What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

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Bjo187

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League has to be one of the least skillful games in the world. Basically catching a dimpled ball from 1 m away with barely any pressure, or throwing a ball 1m away under arm with two hands and running at the opposition to get tackled. It seems bar a couple of positions it's just the natural aesthetics of an athlete that determine making it or not.
 

RedV3x

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League has to be one of the least skillful games in the world.
Substitute "ability" for "skill" and it's a different story.
There is no skill in being a marathon runner but it is a rare ability.
Basically in r.l. you need the ability to absorb punishment.
 

jatz14

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1. abc.net T. Holmes 23.10.21

The latest Cricket Australia 2020/21 census of its registered player nos. show there has been an alarming drop of 24% overall- but female nos. are up 17% (& cricket was much less affected by covid, cf winter GR football codes, for most of its summer season).

Also, Holmes article has AusPlay survey nos. for 2019. Whilst AusPlay nos. are inaccurate & misleading (in their small survey, play only once a year in a sport or activity, then AusPlay records you as a "participant"), it is probably useful as a guide of trends in the various sports.

"Sport Australia's 2019 participation survey showed the top 10 sports for adults and children.

AdultsChildren
1. Recreational walking1. Swimming
2. Gym2. Soccer
3. Athletics3. Gymnastics
4. Swimming4. Dancing
5. Cycling5. Basketball
6. Bushwalking6. Australian Rules football
7. Yoga7. Netball
8. Soccer8. Tennis
9. Golf9. Athletics
10. Tennis10. Cricket".



The decline of registered cricket nos., if it continues, will probably hurt also jnr GR AF in the long term around Australia, much more so than other sports.

This is because, at jnr club GR AF & jnr club cricket levels only, there is a close symbiosis between the 2 jnr levels of each sport, in Vic., WA, SA, Tas., & NT.
Not only do they share the same ovals & clubrooms (with both sports' team photos on the walls, Premier pennants hanging from the ceilings etc.; &, on the cusp of seasons, cricketers train in the nets etc., whilst their co-tenant AF players do their preseason training at & around the oval).

Also, there is often joint fund raising BBQ's/fun games etc.; &/or fund raising efforts involve promotion/invitations of these events with both AF & cricket co- tenants
Joint jnr player recruitment campaigns (official, or word-of-mouth) are also very common.

Possibly the biggest connection, however, is that it is common to have the same parents on both the co-tenant jnr AF & cricket clubs' committees; ditto often the same jnr coaches. Enormous & mutually beneficial for both jnr GR AF & cricket.

This symbiosis is certainly not as strong now in NSW (excluding sthn NSW), Qld., & the ACT- but, in normal circumstances, it can be expected to grow much stronger in future decades (due to shared ovals). This is very important there, since AF does not have the same cultural relevance, cf Vic., WA, SA, Tas. & NT- thus this direct & crucial exposure to AF, for many jnr cricketers in NSW, ACT, & Qld., might be their one & only major direct "entry point" to GR AF.

If cricket continues to decline, this symbiosis is weakened- & AF will be most affected, restricting jnr GR AF growth in NSW, ACT, & Qld.






2.


I have provided detailed reasons many times before in my posts- if you disagree with my reasons, perhaps you should specifically address them, & give your detailed views of why I might be wrong.

Perhaps you can also explain what you know, that P. V'landys, A. Abdo, T. Greenberg, P. Beattie, J. Grant, & many MSM RL experts do not know, re reasons & solutions for the severe decline in GR male contact RL nos.; & threat that AF poses to RL.


Ditto my above comments to you.




NRL & RA regard, correctly, AF as their direct competitor- as all 3 sports are contact sports, requiring much courage to play. These criteria do not apply to soccer (although soccer, basketball, netball, tennis, cricket, the gym, walking, running, internet gaming etc. would be regarded as indirect competitors for AF).
Not one footy club I have ever been connected to, was associated with cricket.

The ovals were not used for cricket. Where there were shared facilities, there was zero overlap in the clubs.

Footy clubs I was associated with were stand alone. With 1 having an associated netball team.

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jatz14

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Are these your words or some official's ?
Yet another post where you are all over the place mixing your comment and quoted comment.
You seem to mixing junior football and youth football with AFLW and then other sports.
It's very confusing. Again, I suggest you post in smaller concise posts so as to make your point clear.



One of the most bizarre b.s. statements I've ever seen.



Again are you talking about junior amateur of professional level ?
Soccer has the most injuries across the board.
Basketball injuries tend to take off the older a person gets.



Yes, junior, amateur and professional women's football is more congested and yes, it needs to be more free-flowing.
one reason is that women haven't been playing the game long enough to perfect that style of play.
Yes, maybe the women's game should look at their game and make tweaks - but that's a subject in itself.
But congestion doesn't necessarily increase injuries - congestion SLOWS PLAY, lessening impacts.
You only have to watch that video of VFL big hits to realise that these guys were out in the open travelling at speed.
SPEED causes injuries - all sorts of injuries..
Speed = momentum.

Momentum = force.

Force = damage.



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jatz14

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Substitute "ability" for "skill" and it's a different story.
There is no skill in being a marathon runner but it is a rare ability.
Basically in r.l. you need the ability to absorb punishment.
A comment I have heard repeatedly from players that played footy and league is, many more hits and more forceful hits in league, but you are almost always prepared for and braced for the contact, so it doesn't really affect you to much.

You get fewer tackles in footy, and they tend to be less forceful, but you are more likely to be taken unawares or in a position where you cannot brace or prepare.

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RedV3x

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Speed = momentum.
Momentum = force.
Force = damage.
Wrong.
Speed = Velocity.
Momentum= m.V (Mass x velocity)
Force = m.a. (mass x acceleration)
Damage = Resilience - impact.

What has this to do with "And also probably rule changes, only applicable to female AF, as females have inherent & immutable anatomical & hormonal factors, which greatly increase their likelihood of injury".
 

RedV3x

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A comment I have heard repeatedly from players that played footy and league is, many more hits and more forceful hits in league, but you are almost always prepared for and braced for the contact, so it doesn't really affect you to much.
What's this got to do with " League has to be one of the least skillful games in the world."
 

BringBackTorps

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You assume wrong.


Your bullshit.

There is no evidence nor logic that suggests less tackling would reduce the number of serious knee injuries. After being called out on this lie in a different thread, you slunk away and now you're attempting to perpetuate it here. Give up.
I assumed that female basketball & soccer general injury rates are less than female AF general injury rates, per 1000 hours played- do you deny this? If so, why?

Before I respond to the insolent & false comments you made in your 2nd & 3rd paragraphs, why did you not respond to these issues below I put to you recently, by actually specifically addressing ALL the issues in them ? And can you now specifically address all these issues?

Teen Wolf said: (with my BBT words in brackets)
Seemingly innocuous change of direction [Exactly!] in wide open space = torn ACL [Exactly!]. The faster the game is [The AFL etc., & I, are arguing only for faster ball movement- we want players to slow down!Less interchange = lower average running speeds], the more injuries of that type are going to occur... in any sport!
My BringBackTorps reply to Teen Wolf directly above
"Refer to my above post#423- the AFL, their Charter Of The Game, a multitude of experts in the MSM etc. want faster ball movement, with much less stoppages & congestion. They do not want the players to be running faster, but to have average slower speeds, with less interchange.
Force = Mass X Acceleration- as L. Matthews & many others have said, players now are hitting etc. harder than ever!

Your quoted comment actually reinforces what I have said about the very high, & worrying, rate of female knee injuries in AF.

Because their is so much larger player nos. involved in more constant congestion now, to avoid the multitude of opponents tackling/ threatening to tackle, blocking your space, it is now necessary for more female players to take more evasive action. These female players must, much more often, change direction, swerve & baulk their multitude of opponents in the horrific congestion- directly contributing to females having up to 9 times the incidence of serious knee injuries.

It is essential that the no. of serious knee injuries in females playing AF be vastly reduced (now up to 9 times greater, cf males). These injuries, which also require very long rehab., are also causing severe psychological issues for many females; ditto, concussions (c. double the rate, cf males)".



Are these your words or some official's ?
My words- but AFL officials, & other experts, have expressed similar concerns about female AF injury rates. Do you deny that AFL officials & other experts have these concerns?

Re my comment that females have some inherent anatomical & hormonal factors that greatly increase their likelihood of injury in AF, which you denied. What is the basis of your denial, below?
One of the most bizarre b.s. statements I've ever seen.
Soccer has the most injuries across the board
Are you saying that, per 1000 hours played, male & female, amateur & pro, jnr & snr, soccer players have "the most injuries across the board",cf all other sports in Australia?
If not, what are you saying?

Basketball injuries tend to take off the older a person gets.
I'm not clear about your comment.
How do you compare the average rate of basketball injuries to AF injuries?
 
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jatz14

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Wrong.
Speed = Velocity.
Momentum= m.V (Mass x velocity)
Force = m.a. (mass x acceleration)
Damage = Resilience - impact.

What has this to do with "And also probably rule changes, only applicable to female AF, as females have inherent & immutable anatomical & hormonal factors, which greatly increase their likelihood of injury".
Momentum equals mass x velocity, but it doesn't particularly matter which direction they are going, as we are assuming they are running into each other. So speed and velocity can be interpreted as the same thing in this instance.
Force also equals mass x deceleration. The greater the speed, the greater the deceleration at impact, so the greater the force.
Damage = Resilience - impact. But for a specific player, if that player has time to brace and prepare, then resilience is pretty much a constant, leaving us with Delta Damage = Delta impact.
 

RedV3x

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My words- but AFL officials, & other experts, have expressed similar concerns about female AF injury rates.
You should make clear what is your opinion and what is quotation.

Do you deny that AFL officials & other experts have these concerns?
The thing that is missing in almost all your threads is degree. To what degree is their injury concern with quotations.

Re my comment that females have some inherent anatomical & hormonal factors that greatly increase their likelihood of injury in AF, which you denied. What is the basis of your denial?
What is the basis of your statement? My opinion is based on personal experience with women's football - youth and amateur.

Are you saying that, per 1000 hours played, male & female, amateur & pro, jnr & snr, soccer players have "the most injuries across the board",cf all other sports in Australia?
I'm saying soccer has ""the most injuries across the board" of the sports we were talking about.

How do you compare the average rate of basketball injuries to AF injuries?
How do you compare the average rate of basketball injuries to AF injuries ?
 

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jatz14

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What's this got to do with " League has to be one of the least skillful games in the world."
Substitute "ability" for "skill" and it's a different story.
There is no skill in being a marathon runner but it is a rare ability.
Basically in r.l. you need the ability to absorb punishment.

It was a response to this bit Basically in r.l. you need the ability to absorb punishment. Not a response to the skill required to play. Its reputation as a sport where you have to be able to absorb punishment is oversold. Most of the hits you take on the shoulders with your arms braced in front. There is a reason that being forced to defend and MAKE those tackles is seen as more draining and punishing, because you use a lot of energy stopping big guys, not because of the impact of the hits.

So, you dont need to be able to absorb punishment (excessively, all contact sports you need to be able to take some punishment, or you dont progress far in the sport), you just need the size and power required to stop guys that have size and power, 90% of the impacts are just meh, imop.
 

BringBackTorps

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1. Forbes M. Wood 31.10.21

Wood said, re concussion issues facing RL

"Culturally speaking, rugby league is perhaps the least well set-up to deal with concussion and its after effects. The strength of the game is two-fold: the USP of the game on the field is high action, high-contact, high-athleticism style of play, while off it, the game’s driving narrative of working class, people’s sport egalitarianism is what many fans buy into.

The issue of being a high-impact sport is that concussions are unavoidable, and the problem with being working class to a fault is that working class people rarely have that much cash to pay out for lawsuits.

The news last week that ex-Great Britain star Bobbie Goulding and nine other former players would be suing the British rugby league authorities for negligence sent ripples through the game: support, of course, for Goulding, who announced that he is suffering from early-onset dementia as a result of repeated head knocks, but also panic about how many other cases there might be, and how it might bankrupt the game if a suit were successful.

The players involved in the suit were clear to point out that their action went further than cash: they were also looking for the Rugby Football League (RFL) to implement changes that got ahead of the head knock problem, such as reducing tackling in training (but can RL reduce tackling, significantly, in games: &, if not, medical & legal consequences for RL?) and increasing the amount of time required to return to play after concussions (Emphases, & words in brackets, mine)".


Are RL concussion problems more intractable & severe, than AF & RU, at both the pro & GR levels?

The AFL, of course, also has serious concussion issues to address. Furthermore, it has been claimed females are twice as likely as males to have a concussion (weaker neck muscles, thinner skulls , & not as experienced/well-trained).
Some former AFL players have initiated a legal class-action court case against it, alleging AFL negligence has contributed to neurological problems (which the AFL has denied any negligence, based on medical knowledge at the time; & it has made significant Rule changes to reduce the risk of concussion).







2.
Why would participation increase in what supposedly is heartland ?
It is reasonable to assume that, if the Dolphins spend $2m every year (indexed for CPI) on GR RL in their district, & other NRL clubs increase greatly their spending on GR RL (as P. V'landys is seeking), then a- major?- improvement would occur in their GR contact RL player nos.

Such growth is likely to have a negative effect on GR AF nos., since both sports are direct competitors in NSW & Qld.- which P. V'landys, A. Abdo, & other RL officials readily acknowledge publicly, on many occasions. Unlike your contrary opinion, I believe they have a much better knowledge than you as to which sport is their main competitor ie AF.

You keep saying this but never produce anything to back it up
Incorrect.

I have, many times, stated that:-

. there has been, since 2017, significant growth in female contact RL
. contact RL has had good growth in Central West NSW since 2017, after the Panthers "adopted" & branded the local District RL comp.; & established Academies in Bathurst, Dubbo, & Forbes.
. RL is the culturally dominant sport in NSW & Qld. -AF is far behind there.
. Brisbane 2 will greatly assist RL in Qld. inc. its GR contact nos.

IMO those days are way gone. In fact I can name instances where cricket has been a competitor to junior Australian Football.
There is still significant crossover of players and staff but the only real benefit is in the commonality of facilities.
Thus the only possible effect is in the construction of new facilities.
I disagree, re jnr clubs- in many GR AF & cricket clubs, there is a symbiosis of both sports, for the many reasons I previously gave.
Your "significant crossover of players & staff" & "commonality of facilities" comments reinforces my point ie if male cricket nos. continue their decline in Aust. (a fall of 24% in 2020/21), this will weaken GR AF, over the long term in NSW & Qld. (where there is currently minimal symbiosis, outside sthn. NSW & ACT).

Well that's easy - NRL have an inferior game.
This is your subjective view (which I share).
Clearly, however, the subjective view of a big majority of people in NSW & Qld. is that RL is a better game than AF- this is RL's great strength there.

I have explained to you many times why IMO there is no such thing as (short-term large-scale ) competition between sports.
Bizarre- all sports are competing for the neutrals, & non-rusted on fans.

Because they have capitulated to soccer. Soccer has beaten NRL and RA decisively in NSW !!
Soccer, in NSW & Qld., has only decisively beaten RL & RU (& AF) in GR nos.
The NRL still dominates at the pro level there; & RU is competitive with soccer at the pro level there eg Super Rugby games usually outrate A League games.

What a load of baloney. At junior level.
Australian Football is challenging w.r.t. the skills required not "courage".
Rugby wasn't rough for the backs (back then you'd simply pass the ball when challenged)
League, yes, is the only sport where there is consistent tackling - it's alone in this regard.
I hated being kicked in the shins in soccer and elbowed in the neck in basketball.
Cricket with it's concrete pitches and standard ball is easily the scariest sport around for juniors.
I disagree- why do you think that one of the main advertising themes of soccer, for c.60 years, is that it is a very safe game for kids to play, cf AF, RL, & RU?
Why do you think the phrase "soccer mums" was coined?
Or do you think you now more about soccer than soccer officials, & soccer mums?

Are these your words or some official's ?
If I am using the words of a MSM commentator, or sports' official etc., I always use quotation marks.

soccer, netball, basketball etc would be seen as good crossover
cricket, baseball, basketball would be seen as complementary
These activities are indirect competitors for GR AF.

Are these your words or some official's ?
AFL officials, & other experts, have expressed concerns over female injury rates, in both the AFL & GR female AF.
For examples, I suggest you read the Thread "Why do women play the rough/risky game of AF...Any barriers?".

One of the most bizarre b.s. statements I've ever seen.
Ditto my above reply.
It explains female pelvic/angle issues, & menstrual weakening of knee ligaments etc., as a major contributor to serious female AF knee injuries.

Soccer has the most injuries across the board.
I disagree- please provide some links.

Yes, junior, amateur and professional women's football is more congested and yes, it needs to be more free-flowing.
one reason is that women haven't been playing the game long enough to perfect that style of play.
Yes, maybe the women's game should look at their game and make tweaks - but that's a subject in itself.
But congestion doesn't necessarily increase injuries
It does.
Prof K. Norton, the AFL's own appointed game analysis expert, has reported that, in the post 2005 congested era, there are record tackling/bumping/pushing/collision injuries in the AFL. He has also reported that, in the VFL/AFL in the 1980's, there were an average of 40 tackles per game (20 per team). The rate now is c.140 tackles per game (70 per side, with a record 195 tackles in a GWS Footscray game in 2016).

SPEED causes injuries - all sorts of injuries.
Exactly- Force= Mass x Acceleration (Edit: Typo)

We now have a bench of 5, & multiple rests on the bench- results in players who are, on average, running faster & are more ballistic ie hitting harder.
L. Matthews, & other AFL experts, have said the hits are, generally, harder in the modern era- we have removed fatigue from the game/resting of mids in pockets, more players get to more contests, more often.

Not one footy club I have ever been connected to, was associated with cricket.

The ovals were not used for cricket. Where there were shared facilities, there was zero overlap in the clubs.

Footy clubs I was associated with were stand alone
I suggest your experiences are not typical.
 
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RedV3x

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the AFL has denied any negligence, based on medical knowledge at the time; & it has made significant Rule changes to reduce the risk of concussion).
I don't believe the AFL has made "significant rule changes"
but simply policed a stricter interpretation of the existing laws.
 

RedV3x

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Clearly, however, the subjective view of a big majority of people in NSW & Qld. is that RL is a better game than AF.
Whilst stating that AFL is better product than NRL is a subjective matter I can mount a logical quantitative supposition that supports that idea.
After the 1850s, where the Australian colonialists had freedom of choice - they chose colonial football over rugby and British Association Football.
Rugby only became ingrained in NSW and Qld after colonial football was restricted.
and was ingrained then the incumbent sport has a huge advantage where ever it may exist.
The English had freedom of choice and they chose soccer over rugby and RU over rl.
If you look at statistics then Australian Football is the most patronised domestic sport
despite competition and despite historically been shut out of two states.
 

RedV3x

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Such growth is likely to have a negative effect on GR AF nos.,

Incorrect.

there is a symbiosis of both sports,

This is your subjective view (which I share).

all sports are competing for the neutrals, & non-rusted on fans.


Soccer, in NSW & Qld., has only decisively beaten RL & RU (& AF) in GR nos.

why do you think that one of the main advertising themes of soccer,

These activities are indirect competitors for GR AF.


AFL officials, & other experts, have expressed concerns over female injury rates, in both the AFL & GR female AF.
For examples, I suggest you read the Thread "Why do women play the rough/risky game of AF...Any barriers?".

I disagree-


It does.

Exactly- Force= Mass x Acceleration

I suggest your experiences are not typical.
I gave detailed answers to your statements. Don't think for one minute that I agree with you.
And PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE write concise posts with one theme.
 

RedV3x

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As for just one example you said

I suggest your experiences are not typical.
To this quote

Not one footy club I have ever been connected to, was associated with cricket.

The ovals were not used for cricket. Where there were shared facilities, there was zero overlap in the clubs.

Footy clubs I was associated with were stand alone
I, as a former AFC president and board member of three AFCs did agree with that.
 

RedV3x

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Momentum equals mass x velocity, but it doesn't particularly matter which direction they are going, as we are assuming they are running into each other.
Direction is extremely important for producing the vector resultant as you say

as we are assuming they are running into each other.
So speed and velocity can be interpreted as the same thing in this instance.
Yes, speed and velocity are the same thing as momentum = M x V.

Force also equals mass x deceleration. The greater the speed, the greater the deceleration at impact, so the greater the force.
Yes, this is the first correct use of force, the force of deceleration which is dependent on mass, change in velocity and the angle of collision.
 

BringBackTorps

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Wookie's BF Podcast Interview with C. Woodward 3.11.21

Woodward, a strong promoter & broadcaster of GR RL, is also an expert on GR RL in SW Sydney in particular, & GR RL in NSW & Qld. in general.

Woodward said, paraphrasing:-

. He is not sure the $2m pa the Dolphins have pledged to spend on GR RL will change anything (about GR male contact RL problems & nos.), it's "murky waters"-will too much of this $2m pa be spent on Dolphins HQ, instead of Development Officers visiting schools etc.

. Sydney is overcrowded with NRL clubs, they should be compelled to demonstrate "what are you dong to make RL stronger". The Salary Cap should be reduced, & spend the savings on junior development.

. RL has a big [male] drop out from16 y.o. onwards, it becomes to dangerous, has a big dropout compared with other sports.

."Tag, touch, & female RL are keeping RL nos. up".

. every NRL club should have Academies, like the Panthers (who have been very successful in growing GR RL in central West NSW).

. in SW Sydney, he has been told by local G RL officials, some with 300-400 jnrs "we don't know if we will be back next yea" due to covid problems of 2020 & 2021.

. all 16 NRL clubs will get $1m each extra from the NRL (ie total $16m). "I'm shocked there has been no announcement for jnr Clubs (re additional funding)".

. NRL "clubs aren't looking after their own clubs' jnr nursaries".

. "The NRLW will be a big cog in the NRL's marketing campaign for the next 50 years" .

. "I feel the Commission is null & void now. The (NRL) clubs now control the game. Peter V'landys is too connected to them".
Previously, prior to V'landys, the ARLC Chairman did not have such a strong dominating, daily role.
(All words in brackets mine).


Sports Industry - Rugby League Updates Nov 3 2021BigFooty.com AFL Podcast
Listen on Apple Podcasts

"On this episode opf the Sports Industry Podcast we talk to Curtis Woodward from the 81stminute.com about the Dolphins, the Bears, Development funding, the rookie draft and much more".

(Click on Red "Podcast" above, then go to 2.11 podcast. Mainly from8 mins. 55 secs. to 22 mis. 10 secs.).
 
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RedV3x

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Why would participation increase in what supposedly is heartland ?
BBT replied

It is reasonable to assume that, if the Dolphins spend $2m every year (indexed for CPI) on GR RL in their district, & other NRL clubs increase greatly their spending on GR RL - improvement would occur in their GR contact RL player nos.
but then

Woodward said, paraphrasing:-

.He is not sure the $2m pa the Dolphins have pledged to spend on GR RL will change anything (about GR male contact RL problems & nos.), it's "murky waters"-will too much of this $2m pa be spent on Dolphins HQ, instead of Development Officers visiting schools etc.
Shot yourself in the foot there. BBT
 

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Just one player from 65 selections taken in the national draft is from NSW/ACT/Qld (Josh Fahey from Queanbeyan).

It's just one year of course but it is indicative of how exaggerated some of the claims of football's increasing popularity in these markets are.
 

RedV3x

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It's just one year of course but it is indicative of how exaggerated some of the claims of football's increasing popularity in these markets are.
Of course there are many real measures to the increasing popularity and relevance to the uptake of Australian Football.
Number one would be the number of leagues, clubs players and depth.
Number two would be attendances, memberships, sponsorships, ratings, media attention.
When you look at the 863 players nominated for the draft then you'll find a good spread
 

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