% increase in Qld. is huge, probably without precedent in 1 year only, for such a large statistical area.
(Possibly the only exception is soccer statistics- when they have added a huge increase of "participants" in 1 year- vast majority of whom were one one-off Gala Days, community events etc.).

We will have to see later, when club & school comp. details are released in early 2022, how much of this 28% Qld. increase relates to club & school comp. player nos.- by far the most important metric.
The AFL, like all other sports in Australia, uses fluff nos. also- ie one-off Gala Days, community AF sport events, school phys. ed programs etc. These have only minor relevance. I strongly suspect that these areas are where most of the 28% "participation" increase derives.
 
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RedV3x

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The A-League will make a $30m bet on a bold digital strategy designed to win the hearts and minds of soccer fans....., hopes will arrest a decline in crowd and broadcast numbers amid falling interest in the code in recent years".
I go to the football to watch football (AFL, WAFL, WAAFL, AFLW), watch football on FTA (AFL, WAFL, AFLW) and even stream AFL and randomns occasionally. I don't see how a better digital service could improve my appreciation for football other than re-arrange my technical viewing.

I don't the details so could someone explain how more is better or how it is better.
 

RedV3x

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The NRL is locked in a sporting turf war with the AFL in Queensland and a second Brisbane club will give rugby league more ammunition to win a new generation of fans and participants.
Note, "generational".

M. Tripp, Melb. Storm Chairman, said...“While the talent pool will be thin for a period.... There will be a knock-on effect.
People are already glossing over the possible negative effects which could detract from this "generational" take up.

There will be greater challenges for the AFL, in NSW & Qld., in its promotions of female GR AF from the NRL/female contact RL in future decades.
No. There will simply be more options. Girls already have the option of soccer. Why aren't NRL types mentioning soccer ?
There should be r.u. options for girls already as well.
There is a couple lack of consistency from NRL types. They try and distance AFL from NRL then bundle them together as "contact" just for women.
People, and women are people choose sports that appeal to them for various reasons.
1. Soccer - simple, fun game that can take players on a long pathway if they develop the necessary skill.
2. AFL - free-flowing, fun game, with some contact but not seen as dangerous with pathways to attainable professional status.
3. R.U. -scrappy, fun game, some heavy contact and potentially dangerous.
4. NRL. - stop/start, brutal game, constant contact and always dangerous.

If I was the NRL I would be looking at the NRL's major challenge and that is concussion.
IF the NRL are not seen to be acting on concussion then they're wasting their development efforts.
 

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BringBackTorps

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Competition is likely to increase in Qld., NSW, & ACT for female athletes, between AF & contact RL/RU.
Currently, however, AF has much greater club & school comp. female player nos. in Qld. NSW, & ACT, cf club & school comp. female contact RL/RU player nos.

Sun sisters to miss AFLW season after accepting rugby deals
Sarah Black 7.10.21
Why not share? #AFLW


New Sun Teagan Levi. Picture: Getty Images

GOLD Coast sisters Maddi and Teagan Levi have accepted full-time contracts with the Australian Rugby Women's program, and will sit out the upcoming NAB AFLW season.
Maddi recently represented Australia at the Tokyo Olympics, while Teagan has been a member of the Australian under-18 side.
Teagan was recently drafted to the Suns with pick No.6, and was heavy favourite to go at No.1 before Charlie Rowbottom nominated the Queensland draft pool.


It appears that RA did not allow the same degree of flexibility in their time-demands on the Levi sisters, that the AFLW allowed them.
It is a one year contract, so hopefully the sisters can return for the December 2022 AFLW season.
 
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NoobPie

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Another element here is that touch footy has grown as a fun and easy alternative to full contact league.
I reckon though it is questionable how much touch football can and does substitute for serious sports participation

Here are the junior participation rates in NSW and QLD....also worth noting that a fair chunk of rugby league juniors would also play touch football

NSW

1633653678597.png


Queensland

1633653999432.png
 

PhatBoy

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There are some very non politically correct answers for why many parents don't want their kids playing rugby league even if they love the sport in these states. Certain trends in recent decades have made it hard for many kids to be physically competitive. If you take a look at a typical junior rugby league environment, there is a body type that is very far outside the Australian mainstream. Puberty comes at different times for different people, at the age when you might want to learn the game there are boys who are the size of grown men. What do you with your average 13 year old if he is supposed have a 90 kg boy run at him.

AFL even at the professional level but also at juniors is a place for body frames that are much closer to the average. Of course professional AFL players have extraordinary aerobic capacity, but in terms of height and weight it is a much more attainable look for most people. If I am a mum or dad looking for a footy code for my son, I'd pick AFL over NRL every day of the week and I say that as a genuine fan of both.

I’m a bit undecided on it. My son is tiny even for an under 12s kid but our favourite player was Jake Friend who had just about the most textbook defensive technique I’ve ever seen for tackling guys 25-30kg heavier than himself. Easier when you’re an adult quite obviously as you can still be very physically strong even if you’re small. But I’ve always tried to teach him to get his technique right and even the big kids of islander descent will fall just as easily.

We are lucky in the central west in that there isn’t a huge junior islander population to scare away the smaller kids and junior footy is thriving here compared to a few years back - there has been a new unaffiliated junior club spring up and a few of the smaller one club towns have several teams in some age groups.

I can see why parents are scared off a bit but the safety measures are quite stringent to ensure that the kids who are stupidly big for their age can’t do a lot of damage
 

Blackhawk42

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There are some very non politically correct answers for why many parents don't want their kids playing rugby league even if they love the sport in these states. Certain trends in recent decades have made it hard for many kids to be physically competitive. If you take a look at a typical junior rugby league environment, there is a body type that is very far outside the Australian mainstream. Puberty comes at different times for different people, at the age when you might want to learn the game there are boys who are the size of grown men. What do you with your average 13 year old if he is supposed have a 90 kg boy run at him.

AFL even at the professional level but also at juniors is a place for body frames that are much closer to the average. Of course professional AFL players have extraordinary aerobic capacity, but in terms of height and weight it is a much more attainable look for most people. If I am a mum or dad looking for a footy code for my son, I'd pick AFL over NRL every day of the week and I say that as a genuine fan of both.
No need to be PC. It's just the nature of the sport.

I always come back to a personal story on this topic. An ex of mine from country NSW had a 16 year old brother who was in the Canberra Raiders squad. He's built like a brick poohouse but not super tall (maybe 5'8 at the time). Lost his spot in the squad because they brought in 3 'islander' boys from overseas. The family was frustrated at the talent pathway because despite being regional NSW, multiple AFL players had come from their small town because the grassroots support and opportunities were far greater than the NRL were providing.
 

PhatBoy

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No need to be PC. It's just the nature of the sport.

I always come back to a personal story on this topic. An ex of mine from country NSW had a 16 year old brother who was in the Canberra Raiders squad. He's built like a brick poohouse but not super tall (maybe 5'8 at the time). Lost his spot in the squad because they brought in 3 'islander' boys from overseas. The family was frustrated at the talent pathway because despite being regional NSW, multiple AFL players had come from their small town because the grassroots support and opportunities were far greater than the NRL were providing.

Rugby league is the best talent identification sport in the world just about - the amount of kids I know of just from my rough region who have been in academy and development squads since basically primary school and go on to make the top level is staggering but the offset of that is that kids who aren’t at that level early on often get lost to the sport because they don’t receive the same recognition and development as the kids who show a bit at a younger age. What I liked about league for a long time before that became the case was that hard work and attitude and good old fashioned toughness would get players across the line where they lacked talent. From my home town Josh Miller, who was twice a player of the year at Canberra, is a good example. He wasn’t skilled, wasn’t fast, he was just blessed with a superhuman tolerance for putting his body on the line and as a consequence he built a career to be proud of. Given his fairly unremarkable physical attributes I don’t think that would happen now
 

thedank

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Problem is that there is no easy solution.

Keep it as an age-based competition and it massively disadvantages the caucasian kids, turn it into a weight-based competition and it massively disadvantages the Polynesian kids.
There is an easy solution, but people won't like it
 

PhatBoy

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What on earth could you be basing that claim on?

Read what I wrote.

Their strike rate of identifying kids at almost non-competitive age levels who go on to play at or near the highest level is very good.


There’s no need to arc up about it - it speaks to many things including a) the small talent pool compared to other sports, b) the simplicity of the game in order to know that an 11-12 year old will be able to make it.

People get sick of reading ‘I played the game or achieved such and such so I’m an expert’ I get that.

But as someone who spent a decade doing nothing but writing stories about kids across western nsw being selected for this academy or this development squad or this representative team, and then going on to see how many of them have made the NRL or played professionally in England or wherever, they do it well regardless of what you might think of it as a sport or an organisation.

Phil Gould invested a lot of time in areas west of the blue mountains and it is working. And these kids aren’t 17-18 year olds who suddenly come from nowhere, they are singled out when they have not even reached puberty half the time.
 

NoobPie

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Read what I wrote.

Their strike rate of identifying kids at almost non-competitive age levels who go on to play at or near the highest level is very good.


There’s no need to arc up about it - it speaks to many things including a) the small talent pool compared to other sports, b) the simplicity of the game in order to know that an 11-12 year old will be able to make it.

People get sick of reading ‘I played the game or achieved such and such so I’m an expert’ I get that.

But as someone who spent a decade doing nothing but writing stories about kids across western nsw being selected for this academy or this development squad or this representative team, and then going on to see how many of them have made the NRL or played professionally in England or wherever, they do it well regardless of what you might think of it as a sport or an organisation.

Phil Gould invested a lot of time in areas west of the blue mountains and it is working. And these kids aren’t 17-18 year olds who suddenly come from nowhere, they are singled out when they have not even reached puberty half the time.

Not arcing up, dude. Genuinely laughed when I read it I thought it was so strange for an adult to say.

It doesn't matter how much you know about how RL goes about talent identification or how effective you think it is, you simply have no basis whatosever to suggest it is better than every other sport in the world.
 

PhatBoy

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Not arcing up, dude. Genuinely laughed when I read it I thought it was so strange for an adult to say.

It doesn't matter how much you know about how RL goes about talent identification or how effective you think it is, you simply have no basis whatosever to suggest it is better than every other sport in the world.

Well I’ll say this: it’s better than cricket. It’s better than AFL. With AFL it’s because largely, I’d say, body type doesn’t play nearly as big a role in AFL so kids aren’t getting developed and identified simply because they are built a certain way. It’s evidenced in AFL by the amount of guys who come into the top level as mature age players. It’s incredibly rare in NRL.


Basketball is the only team mainstream sport in the world which would have the same sort of dependence on body types as what league does.

The whole point of non-industry people talking on a forum is for making largely unsubstantiated opinionated statements and that’s what I’ve done but I would be surprised if there’s other team sports in the world that are better at identifying and developing kids at such a young age and getting them through to the top as what the NRL is. As I said it’s not some mark of brilliance as it is a small player pool relative to other games and it’s largely related to physical attributes
 

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Gigantor

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I sort of get the point being made.
If, for arguments sake, you see massive 13 year old running over the other kids at your local park, there is probably a 50% chance of that kid becoming an NRL professional.
You virtually don't need to see any other evidence. You'd hope they can pick the ball off the ground or be able to catch a 2m throw, which most should be able to do.
 

The_Wookie

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Read what I wrote.

Their strike rate of identifying kids at almost non-competitive age levels who go on to play at or near the highest level is very good.
Thats mostly because NRL Clubs are still involved in development from the ground up. AFL clubs dropped their Under 19s sides decades ago in favour of a centralised AFL system - the NAB Under 18s (formerly TAC Cup).
 

kaypee

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Thats mostly because NRL Clubs are still involved in development from the ground up. AFL clubs dropped their Under 19s sides decades ago in favour of a centralised AFL system - the NAB Under 18s (formerly TAC Cup).
The AFL is pretty good at identifying talent. I've been involved in junior footy for 15 years with my kids, and the guns get spotted in under 10s and then ushered in to the right pathways (including sports scholarships at private schools) and are strongly encouraged to stick with footy over other sports. I remember Finlay Macrae in tackers and he was so far ahead of the other kids it was obvious he was going to get an AFL gig if he kept at it.
 

Cubs2Lions

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Two new QLD clubs: Reason 18-team NRL competition is gathering momentum
The NRL are exploring the possibility of an 18th NRL franchise joining the 17th Brisbane expansion team in the next five years as the game looks to increase its earning potential.

The Daily Telegraph reported most NRL clubs believe an 18-team competition is more appropriate than 17 due to the fact it means an extra game each weekend.

The NRL are set to grant the 17th license to a Brisbane expansion team in the coming days, with Redcliffe tipped to edge out the Brisbane Fireharwks and the Brisbane Jets.

The NRL were reluctant to bring two teams in at once, but the consensus is that the game should push towards an 18-team competition to avoid one team having a bye each round.

The move would allow for the NRL to take advantage of increased broadcaster revenue from showing nine games a week as opposed to eight, which is the current model.

Roosters’ CEO Nick Politis told The Daily Telegraph the 18th franchise could go to either of the expected failed bids, the Firehawks or the Jets.

“We should have two new clubs in Queensland,” Politis told The Telegraph.

“We need to grow and we need new customers. More eyeballs on TV and more product will bring more revenue from the broadcasters and that’s what we rely on more than anything else.

“You do that by increasing the number of clubs, have an extra game and go into new areas.

“The three groups bidding to become the 17th team are all financially strong with good business structures. Why turn two of them away?

“They should be encouraged to be patient and eventually become the 18th team or we look at an area like Rockhampton.”

Watch ‘Wild Wests: Tales from Tiger Town’ an exclusive Fox League behind-the-scenes production on demand on Kayo > Click here to watch

While having five teams in one of rugby league’s heartlands Queensland is an obvious step for the 18th license there are also calls tro grow the game in other areas like Perth and Adelaide, while a second New Zealand team has also been put forward.

A team in Perth or New Zealand would provide the NRL with more flexibility in their scheduling due to different time zones.

A 7:30pm start during winter in Western Australia would be 9:30pm on the east coast, which could result in a four-game Super Saturday.

Meanwhile the Sunday twilight fixture that struggles for attendance at the ground but remains strong in television ratings would still be a 4pm kick-off in Perth allowing more fans to go through the gates.

An extra New Zealand team would also help with the Friday 6pm fixture due to the time zone flexibiliity.

There have also been calls for the NRL to expand into the Pacific Islands or Papua New Guinea, but the cost of such a venture would outweigh the positives for the governing body at this stage.

The argument against an 18-team competition centres around doubts there is enough playing talent to make two more competitive teams and keep the existing 16 clubs strong.
 

BringBackTorps

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1. Adding Brisbane 2 should give RL a big boost in Qld.- as will a further Qld. NRL team no.18, if it eventuates, & is successful.
These developments would hinder AF's growth in Qld.

Daily Telegraph B. Read P. Badel 14.10.21

"NRL Expansion: Peter V’landys says Dolphins will be test case as magic number of 18 comes into view

“....If it goes well, we would look at an 18th team reasonably quickly,” V’landys said.
“This expansionary move with the Dolphins will show us if adding extra teams gets us that growth that we desire.

“We are agile, we will always do what is in the best interests of the game and if there is an appetite to keep growing the game, we will look at that scenario.

What expansion means for the NRL: The new Dolphins NRL club will see one club enjoy a bye each weekend of the 2023 season and beyond, allowing players a chance to rest and recover. The 17th team could also see the competition stretched out for longer than the current 25 round season and result in a multi-million dollar injection into the code.

V’landys and Abdo have both preached the importance of growth as a means not only to increase the game’s coffers, but also to ward off the AFL...
The game’s existing broadcasting deal with Foxtel runs until the end of 2027, suggesting the logical time to add another side would be for the 2028 season.
“That would give us sufficient time to bed down the existing structures and make sure we have something really compelling for the next rights deal,” Abdo said.

“I firmly believe in the growth of the game and we need to consolidate our existing markets before we expand anywhere else.

“There is a lot of competition up there from the AFL so we can‘t take that region for granted (My emphases)" ".






2. From Wookie sports.industry.com 16.10
Wookie said "NRL ratings on Brisbane FTA averaged 101,000. AFL ratings on BRisane FTA TV average 36,000. Not possible to breakdown Fox or streaming, so this data is largely irrevant.".


The Broncos & other NRL games were always on Brisbane Prime Time FTA Friday night etc., & the AFL in Brisbane was usually on a Seven secondary channel, the closeness of these ratings' figures is a pleasant surprise. The Broncos' poor form, however, would have diminished their ratings.

Historically, it has been shown that putting the same program on at the same time & day, but switching it to a secondary channel, can reduce the ratings by half- or even a bigger reduction.
In this context of AFL games on secondary channels in Brisbane (& Sydney), it makes the AFL FTA ratings there more meritorious.




EDIT:

Part of the License requirements for the Dolphins was that this NRL club had to spend $2m pa (I assume in perpetuity, indexed for CPI) on growing GR RL in their area.
This amount is unprecedented in Aust., for a Club responsibility in any professional code.

It will be interesting to observe how much GR contact RL grows in the Dolphins' area over the next 5 years- & it will grow, with such a very high, & concentrated level of expenditure, on local GR RL.
 
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BringBackTorps

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SMH R. Masters 8.10.21

Masters claims the NRL is adopting a defensive "Fortress RL" policy in its heartland, & is not prepared to aggressively & directly challenge AF in AF heartland areas- whilst the AFL has adopted an aggressive, confident approach to expand directly into RL heartland areas.

Masters cites Sports' Strategy academic, Dr H. Fujak, that the NRL has adopted a strategic policy of "Fortress RL" to try to protect its ascendancy in RL heartland areas.

www.smh.com.au

The key difference between NRL and AFL expansion
The NRL’s fortification of Queensland is akin to Trump’s wall, while the AFL’s $200m investment in GWS and the Suns resembles the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
www.smh.com.au
www.smh.com.au




This strategic approach of the NRL (ie not to fund RL strongly, & attack the AFL directly, in AF heartlands) has inherent flaws.

The AFL & its clubs derive much greater revenues & profits than the NRL & their clubs- so the AFL's genuine, direct expansion into NSW & Qld., with greater spending & other expansionist strategies etc. will continue indefinitely.

As it is incontrovertible that AF is having strong, long term growth in NSW, ACT, & Qld., RL is exposing itself to slow, but inexorable, decline- the current trends will continue. Declining male GR contact RL nos., from comments by RL officials (inc. P. V'landys etc.) & RL MSM experts, appear to be causing particular anxiety in recent times...but will the Dolphins significantly ameliorate the problem, over the long term, in SEQ?

The effect of all the increment growth/advances in NSW, Qld., & ACT, over the next few decades, is greater than what each "individual advance" seemingly represents. With hindsight, each small AF advance assumes a much greater cultural & sporting significance much later.

I am also surprised the article did not address RL's unhealthy dependency on pokie machine revenues- whose future revenues ( & distributions to NRL & GR RL clubs) are probably in decline.
AF, cf RL, is much less dependent on pokie revenues.
 
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RedV3x

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Masters claims the NRL is adopting a defensive "Fortress RL" policy in its heartland, & is not prepared to aggressively & directly challenge AF in AF heartland areas
Apart from Melbourne, yes, the NRL is consolidating in Australia and expanding in N.Z.

whilst the AFL has adopted an aggressive, confident approach to expand directly into RL heartland areas.
Well, the AFL wants to expand where it is not already strong - full stop. Forget the "heartland" crap.
Queensland is and has been hotly contested for some time now.
N.S.W. is a soccer state except for professional level.
The AFL was investing heavily in New Zealand before stadium and Covid problems.
If the AFL revisits N.Z. is it really attacking some "hearland" ?
Did the Force, Rebels and Storm attack the AFL's heartland ?
It's quite childish really. A business wants to expand it's business by developing new markets.
 

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