Footy Developments in NSW and Queensland

May 5, 2016
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I find the long term future of rugby league very interesting. Domestically it faces huge competition from the AFL.

While internationally it faces big opposition from Union. While rugby isn’t a threat domestically the game’s financial growth in Europe, Japan and now America is going to see salary growth outpace domestic growth in the NRL salaries. It’s not unrealistic to think that the games biggest names could chase the money overseas. Hurting the product domestically


That’s always been the case though. Any league player can get a pay rise from a code or Super League switch if they really want one.

And at any rate as a less specific skill set than afl any ‘talent drain’
Is more easily covered.
 
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RedV3x

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The money in European rugby union is growing

last I knew British clubs were struggling.

Not even something the AFL would worry about.

You don't get it. the AFL doesn't worry about any other sport - the AFL worries about it's own performance,
something other codes should do.

if league players start swapping codes for more money overseas it will hurt the standard of the NRL meaning it may accelerate young fans turning away from it.

Well, RL might just return to it's home.

if league players start swapping codes for more money overseas it will hurt the standard of the NRL

if AFL players start swapping codes for more money overseas it will hurt the standard of the AFL.
 

RedV3x

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And at any rate as a less specific skill set than afl any ‘talent drain’
Is more easily covered.

Let's substitute "abilities" for "skill set".
Only a certain proportion of people have the abilities or skill sets for a particular sport at a particular level.
Almost anyone can play soccer but you need to be athletic and have a refined skill set at the top level.
In most sports it's an advantage to be tall.
In Australian Rules Football the wide skill set range finds a wide place for players even though it has narrowed drastically at AFL level..
Rugby Union has a place for people with two types of abilities.
Rugby League, at NRL level is looking at a very specific type of person which are proportionally less common.
 
May 5, 2016
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Let's substitute "abilities" for "skill set".
Only a certain proportion of people have the abilities or skill sets for a particular sport at a particular level.
Almost anyone can play soccer but you need to be athletic and have a refined skill set at the top level.
In most sports it's an advantage to be tall.
In Australian Rules Football the wide skill set range finds a wide place for players even though it has narrowed drastically at AFL level..
Rugby Union has a place for people with two types of abilities.
Rugby League, at NRL level is looking at a very specific type of person which are proportionally less common.

The difference with league and afl is with afl you need a body type AND a skill set. With league you don’t.

The quality of the game has never suffered through expansion, talent drain, or a lack of numbers. Rule changes and judiciary interpretations have hurt it for sure, but the quality of the product itself is never going to be effected by an exodus to other codes.
 

RedV3x

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The difference with league and afl is with afl you need a body type AND a skill set. With league you don’t.

AFL requires an athletic body and a wide skill set.
NRL requires a body type and the ability to run, tackle hard and take punishment all day.
That is not common and we see the NRL increasingly dominated by islanders.
 
May 5, 2016
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AFL requires an athletic body and a wide skill set.
NRL requires a body type and the ability to run, tackle hard and take punishment all day.
That is not common and we see the NRL increasingly dominated by islanders.

It’s more common than you’d think. The fact is the lack of specific skill set for many positions opens the game up for anyone who wants to play it. If the islanders stopped dominating it would simply open up again for non islanders. I love rugby league but it’s not a complex game and as someone who had a reasonably successful amateur career at it with virtually no junior experience I can see on a grander scale how easy it would be for development pathways and academies to stock their ponds based simply on the ability of a kid to take a hit and lift some weights
 
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What I see is an NRL dominated by players originating outside of Australia.


Yes and what you see is easily replaceable that’s my whole point. These guys don’t bring anything unique beyond being a bit bigger. If they were no longer there because of some huge offshore exodus to other competitions or codes, there is not some massive dearth of other people who are willing to get tackled and need few other specific skills.
 

Seedsfan

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last I knew British clubs were struggling.



You don't get it. the AFL doesn't worry about any other sport - the AFL worries about it's own performance,
something other codes should do.



Well, RL might just return to it's home.



if AFL players start swapping codes for more money overseas it will hurt the standard of the AFL.
But the likelihood of AFL players swapping sports is negligible as what are they going to swap into.

The AFL does worry about the presence of other sports that’s why they expanded in Sydney’s West.

The AFL do handle expansion far better than any other code in Aus
 

RedV3x

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The AFL does worry about the presence of other sports that’s why they expanded in Sydney’s West.
You don't get it. the AFL doesn't worry about any other sport - the AFL worries about it's own performance, it's lack of presence in some areas but overwhelmingly the potential to grow.
 

Bjo187

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You don't get it. the AFL doesn't worry about any other sport - the AFL worries about it's own performance, it's lack of presence in some areas but overwhelmingly the potential to grow.

Demetriou himself stated multiple times the introduction of the expansion teams were to avoid the NSW and QLD teams being swamped by both soccer and NRL in those states (sacked podcast and the here come the giants podcast). I do agree overall though, the other sports react to what the AFL is doing, the AFL generally lead and do as they please. I always think of the AFL as being like McDonalds, NRL as Hungry Jacks (always copying McDonald's a few years later).
 

RedV3x

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Demetriou himself stated multiple times the introduction of the expansion teams were to avoid the NSW and QLD teams being swamped by both soccer and NRL

is that what he said exactly because blind Freddy could see that soccer and NSWRL were big at the time and already "swamped".
It always a case of, the AFL is big and securing a bigger chunk of Sydney would make the AFL even bigger.
 

BringBackTorps

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Paramount/Ch10 are VERY keen to win the AFL Rights- even as a "loss leader" to launch Ch 10 & Paramount to market leadership, over the medium to long term, in Australia.
The wealthy US parent co. will bid (probably c. 3.5 games pw on Ch 10 FTA, & Paramount streaming others) very heavily to win the next AFL Rights deal.

"Channel 10 is making a big play for the AFL.

The struggling network is pulling out all the stops in its efforts to scoop Seven for the free-to-air broadcast rights, even flying AFL chief Gillon McLachlan to New York last week to meet executives from Ten's U.S. parent company, reports The Australian.

The AFL is reportedly looking for '$2.5billion over five years', and Channel 10 is willing to do 'whatever it takes' to secure the rights".


(Full report in The Australian- can anyone open, & please post here)


The Age 27.4.22
J. Niall & S. McClure also confirm the determination of Paramount/Ch10 to acquire the Rights - which almost guarantees the AFL will receive an increase in its Rights' $.

"Industry sources say that the one certainty of the Ten and Paramount bid is that it will deliver a bigger broadcast deal for the AFL...

Industry sources are adamant that Foxtel - which relies heavily on AFL, NRL and cricket to drive subscriptions via Fox Sports - will be desperate to retain the broadcast rights to the AFL and will be forced to pay accordingly".




It is reasonable to assume, therefore, AFL will increase its current Rights of $473m pa ($946m for 2023-24 ), now an Australian sporting record, from 2025- to a minimum of $500m pa.

The NRL Rights' deal quantum has never been specifically announced (NRL's Annual Report etc. simply combines Rights' $ with other licensing revenues, so deliberately disguises the exact Rights $).
A few months ago, however, the NRL CEO A. Abdo said the total Rights (which include NZ Rights' $) would be a"bit over $400m", for 5 years 2023-27.

The intention of Paramount/Ch 10 to deliver a knock-out bid to win the sole Rights creates strong "competitive tension" in the next Rights' negotiations with the other bidders; & it places the AFL in a very strong position financially, vis-vis the NRL (notwithstanding the AFL has had manageable losses in the last 2 covid-affected years, & NRL made profits).

As the difference in the Rights' differentials will be increasing, to the NRL's detriment, the AFL would, almost certainly, be investing more in NSW, ACT, & Qld.- which is very likely to increase support for the AFL & GR AF there.




EDIT:

"The bid for the rights, beginning in 2025 has seen Paramount enter the fold, as well as Amazon, which is set to produce a bumper deal – far greater than what the AFL currently earns for its broadcasting rights.

... media director and GM of Spinach, Ben Willee said Ten and Paramount are going to 'have a run at it like an 18-year-old in an all-you-can-drink bar', as he argued the network 'hasn’t recovered' after losing the AFL many moons ago.

Niall further wrote... 'Whoever becomes the AFL’s next broadcast partners – Ten and Paramount+ in a joint deal, the incumbents Seven and Foxtel, a combination of those parties or even Amazon in partnership with a free to air network – the AFL is assured of a windfall' ".

(All above emphase, mine)

 
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Bjo187

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Paramount/Ch10 are VERY keen to win the AFL Rights- even as a "loss leader" to launch Ch 10 & Paramount to market leadership, over the medium to long term, in Australia.
The wealthy US parent co. will bid (probably c. 3.5 games pw on Ch 10 FTA, & Paramount streaming others) very heavily to win the next AFL Rights deal; & that the AFL wants at least $2.5b, for 5 years from 2025 ($500m pa).

"Channel 10 is making a big play for the AFL.

The struggling network is pulling out all the stops in its efforts to scoop Seven for the free-to-air broadcast rights, even flying AFL chief Gillon McLachlan to New York last week to meet executives from Ten's U.S. parent company, reports The Australian.

The AFL is reportedly looking for '$2.5billion over five years', and Channel 10 is willing to do 'whatever it takes' to secure the rights".


(Full report in The Australian- can anyone open, & please post here)


The Age 27.4.22
J. Niall & S. McClure also confirm the determination of Paramount/Ch10 to acquire the Rights - which almost guarantees the AFL will receive an increase in its Rights' $.

"Industry sources say that the one certainty of the Ten and Paramount bid is that it will deliver a bigger broadcast deal for the AFL...

Industry sources are adamant that Foxtel - which relies heavily on AFL, NRL and cricket to drive subscriptions via Fox Sports - will be desperate to retain the broadcast rights to the AFL and will be forced to pay accordingly".



It is reasonable to assume, therefore, AFL will increase its current Rights of $946m for 2023-24 ($473m pa), now an Australian sporting record, to a minimum of $500m pa.

The NRL Rights' deal quantum has never been specifically announced (NRL's Annual Report etc. simply combines Rights' $ with other licensing revenues, so deliberately disguises the exact Rights $).
A few months ago, however, the NRL CEO A. Abdo said the total Rights (which include NZ Rights' $) would be a"bit over $400m pa", for 5 years 2023-27.

The intention of Paramount/Ch 10 to deliver a knock-out bid to win the sole Rights creates strong "competitive tension" in the next Rights' negotiations with the other bidders; & it places the AFL in a very strong position financially, vis-vis the NRL (notwithstanding the AFL has had manageable losses in the last 2 covid-affected years, & NRL made profits).

As the difference in the Rights' differentials will be increasing, to the NRL's detriment, the AFL would, almost certainly, be investing more in NSW, ACT, & Qld.- which is very likely to increase support for the AFL & GR AF there.

I think in usual times this would be a big advantage but the collective bargaining agreement and the 18 AFLW clubs and those players asking for double the salary will extinguish any gains that would otherwise have been put into the development of gws and gc.
 

RedV3x

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As the difference in the Rights' differentials will be increasing, to the NRL's detriment,

As the difference in the Rights' differentials will possibly be increasing, to the NRL's detriment,
the AFL would, almost certainly, be investing more in NSW, ACT, & Qld.- which is very likely to increase support for the AFL & GR AF there.

Pure speculation.
Every time there is a cash "windfall" the AFLPA puts up it's hands.
I'd imagine that the AFL would be sticking to plan with Qld and NSW (whatever that is exactly I don't know)
Maybe the AFL would use the situation to admit Tasmania and a 20th team - there'd never be a better opportunity.
Even re-visit N.Z.
Personally, the AFL should look at grassroots football to underpin it's foundations.
 

BringBackTorps

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SMH R. Masters 6.5.22

Masters said

"Next year, there will be a 17th team, the Dolphins, with another 30 players to be drawn from that same pool...

So, with the available reserve of talent more than halved since 1996, it begs the question: where are the young talented players...

...The body of an NRL player today is a different shape to that of a quarter-century ago.
He may not be as inherently skilful but he is heavier, stronger and hence more powerful and probably faster. He is likely to be more athlete than footballer.

...In other words, Pasifika players now represent almost 50 per cent of a playing pool which has more than halved in the national competition since 1996.
The lack of skill of some of the bottom five NRL teams is a further reason the talent pool must be expanded.
All of which leads to the conclusion: when the NRL inevitably expands to 18 teams, the next franchise must be New Zealand-based...

ARLC chair Peter V’landys has said rugby league has exhausted all its revenue sources in Australia and must look to gambling revenue from the United States.
However, given the skill level of the bottom five NRL teams and the Dolphins’ drain of an increasingly shallow talent pool, the ARLC must prioritise increasing playing talent rather than revenue (Emphases, all mine)".




R. Masters (& about 20+ other MSM RL experts, as previously cited in this thread, & an eventual "Third Team in Sydney..." thread) believe there is insufficient skilled talent now in the NRL, for even 16 or 17 teams.
Masters also states c. 5 current NRL clubs have inadequate skill levels. He advocates that NZ should, eventually, be the 18th Club, to recruit much more sufficiently skilled NRL players.

Masters, therefore, implies:-

. the NRL has a long term, immutable, & major problem, re its GR male contact player nos. RL is unable, now & in the future, to produce sufficient nos. of elite, skilled players from its GR in Australia. "Waving the white flag" on the potential of GR male contact RL nos. in Aust.?

. RL, now & in the long term, is unable to seriously challenge AF, to obtain more NRL players, from elite GR jnr RL players in Vic., WA, SA, & Tas...

. the "safer option" for RL's inadequate nos. of GR male contact players/elite players is to challenge RU in NZ- & not AF in Vic., WA, SA, & Tas.
(But does RL really want to challenge RU in NZ!?; & is it likely it will be able to recruit vastly more elite RL players from there, & "hurt" RU?)

(Until 2019, Perth was the favourite for an expansion team. P. V'landys, however, in late 2019 stated, referring to NRL expansion options, that the NRL "should not waste funds on rusted-on AFL states".
This surprised many, since Perth is a wealthy city of 2.1m+, & WA mining industry generates massive profits- great for sponsors, corporate boxes etc. In comparison, NZ, outside of Auckland, is "tiny").

. by citing, & not challenging, P. V'landys' view that "RL has exhausted all its revenue sources in Australia", that the NRL, in the future, may have problems with its finances, from Australian-generated sources.

(Also, some say there is too much gambling being promoted in sport, in Australia- how prudent is it to rely heavily on gambling revenues, if an increasing backlash occurs?).
 
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RedV3x

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R. Masters (& about 20+ other MSM RL experts, as previously cited in this thread, & eventually a "Third Team in Sydney..." thread) believe there is insufficient skilled talent now in the NRL, for even 16 or 17 teams.
Masters also states c. 5 current NRL clubs have inadequate skill levels.

While lack of depth (emotively called "lack of talent") is an obvious long-time problem it can be papered over
with an even spread of talent. Spectators like an even contest and hate one-sided affairs.

Masters, therefore, infers:-

the NRL has a long term, immutable, & major problem, re its GR male contact player nos. RL is unable, now & in the future, to produce sufficient nos. of elite, skilled players from its GR in Australia. "Waving the white flag" on the potential of GR male contact RL nos. in Aust.?

RL, now & in the long term, is unable to seriously challenge AF, to obtain more NRL players, from elite GR jnr RL players in Vic., WA, SA, & Tas...

Whilst RL seems to having a problem with diminishing grassroots numbers that doesn't automatically mean anything for Australian Football
especially as the NRL has a ready source of overseas replacements,

P. V'landys, however, in late 2019 stated, referring to NRL expansion options, that the NRL "should not waste funds on rusted-on AFL states".

He cleverly used emotional language rather than state the obvious "should not waste funds on areas with no infrastructure"

This surprised many, since Perth is a wealthy city of 2.1m+, & WA mining industry generates massive profits- great for sponsors, corporate boxes etc. In comparison, NZ, outside of Auckland, is "tiny").

Huh ? You need people first and foremost to support a team.
 

Johnny Bananas

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The NRL could solve some of its problems by making some of its Sydney teams merge, relocate or drop down to state league level. But does it have the ability to do that anymore without a court case, given many teams are privately owned? Does it have the stomach to go there again? The problem is they didn't take enough of an axe to the Sydney teams in the 90s, and forced mergers that didn't make sense from either a fanbase perspective or a logistics perspective (Northern Eagles being by far the worst example, as it had both issues).
 

BringBackTorps

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In seeming corroboration of R. Masters' comments in post#1667 above, re inadequate skill levels (on average) in the NRL for even 16 teams, on 6.5.22 NRL CEO A. Abdo said

"There's no doubt New Zealand is an enormous market for us," he said. "Some of our best players in recent years have come from New Zealand and we're certainly committed to investing in the region and seeing more talent unlocked and emerge through pathways systems. New Zealand is a critical component of our competition," Abdo said.

"In particular, the commission is focused on innovative measures to enhance the pathways systems and it's something our clubs are focused on as well."

The NZ Herald journalist said

"Abdo has said previously that a 17th team would not be the end point for the league in his mind, with an 18th team making perfect sense; especially if it's based in New Zealand and drawing from a player pool largely outside of Australia where the Dolphins have found it difficult to build a squad (my emphases)".


A. Abdo also wants the NRL to benefit from, & exploit, the major RL (& RU!) recruiting ground potential of NZ.
It appears this is a further refelection of the NRL's etc. often-repeated concerns re the significant decline in its GR male contact RL nos.; & its concerns over the level of talent in the NRL/level of competitiveness now, even with just 16 teams.

Re the NRL 18 possibility, the Wellington or Canterbury options for NRL 18 are "tiny", cf Perth's 2.1m+ population, & general wealth of Perth; & the massive wealth of the WA mining industry. NZ & the Pacific Islands, however much more needed, & urgent, "recruiting wealth" for the NRL.



Also, "...as a good indication of NRL's intentions", & in further reinforcement of the primacy of NZ's elite recruitment potential, A. Abdo said in December 2021

“We will invest aggressively in New Zealand pathways and go head-to-head with rugby union.”


Interesting- the NRL prefers to challenge RU in NZ!
If the skill levels, on average, of NRL players continue to drop, what effect will this have on NRL crowds, ratings, MSM attention, & GR contact nos.?

Also, if NZ2 is chosen, it implies the NRL has almost "surrendered" in its willingness to challenge AF in WA- the more propitious, but "too hard" option.
 
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Seedsfan

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In seeming corroboration of R. Masters' comments in post#1667 above, re inadequate skill levels in the NRL for even 16 teams, on 6.5.22 NRL CEO A. Abdo said

"There's no doubt New Zealand is an enormous market for us," he said. "Some of our best players in recent years have come from New Zealand and we're certainly committed to investing in the region and seeing more talent unlocked and emerge through pathways systems. New Zealand is a critical component of our competition," Abdo said.

"In particular, the commission is focused on innovative measures to enhance the pathways systems and it's something our clubs are focused on as well."

The NZ Herald journalist said

"Abdo has said previously that a 17th team would not be the end point for the league in his mind, with an 18th team making perfect sense; especially if it's based in New Zealand and drawing from a player pool largely outside of Australia where the Dolphins have found it difficult to build a squad (my emphases)".


A. Abdo also wants the NRL to benefit from, & exploit, the major RL (&RU) recruiting ground potential of NZ.
It appears this is a further refelection ofthe NRL's etc. often-repeated concerns re the significant decline in its GR male contact RL nos.; & its concerns over the level of talent in the NRL now, with just 16 teams.

Re the NRL 18 possibility, the Wellington or Canterbury options for NRL 18 are "tiny", cf Perth's 2.1m+ population, & general wealth of Perth; & the massive wealth of the WA mining industry- but NZ, & the Pacific Islands, offer more needed "recruiting wealth" for the NRL.



Going to Perth would be problematic, they talk about mining wealth. Cool that’s not going to get a league side of the ground especially when one of the biggest miners in the town has a massive vested interest in union
 

BringBackTorps

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"AFLW players have had their pay almost doubled under a new one-season deal struck with the AFL.

Announced on Thursday, the deal covers the seventh season of the AFLW competition, which has been brought forward to start in late August.

It will feature 10 home-and-away rounds plus an expanded four-week finals series, culminating in the grand final on the last weekend of November.

Top-tier players will be paid $71,935, while the minimum AFLW wage will increase from $20,239 to $39,184.

The average increase across the four pay brackets is 94 per cent".





"AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan said the deal provided certainty for players and clubs and reflected the continued growth of women’s football across the country".

'The agreement represents a landmark improvement in pay for AFLW players and an historic level of investment in domestic women’s sport,' he said.

'(It) is a giant step forward in achieving our vision of ensuring AFLW players are the best-paid female athletes in any local professional competition by 2030 (A few Women's BBL players might be paid more, late 2022, than the highest AFLW player next season)'.

McLachlan added more than 40 players would earn more than $100,000 next season as a result of the $25.6 million investment the league has made in women’s footy (Words in brackets, & emphases, mine)".



These huge pay increases for AFLW players will appear very attractive to pre-teen, & teenage, female athletes in NSW & Qld.- & moreso, for elite, very athletic females of all ages.
They will see 540 mainly semi-pro positions (inc. some full time pro, +extra $ for some for marketing) in the AFLW, paying a total wages bill of $25.6m pa- easily the highest total bill for any female team sport that is played in Australia.

It can be expected that this huge increase, averaging 94%, will cause a significant increase in the no. of very young & teenage female athletes in NSW & Qld. deciding to play AF; &/or focus on AF. They would also realise that the length of the AFLW season is also certain to grow, thus providing further significant pay rises.

The main reason that people play any sport, of course, is that they enjoy that sport the most (having friends in that sport, & facilities nearby, are also very important).
 
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Bjo187

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Disagree, I'm sure that is the intention, but it wouldn't have even made the news in NSW and QLD. People will play what they see as 'popular' and the NRL's approach with less teams and therefore a better standard creates actual viewers and therefore revenue. Despite them spending only 2 million dollars in salaries, it will still be more appealing for girls there, even though the AFL is spending over 10x the amount on AFLW player wages.

The pay rises and overly fast expansion are sheer lunacy in my opinion and will be a long term issue the the new CEO will have to manage (thanks gill).
 

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Disagree, I'm sure that is the intention, but it wouldn't have even made the news in NSW and QLD. People will play what they see as 'popular' and the NRL's approach with less teams and therefore a better standard creates actual viewers and therefore revenue. Despite them spending only 2 million dollars in salaries, it will still be more appealing for girls there, even though the AFL is spending over 10x the amount on AFLW player wages.

The pay rises and overly fast expansion are sheer lunacy in my opinion and will be a long term issue the the new CEO will have to manage (thanks gill).
Very interesting comments in the first para. I think just to get the Women playing our game up there is an achievment considering the NRL is the long time entrenched code plus backed up by a media that gives it prominence.
Actually we -Aussie Rules- just want our share of the market up there and that share is still to be worked out.
 

BringBackTorps

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The Chinese Communist Party is seeking to gain much greater influence with Pacific Islands' nations, & is offering significant development aid etc. (& probably secret bribes for some snr govt. officials, its usual modus operandi).

A few days ago, its plan for a Regional Pacific Agreement, with stronger treaties, & promises of more Chinese aid etc., was delayed at a meeting of the Pacific Forum PI nations- as they want more time to consider China's proposals.
(The CCP, also, usually wants countries to only recognise diplomatically China, & reject Taiwan; & more diplomatic support for China in the UN).

The CCP has also signed a few weeks ago a bilateral "Security & Policing Agreement" with the Solomon Islands.
The Australian & US govts. are very fearful this will enable Chinese naval vessels etc. to establish a base there (but both the SI & the CCP deny bases are being planned- but many Western military experts state this is an ambition for the CCP).



It has been much publicised recently that Australia must become more influential in the Pacific, with more aid etc., to try to thwart the CCP's influence; & also increase Australia's cultural ties there ie Soft Power politics.

This Soft Power, probably, would also deliberately target stronger PNG & PI RL & RU relationships with Australia.


The Aust. govt helps fund now the Fijian Silktails' entry in the Ron Massey Cup (3rd tier, behind the NRL, & NSW Cup NRL Reserves).


The Aust. govt. is, also, currently funding GR RL in PNG- & also the PNG Hunters (who play in the Qld. Cup, the 2nd tier Qld. RL statewide comp.).


Diito Federal funding for the Fiji Drua, to enter Super Rugby etc.


Increasing the strength of RL & RU in PNG & the Pacific would also, indirectly, be very beneficial for elite RU & RL in Australia- ie more skilled Pasifika players here, improving the elite comps.

C.20+ RL experts, in recent years, in the MSM- linked in the Thread (Eventual) "Third Team in Sydney, It's Only A Matter of Time"- have stated there is insufficient depth in Australia for even 16 elite NRL clubs. Some cite specifically falling GR male contact RL nos. as the major problem.

Pasifika recruits are an elite "salvation" for the NRL & RA.
 
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