What are the chances of Footy overtaking league in NSW and Queensland?

[RedV3x]

People will play what they see as 'popular'

And what they are good at and if they are good at it may be they could earn some money.
What's popular ?
Well netball is popular and now basketball has come along and the AFLW and NRLW.
It's debatable what looks more appealing and what suits different body types.

 

[RedV3x]

Very interesting comments in the first para. I think just to get the Women playing our game up there is an achievment considering the NRL is the long time entrenched code plus backed up by a media that gives it prominence.

It's the entrenched male professional code.
Soccer is the entrenched participant code for men and women.
AFLW and NRLW are new. it will be interesting to see developments.

 

[BringBackTorps]

Springfield is 28kms from Brisbane, & is part of the City of Ipswich (pop. c. 300k, 39 kms from Brisbane CBD), in the Western Corridor.
The Ipswich JRL comp. is large there.

This Springfield area is, generally, more of a working class area.
GR AF is weak in the Western Corridor- GR AF is much stronger in Brisbane's more middle class/affluent areas, in the inner suburbs.

Brisbane Lions are building their $80m HQ in Springfield, which also has 2 ovals, main having a capacity of c. 10k, for AFLW matches etc. (with seating for c. 5k, & tiered hill area). It will be, arguably, the best elite & broad community facility in Australia, for any sport.

The new HQ

" ...will greatly enhance development pathways for aspiring Australian footy players with the new facility providing Lions Academy boys and girls from across southern Queensland with expansive, dedicated training facilities and access to elite gym and education spaces.

The Arena will also provide our football community with year-round access to a professional stadium to support community football, with plans to host AFL Queensland finals, representative matches and school programs across two ovals.

It’s an $80 million project and will leave a legacy lasting a lifetime, a legacy that each Queensland footy supporter can be part of.

The Lions have raised 95% of the necessary funds via Government grants, partner contributions and early support by Club benefactors and they have embarked on a public fundraising campaign to raise the remainder (All emphases, mine)".

Help build the Lions legacy at Springfield | AFL Queensland

www.aflq.com.au

Brisbane FC, by choosing to relocate to Springfield, is obviously very confident its large new facility will, eventually, attract much local GR AF support, & greatly promote GR AF; & its confidence is further exemplified by its public camapign to seek $4m from GR AF supporters, for the massive HQ.

It can be expected that, in the medium to long term, that GR AF will have a large presence in the Western Corridor.

Final renders of The Reserve Community Arena at Springfield revealed before construction commences

The Lions share the final renders of their new training and administration facility before March’s construction phase

www.lions.com.au

Concerns have already been expressed by P. V'landys etc. about the growth of AF in Brisbane

Courier Mail P. Bardel 23.8.21

P. V'landys said (re factors being considered for Brisbane 2 in the NRL)

“The thing we are looking at is, one, it has to financially stack up. Two, what are they going to do with participation and pathways? That is important for us.

“AFL has certainly made a lot of inroads up there and we have to make sure we keep Queensland as a heartland"...

Bardel said

"News Corp understands the Ipswich City Council is prepared to consider more than $10 million in funding for the Jets should they clinch a licence as the NRL’s 17th team for 2023 or 2024.

V’landys says potential playing numbers are a key factor in the expansion battle and Harding (Ipswich mayor) confirmed she had personally written to the ARLC boss to back the Jets amid fears the rival AFL code will destroy (!) the NRL the Ipswich region".

“If the NRL didn’t embrace this region, the AFL could certainly be a threat to the code in the western corridor,” Harding said.

“The AFL have made the decision to expand substantially here, they have set up a $70 million facility (at Springfield) and they aren’t silly, they can see the growth potential out here.

“I’ve written to Peter V’landys... It’s the region with [RL] heart. It’s the grassroots of rugby league...
Ipswich is the fastest growing city in Queensland (My emphases, & words in brackets)".

No Cookies | The Courier Mail​

No Cookies

(Paywall- can anyone open, & post here)

 

[RedV3x]

It can be expected that, in the medium to long term, that GR AF will have a large presence in the Western Corridor.

Because they built a stadium and will have presence there ?
It cannot be expected but rather a question of how much this will help Australian Football in that region.

 

[RedV3x]

“If the NRL didn’t embrace this region, the AFL could certainly be a threat to the code in the western corridor,” Harding said.

Translation. Any code cannot expect fans and players to simply come to them without showing reciprocal inteest.

“The AFL have made the decision to expand substantially here, they have set up a $70 million facility (at Springfield) and they aren’t silly, they can see the growth potential out here.

Translation: The AFL has decided to invest heavily in an area with an eye to the potential returns.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. The AFL has announced a further $5m plan (ie in addition to its already hefty GR funding) to significantly increase, Australia-wide, the already strong GR female club & school comp., & female Auskick, player nos.
(Ignore the AFL's current 600,000+ female "participation" nos. GR female club & school comp., & Auskick, nos. are much less than 600K- most are school phys. ed programs, one-off Gala Days, community events etc.).

AFL states

"The latest funding to support the first phase of the action plan is designed to further accelerate progress and create step change in grassroots football for women and girls. This includes adding or expanding programs to attract, retain and encourage women and girls across every aspect of community football from NAB AFL Auskick, schools, community club participation, leadership, coaching and umpiring"...


"Key outcomes aimed for in the plan, which is backed by extensive research, include:

• Deliver girls-only offerings at every NAB AFL Auskick Centre and deliver all-girls competitions from U9 upwards (they usually start at U10-U11) in every region to encourage retention of young girls
• A 50/50 gender split of all AFL-run school programs and competitions to provide the same opportunities for girls etc... (My emphases, & words in brackets)".

AFL sets out plan to drive women and girls participation

AFL approves funding for phase one of Women and Girls Action Plan

www.womens.afl

Over the medium to long term, such programs are very likley to deliver a major increase in GR female club & school comp., & Auskick nos.









2. (Re my claim the AFL's recent huge 95% increase in AFLW wages will have an effect of attracting many more very young, & teenage, GR female players to AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.)

Bjo187 replied 22.5 above, "Disagree, I'm sure that is the intention, but it wouldn't have even made the news in NSW and QLD".

This is incorrect. If you google "Big increae in AFLW player wages", you will see listed specific headlines on the AFLW big pay rise in the SMH, Daily Telegrapgh, abc. net.au, Channels 7 & 9 websites, news.com.au, Courier Mail etc., & many NSW & Qld. regional newspapers & websites.

 

[RedV3x]

Ignore the AFL's current 600,000+ female "participation" nos. GR female club & school comp., & Auskick, nos. are much less than 600K-

what, on your say so ?

most are school phys. ed programs, one-off Gala Days, community events etc..

Most ? Most ? I very much doubt it. Give some factual breakdown figures, at least once in your life.

Over the medium to long term, such programs are very likley to deliver a major increase in GR female club & school comp., & Auskick nos.

So are you saying that this will produce a "major increase" or will it take other "such programs" ?

If you google "Big increae in AFLW player wages", you will see listed specific headlines on the AFLW big pay rise in the SMH, Daily Telegrapgh, abc. net.au, Channels 7 & 9 websites, news.com.au, Courier Mail etc., & many NSW & Qld. regional newspapers & websites.

It still takes people to read/see the articles and then be moved by them and the degree that "will have an effect of attracting many more very young, & teenage, GR female players to AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.", is to be seen.
Everybody knows that AFL players are relatively well paid.
Knowing that AFLW players are better paid will encourage some to go further and some might even consider that the competition for places in the AFLW is easier than the AFL, especially at this time of expansion.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. This is the latest photo of Brisbane FC's future HQ, training venue, & AFLW team home ground, at rapidly growing Springfield.
Will it be ready for the start of the AFLW in September? Delays due to heavy rain in SEQ?

https://twitter.com/hutchies1912

(Scroll to 30.5)

It will have a 10k capacity, is located on highly visible major roads, & should assist in boosting significantly, over the medium to long term, support for AF in the Western Corridor.
It is actually located 28 kms from Brisbane CBD, in the City Of Ipswich, where RL is strong, & AF relatively weak- a big "vote of confidence" by Brisbane FC, & the AFL.







2. A. Gee, 18 y.o., is likely to be drafted early in the June 2022 AFLW Draft.
This Mackay, Central Qld. AF player is the type of Qld. athlete that AF was once missing out on to recruit- but the situation is now changing, even in regional & rural Qld., where AF is relatively, very weak.

Anecdotal only, but part of a trend.
Gee said, in the video "My whole family were soccer fanatics".

"I lived in Mackay my whole life until this year. It's definitely rugby dominated, but I think AFL's growing," Gee told womens.afl.

"I think the main reason I wanted to take footy seriously was that I've always loved sport and been involved in a lot. But being alright at footy, I thought I may as well pursue it. I love it as well."

The article states "Having grown up playing soccer, Gee made the switch to football when she was 14 through a school competition.
It's safe to say it was a bit of a culture shock for her Russian-born mother...".

Gee said

"Mum was (initially) freaking out, she said, 'Don’t play that sport, you're going to get hurt'...".

"When she first came and watched my match, she said, 'Oh my God Alana, what is this?' ".

Gee, whiz: Top draft prospect set to go from rugby heartland to AFLW

Alana Gee is one of Queensland's brightest young players

www.womens.afl

3.

You don't get it. the AFL doesn't worry about any other sport - the AFL worries about it's own performance, it's lack of presence (my emphasis) in some areas but overwhelmingly the potential to grow.

You have contradicted yourself here. The AFL, of course, worries about other sports- it's absurd to deny this.
All sports worry about their competitors.

In the above link on 9.6.22, P. V'landys expressed concerns over the growth of AF in Qld.; & Ipswich Mayor Harding also ackknowledged the threat posed by AF growth in the Ipswich region.

A. Demetriou, as per the above link by Bjo187 on 6.5.22, stated expansion was originally based on the AFL's concerns that the AFL was being "swamped" in NSW & Qld, by NRL clubs etc.

Why do you think the AFL spends huge amounts on GCFC & GWS?
And why does the AFL not simply "hope" for a much lower expenditure, organic growth in Qld. & NSW, to protect, & grow, AF?

what, on your say so ?

As previously said, re AF in Qld., I place much stronger weight on club & school comp. nos., & Auskick nos. ie not rubbery AFL inflated general "participation" nos.

All sports, however, use rubbery general "participation" nos., to inflate their presence- which are greater than regd. comp. player nos.
This has been noted (by myself & others) many times, on this Thread; & in the Thread (Eventually) "A Third Team In Sydney, It's Only A Matter Of Time".

Do you disagree-if so, why? What is your evidence?

 

[RedV3x]

You have contradicted yourself here.

Your English comprehension is lacking. i have NOT contradicted myself - i have been consistent in that opinion.

The AFL, of course, worries about other sports- it's absurd to deny this.

The AFL is concerned about it's own performance first and looks at other sports to garner information.

All sports worry about their competitors.

Again with the hyperbole. Gaelic Football is so unconcerned that it is still amateur.

In the above link on 9.6.22, P. V'landys expressed concerns over the growth of AF in Qld.; & Ipswich Mayor Harding also ackknowledged the threat posed by AF growth in the Ipswich region.

FFS that's NRL.
That's the problem with NRL - they are too worried about AFL and not enough focus on their own game.

A. Demetriou, as per the above link by Bjo187 on 6.5.22, stated expansion was originally based on the AFL's concerns that the AFL was being "swamped" in NSW & Qld, by NRL clubs etc.

The NRL was the incumbent and AFL being the newcomer, so saying AFL was "swamped" is ridiculous when we had so few boats in the water.

Why do you think the AFL spends huge amounts on GCFC & GWS?

The two expansion clubs are the result of a model with the basic underwriting of which was that the extra media revenue
would fund AFL expansion. To neglect this input is ridiculous.

And why does the AFL not simply "hope" for a much lower expenditure, organic growth in Qld. & NSW, to protect, & grow, AF?

You mean like the NRL ? Just "hoping" for growth is a ridiculous model.

As previously said, re AF in Qld., I place much stronger weight on club & school comp. nos., & Auskick nos. ie not rubbery AFL inflated general "participation" nos.

So do I. That's why I constantly ask for your figures which have never supplied.

All sports, however, use rubbery general "participation" nos., to inflate their presence- which are greater than regd. comp. player nos.

Apart from your hyperbole, I agree and have stated this many a time but that does not necessarily invalidate the figures.
Raw figures are indeed debatable but figures used relatively are meaningful.
I would take more credence in your criticism if you actually posted your figures.
The AFL up until Covid, was indeed getting better at presenting a breakdown of figures.

Do you disagree-if so, why? What is your evidence?

WTF is the question? Give me the question so I might supply an answer.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. C. Wilson (who has won various media Awards) has been, for decades, the generally recognised leader in journalists who specialise in off-field issues in the AFL (The now retired P. Smith may have been considered by some as a close peer). She, obviously, is the main recipeint of many well-sourced leaks.

On 1.6.22, Wilson made this extraordinary claim (re the current Rights' negotiations for post 2024) on Footy Classified, when she said

"[Paramount Ten]They are in town this week...Six hundred, or more, million dollars a year, is what its going to be about".

E. McGuire, even though he admitted Nine Group were interested in the Rights, did not rebut this startling claim.


Both she & E. McGuire stated that there is now, true competitive tension in the Rights' negotiations (in contrast to previous Rights' negotiations).

McGuire, re the Rights $ quantum, said

"It's going to be massive...For the first time in a long time, the AFL will have an auction, with a lot of hands in the air"; & specifically mentioned the interest of Channel 7, News Ltd./ Foxtel (which McGuire said wants to float on the stock exchange- implying it has a crucial need for very high rating content, to "sell" the float), very wealthy "with turbo US dollars, they want to get stuck into it" Paramount/CBS (owner of Channel 10), & Nine/ Fairfax group... even Amazon & Disney.



(Go to 12 mins. 40 secs.- 16 mins. 30 secs.)


C. $600m pa, if obtained, will be a massive achievement for the AFL. The NRL is, apparently, on "a bit over $400 pa" inc. NZ Rights (A. Abdo December 2021), from 2023-2027 inc.- negotiated under covid uncertainties/pressure.

Such a huge discrepancy in the Rights. cf the NRL, if it eventuates, will provide an enormous advantage/warchest for the AFL to increase its current significant growth in NSW, ACT, & Qld.
IMO, c. $600m pa for 5 years, seems unlikley to be realised- simply too big an increase, cf 2023-24, @ $473m pa.






2. It was announced yesterday, for the first time, that the AFL & the Nine Group started official negotiations on 17.6, for streaming Rights.

Channel 9 Meet With The AFL Over Streaming Rights

Tom Browne with the latest.

www.triplem.com.au

3. RussellEbertHandball 2.6.22 "Ive said previouly the rights might well be between $3bil and $3.5bil for either 5 or 6 years".

What is the basis of your pre-1.6.22 belief that the AFL next Rights' deal would be c. $3b- $3.5b, for 5 or 6 years?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

3. RussellEbertHandball

What is the basis of your pre-1.6.22 belief that the AFL next Rights' deal would be c. $3b- $3.5b, for 5 or 6 years?

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation at this post in April and that a 30% to 45% increase range is about right given that's what advertising rates might increase by that amount over a 6 year period, and the next post I put up and AFR story saying that Netflix will record $1bil revenue in Oz in this calendar year.

Edit and then subsequent posts speculating that 10/Paramount+ might be prepared for AFL to be a large loss leader to get eyeballs over to 10, just like the original Fox Footy Channel 2002-06 version lost between $100-$120m as part of the loss leader position, was to destroy Stokes/Channel 7's 24 hour cable sports channel C7 that was on Optus Vision and make Fox Sports channels the monopoly station for Oz sports on pay TV.

The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

Probably won't happen but I do wonder what the AFL would do if a network offered them a boatload of money to introduce State of Origin again.

www.bigfooty.com

And I said they will need $500m+ cash a year if they are going to give the players a 10% increase the first year of the new deal and 3-4% each year after that, like previous deals, the increase in AFLW players wage, by $15m in 2022 Part B season and desire to be full time by 2026 (AFLPA goal) and the best paid domestic female players in any comp in Oz by 2030 (AFL goal), a team in Tassie and their annual distribution of $15m and the clubs will want an increase in what distribution they get, that doesn't have to be passed onto the players.

The 2023-24 deal the AFL is getting $440m cash each year of total 2 year extended deals, worth $946m. See my post at link below then a couple after that.

The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

I remember Ch 10 had about 10-14 Saturday night games with Brisbane playing home and away games for 5 or 6 years, and showing them live in Brizvegas when I lived in SE Qld in 2003-04, as Brisbane were on fire and 10 pushing the promote footy in Qld line with the AFL, so stick with us doing the...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. Gold Coast FC is on the cusp of having its most successful season ever- & has a chance of making the Finals also, for the first time. If this happens, & success is not fleeting, it will be a significant boost for AF in Qld.

(In 2014, with G. Ablett starring, & playing Collingwood, GCFC had its highest Metricon crowd ever, 24,032- the second time it had a home crowd of 24K+.

Ablett was seriously injured to the shoulder, in a vicious sling tackle (targetted?) in that Collingwood game- he was never the same player, & GCFC went into a period of long decline.
What might have happened to GCFC's fortunes, if Ablett had not been so seriously injured? And if the AFL had previously established much more longer suspensions, for such dirty play?
"Accidental" sling tackles are still being seen, unfortunately, in GR AF- dirty players very rarely punch/elbow to the head now.

Furthermore, GCFC's A. Davies -who captained Qld. in elite U16 jnr basketball, & played in the Australian U18 basketball National team- has a Japanese mother.
Whilst anecdotal only, this is another example of AF now attracting players of Asian background, &/or elite athletes, in Qld. & NSW.
Prior to 2011, there were very slim chances of this occuring. My words in brackets).

It was a nice gesture for GCFC to invite Davies' grandfather, who had just come from Japan, into the end-of-game team song.

SUNS heartwarming moment when Alex Davies’ Grandpa joins in post-win celebrations | AFL Queensland

www.aflq.com.au

A. Davies

"A place in the Suns for Manunda Hawks talent​

As emerging AFL footballers around Australia stress about how they will catch the eye of recruiters in 2020, a Manunda Hawks junior is sitting pretty".







2.

I did a quick back of the envelope calculation at this post in April and that a 30% to 45% increase range is about right given that's what advertising rates might increase by that amount over a 6 year period,

Do advertising rates usually increase by c. 30%- 45% over a 6 year period?

And given that AFL ratings on FTA have, generally, been falling for c. 15 years, can we expect such adverting rate increases to continue?
(For Fox Sports, advertising revenues are much less important, cf Subscription payments; & booming Kayo, much less relevant).

 

[RedV3x]

Gold Coast FC is on the cusp of having its most successful season ever- & has a chance of making the Finals also, for the first time. If this happens, & success is not fleeting, it will be a significant boost for AF in Qld.

Part of the equation is always onfield success, in fact IMO onfield success is major contributor to obverall success.

Do advertising rates usually increase by c. 30%- 45% over a 6 year period?

It's the overall desirability of sports independent of FTA going down and being replaced by streaming.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

2.

Do advertising rates usually increase by c. 30%- 45% over a 6 year period?

And given that AFL ratings on FTA have, generally, been falling for c. 15 years, can we expect such adverting rate increases to continue?
(For Fox Sports, advertising revenues are much less important, cf Subscription payments; & booming Kayo, much less relevant).

They have in the past.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. More information on A. Davies, whose mother is Japanese; & M. Chol (200 cms tall!) born in South Sudan, but raised in Brisbane from 8. y.o.- both now playing for Gold Coast FC. These are examples of the type of elite athletes that the AFL is now recruiting, from locations & backgrounds that were once unavailable to it.

"Alex Davies's magical moment is a shining light for Asian-Australian representation in the AFL​

Alex Davies's grandfather Kazuhiro flew in from Tokyo for the Suns player's most recent match".

From Tokyo to Gold Coast — why Alex Davies's special moment transcends AFL

It would bring a tear to any fan's eye, but Alex Davies's magical moment wasn't just heartwarming - it was an important milestone for Asian-Australian's in the AFL.

www.abc.net.au

"How South Sudan refugee Mabior Chol found his way in the AFL​

Mabior Chol is among the leading goal-scorers in the AFL this season".

"Chol's also standing out as a key forward for the Gold Coast Suns...
Chol had all the makings of a star: he was fast, had a huge vertical jump and a could drop remarkably low to the ground for such a tall player"...

"Mr Churchill said Chol was an excitement machine for those watching.

'The crowd is up and about 'ooh Marbs Marbs', Mr Churchill said.
'You can hear they are just lifting every time he goes near the footy' ".

How refugee Mabior Chol found his way in the AFL

The journey from South Sudan to the lofty heights of the AFL has never been an easy path, but Gold Coast Suns recruit Mabior Chol is finding his feet.

www.abc.net.au

The strong growth in AF Club & school comp. nos. that is occuring in Qld. means the increase in drafted players from Qld. is certain to continue.
This raises the profile of GR AF & the AFL there, & is a "virtuous circle": for AF, popularity & success leads to further popularity & success.







2.

Whilst RL seems to having a problem with diminishing grassroots numbers that doesn't automatically mean anything for Australian Football
especially as the NRL has a ready source of overseas replacements,

No.
It is also incorrect for you to keep claiming that AF & RL are not direct, major competitors in NSW, ACT, & Qld. Your claims are absurd.

About 25+ RL MSM experts (previously linked in this Thread &/or eventual "Third Team In Sydney" Thread) have stated they are concerned with the declining skill levels in the NRL; & that it reduces the overall appeal of the NRL, or hinders effective expansion.
Some have expressly mentioned the decline in their male (contact) GR RL nos. is a major contributing factor.

Furthermore, it cannot be assumed the NRL will always be able to attract many skilled recruits from NZ & Pasifika countries (Nthn. England GR male contact RL nos. are also in a significant, long term decline- so likely to decrease a s a source of elite NRL recruits).
Elite RU has become much more wealthy in the UK, France, & Japan.
In the future, elite athletes from NZ & Pasifika nations may decide to stay with RU (or switch from RL), but move to these latter countries, not the NRL.

And elite RL jnrs & snrs raised in Australia & NZ may decide to switch to more lucrative RU, & also move to UK, France, & Japan- very bad predicament for the NRL!

As the NRL is the major pro competitor for AF, any diminution in the NRL will be to the advantage of AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.

Fans, generally, due to tribalism etc .identify morer strongly with, & prefer to watch, local heroes.
(The NRL has had ad campaigns "NRL, Where Local Kids Become Local Heroes").

Furthermore, a "struggling" NRL in NSW, ACT, & Qld. will likely cause many elite RL jnrs (&/or parents of jnrs, generally), who wish to remain living in Australia as pro athletes, to consider a pro career in AF more appealing.

 

[RedV3x]

1. More information on A. Davies, whose mother is Japanese; & M. Chol, born in South Sudan, but raised in Brisbane from 8. y.o.- both now playing for Gold Coast FC.

Alex Davies's grandfather Kazuhiro flew in from Tokyo for the Suns player's most recent match".

Nice articles but belong it on the international pages.

No.
It is also incorrect for you to keep claiming that AF & RL are not direct, major competitors in NSW, ACT, & Qld. Your claims are absurd.

No.
It is also incorrect for you to keep claiming that AF & RL are direct, major competitors in NSW, ACT, & Qld. Your claims are absurd.
You keep posting articles on the "demise" of rugby and the "growth" of Australian Football but you have NEVER posted any link beween the two other than the belated bleatings of rugby league fans who want to blame something other than themselves for their situation.
I have repeatedly asked you for those links but you obviously cannot.

Where people have the opportunity of choice they will select what sport appeals to them.
Australian Football has grown to the point where it is more widely an option. That growth then provides more options.
Sports are long term indirect competitors for money. That gives the incumbent sports a huge advantage.

About 25+ RL MSM experts (previously linked in this Thread &/or eventual "Third Team In Sydney" Thread) have stated they are concerned with the declining skill levels in the NRL, & that it reduces the overall appeal of the NRL- & some have expressly mentioned the decline in their (male contact) GR RL nos. is a major contributing factor.

Furthermore, it cannot be assumed the NRL will always be able to attract many skilled recruits from NZ & Pasifika countries (Nthn. England GR male contact RL nos. are also in a significant decline- so likely to decrease a s a source of elite NRL recruits).

That is a problem for rugby league to address.

Elite RU has become much more wealthy in the UK, France, & Japan.
In the future, elite athletes from NZ & Pasifika nations may decide to stay with RU (or switch from RL), but move to these latter countries, not the NRL.

Rugby union is a somewhat competitor to rugby league because it is indeed so similar.
Australian Football is seen as a threat to Gaelic Football because the skills transfer.

And elite RL jnrs & snrs raised in Australia & NZ may decide to switch to more lucrative RU, & also move to UK, France, & Japan- very bad predicament for the NRL!

Again, nothing to do with Australian Football.

As the NRL is the major pro competitor for AF, any diminution in the NRL will be to the advantage of AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.

The NRL is the major professional code in NSW but most New South Welshmen now have the option of Australian Football
and that is why Australian Football is growing independent of any other sport.

Fans, generally, due to tribalism etc .identify morer strongly with, & prefer to watch, local heroes.
(The NRL has had ad campaigns "NRL, Where Local Kids Become Local Heroes").

Yes, the incumbent sport always has the advantage, but when a sport becomes a viable option then the people attracted to that sport will support it.
You cannot watch Australian Football if it is not available and you cannot play Australian Football if it is not available.
The greatest factor in sports is parenting. Parents follow the incumbents and push their kids into the incumbent sports.
In NSW, that is soccer and rugby. Australian Football has done well to make Australian Football a more viable option.

Furthermore, a "struggling" NRL in NSW, ACT, & Qld. will likely cause many elite RL jnrs (&/or parents of jnrs, generally), who wish to remain living in Australia as pro athletes, to consider a pro career in AF more appealing.

Very much wishful thinking even at amateur level for males.
There might be an argument in AFLW for that but that league is still in development.

 

[RedV3x]

Just another little part of the overall plan.

Henson Park Redevelopment gets Green Light - AFL Sydney

Image: The Hon Stuart Ayres MP is joined by (L-R) Naomi Mason (Newtown Breakaways), Tiffany Robertson (AFL NSW/ACT), Sarah Ford (Sydney Swans) and Newtown Jets representatives One of Sydney’s most iconic ovals, Henson Park, is set to receive a major…Read more ›

sydneyafl.com.au

 

[TWLS]

Just another little part of the overall plan.

Henson Park Redevelopment gets Green Light - AFL Sydney

Image: The Hon Stuart Ayres MP is joined by (L-R) Naomi Mason (Newtown Breakaways), Tiffany Robertson (AFL NSW/ACT), Sarah Ford (Sydney Swans) and Newtown Jets representatives One of Sydney’s most iconic ovals, Henson Park, is set to receive a major…Read more ›

sydneyafl.com.au

We checked out the full list of facilities to be upgraded in NSW. Yes the article covers every sport possible up there. They are spending millions on these upgrades and it is a bit of a reality check for our game. We are not high in the pecking order so as to speak, but we are on the list. We will take that.
However it is great that sport in general is getting a boost which likely happens every year.

 

[BringBackTorps]

1. Gold Coast has, for the first time since 2014 (when G. Ablett was a major star & drawcard), sold out all its 2000 Corporate seats, for its game against Collingwood.

Collingwood Corporate Hospitality Sold Out – General Tickets still available

Gold Coast SUNS Corporate Hospitality packages are now officially sold out for our Round 16 clash against Collingwood on Saturday 2nd July.

www.goldcoastfc.com.au

In another GCFC post, it said it was hoping for a crowd of "close to 20,000" (I assume this is based on dry weather- but, unfortunately, heavy rain, & temp. 14-17c,. is predicted for Saturday). GCFC had a Metricon record crowd of 24,032 vs Collingwood in 2014, when it was winning fairly regularly, & Ablett was starring.
In 2014 also, in B. Franklin's first game at Metricon, the crowd was 23,354. In 2011, GCFC vs. Collingwood, had a Metricon crowd of 23,302.

If long-suffering GCFC can get 20K+ this Saturday, without a major star & "super" drawcard of its own, this bodes well for the future of the AFL on the GC.

The above, listed GCFC crowds of 20K+ (& none post 2014) are very rare for any sports' matches (inc. NRL) on the GC.
If GCFC is able to win c. 13-17 games pa, for several years, this on-field success can be expected to deliver a major increase to its Metricon average crowds: possibly c. 20K. With this ongoing success, the AFL would, obviously, grow noticeably there; & GC GR Auskick, club & school comp. nos., already strong, would be turbocharged.







2.

You don't get it. the AFL doesn't worry about any other sport - the AFL worries about it's own performance, it's lack of presence in some areas [exactly- because of the strength of RL!] but overwhelmingly the potential to grow.

Your regular claims that the AFL "doesn't worry" etc. about other sports are incorrect- it defies common sense, & your claims are absurd.

Furthermore, you have seen the links & comments by A. Demetriou, GWS Chairman T. Shepherd, & Swans' coach J. Longmire, who all acknowledged the strength of the NRL, & the AFL's need to counter it...but you just ignore these comments by experts, or offer weak deflections.

is that what he said exactly...

Re Demetriou's comments above, on the need for 2 AFL clubs in Sydney, to combat the NRL's omnipresence in Sydney: yes, that is what Demetriou said.
Do you think Demetriou, Shepherd, & Longmire were lying? Or do you think they are incompetent?

Do you consider you have a better understanding, than them, of how the AF can progress in NSW, ACT, & Qld.- if so, why?

AFL requires an athletic body and a wide skill set.
NRL requires a body type and the ability to run, tackle hard and take punishment all day.
That is not common and we see the NRL increasingly dominated by islanders.

All medium to long term strategic advantages for the AFL, & GR AF, in NSW, ACT, & Qld. P. V'landys & A. Abdo have recently been promoting the need for the NRL to expand its presence in NZ & the Pacific; & P. V'landys said in October 2019, re NRL expansion, the NRL, "should not waste funds on rusted-on AFL states", alluding to Perth.

It is increasingly likely more teenagers in NSW & Qld., who want to play a body-contact sport, will realise their body shape, weight, & height (all with more variation in the AFL, cf the NRL) are more suited for AF.

Personally, the AFL should look at grassroots football to underpin it's foundations.

Yes, we agree that GR AF growth in Auskick, club & school comp. nos. is absolutely crucial for AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld.-"to underpin its [AF's] foundations".

You are, however, again contradicting yourself. You regularly claim that the 2 biggest body-contact sports in NSW & Qld., AF & RL, are not in competition etc. with one another- it defies common sense, & your claims are absurd.

This is despite c. 50 + comments in the MSM, by RL officials (inc. P. V'landys), ex RL players, & RL experts (linked here, but mainly in the eventual" Third Team In Sydney" Thread) bemoaning the fact that AF is growing, &/or male contact RL nos. are in serious decline, in NSW & Qld.
Do you think all these RL experts, re their expressed concerns about AF, are lying; or are incompetent? Do you think you have a better understanding than them- if so, why?

I assume you agree there is only a finite no. of people (or parents choosing a sport for their kids!) who are ready, willing, & able to play a "risky, dangerous" tough body-contact sport!

I think in usual times this would be a big advantage but the collective bargaining agreement and the 18 AFLW clubs and those players asking for double the salary will extinguish any gains that would otherwise have been put into the development of gws and gc.

Re the inceasing likelihood (from C. Wilson's comments, & later The Age comments from its AFL experts) that the AFL will be paid much more than the $473m pa (2023-2024) for its Rights from 2025, it is very unlikley the new AFL CBA, & the $25m pa AFLW CBA, will "soak up" all the additional revenues (ie greater than $473m pa).
Why do you say this?

It should be noted that, tellingly, the AFL did not make any significant cuts to GR spending in NSW, ACT, & Qld. in 2020 & 2021- when it was "financially stricken", with big cuts elsewhere.

 

[RedV3x]

Gold Coast has, for the first time since 2014 sold out all its 2000 Corporate seats, for its game against Collingwood.

That's great, but let's wait just a little longer before pumping up the situation.
i have long said that onfield success is an important ingredient to long-term success.

Your regular claims that the AFL "doesn't worry" etc. about other sports are incorrect- it defies common sense, & your claims are absurd.

You are getting extremely tiresome in not reading what I say and taking in just a little.
I am saying that the AFL worries about it's product first and foremost.
The AFL worries about it's product and constantly analyses it's situation and others.
The AFL obviously takes note of developments in other sports but it doesn't worry about other sports.
A sport can only worry about it's own situation and as Australian Football is an unique code
and thus all it has to do is find the people who would be attracted to Australian Football.
All the the AFL can do is present AFL as an option for people to make their own mind up.

You are childish to make constant statements without links.

Furthermore, you have seen the links & comments by A. Demetriou, GWS Chairman G. Shepherd, & Swans' coach J. Longmire, who all acknowledged the strength of the NRL

Everybody acknowledges the strength of the NRL

you just ignore these comments by experts, or offer weak deflections.

FFS. The AFL is trying to present Australian Football as a viable option to as many people as possible.
It's not competing for the same elite "athletes" at all.

Re Demetriou's comments above, on the need for 2 AFL clubs in Sydney, to combat the NRL's omnipresence in Sydney: yes, that is what demetriou said.

Your interpretations of what people say are meaningless without the full quote.

Do you think Demetriou, Shepherd, & Longmire were lying?

Your interpretations of what people say are meaningless without the full quote.

Do you consider you have a better understanding, than them, of how the AFL can progress in NSW, ACT, & Qld.?

Why ask such a childish question.
The AFL is trying to present Australian Football as a viable option to as many people as possible.

It is increasingly likely more teenagers there, who want to play a body-contact sport, will realise their body shape, weight, & height (all with more variation in the AFL, cf the NRL) are more suited for AF.

Again, The AFL is trying to present Australian Football as a viable option to as many people as possible - those suited to the game.

You regularly claim that the 2 biggest body-contact sports in NSW & Qld., AF & RL, are not in competition etc. with one another- it defies common sense, & your claims are absurd.

If you cannot think deeper than the superficial (which you constantly demonstrate) then it's pointless.
The AFL is trying to present Australian Football as a viable option to as many people as possible
and is not trying to steal players.

This is despite c. 50 + comments in the MSM, by RL officials (inc. P. V'landys), ex RL players, & RL experts (linked here, but mainly in the eventual" Third team In Sydney" Thread) bemoaning the fact that AF is growing, &/or male contact RL nos. are in serious decline, in NSW & Qld.

AFL is increasing due to investment and good work.
The NRL has certain issues that are distinctive for it's code.

I assume you agree there is only a finite no. of people (or parents choosing a sport for their kids!) who are ready, willing, & able want to play a "risky, dangerous" tough body-contact sport!

Again, AFL is trying to find people who are suitable to Australian Football and attract them.
Parents have widely differing views on what their kids should play.
In this regard soccer wins hands down in NSW.

Re the inceasing likelihood (from C. Wilson's comments, & later The Age comments from its AFL experts) that the AFL will be paid much more than the $473m pa (2023-2024) for its Rights from 2025, it is very unlikley the new AFL CBA, & the $25m pa AFLW CBA, will "soak up" all the additional revenues (ie greater than $473m pa).
Why do you say this?

Well if you were to quote the full context and paid the respect of of a separate post then I'd answer that.

It should be noted that, tellingly, the AFL did not make any significant cuts to GR spending in NSW, ACT, & Qld. in 2020 & 2021- when it was "financially stricken", with big cuts elsewhere.

You fail to convey what point you are trying to make.

 

[RedV3x]

BBT, I will try to explain simply why the AFL "doesn't worry about other sports."
The AFL doesn't worry about other sports because it has proffered development in regions where Australian Football is not the incumbent dominant sport.
That means, the AFL understands the challenges in getting Australian Football to the point where it is a viable option to the population.
That involves getting the message out - media, displays, visitation etc; it means money- underwriting; it means physical infrastructure and volunteers and it means politics.
The AFL comes from states playing Australian Football. The AFL knows there is no genetic reason why Australian Football cannot be as popular as Australian Football is in some Australian states.
The challenge is for the AFL to find and attract people who are suitably attracted to Australian Football.

The incumbent sports are always prone to losing participants that are more suitable to other sports when then appear.
Calling this as "competition" , competing for participants, is not the right description.
Competing for media, attention, funding, sponsorship, infrastructure etc is probably the right description

Now the incumbents all over Australia have lost participation to soccer.
In two states, the rugbies and possibly soccer are losing participation to Australian Football.
You call that "competition" and the NRL are worried about potential losses,
but it is simply people choosing to support their most suitable sport where that sport is a viable option.

 

[jatz14]

BBT, I will try to explain simply why the AFL "doesn't worry about other sports."
The AFL doesn't worry about other sports because it has proffered development in regions where Australian Football is not the incumbent dominant sport.
That means, the AFL understands the challenges in getting Australian Football to the point where it is a viable option to the population.
That involves getting the message out - media, displays, visitation etc; it means money- underwriting; it means physical infrastructure and volunteers and it means politics.
The AFL comes from states playing Australian Football. The AFL knows there is no genetic reason why Australian Football cannot be as popular as Australian Football is in some Australian states.
The challenge is for the AFL to find and attract people who are suitably attracted to Australian Football.

The incumbent sports are always prone to losing participants that are more suitable to other sports when then appear.
Calling this as "competition" , competing for participants, is not the right description.
Competing for media, attention, funding, sponsorship, infrastructure etc is probably the right description

Now the incumbents all over Australia have lost participation to soccer.
In two states, the rugbies and possibly soccer are losing participation to Australian Football.
You call that "competition" and the NRL are worried about potential losses,
but it is simply people choosing to support their most suitable sport where that sport is a viable option.

Like a hypothetical country where long distance running is the only sport.

Then someone presents sprinting.

Providing the new sport is out there, available and viable, there will be people who hate long distance running, or are bad at it, or just good at sprinting, or curious willing to switch.

No stealing involved, and many of them will not really be a loss to long distance running, because they either hated it and didn't do it, or were not good at it.

Another way to look at it. If 1% of kids playing sport swap sports every year, and your a minor sport, so long as you can set yourself up as an attractive alternative sport, you will tend to grow, as you stand to attract more than you lose.



On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bjo187]

There is a good podcast episode with Mark Bouris interviewing Vlandy's. He is actually pretty impressive, you can see how the gap between the AFL and NRL has significantly closed in the past three years. He has a good working class upbringing but also a corporate mind. I think this is important to consider in the search for the next AFL CEO, as corporate private school types alone don't have the same breadth of knowledge of what's required to appeal to kids from both migrant and working class background. Well, not as much as someone that has lived it. This is especially important for the success of GWS.

 

[RedV3x]

Like a hypothetical country where long distance running is the only sport.
Then someone presents sprinting.

It's interesting that British colonialists had rugby, English football and cricket to choose from.
Australians chose to create their own game - that's rather unique in sporting history.
North Americans had the same choice but developed rounders into baseball and rugby into gridiron.
Tropical countries chose cricket but left rugby alone.
The American diaspora then favoured baseball and basketball with a little American Football as well..

If there was a hypothetical country starting from scratch then I'd say that Gaelic Football would be a big winner.
Gaelic Football - has a smaller (than AFL) rectangular field, players use all of the body, high scoring and low physicality.
There is a form of football called Ausball in North America that presents very much like a stripped down version of Gaelic Football
in that there is a three second rule that covers virtually everything and simple to umpire. You can run as far as like in three seconds, you can hold the ball for three seconds but after that it is penalty - so simple and no arguments. This is a really good introductory game as it forces people to move the ball around much like Gaelic Football. It's not so good for football veterans as it limits their creativity.

 

[BringBackTorps]

The Australian J. Stensholt 1.7.22

Stensholt, a sports' business expert, said

"Bidding war looms as Network Ten lobs $3bn bid for AFL broadcast rights​

Network Ten is attempting to land a knockout $3bn bid for AFL broadcast rights, as the league increases pressure on television networks to clinch a deal within a month.

Incumbents Foxtel and Seven West Media are still considered favourites to maintain their package of rights, but the AFL hopes the Ten offer, which sources say is worth $600m annually over at least five years, will ignite a bidding war.

Meanwhile, Nine Entertainment, which has a free-to-air contract for the NRL throughout winter, has told the AFL it is interested in some rights, presenting a proposal to show AFL on Thursday nights, according to sources...

Outgoing AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan, who will leave the job at the end of the year after an eight-year tenure, is keen to negotiate one last rights deal before he hands over the reins.
The move has left some television executives bemused, given Foxtel and Seven have negotiated extensions with the AFL in the past two years which will see them pay a combined $946m for the 2023 and 2024 seasons".

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_RED&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fmedia%2Fbidding-war-looms-as-network-ten-lobs-3bn-bid-for-afl-broadcast-rights%2Fnews-story%2F93d86a8c

(Behind a paywall- can anyone open, & post here please).


If the AFL can obtain $3b pa for the Rights for 5 years ($600m pa) from 2025, it places the AFL in an extremely strong position financially, cf the NRL (on c. $403m pa, from 2023-2027; & much less for covid-reduced 2020-22).
C. $600m pa will be a very propitious achievement for AF. It will be probably, & literally, a "gamechanger" for the progress of AF.

The AFL, & GR AF in NSW, ACT, & Qld., will have much increased funding, & will experience further significant growth (ie well above the current gains).





EDIT:

Report: 10 bids $3b for AFL rights | TV Tonight

10 reportedly wants all the rights, including digital rights, some matches on 10 and the remainder on Paramount+.

tvtonight.com.au

madmug 1.7 (referring to this $600m pa report) stating

"Comments that The bidders may have been asked to include figures for both an 18 & 19 team roster. Its suggested that extra team, with probably more Thursday night games, will raise a fair bit extra coin which makes it a financial benefit. All that comes as a pleasant surprise.