Analysis What constitutes a successful draft pick/draft haul?

[RedWhite&Blue]

My problem with missing out on Hannan and Long isn't directed at the club, its directed at the AFL. They should allow clubs who develop players the opportunity to match the selection at the draft, much the same as father/sons.

I'm not dissappointed in not getting Long and Hannan at all but I agree with your idea that a team should get dibs on a player that is playing in their 2's.
The VFL teams should be treated exactly like the academies interstate.

 

[Yojimbo]

Ben long went at 25 after we picked English and before Lipinski.

Hannan went at 46 right before we picked Lewis young.

What are we to do?

I understand your point that they were both taken earlier
than anticipated, my frustration is more that we did all
the ground work at VFL level and there is no way you
can lock them away unchallenged. I did a phantom last
year and did not take Long either. It would be nice with
the stand alone VFL team to sign at least two of the
best undrafted players from the current draft just to
keep an eye on them for the future.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Swings and roundabouts, we snatched Dicko from Essendon's VFL side Bendigo. Who can forget Hird's face, ah good times

 

[missionpossible]

I like the initial questions, what is a successful draft pick. Games played is the obvious guide but each club hands out 484 games to players each year (excluding finals) so there is an argument that just because you are getting games at GC it does not necessarily mean you are an afl quality footballer. Then you get a team like the hawks in 2015 the team is actually so strong that draft prospects struggle to get an opportunity and a lack of opportunity makes it harder for the draft pick to develop.
I think it comes down to a number of factors
1 - number of game - just purely because this it s the easiest to measure.
2 - the quality of those games. 50 games from Billy Hartung does not compare with 50 games from Bont
3 - what was available at where the pick was taken. It you have pick 40 and that player is a dud but only one of the next 30 has turned out to be any good then it is hard to say that was a bad pick. The opposite is also the case where a Toumpas may have played a few games but they are nothing like those taken around him.
4 - the courage of the pick, it is easy to have pick 4 and take the player ranked around pick 4 in the media (which is driven by the recruiting circle). The courage taken to back yourself in to take Bont at 4 when consensus says he is pick 10 should be taken into account. If it comes off you look very good if it fails like O'Rourke you look stupid.
5 - how much was the pick influenced by need, virtually every time you draft a tall you are leaving a mid on the table who is more likely to succeed

Luck v good management also comes into play when picking players like Dale Morris and Robbie Gray. However I am happy to go with the theory that the better you are the luckier you get though.

 

[iamthehunter]

Stringer simply cannot be called a success

To have a player with that much talent and not be able to reign him in is a failure

I would bet every cent I have if he was drafted by the hawks he would be at least a 2 x AA and in the best 20 players in the comp kicking minimum 50/60 goals a year.

Just like Gary Ablett senior

 

[TempletonTheRat]

I'm not dissappointed in not getting Long and Hannan at all but I agree with your idea that a team should get dibs on a player that is playing in their 2's.
The VFL teams should be treated exactly like the academies interstate.

so do Hawthorn get access to Box Hill? I'm pretty sure Hawthorn have no input to development of Box Hill players.

You cant give us access to our VFL players if it is not consistent for all teams.
Hawks, Melb, Saints, LolNorf dont have vfl teams

 

[dogwatch]

My problem with missing out on Hannan and Long isn't directed at the club, its directed at the AFL. They should allow clubs who develop players the opportunity to match the selection at the draft, much the same as father/sons.

The problem will be the newer franchises complaining that it tips the scales back towards traditional Vic clubs (who at one stage had a clear advantage with F/S picks, but it's hard to argue that now for clubs like Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and West Coast who have been around for 30 or more years - Brisbane and Sydney also retained f/s rights over Fitzroy and South Melb players).

One option might be a watered down version of f/s where another club can bid on the player and we would have to match using the points system but we don't get the discount of 10% (or whatever the discount is meant to be).

 

[Mattdougie]

Just like Gary Ablett senior

Yeah let’s compare players 30 years apart and Cleary Geelon didn’t control Ablett they just let him go as long as he played footy

Great comparison ...... not

 

[iamthehunter]

Yeah let’s compare players 30 years apart and Cleary Geelon didn’t control Ablett they just let him go as long as he played footy

Great comparison ...... not

Was not comparing players. It was in reference to your hawthorn comment

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The problem will be the newer franchises complaining that it tips the scales back towards traditional Vic clubs (who at one stage had a clear advantage with F/S picks, but it's hard to argue that now for clubs like Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and West Coast who have been around for 30 or more years - Brisbane and Sydney also retained f/s rights over Fitzroy and South Melb players).

One option might be a watered down version of f/s where another club can bid on the player and we would have to match using the points system but we don't get the discount of 10% (or whatever the discount is meant to be).

The problem is that the current list rules make absolutely no sense in how teams are constructed (ie list sizes of 45), as they are a relic from the circa 2000 rules when the AFL reserves were wound up and teams were given VFL affiliates with existing structures. The AFL is having an each way bet - making the lists big enough that teams can carry several players for development (and typically play an average of around 15 AFL-listed players in their reserves), but not so big that every player that plays for your VFL team is already on your AFL list. It wouldn't have been a problem if we had "drafted" Long or Hannan with a 11th round pick or whatever and given them a 1 year contract. There's no particular reason that a list size should be 45 as opposed to 55 or 60 players, given these players are being paid and training with AFL resources anyway.

 

[dogwatch]

The problem is that the current list rules make absolutely no sense in how teams are constructed (ie list sizes of 45), as they are a relic from the circa 2000 rules when the AFL reserves were wound up and teams were given VFL affiliates with existing structures. The AFL is having an each way bet - making the lists big enough that teams can carry several players for development (and typically play an average of around 15 AFL-listed players in their reserves), but not so big that every player that plays for your VFL team is already on your AFL list. It wouldn't have been a problem if we had "drafted" Long or Hannan with a 11th round pick or whatever and given them a 1 year contract. There's no particular reason that a list size should be 45 as opposed to 55 or 60 players, given these players are being paid and training with AFL resources anyway.

Maybe they don't want clubs to hoard players though.
AFLPA might even feel the same.

Less locking up of players might increase player flexibility, mobility and opportunity.

 

[flamethrower]

Successful draft....getting the best player in MLB, Mike Trout at pick 25. Grabbing Chris Grant at pick 105.

Dud draft....selecting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan, taking Ryan Leaf at pick 2 in the NFL draft, or drafting Len Bias.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

so do Hawthorn get access to Box Hill? I'm pretty sure Hawthorn have no input to development of Box Hill players.

You cant give us access to our VFL players if it is not consistent for all teams.
Hawks, Melb, Saints, LolNorf dont have vfl teams

Yea, would only work if every team controlled their 2's (or VFL aligned team).